NBA Regular Season 2016-17

brady23

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

To clarify, I think a huge amount of his thinking was correct and his thought process that decouples decision making processes from results is the right way to think.

But as we've discussed before, I think they went too far and left the cupboard too bare for too long.

I'd love to see what he'd do with the Kinicks - a club with pieces and cap room to start with.

Yeah I agree, I was just thinking similar earlier. I think in theory it best suits a small market team and would be best employed by a Utah or Milwaukee but I think the idea of doing it with a larger market team in a similar position to the Knicks would be interesting.

My only issue with the Philly project was and still is the potential long term effects on the fan base.
Obviously if Embiid and Simmons go on to become great NBA players and they win an NBA championship because of moves that are a result of the strategy then all is forgiven but if not, I would be worried that they have potentially alienated a significant amount of fans. Perhaps I'm naive to how quick Americans will regain faith though.

Kal El

brady23 wrote: »

I was probably somewhat the opposite, thinking at the time, wow that's quite clever and being for the experiment.
I agree that taking some a methodical approach to something that is innately so passionate is quite unusual and in many respects counter intuitive to what everyone learns about sport and loves about sport but I definitely applaud the organisation as a whole for trying something so radical.
Professional sports is evolving everyday whether it be stats, sports science, tactics etc, Hinkie seen an opportunity to manipulate a system which rewards being bad to further enhance your chance of winning in the long term.
Obviously I wouldn't remotely advocate it for any other team moving forward but it was great in many ways. I think it will change the NBA rules for the better and could still turn out to be a cautionary tale or a masterstroke.

I liked his way of thinking. It could have been brilliant. I would have liked to see him get the full five years. Theve been unlucky a few times, they could have Parker and Russell , Simmons and Embiid.
Sometimes you gotta think outta the box

LuckyLloyd

brady23 wrote: »

Yeah I agree, I was just thinking similar earlier. I think in theory it best suits a small market team and would be best employed by a Utah or Milwaukee but I think the idea of doing it with a larger market team in a similar position to the Knicks would be interesting.

My only issue with the Philly project was and still is the potential long term effects on the fan base.
Obviously if Embiid and Simmons go on to become great NBA players and they win an NBA championship because of moves that are a result of the strategy then all is forgiven but if not, I would be worried that they have potentially alienated a significant amount of fans. Perhaps I'm naive to how quick Americans will regain faith though.

You can get tickets for 76ers games for a couple of bucks. The last two times I attended there was a real air of defeat around the arena. He needed to supplement his strategies with a couple of 3 / 45 type veteran players. Just to win another 15 games or so each year, while still maintaining the overall thrust of the strategy. 10 - 72 is a clear indication that you've gone too far, even if you're right. Because it's still sports after all.

NufcNavan

https://gfycat.com/HeavenlyPlasticDowitcher

It's so pathetic that I can't think of one player who really would lay this guy out over this stuff. Could you just imagine him trying this crap with Anthony Mason, Charles Oakly, Kevin Willis or hell even Charles Barkley. He wouldn't live to see the next day. But in today's league......

NufcNavan

NufcNavan wrote: »

https://gfycat.com/HeavenlyPlasticDowitcher

It's so pathetic that I can't think of one player who really would lay this guy out over this stuff. Could you just imagine him trying this crap with Anthony Mason, Charles Oakly, Kevin Willis or hell even Charles Barkley. He wouldn't live to see the next day. But in today's league......

meta world peace just retired right? Russell Westbrook would go at him you'd imagine

LuckyLloyd

Draymond Green is scum, bottom line. Would love to see his clocks properly cleaned a few times during the season.

GoldFour4

NufcNavan wrote: »

https://gfycat.com/HeavenlyPlasticDowitcher

It's so pathetic that I can't think of one player who really would lay this guy out over this stuff. Could you just imagine him trying this crap with Anthony Mason, Charles Oakly, Kevin Willis or hell even Charles Barkley. He wouldn't live to see the next day. But in today's league......

It's right in front of the ref and nothing he'll get away with it without much worry. Yet he'll claim that's how he shoots. He could have broken the Suns players hand.

ButtersSuki

Klay goes for 60 in 29mins. Like the time he scored 37 in a quarter I think when he retires he'll regret not playing 40+mins and seeing where he could have pushed that out too.

ButtersSuki

First player to score 60 in under 30 mins in 24 second shot clock era.

"Only" scored 8 3's. When I saw the 60 figure first I assumed he had hit 10-15, makes it more impressive. GS also put up 45 assists. Still for he remains their most impressive stat; despite all the guys they have who can create their own shot as a team their spacing and passing is 2nd to none.

Kal El

Williams with the Lakers heating up, first player since Kobe to back to back 38+. Its so much better this season watching the Lakers, we might lose but we dont have the blow outs of last year

K.O.Kiki

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-1OCn2rZv4

Melo's ability to get shots like this off is mesmerising at times. Squared up, no space, good contest, bang nonetheless.

He's on this list by Paul Pierce.

K.O.Kiki

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Klay goes for 60 in 29mins. Like the time he scored 37 in a quarter I think when he retires he'll regret not playing 40+mins and seeing where he could have pushed that out too.

https://twitter.com/tomhaberstroh/status/806148842563452928

brady23

K.O.Kiki wrote: »

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-1OCn2rZv4

Melo's ability to get shots like this off is mesmerising at times. Squared up, no space, good contest, bang nonetheless.

He's on this list by Paul Pierce.

That list is just so generic, I thought Pierce would tell the The Truth.
He could throw in so many good ones, White Chocolate, Crawford, Iverson, Grant Hill.

LuckyLloyd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs7RgmUIYoA

Remember people, this is why we root against Golden State come playoff time.

LuckyLloyd

So the Knicks have won seven of their last nine to move to 12-9. Cleveland tomorrow before a five game road trip in the south west. If they could grab three of that stretch I think things would be augering well for a playoff spot. The big question is whether everyone is happy with their current roles - Rose is the guy moving into a more role type position. If he stays content with that, a good season lies ahead.

LuckyLloyd

Meanwhile the Bulls are now 11-10 against the easiest schedule in the league with Jimmy in godmode and Wade shooting 36% from three on 4 attempts per 36.

The regression is going to be rough, and it's hard to be positive at this point.

ButtersSuki

GS put the Clippers away easily AGAIN. They really have them figured out. No matter how good the Clipps get at this stage with GS I think it's as much psychological as anything.

ButtersSuki

ButtersSuki wrote: »

GS put the Clippers away easily AGAIN. They really have them figured out. No matter how good the Clipps get at this stage with GS I think it's as much psychological as anything.

Just watched it there.

Nothing to do with GSW.

Clippers have been trash since they lost the Detroit game.

Just like the first Pacers loss, they had 9 turnovers at the end of the first quarter.
So many of the turnovers was a player jumping and forced to throw it before landing.... amateur stuff.

Their offence is just too static and predictable, a bit of ball movement on the perimeter with a few dribble hand offs but just reverting to isolation plays, Blake mid range, Crawford circus shots.
Meanwhile teams like the Warriors are driving kicking, driving again, pump fake, extra pass...... numerous easy buckets and open shots from good ball movement.

Clippers offence consists of the same end results.

I had a bit of optimism early doors but they're a million miles off the Spurs and the GSW.

I'd actually put them below the Rockets and Grizzles which puts them 6th-8th, zero chance they'll fall outside of that with the drop off in quality but they're just so one dimensional in the half court and reliant on Jordan for boards.

I think it'll be a final one and done for Paul and Griffin and the end of the road for this squad.

Not at all impressed by Rivers either, his son plays too much, gets blocked once a game and bricks his jump shots, they have one rebounder and the offence is brutal.

Kal El

gilberto_eire wrote: »

Just watched it there.

Nothing to do with GSW.

Clippers have been trash since they lost the Detroit game.

Just like the first Pacers loss, they had 9 turnovers at the end of the first quarter.
So many of the turnovers was a player jumping and forced to throw it before landing.... amateur stuff.

Their offence is just too static and predictable, a bit of ball movement on the perimeter with a few dribble hand offs but just reverting to isolation plays, Blake mid range, Crawford circus shots.
Meanwhile teams like the Warriors are driving kicking, driving again, pump fake, extra pass...... numerous easy buckets and open shots from good ball movement.

Clippers offence consists of the same end results.

I had a bit of optimism early doors but they're a million miles off the Spurs and the GSW.

I'd actually put them below the Rockets and Grizzles which puts them 6th-8th, zero chance they'll fall outside of that with the drop off in quality but they're just so one dimensional in the half court and reliant on Jordan for boards.

I think it'll be a final one and done for Paul and Griffin and the end of the road for this squad.

Not at all impressed by Rivers either, his son plays too much, gets blocked once a game and bricks his jump shots, they have one rebounder and the offence is brutal.

Griffin and Hayward to Lakers next year. The rebuild finished

brady23

It looks like NYK are headed for a massive fallout.
Melo is one of the most accommodating NBA players with media, even when the "posse" issue arose he did his best to not criticise and perhaps even defend Jackson to an extent but recent comments made by Jackson regarding Melo's ability to execute the triangle look to have offended him. He was dismissive when questioned and then left some pretty suggestive things on IG and twitter.

I think the question now could be "Does Dolan want to keep Melo or Phil around?"
I think if they want to keep Rose, they may as well keep Melo and go for broke but if they want to move him, they should let Rose walk and try move Noah too then rebuild with Porzingis and Jackson at the helm.
It's going to be an interesting few months, neither Dolan or Jackson have not covered themselves in glory. I would personally just get rid of Jackson. He's made some poor personnel decisions outside of KP and he's just caused more controversy than anything.
Keep Melo and KP. Make a run at CP3, Griffin or whoever else next summer, let Rose walk, move Noah and give the reigns to a young intelligent GM, a GM version of Brad Stevens would do the trick.

LuckyLloyd

If they were going to trade Melo they should have done it during the previous two years. What's particularly nonsensical about Jackson's comments is that they are playing well. They've won 8 of the last 11, and look like a ~50 win team potentially. Why he would potentially destabilise the situation is beyond me.

I think they should keep the roster as is. Let them play and go to the playoffs. Rose's contract expires at the end of the season so you can get better next season by letting him go and making a run at a max elsewhere. Rose may even restructure way below a max too.

I just don't get it I guess. I don't think they've created a Championship roster by any means, but they have a playoff roster for the first time in years and look way improved from last year. There should be feel good vibes around the whole thing.

I mean, I absolutely agree that the path to a Championship roster is not this. But if you were going Championship you simply would not have done what they did in the offseason. It should have been:

- trade Melo for picks
- trade Lopez for a couple of backcourt pieces with short term contacts (doing the Rose deal without Noah would have been fine)
- go with Porzingis at the 5 and aim to use a mixture of picks and max pickups in summer 2017 to slingshot to a championship roster

It's too late for that now so I have no idea what Jackson is trying to achieve with those comments.

brady23

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

If they were going to trade Melo they should have done it during the previous two years. What's particularly nonsensical about Jackson's comments is that they are playing well. They've won 8 of the last 11, and look like a ~50 win team potentially. Why he would potentially destabilise the situation is beyond me.

I think they should keep the roster as is. Let them play and go to the playoffs. Rose's contract expires at the end of the season so you can get better next season by letting him go and making a run at a max elsewhere. Rose may even restructure way below a max too.

I just don't get it I guess. I don't think they've created a Championship roster by any means, but they have a playoff roster for the first time in years and look way improved from last year. There should be feel good vibes around the whole thing.

I mean, I absolutely agree that the path to a Championship roster is not this. But if you were going Championship you simply would not have done what they did in the offseason. It should have been:

- trade Melo for picks
- trade Lopez for a couple of backcourt pieces with short term contacts (doing the Rose deal without Noah would have been fine)
- go with Porzingis at the 5 and aim to use a mixture of picks and max pickups in summer 2017 to slingshot to a championship roster

It's too late for that now so I have no idea what Jackson is trying to achieve with those comments.

I've watched them a couple of times and they're just not very good imo. They seem to be slipping back into the KP as the last option similar to the start of the season even though he should get a decent chunk of plays run for him

Their record is flattering to deceive. Generally points differential is a relatively accurate indicator of long term success and as it currently stands with the Knicks having a -2.7 which has been roughly the same for quite a few weeks now.
They are the only team in an eastern playoff spot with a minus points differential.
Positives for that would be that there are no teams outside the playoff spots in the East with a plus but there are some teams closer to 0, namely Atlanta.
Take last year's eastern conference, points differential was correct from spots 1-8 except Miami but there was a 4 way tie so they could have been 6th and they have the 7th best differental.
My point is perhaps the Knicks are getting better but the numbers don't indicate that they're as good as their record suggests, perhaps they're doing a Memphis who always do better than their points differential but I would think they'll struggle to make the playoffs unless they make a change

ButtersSuki

Came across some surprising stats:

This season has seen the biggest year on year % increase in attempted 3s since they moved the line closer to the basket in 1994.
The entire League is averaging over 30% of total shots from 3. :eek: (crazy IMO)
Both the Rockets and the Cavs are on course to beat GS's record for most made 3s (set last year). GS aren't too far behind.

LuckyLloyd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGYanYS5fIw

LuckyLloyd

brady23 wrote: »

I've watched them a couple of times and they're just not very good imo. They seem to be slipping back into the KP as the last option similar to the start of the season even though he should get a decent chunk of plays run for him

Their record is flattering to deceive. Generally points differential is a relatively accurate indicator of long term success and as it currently stands with the Knicks having a -2.7 which has been roughly the same for quite a few weeks now.
They are the only team in an eastern playoff spot with a minus points differential.
Positives for that would be that there are no teams outside the playoff spots in the East with a plus but there are some teams closer to 0, namely Atlanta.
Take last year's eastern conference, points differential was correct from spots 1-8 except Miami but there was a 4 way tie so they could have been 6th and they have the 7th best differental.
My point is perhaps the Knicks are getting better but the numbers don't indicate that they're as good as their record suggests, perhaps they're doing a Memphis who always do better than their points differential but I would think they'll struggle to make the playoffs unless they make a change

Good analysis that I came across yesterday afternoon myself after posting the above. Explains why betting lines are consistently selling them short. Honestly I hadn't seen a huge amount wrong in terms of watching their current run, which is why stats beat the eye test each time!!

Pretty sure melo has a no trade clause though and he has said a few tomes he does not want to leave the Knicks. I think Jackson does want melo gone but he just any do it right now

Paully D

Mallory Gigantic Frisbee wrote: »

Pretty sure melo has a no trade clause though and he has said a few tomes he does not want to leave the Knicks. I think Jackson does want melo gone but he just any do it right now

Melo should have joined the Bulls a couple of years ago. They were legitimately one pure scorer away from being able to knock the Heat off.

It would have worked out better for the Knicks too as they'd have been able to begin their rebuild properly.

Despite the guaranteed money, given the way things have gone since, I'm sure Anthony probably does think of what might have been.

brady23

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

I've watched them a couple of times and they're just not very good imo. They seem to be slipping back into the KP as the last option similar to the start of the season even though he should get a decent chunk of plays run for him

Their record is flattering to deceive. Generally points differential is a relatively accurate indicator of long term success and as it currently stands with the Knicks having a -2.7 which has been roughly the same for quite a few weeks now.
They are the only team in an eastern playoff spot with a minus points differential.
Positives for that would be that there are no teams outside the playoff spots in the East with a plus but there are some teams closer to 0, namely Atlanta.
Take last year's eastern conference, points differential was correct from spots 1-8 except Miami but there was a 4 way tie so they could have been 6th and they have the 7th best differental.
My point is perhaps the Knicks are getting better but the numbers don't indicate that they're as good as their record suggests, perhaps they're doing a Memphis who always do better than their points differential but I would think they'll struggle to make the playoffs unless they make a change

Good analysis that I came across yesterday afternoon myself after posting the above. Explains why betting lines are consistently selling them short. Honestly I hadn't seen a huge amount wrong in terms of watching their current run, which is why stats beat the eye test each time!!

Have you got a link? Nate Silver post?

Points differential is generally used to establish the handicap lines. Sometimes there will be discretion allowed obviously, such as, coming off a back to back, going to places of higher altitude ie Denver but generally they won't move too much from the points differential maybe 10-15%

LuckyLloyd

brady23 wrote: »

Have you got a link? Nate Silver post?

Points differential is generally used to establish the handicap lines. Sometimes there will be discretion allowed obviously, such as, coming off a back to back, going to places of higher altitude ie Denver but generally they won't move too much from the points differential maybe 10-15%

Was pointed in the direction on another forum, and it was explained as a major data point when setting lines like you say (I hadn't been aware of this I have to admit).

They currently have a schedule adjusted net rating (as per basketball reference) of -1.61. Obviously, some teams are just better at the end of games than others, and Melo teams have done well in this regard in the past.

But, in the last 20 years, there have been three teams with a rating that poor who ended up with a .500 record or better:

2015-16 Grizzlies - 42 wins; massive injuries, they were obviously a good team when healthy
2013-14 Nets - 44 wins; Lopez played 17 games, Deron played 64 games, KG played 54 games, Kirilenko played 45 games
2004-05 Nets - 42 wins; Richard Jefferson played only 33 games, roster was very thin and not very good: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NJN/2005.html

So that's definitely not a good sign for projecting the Knicks. And it's not like it's just their bench dragging them down in games that were already decided.

Their main starting lineup is the only lineup with more than 52 minutes played, and it has a -2.1 net rating. They've used 5 other variations with the starters and there's been mixed results over small samples.



Looks like they could be decent if they went Melo at the 4, Porzingis at the 5 long-term, but I'm skeptical that will actually happen given what Noah is being paid.

And again - I really didn't realise any of this yesterday morning until I was exposed to these data points. I've been watching sections of their games and looking at the results and dumbly thinking 'it's going well'. Fascinating how perception when looking at the games in real time can be so disconnected from easily referencable statistical comparisons.

LuckyLloyd

Chris Paul runs the same basic play five times in a row in two minutes and secures five easy buckets:

https://streamable.com/d2dc

ButtersSuki

The RW tripdub streak might be coming to an end v Boston

GoldFour4

ButtersSuki wrote: »

The RW tripdub streak might be coming to an end v Boston

Yep, a mere 37pts 12reb and 6ast for Westbrook last night.

ButtersSuki

malistheman wrote: »

Yep, a mere 37pts 12reb and 6ast for Westbrook last night.

I didn't mean it like that , just that the streak was likely ending as it was early in the 4th Q and he "only" had 4 assists. Saw this crazy stat on Boston that they haven't let anyone have a trip dub against them in 226 games. Strange stat, but interesting nonetheless.

In other Boston news, there were reports overnight that Boogie is going to Boston in a 3 way trade, report came from a 3rd team official. I know it's the millionth Boogie trade rumour this year alone but the journo seemed to think that it was more credible than usual.

LuckyLloyd

Westbrook's first 24 games have been utterly incredible. His usage rate is an insane 41.4%, and despite that massive 10 point increase since last year his efficiency numbers are still much improved. If you took an MVP vote now, he's it.

brady23

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Westbrook's first 24 games have been utterly incredible. His usage rate is an insane 41.4%, and despite that massive 10 point increase since last year his efficiency numbers are still much improved. If you took an MVP vote now, he's it.

He strolls to MVP if it's announced now but if Davis with Holiday keeps winning games and Harden keeps the Rockets going, not to mention Durant having a TS% of almost 70% insane efficiency they'll be in the conversation especially if OKC slack off which I suspect they might.
It's funny LBJ isn't even in the conversation and he's arguably having one of his more well rounded seasons.

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Chris Paul runs the same basic play five times in a row in two minutes and secures five easy buckets:

https://streamable.com/d2dc

I read somewhere that a year or two ago they did the same play 4 times agains the Spurs with the same result

LuckyLloyd

https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/why-an-all-in-one-defensive-stat-is-still-the-nbas-holy-grail

quick and interesting read on the difficulty of finding an all encompassing defensive stat

LuckyLloyd

https://3ball.io/

Also this site is...this site is beyond words

ButtersSuki

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://3ball.io/

Also this site is...this site is beyond words

Just showing as blank for me....am I missing something?

mixery

working for me and I concur, it's really good!

LuckyLloyd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGgfVwfxBQQ

Porzingis increasingly looking like the real ****ing deal imo

brady23

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGgfVwfxBQQ

Porzingis increasingly looking like the real ****ing deal imo

That jab step, crossover from the 3 point line and pull up from the elbow is just scary for a guy of his size. His handle is ridiculous, far smoother handle than Dirk. The more I watch the more I think maybe KAT isn't the best from that draft. The numbers say he is but that's down to his rebounding being that much better. I think offensively KP is more talented it's just a question of can he get that much better from a rebounding and defensive IQ standpoint, I think that's one thing Noah will really help with

LuckyLloyd

brady23 wrote: »

That jab step, crossover from the 3 point line and pull up from the elbow is just scary for a guy of his size. His handle is ridiculous, far smoother handle than Dirk. The more I watch the more I think maybe KAT isn't the best from that draft. The numbers say he is but that's down to his rebounding being that much better. I think offensively KP is more talented it's just a question of can he get that much better from a rebounding and defensive IQ standpoint, I think that's one thing Noah will really help with

Yeah, he doesn't play like a 7'3" guy whatsoever. I'd say he's already a pretty good rim protector. Have no doubt his instincts in that regard will sharpen up with experience.

LuckyLloyd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqA42Z2IKh0

So this happened. :eek:

LuckyLloyd

New seven year CBA agreement reached

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18280618/nba-players-union-reach-tentative-new-labor-agreement

Needs to go to a vote on both sides (players and owners)

Main points seem to be:

The league's average salary is expected to jump from the $5 million range to nearly $9 million annually, with significant jumps -- approximately 45 percent -- planned for rookie-scale deals, minimum-salary contracts and some free-agent exceptions, including the midlevel exception.

In addition to those planned hikes, sources said teams will have the ability to offer designated veteran star players contract extensions up to five seasons in length (and in some cases six seasons), greatly enhancing the ability of small-market teams to retain their best players. Starting in July, teams such as the Indiana Pacers and Sacramento Kings will be able to offer lucrative long-term extensions to Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins, respectively. These extensions have been modeled after the NBA's Designated Player Rookie Extension rules.

There will be no amnesty clause in the new CBA, sources say. There have been amnesty clauses in the past two CBAs, allowing teams to waive players and have their salaries removed from the salary cap.

The annual split of basketball-related income, known as BRI, will remain at the current 49 percent to 51 percent, sources said. The same holds for the early-entry age for the NBA draft, which will remain at 19, with the stipulation that American players must also be one year removed from high school to be draft eligible.

Maximum roster size, though, will rise from 15 to 17 players, with the extra slots earmarked for players on "two-way contracts," as seen in the NHL. Those contracts stipulate that a player's salary is based on NBA minimums when the player is "up" and an estimated $75,000 when the player is on assignment in the NBA Development League.

Paully D

RIP Craig Sager.

Itssoeasy

Paully D wrote: »

RIP Craig Sager.

If you're basketball fans like We are you can't have not come across Craig sager during watching the game.

RIP Craig sager.

rushfan

Itssoeasy wrote:

If you're basketball fans like We are you can't have not come across Craig sager during watching the game.

Absolutely, used to especially love the interviews with Pop. RIP.

brady23

"During Conley's absence, Memphis has blitzed teams by almost 15 points per 100 possessions with Gasol on the floor"

Their schedule hasn't been incredibly tough but still that is ridiculous given the rest of their line up. Gasol is unbelievable easily the most underrated superstar in the league, he'll never even get in the MVP conversation but he deserves to.

Also Embiid is one of only 2 rookies with an above average PER, KAT did last year but it's not very common with rookies in the modern era plus Philly is outscoring teams with him in the line up, (even more unusual for a rookie).
Let's hope Simmons can do something similar.
Hinkie knows all!

ButtersSuki

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqA42Z2IKh0

So this happened. :eek:

Until you see a guy like Lopez in the flesh you really have no idea how big (and wide) he is. Amazing athleticism.

RIP Sager too btw.