November 2016 Boards forecast contest

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

New low max of 5.0 at Knock on 17th (5.2 Mullingar).

May not be the lowest, we shall see.

Won't last long!

pauldry

Ballyhaise didnt get past 4c today so 3.8c may be new min max.

M.T. Cranium

That's confirmed, 3.8 Ballyhaise on Friday 18th is new low max.

JCX BXC

Met Eireann saying that temps could stay close to freezing in anywhere with lingering fog tomorrow.

DOCARCH

JCX BXC wrote: »

Met Eireann saying that temps could stay close to freezing in anywhere with lingering fog tomorrow.

Going to be some low high temps today. I don't think I have seen Oak Park above 0c today?

M.T. Cranium

For the record, 3.7 at Moorepark on Saturday 19th, but looks like today will shatter that mark. A new MIN is also going to be reported from this morning, at least -4 at several locations. That was starting to show at midnight lows for yesterday but nothing then below the current -3.0 from earlier in the month.

The IMT has fallen to 6.6 after 19th and probably to 6.0 by next update through Monday.

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

For the record, 3.7 at Moorepark on Saturday 19th, but looks like today will shatter that mark. A new MIN is also going to be reported from this morning, at least -4 at several locations. That was starting to show at midnight lows for yesterday but nothing then below the current -3.0 from earlier in the month.

The IMT has fallen to 6.6 after 19th and probably to 6.0 by next update through Monday.

Looks like you are set to set the record for the maximum single month score with your weather prediction MT

M.T. Cranium

In June 2013 John mac scored 94 without any benefit of minimum progression scoring adjustments.

Looking back, I found several cases of 90 and one where Con scored 92.

That was going back as far as the 2012 contest.

I would be surprised to do much better than 80 in this month, maybe mid 80s if lucky on the MIN.

Jpmarn

New low max temperature for Casement 1.9c low -4.0c Shannon max only 2.2C for Sunday 20th.

M.T. Cranium

-5 at Markree for several hours overnight.

Expect a lower max at Oak Park for Sunday when all data in.

DOCARCH

Max of 0.4c at Oak Park yesterday. Min of -4.3c at Markree.

pauldry

Markree was -6c at 8am this morning.

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

Markree was -6c at 8am this morning.

MT's score is getting better by the minute

M.T. Cranium

Okay, the good news about that is that I was about dead last in the scoring table after October so no real threat to anyone above the halfway point no matter what happens. The new MIN appears to be --5.8 at Markree. As low as that is, it appears that we don't need to use the "mercy rule" for scores as I see a 20, a 19, and two at 17. My score would be 13 on that. If it goes colder, there's one (Pauldry) at -6.1 and my guess was -6.5. The mercy rule would probably kick in if we have a reading a bit lower than my guess (otherwise maybe needed to boost a few lower half scores by a couple of points).

We had a rather modified version of this mercy rule in Dec 2010, what I did that year was to guarantee 20, 15 and 10 points. As it happened, the winner that month had only 55 points (Danno who also won the yearly contest), he scored well on everything but the IMT which was -0.4, there again the boosted scores dropped off fairly fast (the three closest were something like 2.0, 2.4 and 2.7). It was after that month that I inflated the minimum progression to its more robust nature that we have all come to admire. There will be the odd time when just one person or maybe two or three get a bit of a shaft from that, let's say the MIN is -7.0 for sake of argument, then the five highest raw scores would be 15, 11, 9, 8 and 7; the minimum progression scores would be 18, 17, 16, 15 and 14; the gains for those five would be 3, 6, 7, 7 and 7. I suspect that lower down the table the gains would start approaching 10 points. But that's a hypothetical for now. It all evens out over the course of a year, and produces the desired result that each month will be fairly close in terms of average scoring (so it won't matter as much which months you miss or do badly in).

So, on to the week three reporting ...

IMT is now 6.06 (or 6.1) after a very cold week at 4.2 (3.0 below normal for the period 15th-21st). If this averages 5.0 now to end of month, the outcome will be 5.7 and if it averages 4.0, 5.4. Looking at the model runs, I think it will be in that range somewhere but it could stay close to 6 if some of the nights are not bitterly cold.

PRC is now at 75% of normal, with the week at 92%, dry in the southeast to rather wet far north. This looks to be anchoring a finish that may not get past where it is now, or fall off to where some mercy scoring would kick in (not much, we have several forecasts in the 70s).

SUN is at 124% of normal with this past week 112% (Shannon was below average otherwise the rest of the stations were well above normal). This could finish even a bit higher, it would only take two rather sunny days and bits of sunshine most other days to keep the values in this range. The value that would kick off the mercy rule (and a modest one point inflation of most scores) would be 130%, so these scores are probably more or less determined now.

MAX of 16.9 and MIN of --5.8 so far.

As to the bonus, scoring there is settled. The low max of 0.4 at Oak Park as reported can only drop further so the three lowest guesses (MTC at 0.2, Joe Public at 1.1, Rameire at 1.5) will gain the ten points, then it will be waterways, JD and dacogawa with 9. From there to one point, I will go in pairs for the rest of the scores. MrSkinner and 200motels will get 8 points along with NormaL.

So as to this rumored very high score, that can be no higher than 94 but that would need more rain and less sun than I'm expecting, and a direct hit on the IMT. The more likely total would be something like 85. And there would then be several other scores in that same vicinity. Dacogawa can still finish with 93 and looks set to score at least as high as me or maybe higher (his IMT is offset by other things being closer).

pauldry

Already -3c in Markree

At 9

Could be a -6 or -7c if it stays clear and fog doesnt keep it at -4c

John mac

-6 in Sligo and 7 in Dublin airport at 06:00 :eek:

pauldry

-6c in Markree the lowest it got

Athenry also had a good attempt but think it fell short

A -8c sounds crazy but a few more cold nights n it cud happen

M.T. Cranium

IMT currently on 5.84 C after 23 days and probably about 5.7 after today. IMT minimum progression requires scores to run 23,22,21 etc with doubles only as needed by number of entries. We have just the right number of entries (22) not to double up but the second adjusted score is a three-way tie. This is going to create an odd result that would actually turn out better if the IMT rose now instead of falling further. But I will just go with the rules as the only person to face any harm from the outcome is me, and I am so far out of the contest that it doesn't matter even philosophically, probably wouldn't be any different if like last year it was a scoring issue near the end for me. So, can pretty much say that the three forecasts at 6.2 will get 22 points whatever unless that's worth more than 22 (an IMT of 6.0 would give them 23). At this point, if we are at 5.6 now and 5.5 after Friday, which seems conservative, then it would take an average of 8.5 from Saturday to Wednesday 30th to get back to 6.0 and I can't see that happening although it may try to get that warm by Tuesday.

The Battle of MIN will determine the outcome, everything else could probably be scored right now.

pauldry

-7.3c Markree as a guess

M.T. Cranium

It has been -6 every hour since midnight at Markree, up to and including 0700h, and -4 at Ballyhaise and Mountdillon for several hours.

John mac

-7 in sligo and 8 in pheonix park at 08:00

dexter647

John mac wrote: »

-7 in sligo and 8 in pheonix park at 08:00

For such a small country that's an amazing difference:eek:

M.T. Cranium

For the contest, -6.3 the new low on Thursday 24th at Markree, not sure if that was the Thursday morning low or recorded at midnight on the way down to something perhaps a bit colder, more about that later.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for November 2016

Most scores required slight adjustments for minimum progression, the values being used to generate the scores are 5.6 or lower, 16.9, -7.3, 060, 135 and --0.3 or lower.
Note that the IMT adjustments converged on the raw scores below 10, so those will change to minimum progression scores if result is lower than 5.6.

* denotes scores adjusted for minimum progression.

The relationship of sunshine scores to minimum progression will only change if the actual value is below 135%. Anything higher will maintain these scores.


FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS __ TOTALS


M.T. Cranium ___________23*_ 15*_ 19*_ 11*_ 08*___ 10 _____ 86 ... (73)
Dacogawa _____________ 22*_ 15*_ 16*_ 15*_ 08*___ 09 _____ 85 ... (65)


pauldry _______________ 17*_ 10*_ 18^_ 05*_ 07*___ 07 _____ 64 ... (42)
MrSkinner _____________ 22*_ 10*_ 03*_ 09*_ 10*___ 08 _____ 62 ... (45)
Carnacalla _____________ 22*_ 06*_ 07*_ 12*_ 10*___ 03 _____ 60 ... (40)

Joe Public ______________14*_ 07*_ 14*_ 07*_ 06*___ 10 _____ 58 ... (37)
JD_____ (-5) ___________12*_ 13*_ 15*_ 07*_ 07*___ 09 _ 63-5= 58 .. (46)
DOCARCH ______________14*_ 20*_ 08*_ 05*_ 04*___ 04 _____ 55 ... (42)
Rikand ________________ 12*_ 12*_ 09*_ 06*_ 09*___ 05 _____ 53 ... (39)

Jpmarn ____ (-2) ________19*_ 02*_ 02*_ 13*_ 09*___ 06 _ 51-2 = 49 .. (39)
Rameire _______________ 02*_ 18*_ 14*_ 02*_ 02*___ 10 _____ 48 ... (31)

Norma L _______________ 09 _ 20*_ 03*_ 04*_ 03*___ 09 _____ 48 ... (42)

Con Sensus _____________12*_ 10*_ 07*_ 06*_ 06*___ 06 _____ 47 ... (29)

Kindred Spirit ___________ 08 _ 18*_ 03*_ 11*_ 05*___ 01 _____ 46 ... (38)
Sunflower3 _____________15*_ 05*_ 11*_ 02*_ 02*___ 06 _____ 41 ... (21)

sryanbruen _____________16*_ 08*_ 02*_ 03*_ 05*___ 05 _____ 39 ... (26)
200motels ______________03 _ 13*_ 00 __14*_ 01*___ 08 _____ 39 ... (33)
waterways ______________09 _ 11*_ 03*_ 04*_ 03*___ 09 _____ 39 ... (29)
john mac _______________10 _ 04*_ 11*_ 05*_ 06*___ 02 _____ 38 ... (19)
Tae laidir _______________05 _ 02*_ 07*_ 08*_ 07*___ 07 _____ 36 ... (24)
mickger844posts ________ 19*_ 05*_ 00 __02*_ 03*___ 06 _____ 35 ... (25)
Lumi __________________ 08 _ 03*_ 12*_ 04*_ 02*___ 03 _____ 32 ... (25)

Dasa29 ________________12*_ 01*_ 02*_ 06*_ 02*___ 02 _____ 25 ... (20)
Bsal ___________________07 _ 01*_ 01*_ 05*_ 03*___ 05 _____ 22 ... (18)
__________________________________________________________

Just FYI, raw scores from the values used are shown in brackets. These would be scores if no minimum progression had been applied. Late penalties are not applied to these raw scores. Note if you saw this post before 1230h on Saturday, I edited the raw scores with new MIN of --7.3.

This table will be reproduced with adjusted scores from the actual end of month stats. I don't think it will change much and it looks to me as though almost all the top half of the annual table will be dropping this month so your add-on score will be your current second lowest, for many in the top half of the table, that's above 50.

So the ground you're losing to upstarts like me and Dacogawa can be assessed on that basis rather than this month's scores.

pauldry

way to go kicking cons butt most of us

M.T. Cranium

Updated the provisional scoring table as MIN now --7.3 C at Markree on Friday.

Although it does not change the BONUS scoring, the new low max was --0.3 at Ballyhaise. (my guess of 0.2 Mullingar 25th was right on for date, wrong location and too warm which was probably not the expected outcome; Mullingar warmed up to 7 C after a slightly frosty start, Ballyhaise stayed in the fog, second coldest overall was the 0.4 at Oak Park on Monday 20th.

The annual update will be interesting but as I mentioned most of the contenders will be adding on their second lowest scores from the first ten months and dropping this one, so Dac and I will not gain all that much on many (Con may stay in front for that same reason). Our gain in the less fancied total score portion will however be full value. I just had a look and on current scoring, the top six add the following to their best 9 of 11 scores ... (con adds 65) sunflower3 adds 61 and stays first, Lumi adds 57 and stays second, mickger844posts adds 39 and drops to seventh, MrSkinner adds the 62 from Nov as his second lowest was and remains 57 and he moves to third, waterways adds 57 and stays fifth, and Sryanbruen adds 52 and stays sixth. Rameire and Tae laidir become tied for ninth. Dacogawa moves up from ninth to fourth using his high November score. I will be moving up to about 10th and Pauldry will move up about five spots.

In the total score division, MrSkinner widens his lead by 21 over sunflower3 (now third) and by 30 over Lumi (now fourth) and is now just five behind Con. Dacogawa went from ninth to second although 17 behind MrSkinner. Most others will stay close to current rankings, and it appears that I have moved up from 17th to 7th, while Pauldry will move from 19th to 12th. Joe Public will move up a few ranks too.

I can't foresee any changes in the provisional scoring table now other than to adjust the raw scores if sunshine or precip are more extreme than I estimated, or if the IMT comes in lower. I could gain another two points if IMT warms rapidly to 5.8, at the moment it has fallen to 5.66 and I estimate it will be 5.6 after today and for the next day or two but it could perhaps drift back up to 5.8. If at 5.6 after 28 days then 8.0 on 29th and 30th would adjust it to 5.8. Some sort of major rise in the IMT to about 6.0 would not change much at all as the field would just lose the minimum progression in favour of actual scores for IMT, I can only see any scoring impact from 6.1 upward and that would require an average of 9.8 from Sunday to Wednesday. Barring an unpredicted deluge that would undo the precip scores, these provisionals seem to be heading for confirmed status on the 2nd of December.

M.T. Cranium

I'll have a week four report tomorrow but can say that IMT is 5.6(2) after 27 days, from here it will most likely finish between 5.6 and 5.8 which will lock in all scores in the provisional IMT except possibly mine which can go up in that range.

There has been very little new precip since the week three update so that will come in around 60%, the sunshine will be close to double the normal which will inflate that to about 135%. Those are the values used in the provisional scoring too, and any further pushing of the envelopes there will maintain scoring, as would a slight deflation towards our extreme values which I think are 71% PRC and 125% SUN. Basically the scores are locked in if PRC is less than 68% and SUN is greater than 130, changes now would be slight.

You'll see that I discussed what this all means for annual scoring in a previous post. Basically most of the field will be drawing on the well for a better score than this month, I think only four of us are using November rather than some earlier month. It's an oddball distribution of scores testing the mathematical limits of how this mercy rule would affect consensus scoring, I don't think consensus could possibly score lower and I don't think anyone has ever said that before.

Tae laidir

And Norma could also beat Con, which I believe is also a first.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, it happened because NormaL went with a milder MAX and a colder low MAX, which cancelled out the advantage Con had in the cool, dry and sunny average of all guesses. The low MAX was, however, just my subjective guess as to what that value would normally be and I am not sure if that was correct (I think it was 2.5 C, but I figured quite often there would be a value like that towards end of November in either Knock or Ballyhaise, maybe if I had said 4.0 there and scored NormaL about 6, the difference would be reversed.) If I can get a more accurate value I will change that in the scoring since it makes no difference to the contest what NormaL scores.

Now, as to week four stats ...

IMT still on 5.6 and seems unlikely to change more than 0.1 now. The fourth week was a chilly 4.2 which averaged 2.5 below normal, Casement came closer to normal than the rest.

PRC has plunged all the way to 57% of normal thanks to an almost dry week (4% of normal, most of that in slight amounts at Belmullet and Malin Head). That will probably settle at 55%.

SUN has been almost summer-like in daily averages, this past week at 183% of normal brought the month to 139% of normal. This will finish somewhere around that value.

So, unless I have any revisions to make in MAX or MIN, the scoring is already locked in, I will go over my calculations on the second of December when I publish the final scoring table to make sure all the scoring is accurate, otherwise the only change could be if IMT creeps up to 5.7 since it was scored from 5.6.

So watch for a final report and scoring tables with the annual scoring table update, which should reveal a very close contest in the best 10 of 12, a somewhat more comfortable lead for MrSkinner in the total score division.

Once again, I will mention that there is a winter forecast contest thread open as well, that closes a day or two after the December thread (penalty free phase at least).

M.T. Cranium

IMT confirmed at 5.5, barely made that from 5.46.