NBA Regular Season 2016-17

nerd69

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Bill Simmons thinks they're dealing Isiah this summer depending on who they pull in the draft. I can understand the logic but I'd imagine the deal wouldn't go down well with the Boston faithful for whom Thomas is a hero right now. He was also pretty sure they're making moves on Hayward (because of the Stevens and Butler connection primarily) but I personally don't think he's at that level where those two deals combined moves them to the next level. They need more.

Agree the Horford deal wasn't the best move. I feel they did it as they lost the Durant sweepstakes. They have a great core, but they need to do something big this summer as the clock is ticking.

Could potentially see Thomas doing a decent deal for Boston because he really seems to love it there but I think there ****ed if they give him the max.

They signed horrors first I believe and he was part of the package to sell durant

brady23

ButtersSuki wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

I think Westbrook has obviously been great and the triple double thing is excellent don't get me wrong but if Westbrook wins you're essentially saying.

1pt more, 2 rebounds more and 1 less assist is worth more than someone who guides a team of similar talent to an extra 9-10 wins. Not to mention Hardens numbers are arguably better due to his higher eFG% among other numbers.

I checked and last year the 6 leaders on each team in terms of minutes outside of them two had almost an identical amount of win shares between them.

They're close on talent and I do think Harden has done more to elevate his teammates, they have the highest differential in predicted wins for example.
These to me are indicators of "Most Valuable Player".
I think Cuban, Curry, LBJ among others have indicated the feeling in the league that amongst peers, owners, writers, analysts etc that Harden is their pick

The whole nostalgia attached to a Triple Double is detracting people from it's actual value imo

Have you seen this?
http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

Not sure how much you know about the Hollinger stats (there's an amazingly interesting (for nerds)  Ringer Podcast with him as the guest out there somewhere) but they're about as advanced as you can get, and Westbrook is ahead by a considerable margin on those.

I'm not a Harden hater by any means (quite the opposite) and I think in any other year he's the MVP, but what Westbrook is doing night after night is to me, more impressive. I've posted repeatedly that Presti is repsonsible for making the wrong call in alowing him to leave and I said that before he ever played a game for Houston. IMO OKC would have had multiple Finals trips by now if they had kept the Durant/Russ/Harden trio together. Presti picked Ibaka over Harden and the rest is hostory.

On the other hand (and you can check my posts on this) I've been hugely critical of Westbrook over the years - hugely so. If anything I'd be far more positive on Harden than Westbrook historically.

I disagree however that they have similar talent around them. I think Houston has a better squad overall (they underperformed last year IMO) and crucially they have the assets that showcase Harden's game. Westbrook does not have an army of good 3 point shooters like Houston does to space the floor giving him solid 1v1 opps from which to score or pick up assists like Harden does. The game is easier (relatively) when you have spacing like that.

On your point on elevating his teamamtes - Harden has the right coach and the right system (almost the perfect system actually) to showcase his game and to make him look very good right now. I don't think Westbrook has either to be fair. It's a hypotetchical question for sure but I think if you switched them right now both teams lose more games, but I think a Westbrook playing for Houston loses less than Harden on OKC. And as I alluded to in the previous paragraph if I'm a spot up 3 point shooter I'm going to look very good playing with James Harden - he's the perfect guy to make me look good. And Houston have a bunch of them (Houston have 6 players who take more than 6 x 3s a game, OKC have 1 - Westbrook).

A couple of  finals points - on scoring Houston are  at 115.8 v OKC's 107.0. On the rebounds and this is not insignificant IMO - Houston take more shots per game than OKC. They also take a LOT more 3's. Both of those (and in particular the 3's - 40.3 v 25.6) give you more rebounding opportunites per game, which favours Harden.

Cuban is not a fan of Westbrook so it's likely a combination of that and him strirring the pot a little that fueled his comments (hardly the first time either). As for LBJ and others, loads have said Westbrook so it's kinda split.

I'm not saying Westbrook will be robed if he doesn't win it. Someone has to lose. IMO (and it's just my opinion, I'm not saying I'm right and you're wrong) what he's doing is a little more impressive than what Harden is doing (and that's no slight on Harden, what he's done this year is incredible too).

Yeah I've actually met him at a conference incredibly knowledgeable guy. Any time I reference advanced stats he features regularly. His stuff is actually quite basic in comparison to say something like win shares tbh, PER is easily calculated and offense heavy but it's a fun number because all the fun names are up the top. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

You'd probably need to read this(which I haven't btw) http://www.basketballonpaper.com/ to get win shares but decent explanation here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

I can't fault Presti he picked balance over ability which you need, more critical of not dealing him earlier but having got to that point he made the right call given Serge's defensive prowess at the time.

I think if in one paragraph you discuss how great Hollinger's stats are then you have to realise how close OKC and the Rockets are based on advanced stats such as win shares last year. 

Like I previously said their current minutes leaders are good to compare, last year OKC and the Rockets current 6 primary leaders in minutes outside of Russ and Harden (prior to trade deadline) had almost identical win shares where as this year those same OKC guys have remained stagnant while every single Rocket has improved.

I see how you might deem what Westbrook is doing as more impressive but I don't think what he's doing makes a better case for MVP.

dub_skav

I think the MVP race this year is an interesting one based on the value that people place on statistics, and which ones.

Harden seems to be more efficient and sharing the ball more, while Westbrook's value to the team seems entirely unquestonable as they have nobody else who can score well, bar Kanter.

Whatever happens in the voting though, one of them will have a very reasonable case to feel aggrieved.

NufcNavan

So the nuggets traded Jusef Nurkic and a first round pick to Portland for Mason Plumlee, and Nurkic repays them by frying them for 33, 18 and 3 blocks in last night's battle for #8 in the west.

This is without a doubt the dumbest decision of the season.

But that could be topped by the Pacer's decision to sign Lance...

brady23

What a 4th quarter by Westbrook, he's 50-9-9 going into overtime after hitting a game tying 3pt shot from 30+ ft, he's super human

Highest scoring triple double of all time with 57 points, this race is just too good, just when I thought it was Harden's he plays like that, he's unbelievable

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

What a 4th quarter by Westbrook, he's 50-9-9 going into overtime after hitting a game tying 3pt shot from 30+ ft, he's super human

Highest scoring triple double of all time with 57 points, this race is just too good, just when I thought it was Harden's he plays like that, he's unbelievable

Hmm.:D

ButtersSuki

NufcNavan wrote: »

So the nuggets traded Jusef Nurkic and a first round pick to Portland for Mason Plumlee, and Nurkic repays them by frying them for 33, 18 and 3 blocks in last night's battle for #8 in the west.

This is without a doubt the dumbest decision of the season.

But that could be topped by the Pacer's decision to sign Lance...

Look at his stats since the trade. And he's still not fully in shape.

It does look awful, but it wasn't working in Denver so they had to do something- but they did let him go far too cheaply.

Still think the Boogie trade is worse though.

brady23

Kings given permission to talk to Sam Hinkie, finally Randavie/Divac might be seeing the light.

I don't think he'll try anything as radical as what he did in Philly but he's exactly what the Kings need, someone with foresight and progressive who realises that attempting to be somewhat relevant in the short term is exactly how you remain irrelevant for the long term

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

Kings given permission to talk to Sam Hinkie, finally Randavie/Divac might be seeing the light.

I don't think he'll try anything as radical as what he did in Philly but he's exactly what the Kings need, someone with foresight and progressive who realises that attempting to be somewhat relevant in the short term is exactly how you remain irrelevant for the long term

At last we agree fully!

Though whether he's allowed do what he wants/needs to do in Sacramento will be interesting.

brady23

http://clutchpoints.com/isiah-thomas-thinks-derrick-rose-spurs/

Isiah thinks the Spurs would be a fit for D.Rose, personally I'm not sure given his weakness from the 3point line and he's not a great facilitator now given his inability to garner as much attention from defenses.
However Thomas made me think of a good point that I read the other day, D.Rose needs to win a title or 2 otherwise he's possibly going to become the only MVP to not make the Hall of Fame.
He'll never be the player he was so his individual body of work will never rival future hall of famers who never won a title like a Vince Carter, Melo or T-Mac he needs to win a title or 2 to get his place so Spurs makes sense in that regard

brady23

He's close to my favourite player but what a great improvement by Rubio throughout the season, free throw % has always been decent but has increased and his 3 point shot is finally starting to reflect that his mechanics aren't bad.


Gone from shooting below 40% on 2s to over 45% too. T-Wolves were very lucky they didn't trade for D.Rose, I think Rubio could have a breakout season next year, 16-10-6 type numbers.

Hits a career high tonight, I'm going for him as most improved player next year.

NufcNavan

So Javale McGee blows multiple dunks in a game recently and it didn't make Shaqtin.

His whining seems to have worked. Best they didn't show it in case Shaq was 'bullying' him again.

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

http://clutchpoints.com/isiah-thomas-thinks-derrick-rose-spurs/

Isiah thinks the Spurs would be a fit for D.Rose, personally I'm not sure given his weakness from the 3point line and he's not a great facilitator now given his inability to garner as much attention from defenses.
However Thomas made me think of a good point that I read the other day, D.Rose needs to win a title or 2 otherwise he's possibly going to become the only MVP to not make the Hall of Fame.
He'll never be the player he was so his individual body of work will never rival future hall of famers who never won a title like a Vince Carter, Melo or T-Mac he needs to win a title or 2 to get his place so Spurs makes sense in that regard

Can't see it, unless Rose agrees to take a massive salary cut - which his ego likely won't allow. He was truly great for a couple of seasons but the harsh reality is that's all. It's very, very sad what injuries have done to his career. I saw him play as a rookie (I've posted on this before) and he was very fast, but I didn't see the improvement he had so early to be the MVP. Just sad.

brady23

HOU@GSW and SAS@OKC tonight potential to swing MVP tonight too.

As much as I don't want to admit it to myself, I'm leaning back towards Westbrook, probably should have taken a bit of Westbrook at 13/5 but that's gone now.

Cavs playing terrible, like I said a few weeks ago I like the field vs the Cavs in the East, personally I like the Raps and Wiz. I think Raps have addressed their biggest issue and are still going along ok with Lowry, their success comes down to Lowrys fitness.

I like the Wizards because their starters have played more minutes together than any starters in the league and given reduced rotations in the post season and a heavier reliance on starters I think this will bode well for them.

Although I do think the Cavs are the only team that can challenge the Spurs or Warriors, I'm not convinced they beat Wiz, Celtics and Raps in two 7 game series

mixery

brady23 wrote: »

I like the Wizards because their starters have played more minutes together than any starters in the league and given reduced rotations in the post season and a heavier reliance on starters I think this will bode well for them.

Well, in March Gortat started all the games but has averaged little minutes/statswise. The Wiz are experimenting heavily with a small ball line-up, or with Smith at the 5 as a stretch guy. This may hurt them, as they're a P&R heavy team, and without Gortat setting those screens for Wall/Beal they may not be able to create good shots easily when D tightens up. For years I've been waiting that this squad has some success, they even managed to replace Ariza pretty harmlessly with Porter/Oubre. I just hope they stay healthy during the playoffs.

brady23

mixery wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

I like the Wizards because their starters have played more minutes together than any starters in the league and given reduced rotations in the post season and a heavier reliance on starters I think this will bode well for them.

Well, in March Gortat started all the games but has averaged little minutes/statswise. The Wiz are experimenting heavily with a small ball line-up, or with Smith at the 5 as a stretch guy. This may hurt them, as they're a P&R heavy team, and without Gortat setting those screens for Wall/Beal they may not be able to create good shots easily when D tightens up. For years I've been waiting that this squad has some success, they even managed to replace Ariza pretty harmlessly with Porter/Oubre. I just hope they stay healthy during the playoffs.

I wouldn't worry about Gortats impact given the increased production by Manhimi since returning from injury plus Bogdanovic has given them alot off the bench.
I think they're 8 or 9 players deep which is essen

brady23

I wouldn't worry about Gortats impact given the increased production by Manhimi since returning from injury plus Bogdanovic has given them alot off the bench.
I think they're 8 or 9 players deep which is essentially what you need. Yeah Smith will defo hurt them on Defense but did I read he's been shooting 50% from three since the new year could be wrong but 50% over a recent period.
They run the p+l through Wall but no harm having a 2nd option and they need to try it out now I guess

ButtersSuki

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Can't see it, unless Rose agrees to take a massive salary cut - which his ego likely won't allow. He was truly great for a couple of seasons but the harsh reality is that's all. It's very, very sad what injuries have done to his career. I saw him play as a rookie (I've posted on this before) and he was very fast, but I didn't see the improvement he had so early to be the MVP. Just sad.

Certainly can't see it now - Rose is done for the season and having surgery on his knee (4th since 2012), this time for a torn meniscus on his left knee (which is the first knee he injured btw).

So he heads to free agency having played 64 games. He's been ok in fairness, a bit better than I thought with the caveat it's on a poor team. He'll struggle to find a team willing to pay him what he expects. Poor old adidas too, they can't catch a break basketball wise.


Boston now 2 wins ahead of the Cavs with 5 games left for them in the regular season (Cavs have 2 games in hand and 7 left). They play each other on Wednesday, here's hoping it's as good as the last one.

brady23

[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Rose's season in New York was superficially solid. He averaged 18.0 points per game, his highest mark since suffering a torn ACL during the 2012 playoffs, and shot 47.1 percent from the field after making just 41.2 percent of his shots his last two years in Chicago. And Rose's 17.0 PER was easily his best since the injury.[/font]
[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Much of Rose's improvement in shooting percentage can be traced to attempting just 60 3-pointers, down from 150 in 2015-16 and 271 in just 51 games in 2014-15. Since he was a sub-30 percent 3-point shooter, that was probably the right move.[/font]

[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]However, Rose's reluctance to shoot the 3 limited his value in terms of floor spacing. Add in the general uptick in offense around the league, and Rose rated better by my wins above replacement metric in 2014-15 (2.1 WARP) than this season (1.0).[/font]
[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) takes an even dimmer view of Rose's performance because the Knicks were slightly better with him on the bench (minus-3.6 points per 100 possessions, [font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]according to NBA.com/Stats[/font]) than on the court (minus-3.9). So Rose's minus-2.4 RPM [font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]ranked 53rd among point guards this season[/font].[/font]

[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Pelton hits the nail on the head with the bolded part, he's been really poor on a poor team. What the T-wolves were thinking trading for him I'll never understand, I'm sure someone will overpay him for 2 years but he's pretty much done [/font]

ButtersSuki

Russ with his 6th straight triple double and 40th of the season. He needs 1 more to tie the record, 2 to break it. I think it's as good as a done deal bar injury.

NufcNavan

PG dunked on Lebron. It was filthy.

brady23

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Russ with his 6th straight triple double and 40th of the season. He needs 1 more to tie the record, 2 to break it. I think it's as good as a done deal bar injury.

The lost at home to a non playoff team in the east by 12, I'm not sure if these type of results do his MVP candidacy harm or good.

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

The lost at home to a non playoff team in the east by 12, I'm not sure if these type of results do his MVP candidacy harm or good.

You really need to make up your mind where you stand on what he's doing! Last week you were firmly Harden for MVP, then you were Russ (after the 57point triple double game), now it sounds like you're switching again!

:pac::D

I hear what you're saying on one level but it's march - there's always weird results. Boston lost to Philly very recently. Cavs scraped home last night v Indiana, as did Houston v the Suns. There's literally dozens of examples in recent weeks of unexpected results. Winning or losing the MVP is not based on one game.

Listen to the latest open floor podcast where they discuss the MVP again. They use a lot of the same arguments I have for Russ last week...I posted mine first btw!

brady23

ButtersSuki wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

The lost at home to a non playoff team in the east by 12, I'm not sure if these type of results do his MVP candidacy harm or good.

You really need to make up your mind where you stand on what he's doing! Last week you were firmly Harden for MVP, then you were Russ (after the 57point triple double game), now it sounds like you're switching again!

:pac::D

I hear what you're saying on one level but it's march - there's always weird results. Boston lost to Philly very recently. Cavs scraped home last night v Indiana, as did Houston v the Suns. There's literally dozens of examples in recent weeks of unexpected results. Winning or losing the MVP is not based on one game.

Listen to the latest open floor podcast where they discuss the MVP again. They use a lot of the same arguments I have for Russ last week...I posted mine first btw!

Why do I need to make up my mind? 

It's so close that every game matters at this point. The huge game from Russ the other night strengthened his argument because it was a win but I'm just not sure in the mind of those who vote does a 40-15-10 night where they lose at home by 12 to a team from the East who aren't even in the playoffs still strengthen his case because the numbers are still great or does it hurt him because his team loses so badly but he gets his? 

Lol I realise that one game doesn't win or lose MVP but the balance of power shifted towards Westbrook because of that one game, most would have said it was Harden's award before that performance. 

brady23

NufcNavan wrote: »

PG dunked on Lebron. It was filthy.

LeBron dunked on PG and won the game. It was pretty filthy. 😉

All jokes aside though, that'll be a great post season match up, hopefully they meet.

NufcNavan

brady23 wrote: »

LeBron dunked on PG and won the game. It was pretty filthy. 😉

All jokes aside though, that'll be a great post season match up, hopefully they meet.

Yeah he got him back in fairness.

Epic battle. Pity Bird has let PG down so much by surrounding him with garbage.

brady23

NufcNavan wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

LeBron dunked on PG and won the game. It was pretty filthy. 😉

All jokes aside though, that'll be a great post season match up, hopefully they meet.

Yeah he got him back in fairness.

Epic battle. Pity Bird has let PG down so much by surrounding him with garbage.

You see that and wonder if Brad Steven's thinks that maybe he should have given up a bit to get him.

Horford, George, Crowder, Bradley, Thomas, Johnson, Smart, Brown, Olynk. That looks like a championship contender, not winner but a championship finalist

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

Why do I need to make up my mind? 

It's so close that every game matters at this point. The huge game from Russ the other night strengthened his argument because it was a win but I'm just not sure in the mind of those who vote does a 40-15-10 night where they lose at home by 12 to a team from the East who aren't even in the playoffs still strengthen his case because the numbers are still great or does it hurt him because his team loses so badly but he gets his? 

Lol I realise that one game doesn't win or lose MVP but the balance of power shifted towards Westbrook because of that one game, most would have said it was Harden's award before that performance. 

I added :pac::D to indicate I was teasing. I feel you'd start an argument with your shadow sometime.

You were firm in your conviction that Harden was MVP last week. then you say (incl. a LOL) that you realise one game doesn't win or lose and MVP, then say "the balance of power shifted towards Westbrook because of that one game". Hmmm. Contradictory perhaps?

brady23

ButtersSuki wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

Why do I need to make up my mind? 

It's so close that every game matters at this point. The huge game from Russ the other night strengthened his argument because it was a win but I'm just not sure in the mind of those who vote does a 40-15-10 night where they lose at home by 12 to a team from the East who aren't even in the playoffs still strengthen his case because the numbers are still great or does it hurt him because his team loses so badly but he gets his? 

Lol I realise that one game doesn't win or lose MVP but the balance of power shifted towards Westbrook because of that one game, most would have said it was Harden's award before that performance. 

I added :pac::D to indicate I was teasing. I feel you'd start an argument with your shadow sometime.

You were firm in your conviction that Harden was MVP last week. then you say (incl. a LOL) that you realise one game doesn't win or lose and MVP, then say "the balance of power shifted towards Westbrook because of that one game". Hmmm. Contradictory perhaps?

I felt he'd win it and I've said numerous times I think Westbrook would win too and like I said in my last post the race is so close that a game as memorable as Westbrooks can swing it.

The fact you think that is contradictory is just too funny. One game doesn't win it but one game can tip the balance of power when the race is so close.
If one game could win it then id be putting Devin Booker in the running after his 70 point game.

I hope that clears up the difference for you.

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

I felt he'd win it and I've said numerous times I think Westbrook would win too and like I said in my last post the race is so close that a game as memorable as Westbrooks can swing it.

The fact you think that is contradictory is just too funny. One game doesn't win it but one game can tip the balance of power when the race is so close.
If one game could win it then id be putting Devin Booker in the running after his 70 point game.

I hope that clears up the difference for you.

Even as a smart comment the Booker quip is nonsensical as he was chasing. The ribbing he's received for it across most media channels supports this.