Will property prices ever return to their peak?

Hollister11

Like a lot of other people, my parents bought a house at the peak in 2006, and it's worth about 30% less now. They bought a 3 bed semi in Dublin for 650k and its not worth around 450k.

Will the market return as height as that, or have the central bank rules put a stop to all that.

HandsomeDan

Give it about 10 or 15 years, provided brexit doesnt destroy us.

riclad

It might happen in the next 20 years ,depends on does brexit hurt the irish economy, will people start shopping up the north ,if euro is worth more than sterling.
will the uk reduce imports from ireland .
I know someone bought 2bed apartment in athlone,in 2006, cost 150k, now its worth 75k.
The central bank rules mean that people can,t borrow 10 times their income, and it means that house prices have got some basic connection with the real world .

Zenify

Hollister11 wrote: »

Like a lot of other people, my parents bought a house at the peak in 2006, and it's worth about 30% less now. They bought a 3 bed semi in Dublin for 650k and its not worth around 450k.

Will the market return as height as that, or have the central bank rules put a stop to all that.

i like to look at it this way...

with the central bank rules in order to sell that property the buyer would need 130k deposit and a combined income of just under 150k. Do you think someone with that income would be interested in that property?

There aren't that many buyers with that sort of money.

beechwood55

Are they living in the house or did they buy it as an investment?

groovyg

Do your parents want to sell it? Is it their principle residence or an investment?

Hollister11

Zenify wrote: »

i like to look at it this way...

with the central bank rules in order to sell that property the buyer would need 130k deposit and a combined income of just under 150k. Do you think someone with that income would be interested in that property?

There aren't that many buyers with that sort of money.

If I was earning that money. I wouldn't pay it for the house. It's a 1400 sq ft, 3 bed, in a Dublin suburb. Nice but nothing out of the ordinary.

Hollister11

groovyg wrote: »

Do your parents want to sell it? Is it their principle residence or an investment?

It's the family home. There not actively trying to sell, but if the prices go to 550/600 they would put it on the market.

ted1

Hollister11 wrote: »

Like a lot of other people, my parents bought a house at the peak in 2006, and it's worth about 30% less now. They bought a 3 bed semi in Dublin for 650k and its not worth around 450k.

Will the market return as height as that, or have the central bank rules put a stop to all that.

200k in 10 years.
Av Cost of renting a property worth 650k 1800*12*10=216,000
They haven't done to bad. Tracker mortgage ?

pillphil

HandsomeDan wrote: »

Give it about 10 or 15 years, provided brexit doesnt destroy us.

If you don't ignore inflation, that's pretty much the same value.

Senecio

Hollister11 wrote: »

It's the family home. There not actively trying to sell, but if the prices go to 550/600 they would put it on the market.

Why would they sell at that point? They need to live somewhere and would need to buy in the same inflated market.

Hollister11

Senecio wrote: »

Why would they sell at that point? They need to live somewhere and would need to buy in the same inflated market.

They have other properties they would move into

Ursus Horribilis

That's where any sympathy I might have had for them dissipates.

Hollister11

Ursus Horribilis wrote: »

That's where any sympathy I might have had for them dissipates.

This is why I hate being irish sometimes. Once you have assists, people seem to hate you.

BTW I never said we were struggling. I didn't ask for sympathy, I was need to know if prices will reach their peak.

Dearg81

Hollister11 wrote: »

This is why I hate being irish sometimes. Once you have assists, people seem to hate you.

BTW I never said we were struggling. I didn't ask for sympathy, I was need to know if prices will reach their peak.

Prices will go back up again eventually but your guess is as good as mine as to when that will happen.

I dont think people hate other people with assets as you put it. They just dislike the personal greed in wanting house prices to be over inflated just for personal gain which ignores the fact that it would be bad for other people who are already struggling to buy at current prices.

air

Nobody is begrudging them but it obviously won't have any impact on your parents whether or not prices do return to their peak or not.
They're simply suffering from loss aversion and need to get over it to be honest.

miezekatze

I think they'd only go back up to that level if there was signifcant inflation. People just don't earn enough money to be able to buy houses at those prices. They didn't 10-15 years ago either, but hopefully people will never be allowed to take on crazy levels of debt like that again.

Water John

housing is mainly about where people can live. It's primarily social. However, it became our biggest industry and was unsustainable.
It totally queered the social side of the equation. No desire to go back there.
We are now suffering the through of the peak.
If it isn't their primary residence, they can make up their 'loss' by renting at the exorbitant rents that are out there.

air

Salaries have completely flat lined like never before. Plenty of graduates today are earning less than the same graduates almost 15 years ago. This is unprecedented in this country. Given that house prices are primarily decided by the availability of credit, and that the amount of that credit is now tied inextricably to those same salaries, it's hard to see much scope for further growth.

Our previous house price growth was driven by leveraging of the normalisation of our salaries with those of our international competitors. Now that our salaries match or exceed most other economies there isn't the same scope for salary and thus house price increases that there one was.

riclad

Prices were pushed up by crazy reckless bank lending, you work in dunnes store,
Sure we,ll lend you 10 times your income to buy a house in longford for 250k.
inflation is low, interest rates are low.Many jobs are being taken over by automation , robots ,computers , i see no chance of a big rise in wages .
So prices may never go back to the peaks of the celtic tiger boom.
it would take a genius to predict the stock market in 5-10 years time.
And the housing market is the same .Theres too many unpredicatable variables ,oil prices ,interest rates ,eu policy on corporate tax rates ,
wars in the middle east, isis, brexit, the euro vs sterling rate .
My opinion is prices in dublin may rise slightly every year due to lack of supply .
but don,t take anything for granted .And don.t presume i that prices will go back to values in 2006 in the boom times .The eu and the central bank are watching lending rates closely
to prevent another boom bust .
We may have a crisis when all the people who are now in their 50,s retire in 10-20
years time and they,ll depend on state pensions and medical services to live
We still have a large debt to pay off due to the cost of the crash in 2007.

appfry

Read the threads from 4 or 5 years ago where people were adamant that rents would never go to peak again. It just could never happen. It would not be allowed to happen. Impossible.

Nothing is impossible, but you cant predict where your parents property will be priced in 10 years time.
Maybe it will be worth twice what it is no, maybe half.

Dont worry about it. If its ok now chances are it will be ok as time goes on.
Just pay the mortgage off and be done with it.

Ray Palmer

riclad wrote: »

We may have a crisis when all the people who are now in their 50,s retire in 10-20
years time and they,ll depend on state pensions and medical services to live
We still have a large debt to pay off due to the cost of the crash in 2007.

Or they'll rent out their houses to the working generation that can't afford to buy and have a good pension income. As economies grow home ownership in prime locations often drops dramatically. Investors can afford the property and it makes economical sense due to rental income but not affordable for private ownership.
It is already in place in Dublin for decades and people accept it even though they don't see it. All the old Georgian properties were once single households even though they did have servants and others living in them.
Houses in the suburbs are split and being split with many more to come in time. Well serviced areas are massively underpopulated in Dublin filled with many retirees. They are dying off and the houses are not getting new families buying them. When I first bought 15 years ago, on my road there were 3 houses already split. Now there are 12. Might be slow but it is happening. The more it happens then more will look at as an option.
Very easy to convert a 3 bed house into two 2 bed accommodation for relatively small amounts of money. Rental income increases by at least a quarter. Many people get a pension payout at retirement that can mean they can afford the initial costs based on the return.
Considering this prices could reach the peak in less than 5 years as there simply isn't enough built with continuing pressure on existing stock. It isn't all about private purchase.

hytrogen

Ray Palmer wrote:

.. Well serviced areas are massively underpopulated in Dublin filled with many retirees. They are dying off and the houses are not getting new families buying them.. .

Believe it or not they certainly are being filled with families.
Over the past 5 years I've seen elderly owners passing away or moving on, even families splitting up in my area. Out of 5 houses, 1 became a rental for a period and has recently been sold to a young family. The rest were bought by young families, 1 of which was levelled and rebuilt completely (looks fab but lost some of the old character though the layout is now far superior)
I'm quite glad to say the "vulture funds" haven't come knocking to my area but the estate agents certainly have, to a point of irritation now.

Villa05

Ray Palmer wrote:

Or they'll rent out their houses to the working generation that can't afford to buy and have a good pension income. As economies grow home ownership in prime locations often drops dramatically. Investors can afford the property and it makes economical sense due to rental income but not affordable for private ownership.

Intresting point, the continuation of this trend, were it to take hold would be that each generation would be worse off than the previous generation. Having children would be an unaffordable luxury for many

Costs relating to older population would sky rocket. Debt also leading to bankruptcy of the nation

riclad

Rents have gone up in dublin since the 90s, bedsits were banned ,rents rise due to demand and lack of supply ,house prices are based on demand ,
lack of supply ,but are also based on lending rules ,
eg 3.5 times your income limit, and you need a large deposit 10-20 per cent .
irish governments do,nt control rent , they leave it to the market.
so if you bought house for 500k and its now worth 300k,
It would be foolish to presume in 10 years it,ll be worth 500k .
The era of large council estates being built is over , there,ll be maybe 1000 social housing units built every year .

Ray Palmer

Villa05 wrote: »

Intresting point, the continuation of this trend, were it to take hold would be that each generation would be worse off than the previous generation. Having children would be an unaffordable luxury for many

Costs relating to older population would sky rocket. Debt also leading to bankruptcy of the nation

Look at Japan, things evolve and it takes a long time to collapse. Things don't always correct themselves like people think.

Where I live the people dying are not being replaced with new families owning, if it is a family they are renting. Maybe one went to a young couple but they appear to have high paying jobs with luxury cars. They could be in massive debt for all I know.

Worse off then the previous generation is very relative. My mam's neighbours lived in a 3 bed corpo house and had 8 kids. I grew up in a 3 bed with 2 other siblings. Kids now are expected to have a room each. The houses have central heating now and two toilets if more than one floor. Better off standard of living for the majority by far now

newacc2015

miezekatze wrote: »

I think they'd only go back up to that level if there was signifcant inflation. People just don't earn enough money to be able to buy houses at those prices. They didn't 10-15 years ago either, but hopefully people will never be allowed to take on crazy levels of debt like that again.

I disagree re significant inflation is needed. Look at Denmark and Sweden who basically have no inflation, but their central banks are defending their currency against speculation ie people are betting against the peg failing like what happened in Switzerland. So interest rates are super low and credit is easy.

I think if Ireland was like Belgium or Germany where you can get 20 year fixed mortgages for 2%, I think even with central bank restrictions etc you will see inflated property prices again.

Wages are flat lining in Sweden and Denmark, just like Ireland cheap and easy credit is hard to resist

Ray Palmer

riclad wrote: »

Rents have gone up in dublin since the 90s, bedsits were banned ,rents rise due to demand and lack of supply ,house prices are based on demand ,
lack of supply ,but are also based on lending rules ,
eg 3.5 times your income limit, and you need a large deposit 10-20 per cent .
irish governments do,nt control rent , they leave it to the market.
so if you bought house for 500k and its now worth 300k,
It would be foolish to presume in 10 years it,ll be worth 500k .
The era of large council estates being built is over , there,ll be maybe 1000 social housing units built every year .

Lending rules don't apply to investment money. When investors can buy property here and rent it tax free then value to them is more than a private buyer can borrow to. They can out price Irish investors too. What happens then is the private buyer is out of the market for certain properties. The same way Georgian houses were bought up by investment companies sand turned into business premises for the rental income that support pensions.

It easy to see a company are two being set-up to split houses to do this for investors.

Gael23

Yes they will rise from today's levels but I don't see a return to 2006/07 prices happening anytime soon, if ever.

riclad

IF joe bloggs goes to a bank and asks for a btl investment role the
lending rules are extremely strict ,i understand companys can buy propertys direct from nama and avoid paying tax on rental income ,
The government can close this loophole if they wish .or put an extra tax on foreign buyers but they have to comply with eu rules regarding
investors and freedom to travel and invest in the eu.
look at the nama ,northern ireland deal ,they sold off all their property in the north to
on to one company.

helimachoptor

myself and the wife bought a house in 2007 :eek:
It wasnt our most sensible life decision, however we've been very lucky and it's rented longterm to a council. The council i.e. taxpayer is going to pay the mortgage. I'm not concerned about prices for that house for 20 years tbh.



We bought our now family home last year, we spent a chunk of money renovating, on the day we moved in we had an EA drop by to tell us we could make 100-150K is we sold it.. which would have put it at peak prices

The house is in a nice part of SCD, big gardens, big houses, good amenities. It takes a chunk of change to buy one and they all need renovation (all executor sales) I havent seen one divided up tbh