October 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

On the met.ie website, under latest reports, you'll find Agricultural Data. This section gives you the seven-day averages or totals that I use to derive the weekly reports. Their reports are for the previous seven days, so I have to remember to look on the 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th of each month, get the four weeks as they come up, and then I average the values moving forward. I check the IMT values against "monthly data" in the past weather section. The question you raised about temperature anomaly was correctly answered by omicron and my source for that is in the table of agr-data.

There are always going to be small rounding errors working through the data so my estimates towards the end of each month may be slightly off. This is now my only source of sunshine percentages since the MS changed their reporting from percentages to total hours. But I can cross-check things against 1981-2010 normals which are contained in yet another portion of the website.

pauldry

That bonus with wind could be void at this rate

Light winds even when unsettled and with Easterly near end of month highest gust may only be 30 or 40knots

Rain looks broke too even though Valencia is carrying the country

Tae laidir

Sherkin Island gusted 36 knots yesterday.

My forecast is becalmed and in the doldrums!

M.T. Cranium

A new MIN observed on 11th

--0.5 C at Mountdillon

Would not worry about the gust max, something will happen towards end of the month. Raging Pacific jet is bound to shake things up a little.

I am looking at charts where a gust max of 80-90 knots is quite possible close to home here on Saturday, remnants of a Pacific typhoon heading in at 957 mbs. Calm outside this morning however.

pauldry

Dont need 80 just 65

N god forbid some rain

Only 3mm on my raingauge this month so far
in the NorthWETS

M.T. Cranium

Tumbleweed yet?

M.T. Cranium

After 14 days ...

IMT 10.7 C after a cool week (9.9 deg C, 0.9 below average for the period).

PRC was 52% for the first two weeks, with the second week only 34%, the average however is no doubt climbing rapidly after a wet day on 15th at some stations and further rain today.

SUN now at 103% after a week that averaged 89%, oddly Shannon was much cloudier than the other five locations.

M.T. Cranium

46 knot gust at Sherkin Island on 16th.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT 10.4 after a somewhat cool week at 9.8 (0.3 below normal).

PRC has risen to 66% of normal, the past week being quite average (94%).

SUN is now 106% thanks to a fairly sunny week (113%).

Nothing new to report on Max, Min or max gust.

Looking at further output, would expect a finish something like this:

10.5 _ 18.5 _ --2.5 _ 060 _ 110 _ 50 (scores would be basically in order from low to high)

pauldry

Such a quiet month here in the West.

Only about 25% rainfall n very little wind

Im screwed in forecast thing now.

pauldry

Minus 2 in markree at 7am

Minus 3 in car around collooney at 715am

New low for sure

Just a heatwave n a storm with 100mm of rain needed now n ill be sorted for October

M.T. Cranium

--2.5 C at Markree on 25th.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT remains on 10.4, the past week averaged 10.3 (0.9 above normal). This looks like finishing around 10.6.

PRC has fallen to 52% of normal, as the week was quite dry (11% of normal) -- this will probably finish close to 50%. Don't panic, minimum progression will inflate the raw scores.

SUN is very close to 100% now after a somewhat dull week (the east in particular) that averaged 82.5%. This may finish around 98%.

Keeping an eye on the rather mild temperatures but so far nothing new to report on MAX (or MIN).

November thread is open and can be found in the pinned threads section.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was 10.5, PRC was 47% requiring minimum progression and sunshine 100%. MS confirmed the MAX and MIN values shown in the scoring table (18.3, --2.5) and the max wind gust of 46 knots, however, this occurred on two occasions, Sherkin on 16th as I had noted, but also Malin Head on 3rd. A check of forecasts showed that only one entry (Joe Public) improved their date error and therefore had a higher score than shown, all other scores are confirmed as a result. The table is now final.

Confirmed scores for October 2016

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus (max gust)

___Estimated values _ 10.5_18.3_--2.5_050_100__46 kn_3,16 __ TOTAL SCORE



john mac ___________20 _ 17*_ 19 _ 10*_ 09 ___ 3+5 _______ 83
Rameire ___ (-2) ____ 21 _ 15*_ 16 _ 14*_ 06 ___ 5+4+1 __82-2=80
dasa29 ____________ 25 _ 13*_ 15 _ 11*_ 09 ___ 1+4 _______ 78

Con Sensus _________22 _ 10*_ 19 _ 09*_ 10 ___ 3+4 _______ 77

Lumi ______________ 23 _ 13*_ 16 _ 09*_ 08 ___ 2+5 _______ 76
Dacogawa __________ 23 _ 10*_ 16 _ 12*_ 08 ___ 3+2 _______ 74
Bsal _______________24 _ 15*_ 15 _ 01*_ 10 ___ 4+4 _______ 73
sryanbruen _________ 16 _ 16*_ 09 _ 15*_ 08 ___ 5+3 _______ 72
Rikand _____________20 _ 16*_ 15 _ 11*_ 06 ___ 2+1 _______ 71
Sunflower3 _________ 22 _ 18*_ 14 _ 04*_ 09 ___ 2+2 _______ 71
DOCARCH __________ 24 _ 02*_ 17 _ 11*_ 09 ___ 4+4 _______ 71
Joe Public __________ 11 _ 13*_ 16 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 5+5+2 _____ 70

Tae laidir ___________21 _ 08*_ 20 _ 01*_ 09 ___ 5+4+1 _____ 69
mickger844posts _____21 _ 07*_ 14 _ 13*_ 07 ___ 3+3 _______ 68
Kindred Spirit _______ 23 _ 13*_ 15 _ 02*_ 08 ___ 2+3 _______ 66
MrSkinner __________ 18 _ 05*_ 17 _ 07*_ 10 ___ 4+4 _______ 65

Norma L ___________ 21 _ 06*_ 10 _ 09*_ 10 ___ 5+3 _______ 64

M.T. Cranium _______ 20 _ 01*_ 18 _ 13*_ 08 ___ 2+1 _______ 63
Jd ________________ 22 _ 03*_ 17 _ 05*_ 08 ___ 3+4 _______ 62
Pauldry ____________ 24 _ 10*_ 14 _ 00*_ 09 ___ 2+1 _______ 60

Jpmarn ____________ 21 _ 00 _ 19 _ 07*_ 01 ___ 5+4+1 _____ 58
waterways __________21 _ 06*_ 15 _ 01*_ 09 ___ 2+3 _______ 57

200motels __ (-42) ___22 _ 15*_ 06 _ 14*_ 10 ___ 5+5+2 _ 79-42=37

______________________________________________________

* minimum progression applied to MAX and PRC

The 42 point late penalty for 200motels seemed a bit harsh until I realized that other contests have somewhat harsher percentage drops, so maybe 50% would have been deducted and that turns out to be the same thing in this case thanks to the inflated scoring from minimum progression.

So in general a rather high scoring month for most, and congrats to John mac, Rameire and dasa29 who managed to beat Con Sensus.

Now that scores are confirmed I will work on the annual scoring update.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update Jan to Oct 2016

The table is now based on best 8 of 10 (last month it was best 8 of 9) so your ranking score improves slightly unless October was lowest or second lowest score you have so far, in which case your ranking score remains the same. Of course your total score for all ten months increases by the full amount of October (last column with ranking).

best 8 of 10 ___________________________________________________________ all ten

rank/score_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)


01 572 _ Con Sensus ___ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 _ 77 __ 694 (1)

01 567 sunflower3 _____ 72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 _ 71 __ 671 (2)
t 2 566 Lumi __________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 _ 76 __ 669 (3)
t 2 566 mickger844posts_78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ 68 __ 605 (13)
04 558 MrSkinner_______83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 _ 65 __ 674 (1)
t 5 556 waterways______75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 _ 57 __ 663 (4)
t 5 556 sryanbruen _____27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 _ 72 __ 635 (7)
07 544 Tae laidir _______86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 _ 69 __ 637 (6)
08 536 Rameire ________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 _ 80 __ 650 (5)
09 532 Dacogawa ______52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 _ 74 __ 631 (8)
10 531 DOCARCH ______53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 _ 71 __ 630 (9)

11 526 Joe Public ______ 28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 _ 70 __ 603 (14)
12 517 Jpmarn ________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 _ 58 __ 601 (15)

13 516 Norma L _______ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 _ 64 __ 614 (11)

13 515 Rikand _________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 _ 71 __ 608 (12)
14 514 JD_____________69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 _ 62 __ 591 (18t)
15 513 Dasa29 ________ 66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 _ 78 __ 615 (10)
16 512 Bsal ___________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 _ 73 __ 609 (11)
17 511 John mac _______72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 _ 83 __ 591 (18t)
18 508 200motels ______46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 _ 37 __ 567 (20)
19 506 Pauldry_________53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 _ 60 __ 596 (16)
20 503 M.T. Cranium ___ 46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 _ 63 __ 594 (17)


21 498 kindredspirit ____--- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 _ 66 __ 533 (21)
22 ___ lostinashford ___ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 389
23 ___ Schadenfreudia _ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 260
24 ___ omicron _______ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 191
25 ___ Carnacalla _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 _ --- _ 52 _ --- __ 157
26 ___ Timmyboy _____ --- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 53
27 ___ Elmer Blooker __ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 51
______________________________________________________________

So the top six are now very closely bunched with another five or so not very far behind in the best 8 of 10 section. Let's hope some of us can catch Con Sensus in these last two months.