NBA Regular Season 2016-17

nerd69

K.O.Kiki wrote: »

You can have all the stats in the world, it doesn't mean a damn if your TEAM doesn't win games.

MJ had 37ppg in 86-87, first player with 200 steals + 100 blocks in a season.

Lost 0-3 to the Celtics in the first round.

Your right he should just sit the season a player can't pick his supporting cast your argument is nonsense

brady23

nerd69 wrote: »

K.O.Kiki wrote: »

You can have all the stats in the world, it doesn't mean a damn if your TEAM doesn't win games.

MJ had 37ppg in 86-87, first player with 200 steals + 100 blocks in a season.

Lost 0-3 to the Celtics in the first round.

Your right he should just sit the season a player can't pick his supporting cast your argument is nonsense

I can understand the argument if Curry was the main guy, where he's averging similar to like his first MVP season and they have a similar record but this is Currys worst season since 2012-13, he's struggling to fully figure out his role with them.
Obviously he's still phenomenonal but I think he's currently the Warriors 3rd most important player.
Westbrook is the hands down winner between the two.

NufcNavan

The guy who just pads stats and doesn't help his team just recorded another triple double and hit a game winner against the Jazz last night.

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

I can understand the argument if Curry was the main guy, where he's averging similar to like his first MVP season and they have a similar record but this is Currys worst season since 2012-13, he's struggling to fully figure out his role with them.
Obviously he's still phenomenonal but I think he's currently the Warriors 3rd most important player.
Westbrook is the hands down winner between the two.

That's actually a little harsh on Curry. Can you imagine any other player willingly taking a back-seat to accommodate another superstar in the league as gracefully as he's done it? Considering the egos in the NBA I think this is a huge achievement in itself and shows the GSW team are really a team and all about winning underneath it all. His stats aren't that bad btw if you really look deeply at them, esp. on a per minute level. Are Russ's better? Sure. you can't argue with a Triple Double night after night. FWIW, I do think Russ should start ahead of him but Curry is not exactly a chump. He's a two time back to back MVP who could if he was all about himself go out and score at will regularly or throw up 30 shots a night, but he's sacrificing this year to win it all. I think that shows a great degree of maturity and confidence.

At the end of the day though do you think he (Curry) really cares about starting an exhibition game v. winning a ring?

Like I said though a few posts back, I think Russ getting MVP in this game is a good bet. He'll be motivated even more than usual (if that were even possible).

NufcNavan

Didn't someone here a while ago say Wiggins was in danger of being a bust lol.

brady23

ButtersSuki wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

I can understand the argument if Curry was the main guy, where he's averging similar to like his first MVP season and they have a similar record but this is Currys worst season since 2012-13, he's struggling to fully figure out his role with them.
Obviously he's still phenomenonal but I think he's currently the Warriors 3rd most important player.
Westbrook is the hands down winner between the two.

That's actually a little harsh on Curry. Can you imagine any other player willingly taking a back-seat to accommodate another superstar in the league as gracefully as he's done it? Considering the egos in the NBA I think this is a huge achievement in itself and shows the GSW team are really a team and all about winning underneath it all. His stats aren't that bad btw if you really look deeply at them, esp. on a per minute level. Are Russ's better? Sure. you can't argue with a Triple Double night after night. FWIW, I do think Russ should start ahead of him but Curry is not exactly a chump. He's a two time back to back MVP who could if he was all about himself go out and score at will regularly or throw up 30 shots a night, but he's sacrificing this year to win it all. I think that shows a great degree of maturity and confidence.

At the end of the day though do you think he (Curry) really cares about starting an exhibition game v. winning a ring?

Like I said though a few posts back, I think Russ getting MVP in this game is a good bet. He'll be motivated even more than usual (if that were even possible).

I don't really know what you're trying to get at when you're talking about sacrificing tbh.

I assume you're alluding to his offensive production being lower than last year and that is what he is sacrificing.

I don't personally think that.

Currys numbers are way down, both offensively and defensively. If a player is sacrificing for the team from an offensive standpoint, more specifically scoring, the effect should be evident elsewhere.

Curry in theory should have more assists but he has less than the last 2 years
Similarly he should have a better TS% and 3pt % but they're both way down on the last 2 years.

Actually he's having his worst season since the year before his first MVP season from every advanced metric; PER, WS, BPM, WARP.
He's a minus BPM defender again and has dropped 9 offensive win shares which is ridiculous.

I don't doubt he's great and can still do what he wants when he wants. I'm also not saying he's not a better player now than 2013-14 but he's struggling to truly find his role. The reduction in his production is not about sacrifice but more about adjustment imo.

brady23

NufcNavan wrote: »

Didn't someone here a while ago say Wiggins was in danger of being a bust lol.

Kwame Brown hit a game winner before

NufcNavan

brady23 wrote: »

Kwame Brown hit a game winner before

I'm talking about more than the game winner. How about the 31 points that accompanied it for starters.

NufcNavan

Seems to be a lot of rumours going on. Melo-Love trade being the main one.

Zero of the trade talk is coming from Carmelo. This is all Phil, looking for another scapegoat. Of course giving him a no-trade clause is just another one of Phil's screw-ups.

Every team could use better players. The warriors could use better players. When you're the defending champ you don't whine about what you have.

Lebron made himself look very weak. All of his manipulating the front office and he still throws his puppet GM under the bus.

Gregk961

NufcNavan wrote: »

Every team could use better players. The warriors could use better players. When you're the defending champ you don't whine about what you have.

Lebron made himself look very weak. All of his manipulating the front office and he still throws his puppet GM under the bus.

Should they not make a big trade Lebron has given a big psychological edge to his playoff rivals aswell, trying to shrewdly manipulate the situation but hes really just shot his team in the foot if they dont land somebody.

Melo for Love would be a bad trade from NYs perspective but bad deals seem to be their niche at the moment. Not sure Melo is what the Cavs even need but it couldnt hurt them surely.

brady23

NufcNavan wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

Kwame Brown hit a game winner before

I'm talking about more than the game winner. How about the 31 points that accompanied it for starters.

I'm just saying a game winner and 31 points doesn't mean he won't become a bust.
Personally I don't think he will be a bust but he hasn't been good. Here's a link to Wiggins vs Beasley for both their 3rd seasons. It's scary similar.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&hint=Michael+Beasley&player_id1_select=Michael+Beasley&player_id1=beaslmi01&y1=2011&hint=Andrew+Wiggins&player_id2_select=Andrew+Wiggins&y2=2017&player_id2=wiggian01

*On Mobile sorry

K.O.Kiki

NufcNavan wrote: »

The guy who just pads stats and doesn't help his team just recorded another triple double and hit a game winner against the Jazz last night.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5qat1j/statistically_analysis_russell_westbrooks/

Summary: Westbrook is almost never contesting shots, instead he's leaving his man open and blatantly attacking the paint in search of defensive rebounds with a numbers advantage. Beyond this, the entire rebounding culture of the team has been centered around the bigs boxing out and deferring rebounds to Westbrook. Additionally, due to his position being perimeter oriented, his constant search of rebounds has compromised OKC's perimeter defense, which ranks dead last in the NBA in opp. expected FG% by a considerable margin.

NufcNavan

brady23 wrote: »

I'm just saying a game winner and 31 points doesn't mean he won't become a bust.
Personally I don't think he will be a bust but he hasn't been good. Here's a link to Wiggins vs Beasley for both their 3rd seasons. It's scary similar.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&hint=Michael+Beasley&player_id1_select=Michael+Beasley&player_id1=beaslmi01&y1=2011&hint=Andrew+Wiggins&player_id2_select=Andrew+Wiggins&y2=2017&player_id2=wiggian01

*On Mobile sorry

He's averaging 22 a game with increased 3pt%, assists and rebounds. He's 21. You are setting an extremely unfair standard.

Unless he has a catastrophic injury, he won't be a bust.

K.O.Kiki wrote: »

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5qat1j/statistically_analysis_russell_westbrooks/

Just stop.

He is the first, second, and third options for his team and everyone on the court knows it.

He is going to will the team to the playoffs, and what else is he supposed to do? What space do they have on the court for a drive-first player like him? They are 2nd to last in the NBA in 3pt %, and not far from that in 3pt made. Morrow is having his worst shooting year of his career, Singler has been horrible when actually playing, Payne has missed ample time (and hasn't been a shooter either), Dipo is shooting 37% from downtown, Grant has provided under 1 3pt FG per game (on very solid %). What is he to do about the terrible surrounding?

I'm really not sure what people expect Westbrook to do with the guys around him. Remove him, and OKC struggles to break 25 wins.

brady23

NufcNavan wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

I'm just saying a game winner and 31 points doesn't mean he won't become a bust.
Personally I don't think he will be a bust but he hasn't been good. Here's a link to Wiggins vs Beasley for both their 3rd seasons. It's scary similar.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&hint=Michael+Beasley&player_id1_select=Michael+Beasley&player_id1=beaslmi01&y1=2011&hint=Andrew+Wiggins&player_id2_select=Andrew+Wiggins&y2=2017&player_id2=wiggian01

*On Mobile sorry

He's averaging 22 a game with increased 3pt%, assists and rebounds. He's 21. You are setting an extremely unfair standard.

Unless he has a catastrophic injury, he won't be a bust.

Yes and Beasley had very similar numbers at his age and he never got a catastrophic injury.
I was just saying a game winner doesn't mean he won't be a bust.
Like I said I don't think he will be a bust but a game winner and 31 points doesn't make the possibility of it LOL

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

I don't really know what you're trying to get at when you're talking about sacrificing tbh.

I assume you're alluding to his offensive production being lower than last year and that is what he is sacrificing.

I don't personally think that.

Currys numbers are way down, both offensively and defensively. If a player is sacrificing for the team from an offensive standpoint, more specifically scoring, the effect should be evident elsewhere.

Curry in theory should have more assists but he has less than the last 2 years
Similarly he should have a better TS% and 3pt % but they're both way down on the last 2 years.

Actually he's having his worst season since the year before his first MVP season from every advanced metric; PER, WS, BPM, WARP.
He's a minus BPM defender again and has dropped 9 offensive win shares which is ridiculous.

I don't doubt he's great and can still do what he wants when he wants. I'm also not saying he's not a better player now than 2013-14 but he's struggling to truly find his role. The reduction in his production is not about sacrifice but more about adjustment imo.

It's late and I've just spotted this but I will reply fully when I have time.

What I will say is this though - and this is a topic that has been discussed on here regularly over the years - it's not all about stats.

brady23

ButtersSuki wrote: »

[His stats aren't that bad btw if you really look deeply at them, esp. on a per minute level.

You suggested his numbers from a per min perspective were still very good, I was simply showing that they weren't nearly as good as previous years.

mixery

yeah I always feel out of place here when you guys bring out the 'big boy' stats. i find it a lot easier, and more importantly enjoyable to judge players/teams by watching them.

btw I'm really happy Hayward got the nod for the ASG, well deserved, and another step forward in his career.

brady23

Enes Kanter fractures his forearm by punching a chair.
Huge loss for the Thunder, he's been a top 5 6th man this year, it's hard to imagine Westbrook having to carry even more of an offensive load but he could be forced to


Knicks allegedly tell the Clippers they're willing to make a deal and not ask for one of the big 3.
Redick, Crawford, Johnson for Melo and Plumlee works.
I assume the Knicks would want some picks.
A 3rd team might be best for the Knicks though to acquire a better pick for someone looking to rent Redick.

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

You suggested his numbers from a per min perspective were still very good, I was simply showing that they weren't nearly as good as previous years.

This is the short reply - I will get around to a fuller one at some stage. Firstly though, a general comment - my God you're so argumentative, particularly with me for some reason? I'm not saying you're 100% wrong and I'm not saying I'm 100% right btw, I'm just saying there's some very simple analyses and arguments being thrown about that deserve deeper scrutiny.

I meant in context. And by that context I mean there's not another player in the league sharing the ball with a KD and Klay type combo at the moment, so in that context. Yes his numbers are down, but how could they not when he's now sharing with KD vs. Harrison Barnes unless of course he was just to go in ball-hog mode on things. Conversely, if he was playing with 4 scrubs and given a green light to do what he wanted and take 35 shots a game, do you not think that his numbers might be better? He has sacrificed to make the overall team better.

Curry is no chump. Should Westbrook start the ASG based on what he's doing this year? Yes. I've already said that. But it's essentially a meaningless exhibition game. And it was the fan vote that put him over the top (he and Westbrook were tied after all votes were cast and the tie breaker was the fan vote) so blame the system, not Curry.

And again, it's not all about stats - but I will develop this when I come back to the thread.

brady23

ButtersSuki wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

You suggested his numbers from a per min perspective were still very good, I was simply showing that they weren't nearly as good as previous years.

This is the short reply - I will get around to a fuller one at some stage. Firstly though, a general comment - my God you're so argumentative, particularly with me for some reason? I'm not saying you're 100% wrong and I'm not saying I'm 100% right btw, I'm just saying there's some very simple analyses and arguments being thrown about that deserve deeper scrutiny.

I meant in context. And by that context I mean there's not another player in the league sharing the ball with a KD and Klay type combo at the moment, so in that context. Yes his numbers are down, but how could they not when he's now sharing with KD vs. Harrison Barnes unless of course he was just to go in ball-hog mode on things. Conversely, if he was playing with 4 scrubs and given a green light to do what he wanted and take 35 shots a game, do you not think that his numbers might be better? He has sacrificed to make the overall team better.

Curry is no chump. Should Westbrook start the ASG based on what he's doing this year? Yes. I've already said that. But it's essentially a meaningless exhibition game. And it was the fan vote that put him over the top (he and Westbrook were tied after all votes were cast and the tie breaker was the fan vote) so blame the system, not Curry.

And again, it's not all about stats - but I will develop this when I come back to the thread.

First of all I'm not argumentative with you personally. You simply make statements that I disagree with quite often. I'm looking forward to the deeper analysis when you get the time.

However, based on what you are saying thus far that his numbers are down because he's now sharing the ball with KD, Klay which I agree is a fair point to discuss.
I'm simply saying I don't agree that's the reason or primary reason they're down. I don't believe his "sacrificing" is the reason his numbers are down. I think he's struggling to adjust to his different role.

His usage rate for all his sacrificing is ever so slightly higher than first MVP season.
He's taking less shots than last year but making a lower percentage and he's taking more than his first MVP season and he's making a lower percentage too.

When you say sacrifice I'm assuming it's his offensive game is what he's sacrificing, more specifically scoring.
My point is that if a player has a reduced load on him, he should see some improvement in other areas, simply as a byproduct of the lower scoring needs.

You would expect a player to shoot a higher percentage from the field, have more assists, be a better defender etc.
None of which Curry has improved and all of which are not as good as seasons prior to his first MVP season.

brady23

Watched some of the Rockets and Sixers, Embiid is unbelievable, he's just so huge and a nice shooter.
The NBAs big men looks great for the future.
Harden was insane though 51-13-13. He's the only player to ever get multiple triple doubles with 50 points or more in one season.
I also watched some Wizards and Hawks, Otto Porter has come on so much. Hes shooting 46% from three, some sort of Korver, Batum, Tony Allen hybrid. I think he could be a future all star

LuckyLloyd

Chris Paul quietly being magnificent. This should also be instructive regarding Westbrook's overall contribution and the accusations of stat padding or whatever.

LuckyLloyd

mixery wrote: »

yeah I always feel out of place here when you guys bring out the 'big boy' stats. i find it a lot easier, and more importantly enjoyable to judge players/teams by watching them.

Unfortunately we miss way more than we think watching the games live. The NBA itself is massively data driven in terms of the way performance is analysed, and increasingly few GMs and coaches are solely judging by what they see or bulk production numbers.

And it was me who said Wiggins could be a 'bust'. Yeah, he can score, but his overall contribution seems increasingly negative to me considering his immense athletic ability. He's a negative on both ends of the floor this year in BPM, particularly on defense. He looks lazy and lost in general aspects of the game. It's probably wrong to use the word 'bust' in that a bulk scorer will get a contract in the NBA - but I can't see a path to him realising his potential and living up to his pre draft expectations at this point.

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

First of all I'm not argumentative with you personally. You simply make statements that I disagree with quite often. I'm looking forward to the deeper analysis when you get the time.

However, based on what you are saying thus far that his numbers are down because he's now sharing the ball with KD, Klay which I agree is a fair point to discuss.
I'm simply saying I don't agree that's the reason or primary reason they're down. I don't believe his "sacrificing" is the reason his numbers are down. I think he's struggling to adjust to his different role.

His usage rate for all his sacrificing is ever so slightly higher than first MVP season.
He's taking less shots than last year but making a lower percentage and he's taking more than his first MVP season and he's making a lower percentage too.

When you say sacrifice I'm assuming it's his offensive game is what he's sacrificing, more specifically scoring.
My point is that if a player has a reduced load on him, he should see some improvement in other areas, simply as a byproduct of the lower scoring needs.

You would expect a player to shoot a higher percentage from the field, have more assists, be a better defender etc.
None of which Curry has improved and all of which are not as good as seasons prior to his first MVP season.

Fair points and thanks for clarifying.


Quick one as I'm here:
Defence however is not something that I personally believe you can get significantly better at in a short period of time. As a team GS are the no. 1 d team in the league as of last week (if that's changed since then apologies) but part of the reason a guy shaped like Curry will struggle in this league is just size....regardless of whatever fundamentals or heart or other intangibles you add into the mix. He's small and that counts for a lot of things like hands in passing lanes etc. - all these things matter.

I don't know his current steals numbers for this season (and I say this as a person who doesn't believe that stats answer every question), but historically they've been quite good.

On a completely separate but yet related (!) note, of the All Star game matters as much as posters think, how pissed must Chris Pail be at not making it?

Carcharodon

Nice to see things haven't changed in here much, the old stats argument, player having worst season ever because he is down a percentage or two 😂
Keep your stats, I am heading over to watch the clippers game this evening, should be a good one

ButtersSuki

Carcharodon wrote: »

Nice to see things haven't changed in here much, the old stats argument, player having worst season ever because he is down a percentage or two 😂
Keep your stats, I am heading over to watch the clippers game this evening, should be a good one

That has "beatdown" written all over it. Enjoy.

Carcharodon

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Carcharodon wrote: »

Nice to see things haven't changed in here much, the old stats argument, player having worst season ever because he is down a percentage or two 😂
Keep your stats, I am heading over to watch the clippers game this evening, should be a good one

That has "beatdown" written all over it. Enjoy.

Love beating on these little bitches, they thought they were the bomb a few years ago and have gone backwards.
Clippers were supposed to be what the warriors are but the warriors leap frogged them big time
Nice to see better atmosphere at oracle tonight, has been a bit quieter this year, to be expected with combination of fans getting used to winning and a lot of fans being priced out

brady23

I struggle to see anyone getting near GSW at this point. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/ have GSW as 57% chance and Cavs at 6% which seems very low but it's all on their Carm-ELO system.
I don't fully agree with the system but it's interesting to see how lowly the Cavs project

Carcharodon

brady23 wrote: »

I struggle to see anyone getting near GSW at this point. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/ have GSW as 57% chance and Cavs at 6% which seems very low but it's all on their Carm-ELO system.
I don't fully agree with the system but it's interesting to see how lowly the Cavs project

I think if we have have learned anything from last year is that predictions ain't worth ****, never mind that the Cavs beat the Warriors, Trump is president, we are living in the twilight zone where nothing is what it seems

brady23

Carcharodon wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

I struggle to see anyone getting near GSW at this point. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/ have GSW as 57% chance and Cavs at 6% which seems very low but it's all on their Carm-ELO system.
I don't fully agree with the system but it's interesting to see how lowly the Cavs project

I think if we have have learned anything from last year is that predictions ain't worth ****, never mind that the Cavs beat the Warriors, Trump is president, we are living in the twilight zone where nothing is what it seems

Anomalies occur, they're generally pretty close, they're definitely valuable otherwise they wouldn't exist and ESPN, NBA teams and bookies wouldn't use them.

What you're saying about the presidential election is kinda true. Pollsters are possibly overvalued though. The 2 biggest markets in Betfair exchange history is Brexit and this US election. 150m and 200m matched and both were wrong.

Obviously anomalies happen but the 2 most liquid markets ever were wrong so maybe there will be some interesting changes in that area over the next few years.