November 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for November 2016


The Monthly Summary confirms my estimates earlier and the MAX and MIN we were expecting.

IMT 5.5, MAX 16.9 MIN --7.3, PRC 056, SUN 145 Low Max --0.3

After checking the provisional scoring against the table of entries to make sure all was in order, I boosted all MIN scores by one to make them similar in logic to the boosted MAX scores, and that required an adjustment of some MAX scores. Some PRC scores were boosted by one point. The only other difference was that some lower IMT scores changed from raw to adjusted as the base dropped from 5.6 to 5.5, also the high score that had been 23 raw became 23 adjusted. (The IMT min progression is 23, 22, 21 etc).

I also dropped the raw scores that are posted for your information, by 4 points as IMT, PRC and SUN were a bit more extreme than I had used for the first set of calculations. The raw score in brackets would be what the normal scoring system without adjustments would have yielded for your predictions.


FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS __ TOTALS (raw)


M.T. Cranium ___________23*_ 16*_ 20*_ 11*_ 08*___ 10 _____ 88 ... (69)
Dacogawa _____________ 22*_ 16*_ 17*_ 15*_ 08*___ 09 _____ 87 ... (61)

pauldry _______________ 17*_ 10*_ 19*_ 06*_ 07*___ 07 _____ 66 ... (38)
MrSkinner _____________ 22*_ 10*_ 04*_ 11*_ 10*___ 08 _____ 65 ... (41)
Carnacalla _____________ 22*_ 06*_ 08*_ 12*_ 10*___ 03 _____ 61 ... (36)
JD_____ (-5) ___________12*_ 14*_ 16*_ 08*_ 07*___ 09 _ 66-5= 61 .. (42)
Joe Public ______________14*_ 07*_ 15*_ 08*_ 06*___ 10 _____ 60 ... (33)
DOCARCH _____________ 14*_ 20*_ 09*_ 06*_ 04*___ 04 _____ 57 ... (38)
Rikand ________________12*_ 12*_ 10*_ 07*_ 09*___ 05 _____ 55 ... (35)

Jpmarn ____ (-2) _______ 19*_ 02*_ 03*_ 14*_ 09*___ 06 _ 53-2 = 51 .. (35)
Rameire _______________02*_ 19*_ 15*_ 02*_ 02*___ 10 _____ 50 ... (27)

Con Sensus ____________ 12*_ 10*_ 08*_ 07*_ 06*___ 06 _____ 49 ... (25)
Norma L _______________09*_ 20*_ 04*_ 04*_ 03*___ 09 _____ 49 ... (38)

Kindred Spirit ___________08*_ 19*_ 04*_ 11*_ 05*___ 01 _____ 48 ... (34)

Sunflower3 _____________15*_ 05*_ 12*_ 02*_ 02*___ 06 _____ 42 ... (18)
200motels _____________ 03*_ 14*_ 01*_ 14*_ 01*___ 08 _____ 41 ... (29)
sryanbruen _____________16*_ 08*_ 03*_ 03*_ 05*___ 05 _____ 40 ... (22)
waterways _____________ 09*_ 11*_ 04*_ 04*_ 03*___ 09 _____ 40 ... (25)
john mac ______________ 10*_ 04*_ 12*_ 05*_ 06*___ 02 _____ 39 ... (15)
Tae laidir ______________ 05*_ 02*_ 08*_ 09*_ 07*___ 07 _____ 38 ... (20)
mickger844posts ________ 19*_ 05*_ 01*_ 02*_ 03*___ 06 _____ 36 ... (21)
Lumi __________________08*_ 03*_ 13*_ 04*_ 02*___ 03 _____ 33 ... (21)
Dasa29 ________________12*_ 01*_ 03*_ 07*_ 02*___ 02 _____ 27 ... (16)
Bsal ___________________07*_ 01*_ 02*_ 05*_ 03*___ 05 _____ 23 ... (14)
__________________________________________________________

* minimum progression applied to all scores.

So there you have it, and it's on to the annual update ... congrats to Dacogawa for the big advance in scoring, and to Pauldry and MrSkinner for making something out of this difficult month.

dacogawa

Well Done M.T. you hit that month on the nose!

M.T. Cranium

Updated Annual scoring Jan to Nov 2016


best 9 of 11 ___________________________________________________________ all months

rank/score_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)


01 637 _ Con Sensus ___ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 _ 77 _ 49 __ 743 (1)

01 628 sunflower3 _____ 72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 _ 71 _ 42 __ 713 (3)
t2 623 MrSkinner_______ 83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 _ 65 _ 65 __ 739 (1)
t2 623 Lumi ___________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 _ 76 _ 33 __ 702 (5)
04 621 Dacogawa ______52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 _ 74 _ 87 __ 718 (2)
05 613 waterways______ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 _ 57 _ 40 __ 703 (4)
06 608 sryanbruen _____ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 _ 72 _ 40 __ 675 (9t)
07 605 mickger844posts_ 78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ 68 _ 36 __ 641 (17)
08 595 Rameire ________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 _ 80 _ 50 __ 700 (6)
t9 591 Tae laidir _______ 86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 _ 69 _ 38 __ 675 (9t)
t9 591 M.T. Cranium ____46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 _ 63 _ 88 __ 682 (8)

11 588 DOCARCH ______ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 _ 71 _ 57 __ 687 (7)
12 586 Joe Public ______ 28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 _ 70 _ 60 __ 663 (11t)
13 575 JD_____________69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 _ 62 _ 61 __ 652 (14t)
14 572 Pauldry_________53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 _ 60 _ 66 __ 662 (13)
15 570 Rikand _________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 _ 71 _ 55 __ 663 (11t)
16 568 Jpmarn ________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 _ 58 _ 51 __ 652 (14t)

16 568 Norma L _______ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 _ 64 _ 49 __ 663 (11t)

17 566 Dasa29 ________ 66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 _ 78 _ 27 __ 642 (16)
18 564 Bsal ___________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 _ 73 _ 23 __ 632 (18)
19 555 John mac _______72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 _ 83 _ 38 __ 629 (19)
20 549 200motels ______46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 _ 37 _ 41 __ 598 (20)
21 546 kindredspirit ____--- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 _ 66 _ 48 __ 581 (21)

22 ___ lostinashford ___ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 389
23 ___ Schadenfreudia _ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 260
25 ___ Carnacalla _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 _ --- _ 52 _ --- _ 61 __ 218
25 ___ omicron _______ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 191
26 ___ Timmyboy _____ --- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 53
27 ___ Elmer Blooker __ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 51
______________________________________________________________

Four seasons -- autumn totals and points

Dacogawa __________ 222 _____ 10 pts
M.T. Cranium _______ 208 ______ 7
Joe Public __________ 202 ______ 6
Pauldry ____________ 194 ______ 5
Rameire ____________193 ______ 4

Con Sensus _________ 191 ______ 3

JPmarn ____________ 190 _______ 3
MrSkinner __________ 188 _______ 2
JD ________________ 183 _______ 1
John mac ___________181 _______ 1
sunflower3 __________175 _______ 1
sryanbruen _________ 174
DOCARCH __________ 174
Rikand _____________167
Dasa29 ____________ 165
Kindred Spirit _______ 163
Tae laidir ___________162

Norma L ___________ 159

waterways __________157
Bsal _______________157
Lumi ______________ 155
200motels __________146
mickger844posts ____ 143

____________________________________________________

The four seasons total scoring will be posted soon in a separate post.

So, the annual scoring race has really tightened up with numerous moves being made up the table, most prolific being Dacogawa who is now a definite contender for both divisions. The Boards award portion is particularly close at this point, and looking at the December forecasts, the leaders have positioned themselves far enough apart in their forecasts that in theory anyone down to about 12th place could move up to the top. The total score division is a little less crowded, and MrSkinner has a lead of 21 on Dacogawa and 26 on Sunflower3 who is currently the leader in the Boards 10 of 12 portion.

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons Award -- final report for 2015-16 seasonal contest

With the autumn scoring shown above, these are the results of the four seasons which began with winter 2015-16 ...



FORECASTER ________ winter __ spring _ summer _ autumn _ TOTAL (rank)

Dacogawa _____________ -- ______6 ______--_____10 ______16
mickger844posts _________ 4 ____ 10 _____ -- ____ -- ______ 14
MrSkinner ______________ 5 _____--______ 6 _____ 2 _______13
waterways ______________7 _____ 1 ______4 _____ -- ______ 12
M.T. Cranium ___________ -- _____ 5 _____ --______ 7 ______ 12


Con Sensus _____________2 ______ 6 _____ 1 _____ 3 ______ 12

Sryanbruen _____________ -- ____-- ______10 _____ -- ______10
Rikand ________________ 10_____ -- ______ -- _____ -- _____ 10
lostinashford ____________ 3 _____ 7 ______ -- _____ -- _____ 10
Sunflower3 _____________ 1 _____--______ 7 _____ 1 _______ 9
Lumi __________________ 2 _____ 5 ______ 2 _____ -- _______9
Tae laidir _______________6 _____ -- ______ 1 _____ -- _______7
Joe Public ______________ -- _____ 1 _____ -- ______ 6 _______7
Rameire _______________-- ______ 1 ______ 1 _____ 4 _______6
Kindred spirit ___________ -- _____ -- ______ 5 _____ -- ______ 5
Pauldry _______________ -- _____ -- ______ -- _____ 5 ______ 5
DOCARCH ______________--______ 2 ______ 3 _____ -- ______ 5
200motels _____________ -- ______3 ______ --_____ -- ______ 3
Jpmarn ________________-- ______ --______ -- _____ 3 ______3
John mac ______________ 1 ______ -- ______-- _____ 1 ______ 2
JD____________________ 1 ______ -- ______ -- _____ 1 ______2
Dasa29 ________________--______ --______ 1 _____ -- ______1
Schadenfreudia _________ 1 ______ -- _____ -- _____ -- ______ 1

Norma L _______________-- ______ --______ 1 _____ -- ______ 1

Bsal __________________ -- ______ -- ______-- _____ -- ______0

___________________________________________________

The late surge by Dacogawa resulted in a Four Seasons award, previous contenders failed to add to their totals ... mickger844posts finished second and MrSkinner moved into third.

Well done Dacogawa and now on to the 2016 finish ...

dacogawa

Thanks M.T.

I'm sure I'll drop right back in this months table though...