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nacho libre

Klitschko Points

walshb wrote: »

Corrie Sanders, who??? Decimated Wlad......A big enough lad who got to Wlad's chin and wasn't afraid to get to it. Took Wlad out. Others also got to the chin. None IMO are as dangerous as a 6 feet 6 inch 240+ lbs AJ!

... that was before Manny took over, as we all know Wlad became a much better boxer thereafter. Wlad is far harder hit now, even if he is past peak, i will be shocked if Joshua is able to land easily on Wlad, as he was against Martin and Breazeale. Yet, if he does land something half decent i do think Wlad will go, but i think Wlad will frustrate Joshua, and unlike Whyte, if he hurts Joshua he will finish him.

For the record if i'm wrong, if Joshua is able to land flush shots easily, i will not use the excuse Wlad was past it. I bet if Wlad wins though, you will be saying this is heavyweight boxing, so Wlad winning is not surprise - it won't be that credit is due to Wlad:D

walshb

Joshua Points

nacho, I detailed earlier how Wlad can win. It would be no surprise at all. I would be a little surprised if Wlad got a clean kind of KO win. He can win on points or accumulation stoppage. The whole "it's HW boxing" would apply to Wlad getting a clean kind of KO. I think that is less likely for him. AJ is the one getting the clean KO kind of win.

nacho libre

Klitschko Points

walshb wrote: »

nacho, I detailed earlier how Wlad can win. It would be no surprise at all. I would be a little surprised if Wlad got a clean kind of KO win.

It would not surprise me if he got a clean ko. Whyte hurt Joshua, Wlad, who hits a lot harder than him, can stop him with a couple of big clean shots.Also we need to take into consideration that Joshua has little to no head movement. You can get away with that against poor opposition, namely Martin and Molina, but not against a top tier opponent. You maybe right Joshua's power might get him out of trouble against wlad, but I am leaning towards a Wlad stoppage.

walshb

Joshua Points

Hate to keep on harping on here. But will Wlad throw the kind of shot that Whyte threw? Perfect, on the button shot. You cannot know Wlad hits so much harder, and even if, Wlad throws more straight power shots. Whyte's peach was a left hook that landed clean. Joshua did very well to take it and stay upright, and recover quickly. I just don't see Wlad's delivery doing the trick. Accumulation? Yes. One or two? Unlikely.

Burial.

Klitschko Points

The Pulev left hooks come to mind.

Morrison J

Klitschko Points

If you watched AJ in the amateurs there's definitely far more evidence of glass in that jaw then there is a fighter who takes a shot very well.

walshb

Joshua Points

Burial. wrote: »

The Pulev left hooks come to mind.

Kind of. More a distance type rangy left hook..Didn't generate the same torque and turnover that Whyte generated.

nacho libre

Klitschko Points

walshb wrote: »

Hate to keep on harping on here. But will Wlad throw the kind of shot that Whyte threw? Perfect, on the button shot. You cannot know Wlad hits so much harder, and even if, Wlad throws more straight power shots. Whyte's peach was a left hook that landed clean. Joshua did very well to take it and stay upright, and recover quickly. I just don't see Wlad's delivery doing the trick. Accumulation? Yes. One or two? Unlikely.

He doesn't need to.
Wlad is one the hardest hitters in the modern era. Whyte's punch was a good one, but it was one off and he did not have the skill to follow it up. As well as that Whyte does not generate the same power as Wlad consistently. Watching back over Wlad's career, you'll see he cream crackered opponents with seemingly innocuous punches that didn't necessarily land flush/on the button.

Burial.

Klitschko Points

walshb wrote: »

Kind of. More a distance type rangy left hook..Didn't generate the same torque and turnover that Whyte generated.

Well Whyte has much shorter reach than Wlad, so need to get in there close...and Pulev and Joshua share some traits in size and zilch head movement. Agree on torque alright.

walshb

Joshua Points

Burial. wrote: »

Well Whyte has much shorter reach than Wlad, so need to get in there close...and Pulev and Joshua share some traits in size and zilch head movement. Agree on torque alright.

Can't know for sure but I'd bet Whyte's shot had a little more zip on it than Wlad's.

Wlad's best chance of a clean type KO is a straight/slightly hook type right cross as Joshua moves in. Around the side of face-head and who knows..

I just have visions of Wlad fighting scared, moving, pawing and doing his absolute best to keep range. If he can keep range and not allow AJ an offensive rhythm, he could get a win.

The main question for me that could decide the fight is can Wlad hurt/discourage AJ with his punches? Maybe a few years ago, yes. Now? Not at all confident.

Morrison J

Klitschko Points

pac_man wrote: »

Intrigued by this. Can you provide some examples?

I remember this being worse than it is tbf but if this happens against any of the elite heavyweights today he's being finished off.

I also don't by the Whyte shot as being a case of great recovery by Joshua. A case of Whyte not being cool enough to pick his shots to finish him. Again, a elite heavyweight finishes the fight in that position.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8LqwBr9jcY

walshb

Joshua Points

The amateur examples are odd to me....Not sure how young and immature, not fully developed HW getting stopped on his feet really says about his him now as a mature 240 lber!

nacho libre

Klitschko Points

walshb wrote: »

The amateur examples are odd to me....Not sure how young and immature, not fully developed HW getting stopped on his feet really says about his him now as a mature 240 lber!

You obviously don't give substance to the rumours he has being wobbled once, and knocked out by different sparring partners in training for this fight. Tellingly, when asked about it, he didn't deny it took place. It might have no relevance to the fight outcome, but If Wlad does hurt him, he will finish Joshua

walshb

Joshua Points

nacho libre wrote: »

You obviously don't give substance to the rumours he has being wobbled once, and knocked out by different sparring partners in training for this fight. Tellingly, when asked about it, he didn't deny it took place. It might have no relevance to the fight outcome, but If Wlad does hurt him, he will finish Joshua

Either way I am not naive enough to think that there are men out there who cannot be hurt/wobbled or knocked out. AJ is just a man. His chin for me to date seems to have held up, even if at pro level it has barely been touched. I saw plenty of heavy whacks in the amateur game for me to think he has a decent beard. No man's chin is un-den-table.

All this talk has come from one single shot (Whyte) he took that hit him flush and clean. He took it. That is the key. Took it well and fired back.

So, in a nutshell, at HW level whether it be sparring or fighting there will always be a risk that ANY man can be hurt/wobbled or knocked out.

One final thing, without knowing for certain, but I think AJs chin will react better than Wlad's should both connect with their power punches clean.

Too Tough To Die

Klitschko Points

walshb wrote: »

All this talk has come from one single shot (Whyte) he took that hit him flush and clean. He took it. That is the key. Took it well and fired back.

He didn't take it well. That is the key. Whyte doesn't appear to be much of a puncher beyond English level and he stiffened AJ's legs from a punch that didn't look to have a whole lot on it.

nacho libre

Klitschko Points

walshb wrote: »

All this talk has come from one single shot (Whyte) he took that hit him flush and clean. He took it. That is the key. Took it well and fired back.

So, in a nutshell, at HW level whether it be sparring or fighting there will always be a risk that ANY man can be hurt/wobbled or knocked out.

One final thing, without knowing for certain, but I think AJs chin will react better than Wlad's should both connect with their power punches clean.

But some men you will agree have a higher likelihood of being knocked out even without being hit flush.
I would agree AJ has a better chin than Wlad, but as has been show in the amateurs, and by Whyte, it's not all that great.

The reason it has largely been untouched is the level of opposition thus far.

Whyte, who is fringe world level, did hurt him, but had not the skill to stop him. If Wlad outboxes Joshua, as i anticipate, Joshua will be stopped, that's the difference about levels. He won't get away with his poor head movement at the top level. Power will get you out of trouble against mediocre opposition, against the elite you need more than that.

boxer.fan

Any chance this could end up a stinker?

walshb

Joshua Points

Too Tough To Die wrote: »

He didn't take it well. That is the key. Whyte doesn't appear to be much of a puncher beyond English level and he stiffened AJ's legs from a punch that didn't look to have a whole lot on it.

So what defines taking it well? It bouncing off his head and him snarling?

walshb

Joshua Points

I went and watched the shot again. Within 5 seconds AJ was on the ropes lucid and clear thinking. To say he didn't take a very flush shot well is ridiculous, unless you really believe the shot to have little on it. To think that is silly. The shot was a peach, that had a lot of momentum in it.

Burial.

Klitschko Points

Like talking to the wall, Jesus

Too Tough To Die

Klitschko Points

walshb wrote: »

So what defines taking it well? It bouncing off his head and him snarling?

If your position is that he has a dodgy chin, then yes he took it well. If you believe he has a good chin, then he didn't take it well. All about expectations i guess, but for me it set off alarm bells. No wonder Hearn was terrified of putting him in with Haye. He probably regrets that in hindsight.

walshb

Joshua Points

Well, take Ali and Tyson. Two men with solid chins. Both rocked several times in their careers by certain delivered punches.

I have never said that AJ has a great chin. The jury's still put. I'm just not ready to label it not great, or weak based off the Whyte shot. To do so is both premature and stupid.

Blanco100

walshb wrote: »

Because you yourself have touched on it. He is the polar opposite of Vitali, and against men like AJ I think Wlad always gets exposed. Big hitters who are big and who come to hit.

Corrie Sanders, who??? Decimated Wlad......A big enough lad who got to Wlad's chin and wasn't afraid to get to it. Took Wlad out. Others also got to the chin. None IMO are as dangerous as a 6 feet 6 inch 240+ lbs AJ!

Corrie Sanders knocked him out nearly 15 years ago.

On one hands it unfair to call AJ's chin into question for being stopped as an amateur 5 years ago. But on the the other its completely fair game to bring up a KO defeat the Wlad suffered nearly 15 years ago as evidence he will be stopped.

I'm not for one second stating Wlad has a great chin, he doesn't. But he has had a top class career avoiding being tagged clean in heavyweight title fights over the last 15 years where has seen off all of the challengers more or less, not that there have been too many world beaters.

Even in the fight with Fury he avoided being tagged by a bigger man and lost a points decision. For Fury to have engaged Wlad and land heavy shots he would have had to eat some leather himself and he wasn't prepared to run the risk of getting more than likely KO'd, so he boxed him from range.

Now for AJ to land his shots (like has against alot of the second rate fighters he has fought where barely anything has been coming back) he is going to have to take some too. So in my opinion right from the off AJ is going to have to be more cautious in his approach. I'd imagine one stiff jab will automatically have AJ's respect such is Wlad power. Which is unquestionable given some of the KO's he has inflicted with seemingly innocuous shots.

Again i'll stress, Wlad has far more experience and know how of how to protect that supposedly suspect chin of his, he is a vastly different fighter now. Does AJ have the same tools to keep out of harms way whilst also being able to balance that with providing sufficient offence he will need to win? And thats what it will come down to. Does AJ the fighter have different dimensions to him? It will be curtains for him if he employs his usual tactics of walking forward with no head movement.

Its a fascinating fight and fair play to Joshua for taking this on. It would have been alot easier for him to sit back and watch Wlad take on Parker for instance and fight the leftovers. I think Klitschko really fancies his chances here aswell, he has always championed Joshua as the next heavyweight big thing, when he himself hangs them up.

I think Wlad stops him somewhere between 9-12 rounds

MotherTeresa

Draw

Honestly I think with their height/weight/reach match up's I think this will come down to youth v age, 27 v 41.
Its as simple as that really. Granted Klitschko has more experience, and skill. But from round 7 or 8 when both tire; it will be the young man v the old man. Other factors like home crowd of 90K, plus Hearn possibly having bunged the judges; will mean a points win or TKO for Joshua being likely. I can see this as Klitschko's last fight before retiring.
The UK media are really taking to Joshua, they see him as the new Bruno or Lewis.
He ticks all the boxes, reformed drug dealer, Olympic champion, now clean cut world champion.
Never underestimate the dark arts of Hearn and the media when it comes to referees and judges.
Joshua will be his cash cow for years if he can maintain that unbeaten clean sheet. And let's face it, Hearn will stop at nothing to get those Mayweather pay-per-view levels.
I expect to see lots of 113-112 type scores after a 12 round grind.

Burial.

Klitschko Points

If anyone is gassing it's Joshua. A f*ck tonne of muscle and a guy who's never gone 12 versus a calm veteran whos always been in prime shape for prize fighting, not a bloated bodybuilder. Wlad was guilty of having too much mass back in the days too and learned from gassing hard by changing his training as well as as his boxing style. If anything he'll relish dragging Joshua into deep rounds. I saw a recent pic of Joshua and it looks like his neck has doubled in size. Must be preparing for the cannon jab.

MotherTeresa

Draw

They are the same height and weight (same muscular build).
Agreed his neck looks thicker, and he looks his heaviest ever too.
The weigh in will be interesting.
I wouldn't think having more muscle (and greater oxygen demand) will be such a detrimental factor.
Reason being, Joshua has been training in a altitude mask so he has the stamina with reduced oxygen supply.
27 year old muscle v 41 year old muscle is what it comes down to; not who has an extra 5kg of muscle mass on the same frame.
Judges will be scoring those first 5-7 rounds before either gas based on aggression v defense.
And 7 rounds of 113-112 type points results is what it takes to win on points decision.
Say Joshua does gas round 7-12, Klitschko will be just as tired due to his age. So say they are both even 7-12.
What wins it, is who was aggressive and on the attack 1-7. Klitschko's hold and push down technique isn't going to win the points that Joshua's work rate and throwing punches does (even with a low connection/accuracy rate).
The man that throws the most punches will win this, not the man who blocks the most.
Say they both gas from round 7, they will both be grabbing and holding to conserve energy to 12 anyway. But in close Joshua is the danger as he can uppercut and jab with power on the break with knockout results.
Klitschko on the other hand needs his range to generate the power of his jab, and he can't do that holding all the time.
Opening on the counter leaves him vulnerable to a Joshuas connection and he won't risk it.
Honestly I see 12 rounds of guard up defensive hold and lean from Klitschko; same as v Fury.
Joshua may not have the skill or head movement, or footwork; but he will have power and aggression coming forward all the way through and that means points.

nacho libre

Klitschko Points

MotherTeresa wrote: »

Joshua may not have the skill or head movement, or footwork; but he will have power and aggression coming forward all the way through and that means points.

His power and aggression is not much use if he is eating stiff jabs that will keep him at range. If he is coming forward with no head movement that's going to happen. If Joshua can't emulate what Fury did, and i don't think he has the skill to do it, Wlad will become more confident.
I can see Joshua being exposed in this fight. Joshua's only hope is if the long absence from the ring has been detrimental to Klitschko's reflexes.

MotherTeresa

Draw

You make a good point about Klitschko's 15 month break between fights. For a 30 year old boxer it wouldn't be detrimental, but for a 41 year old; keeping active is very important. OK Klitschko is never out of shape, but sparring and training isn't the same as fighting 12 rounds. I think the age, plus lack of activity with both be major negatives. I noticed his timing and reflexes against Fury just weren't as sharp as he used to be say 5 years ago. A boxer needs to fight regularly to keep those sharp; but he is fighting age on this too; even if he had kept active. The other factor is coming off a loss. Despite what he says about making him hungry as the underdog etc, it will have knocked his confidence mentally. Joshua on the other hand is peaking just at the right time. Active at 27, and improving with experience in every fight. Whyte was his only real test so far, but it showed he can get hit and carry on. Looking at the muscle build up on his neck, I think he is preparing for this from Klitschko. He knows to get within jabbing and hook connection range, he will have to get in close and counter punch when Klitschko is open.
Just to clarify my position; I was a Klitschko fan until the Fury fight; when I did my balls in lumping on Klitschko to be honest.
If he was 30 and facing Joshua at 27 I would back Klitschko to win on points.
But at 41? I have to back youth v age. I don't know if Joshua can go 12 rounds slugging like Whyte v Chisora? No one does yet. But I think as he is the same size/reach/height as Klitschko; then his usual hold and push down technique won't work with Joshua.
Maybe he will let his jab go earlier on in the rounds, but every time he does he leaves himself open to a counter from Joshua; and I do see his power as a threat; if he can connect cleanly.
I think the home crowd of 90K will also be a mental factor for Joshua. Imagine having 90K cheering for you?
That is going to really rev up Joshua, and if anything eat away at Klitschko if he is booed all night for holding and pushing.
Honestly I think this will be similar to the Fury fight. OK Joshua doesn't have his footwork, nor awkward style switching southpaw/orthodox etc. But Joshua can throw powerful hooks and jabs that is for certain. So Klitschko is in real danger of TKO if any one of them connects clean.

Morrison J

Klitschko Points

Interesting listen this, interview with Dave Allen.

Talks about his spars with Joshua. Doesn't rate him massively. Thinks Wlad beats him comfortably in a round or two and says Fury would beat him with one hand behind his back. Hints at the fact that Joshua is chinny too. Says he's not world class.

Compares Dubois to Frank Bruno as well.

Comes on at 22.45 mins in.

walshb

Joshua Points

It's an intriguing fight. AJ is by no means a certainty. His chin still has to be truly tested, The question is can Wlad actually test it with leather, or will Wlad swipe and paw and try to win via being cute and awkward?

If I were Wald's coach I would be telling him that the cute and awkward approach is too risky, and that he should throw the kitchen sink at AJ early. He might just surprise himself. If AJ can take Wlad's best then I have to side with AJ via KO. I think AJ will take a better shot.