Hurricane Matthew

star gazer

Heading North West (325 degrees) at 19km/h with Max sustained winds 195km/h (120mph) and minimum central pressure 962mb. It could come very close to the Florida coast (and making landfall is a real possiblity).

As hatrickpatrick shows some forecasts are indicating it could loop back around in the following days.



Tropical storm Nicole looks like hanging around for a while.

hatrickpatrick

Jeff Masters weighing in, says it's the first time since 2005 that a bizarre storm track has driven him to f-bombs
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-matthew-reorganizing-over-the-bahamas-major-shift-in-longr

Itssoeasy

I've a question for ye fine folks of the weather forum. The picture above shows that the time of 8am Friday. Would I be right in thinking that florida will feel the affects of the hurricane long before that point on Friday morning us time ? What I mean it's not a case of Friday morning arriving and it goes from flat Calm sunshine to hurricane winds and the proverbial hitting the fan.

star gazer

Overnight tonight, tomorrow morning Southeast Florida should feel the first effects.
Miami

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA STARTING THURSDAY MORNING WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE BANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
POTENTIALLY STARTING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE WINDOW OF
CONCERN CONTINUING THROUGH SOMETIME FRIDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BROWARD COUNTY, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY, HURRICANE CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AT THIS TIME EITHER.

As you can see the storm is much more than just it's centre, currently Hurricane force winds are as far out as 75km from the centre with tropical storm force winds as far out as 280km from the centre.

ronnie3585

Mike's Weather Page has been providing very good coverage of this storm since its birth last week - https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED&fref=nf

star gazer

It's a tough day for the Central and North Western Bahamas.
Forecast shows there'll be hurricane force winds along much of the East Florida coast starting from about late Thursday, how far inland depends on the ultimate track with a good chance the centre will touch land. Hurricane Matthew is expected to strengthen again from max sustained winds now of 205 km/h (125mph) in the next day or so.
Minimum central pressure has fallen again to 944mb. Moving Northwest (320 degrees) at 19km/h.

Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Savannah River to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Rainfall total public advisory 33

Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches

Model showing predicted path later Thursday and into Friday. The eyewall may reach the coast if that is accurate. Winds due to reach 145mph by early Friday morning (Florida time).

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/783952401095155712

star gazer

"...HURRICANE MATTHEW RELENTLESSLY POUNDING THE BAHAMAS...
...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA..." Public Advisory 34A
Minimum central pressure now down to 939mb, Category 4 max sustained wind speeds of 220km/h (145mph) moving at 22km/h.

This storm has caused several dozen fatalities in Haiti and elsewhere and it's forecast to bring extensive damage particularly on a long stretch of Atlantic coastline with a lot of waterfront properties from Southern Florida through Georgia and on to South Carolina at least. Millions have been evacuating coastal areas. It's a very real threat that this Hurricane could adjust course slightly and make catatstrophic landfall. But going along the coastline could see it do terrible damage more spread out. Some models have it looping back to Florida, others pushing East into the Atlantic after skirting from a distance the Southern coast of North Carolina.
As most probably already know, higher up, stronger winds:

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

dexter647

Some great webcams here folks

http://www.earthcam.com/events/extremeweather/

HighLine

Great image of Matthew along with the now hurricane Nicole

M.T. Cranium

Here are two links you might want to follow:

Wind sensor west of Freeport, Bahamas likely to take a direct hit from eye by 23z

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

Miami radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

to see animation, click on "loop" in control panel (composite is recommended)

The eye is already on this radar. The island with the wind sensor is now just north of the eye.

Rougies

Live footage of eye passing over Freeport, Bahamas right now. Holy **** :O

https://www.facebook.com/Dr.drikz/videos/vb.100000560747283/1448262548535756/?type=3&theater

EDIT: She just stopped streaming but you should be able to watch the replay in a while.

irishgeo

some more cams here although some are down.

http://surfinggator.com/Daytona/Cams/cams.html

Rougies

Another facebook stream from Freeport. Good quality, I think it's a storm chaser.

https://www.facebook.com/james.rose.12327/videos/vb.516264910/10154586868414911/?type=3&theater

irishgeo

be interesting to see if this pier is still standing later although id say the cam will go first.

http://www.ronjonsurfshop.com/SurfReport.aspx?ReportId=2

Itssoeasy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpTsEAKDBpQ

This is fox10 in Phoenix but they are streaming live coverage of the hurricane. Good quality picture.

jds0ur

interesting live feed from Bimini https://www.facebook.com/marvinrzgibson/videos/10154463066521877/

jds0ur

Stream from Florida https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrSOBsuHlnM

jds0ur

Presume this aircraft is monitoring the hurricane https://fr24.com/NOAA43/b3aaa66

star gazer

There's a lot of impact potential with this hurricane on top of the wind strength of a Category 4 Hurricane.
Water level rises:

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach, Florida...1 to 3 ft

Deerfield beach is just above Fort Lauderdale. Sebastian inlet is about 140km North of West Palm Beach.

The Kennedy Space Centre is just East of Orlando and it could be very close to the track of the centre of the Hurricane or even be impacted by it.

The rainfall projection totals also went up a bit recently "Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina....5 to 10 inches, isolated 12 inches"

Coastal Miami advisory

STORM SURGE COULD RESULT IN SOME VULNERABLE, LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST HAVING INUNDATION OF 3 TO 5 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE WATER LEVELS ARE MOST LIKELY NEAR TIME OF
HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BumperD

108 killed in Haiti

JCX BXC

Wind in Miami is 15kts gusting 27kts, just a little breezy (very heavy rain though)

All flights cancelled strangely enough, storm hasn't arrived yet!

Itssoeasy

BBC news are reporting that the Haitian government are reporting that the death toll has risen to 264.

RobertKK

Seems all that building work after the earthquake in Haiti was not great, also the mobile phone system has failed.
80% of homes damaged.
No electricity, no banks because they need electricity, running out of food, problem with a lack of clean water.
Talk of water borne diseases occurring.
A real disaster in Haiti yet again.

RobertKK

Matthew in the comings days when it loops back into the Atlantic before going for round two with Florida could merge with hurricane Nicole.

MJohnston

Interesting that this is essentially the first major hurricane to hit the US since the advent of social media - huge amount of video and photo media out there already

BumperD

I've heard reports that the Bahamas was fairly shredded

BumperD

Northern Florida have not been hit by a storm like this in over 100 years. Trees, buildings etc are going to be tested for the first time in a long time.

bnt

My friends in Jacksonville evacuated yesterday, but not far - to a colleague's house further inland, still in the city. The house they built in 2014 is on the Broward River, a good way inland from the sea with small tides, and it's on ground about 10 ft above river level, so it's probably safe from storm surge. It's nearly surrounded by trees, which will dissipate the wind, assuming they stay standing. The soil there is rather sandy and might be weakened by the rain before the wind arrives. They're currently trying to sell it, so they really don't need it to get damaged, even if the cost is insured in full. Compared to Haiti, these are "first world problems", I suppose.

josip

bnt wrote: »

My friends in Jacksonville evacuated yesterday, but not far - to a colleague's house further inland, still in the city. The house they built in 2014 is on the Broward River, a good way inland from the sea with small tides, and it's on ground about 10 ft above river level, so it's probably safe from storm surge. It's nearly surrounded by trees, which will dissipate the wind, assuming they stay standing. The soil there is rather sandy and might be weakened by the rain before the wind arrives. They're currently trying to sell it, so they really don't need it to get damaged, even if the cost is insured in full. Compared to Haiti, these are "first world problems", I suppose.

Good idea to evac. Although the Broward would be a good way inland it's still at high risk from the surge.
http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/SURGE/SURGE_DUVAL.pdf
The seafloor topography off Jacksonville favours higher surges than waves and with Matthew running along the coast it will have plenty of shallow water to build up a surge.
It will be a very oblique approach to the John's river estuary however and I guess a lot will depend on how quickly it's moving, the faster the better.