Cheltenham 2017 Antepost

posturingpat

akelly02 wrote: »

That last bit is incorrect he bolted up in a neptune trial beating shantou village by approximately 7 lengths at cheltenham

You are of course correct, my bad, that's what i get for scanning through the form on a Monday morning after a rough weekend :pac:

Still think he won't run in the Champion and i'd be all against him if he does nice and all an animal he is i just don't think he's top drawer over 2, could end up like Oscar whisky, wanting a 2 and a half mile hurdle at the Festival.

akelly02

posturingpat wrote: »

You are of course correct, my bad, that's what i get for scanning through the form on a Monday morning after a rough weekend :pac:

Still think he won't run in the Champion and i'd be all against him if he does nice and all an animal he is i just don't think he's top drawer over 2, could end up like Oscar whisky, wanting a 2 and a half mile hurdle at the Festival.

I agree I think it will be disappointing if he wins a champion. If we thought last years lineup was bad god help us for this year

Gringo180

posturingpat wrote: »

I'd give Petit Mouchoir his chance for sure but wouldn't be backing him at 4/1, can see him finding one too good.

With regards the Mc Manus runners i can see Yanworth being rerouted to the World hurdle or maybe even kept for Aintree which could suit him perfectly. Jezki could then go for the Champion. Brain power's an intended runner against Yanworth in the contenders hurdle and after he beats Yanworth they'll pull the plug on Yanworth for the Champion.

Interestingly Yanworth has only ever been beaten 3 times, 2 of which have been Cheltenham, his only 2 visits to the course.

Petit Mouchar reminds me of Identity Thief last year, under priced for who he has beaten. Although in fairness PM he has achieved more on the track than IT did before Cheltenham but form still doesnt look strong enough for me.

Yanworth won well over 2 miles at Kempton which is a sharp track, the extra few hundred yards and undulations at Cheltenham will be right up his street.

posturingpat

I'm not a big times man but Petit Mouchoirs time yesterday was very impressive on the face of it and Footpad was flattered to get as close having settled at the rear and picked up the pieces,if Nichols Canyon is the horse he was last year(questionable) then PM's form is every bit as good as Yanworths for me.
Yanworth looked in trouble for most of the xmas hurdle and his stamina won out. I can see the argument for Cheltenham suiting him with more emphasis on staying power but i just think he's not quick enough, i fully expect Brain power to beat him at the weekend if they both run, he's improving at a rate of knots and is a ball of speed.

kfallon

posturingpat wrote: »

if Nichols Canyon is the horse he was last year(questionable) then PM's form is every bit as good as Yanworths for me.

NC, for me, does not like Leopardstown, never runs his best there and even when he did win he was all out and had a very tough race to beat Identity Thief!

Kauto

Gamebred wrote: »

Yanworth runs no doubt about his participation, Faugheen has zero chance if he rocks up first run of the season hes 100/1 to run never mind win wont be seen again imo, expect min to be out of the arkle too.

100/1 go back to bed ya clown. If he rocks up he will win. He could have ran at the weekend. He did a unreal piece of work by all accounts during the week to suggest he is better than ever. I will take 5/1 if your offering??

Gamebred

Kauto wrote: »

100/1 go back to bed ya clown. If he rocks up he will win. He could have ran at the weekend. He did a unreal piece of work by all accounts during the week to suggest he is better than ever. I will take 5/1 if your offering??

Horse wont be seen again, there is no viable way of facilitating a bet on here so lets be real, I will have a charity bet with you, hes evens so if he wins Ill donate 200 to a charity of your choice, and vice versa.

Gringo180

kfallon wrote: »

NC, for me, does not like Leopardstown, never runs his best there and even when he did win he was all out and had a very tough race to beat Identity Thief!

Hes a nice each way bet for the CH. Way over priced @20/1.

Kauto

Gamebred wrote: »

Horse wont be seen again, there is no viable way of facilitating a bet on here so lets be real, I will have a charity bet with you, hes evens so if he wins Ill donate 200 to a charity of your choice, and vice versa.

The horse will run in March and have no doubt he will win. The problem he had wasnt even a pulled muscle. It was over exagerated by Mullins and the media took off with it. He could have ran on Sunday.

Kauto

Gringo180 wrote: »

Hes a nice each way bet for the CH. Way over priced @20/1.

Looks to have had one too many hard races!

Kauto

Identity Thief will run in the JLT. Wont run in the Arkle im told. They dont think he has the boot for it which seems strange as he was competitive in the CH last year.

dickenson famous5

Slightly better ground than last eight Irish champion hurdles but by far faster time if runs like yesterday can't be beat

Kauto

dickenson famous5 wrote: »

Slightly better ground than last eight Irish champion hurdles but by far faster time if runs like yesterday can't be beat

Of course it can be beat. Footpad was 1L behind him. I dont care how fast they went, thats not CH winning form.
De Bromhead horses rarely improve as the season goes on.(Sizing Europe excepted) so its more likely this fella will regress and not improve in the CH.

Shemale

williemullins wrote: »

Annie will retire, announcement soon

You cant be trusted Willie, Faugheen was going to run and win on Saturday

dave81

Have to say that I do think petit is a contender. I did before the race and still do. It will take a good one to best him, but saying that, i think he will find only one too good and that's Faugheen, in a tight battle. Footpad is a decent horse, its the first time he got a race to suit him. He could be a serious contender for Aintree hurdle. Maybe a serious canditidate for stayers in due course. I think that the race will take serious twists and turns - withdrawals and entries. I don't know why but I don't expect faugheen to turn up, I hope that he does. Could Jezki or yorkhill or even Uds be rerouted? I have a sneak that Jezki will take a punt if Faugheen is out.

uxiant

Kauto wrote: »

Of course it can be beat. Footpad was 1L behind him. I dont care how fast they went, thats not CH winning form.
De Bromhead horses rarely improve as the season goes on.(Sizing Europe excepted) so its more likely this fella will regress and not improve in the CH.

It's usually his novices that don't improve. He seems to save them for chasing but whatever he does to his 2nd season hurdlers they seem to improve. Eg. Identity Thief and Sizing Europe as you mentioned.

Melon (SNH), Unowhatimeanharry (SH), Defi Du Seuil (TH) Thistlecrack (GC) all to place (3 places) @ 16-1 with Skybet

I think thats good value.

its nrnb too

Shanotheslayer

TheTorment wrote: »

Melon (SNH), Unowhatimeanharry (SH), Defi Du Seuil (TH) Thistlecrack (GC) all to place (3 places) @ 16-1 with Skybet

I think thats good value.

its nrnb too

Is that a RAB? Or did you just do individually?

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Is that a RAB? Or did you just do individually?

Its part of the specials in Festival Fever

https://www.skybet.com/horse-racing/specials/festival-fever#special-festival-fever---6-weeks-to-go

dickenson famous5

How do you define champion hurdle form kauto ,give me a clue does it not include fast run races over two miles in graded class fastest time in last 8 years in Irish champion hurdle ,

Copper_pipe

Think Jezki could be one for the Champion? The Red Mills will tell all...

14/1 on WH for the Champion.

Money refunded if your horse misses The Festival. Money Back as a Free Bet up to £25 if your horse runs in a different Festival race. Singles only

posturingpat

posturingpat wrote: »

With regards the Mc Manus runners i can see Yanworth being rerouted to the World hurdle or maybe even kept for Aintree which could suit him perfectly. Jezki could then go for the Champion. Brain power's an intended runner against Yanworth in the contenders hurdle and after he beats Yanworth they'll pull the plug on Yanworth for the Champion.

Interestingly Yanworth has only ever been beaten 3 times, 2 of which have been Cheltenham, his only 2 visits to the course.

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Think Jezki could be one for the Champion? The Red Mills will tell all...

14/1 on WH for the Champion.

Money refunded if your horse misses The Festival. Money Back as a Free Bet up to £25 if your horse runs in a different Festival race. Singles only

This is the angle that I am currently thinking. As above with William Hill or Bet now at nrnb 11-1 with Racebets.

Kauto

dickenson famous5 wrote: »

How do you define champion hurdle form kauto ,give me a clue does it not include fast run races over two miles in graded class fastest time in last 8 years in Irish champion hurdle ,

Fastest ground it has been in that time. Footpad was within a few Lengths and he hasn't a hope in a champion. Look your entitled to your opinion, but if Faugheen runs I think he wins.

Backstreet Moyes

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Think Jezki could be one for the Champion? The Red Mills will tell all...

14/1 on WH for the Champion.

Money refunded if your horse misses The Festival. Money Back as a Free Bet up to £25 if your horse runs in a different Festival race. Singles only

Is this special on every race.

jimjamcos

I'd much rather back Jezki than PM too.

Previous winner and will likely only run if Faugheen doesn't.

He's got less question marks than PM (re course & ground) at three times the price.

Copper_pipe

Nuts102 wrote: »

Is this special on every race.

tis

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-ie/betting/y/9/ap/Horse+Racing.html

Shemale

Petit Mouchoir was my idea of the winner with the doubts over Faugheen, before the weekend.

Wouldnt be overly concerned about the field after the weekend.

Copper_pipe

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Think Jezki could be one for the Champion? The Red Mills will tell all...

14/1 on WH for the Champion.

Money refunded if your horse misses The Festival. Money Back as a Free Bet up to £25 if your horse runs in a different Festival race. Singles only

Had a bet on this. Thanks Copper

Gamebred

Faugheen was bet having his first run last season looked awkward under pressure, hes no coming off 2 injuries with no run in more than a year, Is anyone seriously backing it to win a champion hurdle in march? taking some leap of faith (and as the old schoolers on here know Im the founding member of the fanclub on here)

Copper_pipe

Article on RTE
https://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2017/0130/848775-faugheen-a-lot-better-after-weekend-withdrawal/

Asked on Monday afternoon if there had been an improvement, Mullins said: "Yes. He is a lot better today."

WickIow Brave

Kauto wrote: »

if Faugheen runs I think he wins.

This. Faugheen either runs and wins or he doesn't run at all. The question mark around Faugheen is whether he lines up. If he does line up then there are no more question marks for me because WPM simply will not run him if he isn't near 100% certain he'll win. Another trainer might take the chance if they weren't sure. WPM acts the bollocks but the man is an absolute judge and he knows exactly what he has.

Whiplash85

WickIow Brave wrote: »

This. Faugheen either runs and wins or he doesn't run at all. The question mark around Faugheen is whether he lines up. If he does line up then there are no more question marks for me because WPM simply will not run him if he isn't near 100% certain he'll win. Another trainer might take the chance if they weren't sure. WPM acts the bollocks but the man is an absolute judge and he knows exactly what he has.

Probably would have used Nichols Canyon as the yardstick.

Gamebred

Different story doing it with Quevega every year against muck horses in the mares, might be a weak champion but it wont be won if hes not drilled for it, horrible price imo.

Backstreet Moyes

Jezki 14/1 NRNB looks a great bet for the Champion Hurdle.

Wexford1996

You're claiming his price is evens which it isn't!! Some 5/2 available and 7/4 non runner no bet.

Gamebred

Seen 5/4 earlier when I had a glance on 365, wouldnt back him at anything near 7/4 best price myself anyways.

Wexford1996

Best price is 5/2 and the 7/4 is non runner no bet! If he turns up couldn't see him being anywhere close to 7/4.

Gamebred

He will be readily available at 7/4 probably bigger, Annie power was backable at 2/1 in a worse champion with a run behind her, hes off more than a year with injury massive gamble backing him.

WickIow Brave

Gamebred wrote: »

Different story doing it with Quevega every year against muck horses in the mares, might be a weak champion but it wont be won if hes not drilled for it, horrible price imo.

If Faugheen actually does run you can be sure he will be spot on for it. If he isn't, Mullins won't run him. It's as simple as that imho. Like the above poster said, he has the likes of Nichols Canyon to use as a yardstick. They knew Annie Power would win the Champion Hurdle last year off a nothing prep race and they knew VVM would win the Punchestown Champion Hurdle. They are right more often than not.

Gamebred

WickIow Brave wrote: »

If Faugheen actually does run you can be sure he will be spot on for it. If he isn't, Mullins won't run him. It's as simple as that imho. Like the above poster said, he has the likes of Nichols Canyon to use as a yardstick. They knew Annie Power would win the Champion Hurdle last year off a nothing prep race and they knew VVM would win the Punchestown Champion Hurdle. They are right more often than not.

Dont disagree but there was no year lay off, multiple injuries and reports of very poor work on the gallops that surrounds Faugheen.

WickIow Brave

Gamebred wrote: »

Dont disagree but there was no year lay off, multiple injuries and reports of very poor work on the gallops that surrounds Faugheen.

Yeah there are definitely doubts about his participation. I'd say he's probably shades of odds against to even run. I'm just saying if he does actually run then I can't see him not winning. Mullins will have to be 100% certain he'll win to run him. The possibility of Faugheen being tailed off or getting bet by Brain Power or some yoke won't be entertained. They have 7 weeks, let's hope they can get him there.

posturingpat

I'm looking for a bit of info on a horse from Jessies yard folks,i used to get the odd whisper from there but my source is now the other side of the world with a beautiful woman so horse racing's not on his mind so much. Anybody here have anyone there that they could ask about a certain horse if i PM'd the name. Looks unbelievably well handicapped if he's not injured an it'd be great to know if there's any plan for the festival.

Gamebred

Min out to 9/2 antepost, will be ruled out soon enough I reckon.

BumperD

Gamebred wrote: »

Seen 5/4 earlier when I had a glance on 365, wouldnt back him at anything near 7/4 best price myself anyways.

Cooney from b365 was on at the weekend. There is no one betting on these markets. No one. And I'm happy to hear that. There is zero value in those markets. Zero.

krustydoyle

posturingpat wrote: »

I'm looking for a bit of info on a horse from Jessies yard folks,i used to get the odd whisper from there but my source is now the other side of the world with a beautiful woman so horse racing's not on his mind so much. Anybody here have anyone there that they could ask about a certain horse if i PM'd the name. Looks unbelievably well handicapped if he's not injured an it'd be great to know if there's any plan for the festival.

I've a contact in the yard and ill do my best for you if you want Pat

BumperD

Gamebred wrote: »

Min out to 9/2 antepost, will be ruled out soon enough I reckon.

We're in the last 6 weeks where all the trials are done, work gets stepped up and a few fall away. Hope most make it but we know they won't unfortunately.

Mullins Amo for big races is weak, maybe shaneshill for WH, zip bar jak Gc, ch shaky as you pointed, Ryanair?

Custom Cut

Faugheen goes off evens or worse if he runs. It's Yanworth and Petit Mouchoir he has to beat FFS, 160 horses. Faugheen is rated 176, and has run well above the career bests of the rest of the field (bar maybe Jezki) on nearly every run he's had in open company. His one blip was on his reappearance last season when he was fat, you can guarantee if he gets to Cheltenham Mullins will have left nothing to chance and he can produce his best. No better trainer to get a horse fit. 7/4 NRNB with betfred is an absolute gift and I've had as much as I can on there, with the intention to either lock up a profit or a lay off my stake to secure a free bet on the day, depending on the price he is.

BumperD

If 7/4 is your idea of a gift I'd hate to be around your place for Christmas :pac:

Shanee.

You could back Faugheen yesterday at 4/1 on the exchanges...i personally think he will run and will win

Custom Cut

BumperD wrote: »

If 7/4 is your idea of a gift I'd hate to be around your place for Christmas :pac:

What price do you think he should be NRNB?