Philippine Leader Duterte Ditches U.S. for China, Says 'America Has Lost'

Cheerful Spring

Tough-talking Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced his country's "separation" from long-time ally America Thursday, declaring that he was pivoting instead to China.

The leader — who has been compared to Donald Trump — made his comments during a visit to Beijing, which he used to pave the way for what he calls a new commercial alliance as relations with Washington deteriorate.

"In this venue, your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States," Duterte told Chinese and Philippine business people, to applause, at a forum in the Great Hall of the People attended by Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli.

Both in military, not maybe social, but economics also. America has lost."

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/philippine-leader-duterte-ditches-u-s-china-says-america-has-n670066


This will be an interesting watch to see how the United States reacts to one of the main partners in the Asia region ditching them!

Nate--IRL--

I sense a delivery of Freedom in the near future.....

Nate

BorneTobyWilde

Well done Hilary

ZeroThreat

Wonder if there's some members of the Marcos clan the next administration can install quickly??

BoJack Horseman

Duterte may be overstating it..... but the fellow is right.

He seems to comprehend that (as bad is it is) possession is 9/10ths of the law.
So, one way or another China will and is taking possession of the SCS & filipino/Vietnamese/Malaysian waters. Their military construction is all but complete.

One side is rising..... and his ally is declining.
Hence he is jumping ship... Though I imagine that he privately is getting quite a good reward for this, it can be argued that he is being prudent at the same time.
Realpolitik.

ancapailldorcha

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

I sense a delivery of Freedom in the near future.....

Nate

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Well done Hilary

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Wonder if there's some members of the Marcos clan the next administration can install quickly??

Try to post more constructively please.

AbusesToilets

Another legacy highlight for the Obama administration to be proud of.

alastair

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Another legacy highlight for the Obama administration to be proud of.

It's really nothing to do with Obama, or any other U.S. president. Duterte is just an erratic enough fellah, with a pretty substantial streak of authoritarianism running through his political and social veins. The Chinese attitude to human rights would resonate with him, as well as the shift in regional power-brokerage.

Manach

I'd say this has nearly everything to do with Obama. He famously pivoted his foreign policy towards Asian and made human rights one of the core drivers of this. Whilst in an ideal world this would be fine, in a world of authoritian regimes and allies seeking but not getting US support it played into the hands of regional rivals like Putin or China.
Giving this humiliating defection of one of their oldest allies in the Philippine one might ask which country is next and how the next president will reverse this decline.

Nody

Funny that he sounds exactly like Chaves and I don't think this will end up much different; after that speech the US did come out and say not a single deal was cancelled so it's yet another blusterer who'll look good in the start and **** up the economy in the end (exactly like Chaves). The simple fact is he wants to create headlines but he's also well aware that the deal with US brings him a heck of a lot more with less ties but the fact that US spoke up against his policy of "Shot first and don't investigate later" is what's he's blustering about.

Now once he sends back all the military aid etc. we can talk but until then it's a lot of hot air exactly like Trump.

BoJack Horseman

Nody wrote: »

Now once he sends back all the military aid etc

What military aid?

I don't know they whys or why-nots, but the Philippines has not received much in the way of military aid.
This could well be because they didn't want any or the US was unwilling to give much but wither way they don't owe the US anything in that regard.

To illustrate:
- The Filipino 'navy' comprises mostly of 4 frigates donated from the US.
1 of these is a 73 year old WW2 vessel
3 of these are 50+ year old coast guard vessels that were painted gray and called "frigates".
If anything this saved the US the cost of disposing of them!

The Filipino air force comprises of 5 trainer jets, none of which are US.

As such the Philipines is military extremely weak & in no state whatsoever to resist China..... lest we forget their military 'presence' in the Spratly's!

As I said, I don't know why this is, but they don't owe the US a thing there.
And I doubt the US would ever want money back for the fight against islamic insurgents in the south.

It is partly this that has Duterte talking aloud about buying Russian/Chinese kit.
They will happily provide the 'loans' to greatly improve the Filipino military.
This increases the prestige of Duterte (who wouldn't want to stand on a platform as a shiny new squadron of SU-30s fly overhead) & moves them into the Russian/Chinese camp.

ZeroThreat

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What military aid?

I don't know they whys or why-nots, but the Philippines has not received much in the way of military aid.
This could well be because they didn't want any or the US was unwilling to give much but wither way they don't owe the US anything in that regard.

To illustrate:
- The Filipino 'navy' comprises mostly of 4 frigates donated from the US.
1 of these is a 73 year old WW2 vessel
3 of these are 50+ year old coast guard vessels that were painted gray and called "frigates".
If anything this saved the US the cost of disposing of them!

The Filipino air force comprises of 5 trainer jets, none of which are US.

As such the Philipines is military extremely weak & in no state whatsoever to China.

As I said, I don't know why this is, but they don't owe the US a thing there.

It is partly this that has Duterte talking aloud about buying Russian/Chinese kit.
They will happily provide the 'loans' to greatly improve the Filipino military.
This increases the prestige of Duterte (who wouldn't want to stand on a platform as a shiny new squadron of SU-30s fly overhead) & moves them into the Russian/Chinese camp.

Loudmouth Duterte has probably signed his own death warrant.

BoJack Horseman

Manach wrote: »

Giving this humiliating defection of one of their oldest allies in the Philippine one might ask which country is next and how the next president will reverse this decline.

There are allies and there are friendly/partner nations.

- Thailand certainly was deemed a partner nation but in the last couple of years they have pretty much drifted away from the fold.... which didn't draw much attention from Obama's media.
Similar to the Philippines, the annual bilateral exercises have been scaled down to almost nothing and will likely cease.

- Singapore isn't a formal ally, but they are a very important partner (naval base).
They seem firmly committed in their partnership afaik.


If there is another domino to fall to China there is really only Taiwan.
The US was the only nation willing to assist with big-ticket defence items, but the Obama administration in its bunk attempts to appease Beijing have for several years now refused to assist with high-end procurement of fighter aircraft or submarines for fear of offending China.
European suppliers won't touch Taiwan anymore for fear of harming business & investment.

Taipei must know that in reality it is on its own.

BoJack Horseman

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Loudmouth Duterte has probably signed his own death warrant.

No.... probably not.
Polonium & piano wire is the result of offending Moscow, not allying with them!

See how things play out.
China wants the SCS for its fish & potentially oil & gas.
The Philippines have had limited success in exploiting this.

If Beijing cuts Duterte a good deal on sharing those spoils I think the people will realise that a slice of something is better than all of nothing that the status quo offers.

Manach

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

There are allies and there are friendly/partner nations.

I would say that historically (the book Generals gives a good account of this pre/during WWII), given the close co-operation the US and Philippines had then allowing such a country to fall away betokens a problem with the US foreign policy. AFAIR from an article in Foreign Affairs magazine, that the Chinese have essentially militarised their coastal reserves to harass vessels in disputed waters without any major response from the US might also have contributed to this.

alastair

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What military aid?

I don't know they whys or why-nots, but the Philippines has not received much in the way of military aid.
This could well be because they didn't want any or the US was unwilling to give much but wither way they don't owe the US anything in that regard.

To illustrate:
- The Filipino 'navy' comprises mostly of 4 frigates donated from the US.
1 of these is a 73 year old WW2 vessel
3 of these are 50+ year old coast guard vessels that were painted gray and called "frigates".
If anything this saved the US the cost of disposing of them!

The Filipino air force comprises of 5 trainer jets, none of which are US.

As such the Philipines is military extremely weak & in no state whatsoever to resist China..... lest we forget their military 'presence' in the Spratly's!

As I said, I don't know why this is, but they don't owe the US a thing there.
And I doubt the US would ever want money back for the fight against islamic insurgents in the south.

It is partly this that has Duterte talking aloud about buying Russian/Chinese kit.
They will happily provide the 'loans' to greatly improve the Filipino military.
This increases the prestige of Duterte (who wouldn't want to stand on a platform as a shiny new squadron of SU-30s fly overhead) & moves them into the Russian/Chinese camp.

The U.S. military aid to the Phillipines is a tad more than you suggest: http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/philippines-get-military-aid-u-s/

BoJack Horseman

Manach wrote: »

I would say that historically (the book Generals gives a good account of this pre/during WWII), given the close co-operation the US and Philippines had then allowing such a country to fall away betokens a problem with the US foreign policy.

I agree.

AFAIR from an article in Foreign Affairs magazine, that the Chinese have essentially militarised their coastal reserves to harass vessels in disputed waters without any major response from the US might also have contributed to this.

Indeed.

It is fascinating what the Chinese have done with their 'forces' (inverted comas intentional.

China has in effect 3 seperate naval forces. Something that is starting to get noticed in the media.

- The PLAN, quite a powerful force now & getting stronger.
- The Chinese coast guard. Expanding also... the new hulls are defacto frigates and corvettes that can be converted to military use easily.
These assets are used frequently to harass Japanese/Korean/Taiwanese vessels without going all out and having the navy do it.
- The Fishing 'militia'...... these guys are interesting. They are fisherman but they are also paid by Beijing to go where they are told and to intimidate/harass & intrude where they should not be.
It is the fishing militia that have been busy on intimidation ops through the SCS over the past few years.


It is extremely hard to counter a force that is military in all but name, but technically independent civilians.
Very smart paradigm on the part of China.

BoJack Horseman

alastair wrote: »

The U.S. military aid to the Phillipines is a tad more than you suggest

Did you read your link?

$38m per year on average.
To put that in perspective..... a whole 1% of what the military aid given to Israel.

The article even mentions those 50 year old Hamilton class "frigates"
And I'm sure those surplus 8 vehicles will terrify Beijing!

I can see Duterte's POV here.... Russia and China will happily do a far far better deal than 8 old apcs

alastair

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Did you read your link?

$38m per year on average.
To put that in perspective..... a whole 1% of what the military aid given to Israel.

The article even mentions those 50 year old Hamilton class "frigates"
And I'm sure those surplus 8 vehicles will terrify Beijing!

I can see Duterte's POV here.... Russia and China will happily do a far far better deal than 8 old apcs

$79 million this year. That military aid to Israel is massive however, so 1% of that is not 'nothing' to a country like the Phillipines. The kit isn't meant to 'terrify' anyone, so not really sure what your point is - it's 3 ships (modernised in the late 80's) provided by the U.S., the 8 assault craft, and a couple of Hercules transport planes. If your point is that the U.S. isn't providing enough kit for the Phillipines to go to war with China, then, sure. I'm pretty sure China won't supply enough gear for them to go to war against the U.S. either.

BoJack Horseman

alastair wrote: »

That military aid to Israel is massive however, so 1% of that is not 'nothing' to a country like the Phillipines

It isn't nothing.... but it isn't much either.
2 years of $38m and they might be able to afford a fisheries patrol vessel!

The coastguard ships aren't meant to 'terrify' anyone, so not really sure what your point is - it's 8 ships provided by the U.S.

Terrify is obviously hyperbole.
What is quite obvious to any reader is that the Philippines has not been in receipt of military aid or assistance to anything like the level of other allies.
And what it did get from the US is laughably incapable of national defence.

As the Filipino DefMin said:

Lorenzana said that the value of US military aid to Manila is “not that much” and that the country’s military officials could ask the Philippines Congress to make up for a shortfall of $50-$100 million a year in aid from Washington.
“We can live without (that),” Lorenzana told a foreign correspondents’ forum on Friday, Reuters reported.

Obama didn't show much love to Manilla.... meanwhile Pakistan gets 5 times the aid & they pretty much loath the US.


And what 8 ships?
Your article mentions 8 x APCs.

alastair

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It isn't nothing.... but it isn't much either.
2 years of $38m and they might be able to afford a fisheries patrol vessel!


Terrify is obviously hyperbole.
What is quite obvious to any reader is that the Philippines has not been in receipt of military aid or assistance to anything like the level of other allies.
And what it did get from the US is laughably incapable of national defence.

Obama didn't show much love to Manilla.... meanwhile Pakistan gets 5 times the aid & they pretty much loath the US.

And what 8 ships?
Your article mentions 8 x APCs.

The U.S. isn't funding the national defence business of any of it's allies. It is however providing $79 million of military support to the Philippines this year (that's about a fifth of their total military budget). That's much more than nothing, and much more than anyone else is contributing to their military - which would be naught. The Pakistan military is being paid for supporting an ongoing U.S. war in their territory, and it's a mite bigger - with over a million military personnel compared to the Philipines' 90,000. You'd expect a bit more outlay in those circumstances.

BoJack Horseman

alastair wrote: »

That's much more than nothing, and much more than anyone else is contributing to their military - which would be naught.

Time will tell Ali.

This could be just one big power play to get more money from the US taxpayer.
But I don't think it is. The whole thing does feel like a proper move from one camp to the other.

We don't know yet what Beijing has offered Duterte (personally or nationally).

But if Obama can increase his bid to $79m, I don't doubt that China can beat that..... the prize of the US losing its longest local ally would be worth it.

alastair

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

This could be just one big power play to get more money from the US taxpayer.
But I don't think it is. The whole thing does feel like a proper move from one camp to the other.

We don't know yet what Beijing has offered Duterte (personally or nationally).

On the contrary. The Chinese payoff to Duterte is public - though there could well be more still to come - $15 billion worth of projects, though the 2 million jobs estimate seems a bit overblown, and $9 billion in credit: http://business.inquirer.net/217269/itemized-list-ph-projects-covered-chinas-15-b-investment-pledges-duterte

BoJack Horseman

alastair wrote: »

$15 billion worth of projects....and $9 billion in credit

So, that puts the $79m this year and the $38m per year since 2002 into perspective.

All the clapped-out 1960's coast-guard ships in the world won't match that!
And I'm sure there was a cherry on top for the man himself.

I read that the people (such as it can be measured) still favour being allied to the US.
We will see if this 'gift' will change their mind.

When you weigh what one side offers against the other, there is only one winner.

alastair

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

So, that puts the $79m this year and the $38m per year since 2002 into perspective.

Not really. The question was military support. The Chinese aren't providing any military support, and the U.S. are still a significant (and sole) supplier of military support.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

All the clapped-out 1960's coast-guard ships in the world won't match that!
And I'm sure there was a cherry on top for the man himself.

I read that the people (such as it can be measured) still favour being allied to the US.
We will see if this 'gift' will change their mind.

When you weigh what one side offers against the other, there is only one winner.

China is clearly attempting to buy off the Philipines, that's for sure.

recedite

alastair wrote: »

On the contrary. The Chinese payoff to Duterte is public - though there could well be more still to come - $15 billion worth of projects, though the 2 million jobs estimate seems a bit overblown, and $9 billion in credit: http://business.inquirer.net/217269/itemized-list-ph-projects-covered-chinas-15-b-investment-pledges-duterte

Holy crap... I was expecting to see logging and mining, but this is a wishlist of environmentally friendly and socially beneficial investment projects. Its like a Green Party wet dream.
Is there any chance we could cosy up to the Chinese a bit more ourselves?

ZeroThreat

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Did you read your link?

$38m per year on average.
To put that in perspective..... a whole 1% of what the military aid given to Israel.

The article even mentions those 50 year old Hamilton class "frigates"
And I'm sure those surplus 8 vehicles will terrify Beijing!

I can see Duterte's POV here.... Russia and China will happily do a far far better deal than 8 old apcs

The aid given reflects their standing in US eyes, they probably consider Israel 100 times more strategically important than the tin pot Philipines.

realitykeeper

I genuinely believe Ireland should maneuver away from the US and perhaps even the EU and forge much stronger ties to Russia and China. If Capitalism represents freedom and Communism represents tyranny then obviously the east is where freedom will be. The west will descend into Communism after QE ends in disaster next year.

Ireland`s close relationship with the US had it`s place in the past when things were different. The St Patrick`s Day shindig has become a serious embarrassment and Irish politicians continue to make a holy show of themselves around the world every March 17th. Ireland needs to put an end to the pub culture and it needs to get back to God.

brownej

Duterte is very popular in the Philippines especially on domestic issues.
The international gaffes are a source of embaressment but he still retains local confidence because of his hardline stance on crime and corruption.
This latest development with distancing the Phillipines from America is concerning. There are alot of (well paying) jobs here that are either directly from American companies or through outsourcing. Form electronics to back office finance and telephone support outsourcing, there is a very strong American presence which I would guess he would be very unlikely to jeopardise.
The Philippines' long relationship with the US and the fact that the country is largely English speaking will mean a separation from America will be unlikely.
Although it only makes sense for Duterte to build alliances and gain investment from wherever he can get it. China is certainly the up and coming big player!
As always we must wait for Duterte to return to Manila to so that his advisors and officials can clarify what he really meant!

Timberrrrrrrr

realitykeeper wrote: »

I genuinely believe Ireland should maneuver away from the US and perhaps even the EU and forge much stronger ties to Russia and China. If Capitalism represents freedom and Communism represents tyranny then obviously the east is where freedom will be. The west will descend into Communism after QE ends in disaster next year.

Is this the collapse that you have been predicting/revising for how many years now?

Ireland`s close relationship with the US had it`s place in the past when things were different. The St Patrick`s Day shindig has become a serious embarrassment and Irish politicians continue to make a holy show of themselves around the world every March 17th. Ireland needs to put an end to the pub culture and it needs to get back to God.

Sorry but it's hard to take you serious when you say things like this, "god" has no place in a modern progressive society and certainly should have no place in politics.

BoJack Horseman

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Is this the collapse that you have been predicting/revising for how many years now?

I remember our buddy telling us that Ireland will be as poor as the poorest African nation by 2018.

So.... any minute now I suppose!

Manach

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Sorry but it's hard to take you serious when you say things like this, "god" has no place in a modern progressive society and certainly should have no place in politics.

Not at all a stereotypical response form the left at disqualification :rolleyes:

Timberrrrrrrr

Manach wrote: »

Not at all a stereotypical response form the left at disqualification :rolleyes:

You thin religion has a place in politics? You think the country would be better if we all went "back to god"?

How did the country fare when it was under the thumbnail "god" and his earthly minions? Should we go back to the days of the RCC telling the government what is best for citizens?

BoJack Horseman

Seems like our chum Duterte is trying to play a tricky game!

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/25/16/duterte-nixes-idea-of-military-alliance-with-nation-other-than-us

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said Monday, on the eve of his visit to Japan, that he has no plan to forge a military alliance with any country other than the United States, downplaying concerns over his veering toward China.

"The alliances are alive, it is there," the Philippine leader said, referring to the Philippines' longest standing ally, the United States. "There should be no worry about changes of alliances. I do not need to have alliances with other nations."

In an interview with some Japanese media outlets, including Kyodo News, Duterte clarified that he only plans to have an "alliance of trade and commerce" with China.

These remarks came after he announced during a visit to China last week his "separation from the United States, both in military, not maybe social, but economics also" and suggested his country would be much better off aligning itself with China.

"America has lost. I realign myself in your ideological flow," he told his Chinese hosts at a business forum.
"And maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to (President Vladimir) Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world -- China, Philippines, and Russia. It's the only way," he said then.

Likes the mixed messages he does.
I'm guessing he is also aching for some extra love from Washington.

He might think it is clever to play sides against each other..... maybe he is.

realitykeeper

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Sorry but it's hard to take you serious when you say things like this, "god" has no place in a modern progressive society and certainly should have no place in politics.

I cannot agree. God is central to everything. Cultures that keep God at their core and cherish the wisdom of God have always thrived. Just look at how great Israel is.

It is the countries that reject God or have a warped interpretation of God that flounder and believe me, Ireland will flounder.

Timberrrrrrrr

realitykeeper wrote: »

I cannot agree. God is central to everything. Cultures that keep God at their core and cherish the wisdom of God have always thrived. Just look at how great Israel is.

Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, etc....all very religious countries that keep "god" at their core....are they "thriving"?

It is the countries that reject God or have a warped interpretation of God that flounder and believe me, Ireland will flounder.

What countries have rejected "god" and floundered?

realitykeeper

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, etc....all very religious countries that keep "god" at their core....are they "thriving"?



What countries have rejected "god" and floundered?

Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, all have a warped interpretation of God which is why they are floundering.

Ireland is the perfect example of a country which has rejected God and it will flounder as a result.

Timberrrrrrrr

realitykeeper wrote: »

Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, all have a warped interpretation of God which is why they are floundering.

You mean they don't believe in your god so therefore that's why they are in the state they are in?

Ireland is the perfect example of a country which has rejected God and it will flounder as a result.

More doom and gloom predictions? How many have you made in the last few years? Your like one of those websites that claims the world will end on X date several times a year.

Billy86

realitykeeper wrote: »

Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, all have a warped interpretation of God which is why they are floundering.

Ireland is the perfect example of a country which has rejected God and it will flounder as a result.

Romania, Paraguay, Zambia, Haiti, Moldova... all amongst the most Christian countries in the world, and absolutely thriving!!

realitykeeper

Billy86 wrote: »

Romania, Paraguay, Zambia, Haiti, Moldova... all amongst the most Christian countries in the world, and absolutely thriving!!

Those countries have at one time or other rejected Christianity in favour of socialism, so it is socialism or its legacy that has caused problems in those countries.

realitykeeper

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

You mean they don't believe in your god so therefore that's why they are in the state they are in?

Well my God is the only one, so yes that is what I mean.

Billy86

realitykeeper wrote: »

Those countries have at one time or other rejected Christianity in favour of socialism, so it is socialism or its legacy that has caused problems in those countries.

Haiti and Zambia were socialist countries? Links please.

Timberrrrrrrr

realitykeeper wrote: »

Well my God is the only one, so yes that is what I mean.

Can you prove this?

alastair

Billy86 wrote: »

Haiti and Zambia were socialist countries? Links please.

It's alternate reality we're dealing with here.

K-9

Mod:

Ok realitykeeper, red card for somehow dragging God into this thread and derailing.

We don't mind threads going off topic if people are civil but this is ridiculous, and not for the first time. We're getting to go set up a blog stage.