General Election (US) predictions?

ChikiChiki

mikeym wrote: »

Its a pity the 3rd party candidates dont even get a look in because of the biased coverage by the media.

I know one of them doesnt know were Aleppo is.

I would have loved to see Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee he would be a better president than Clinton.

The US political system is truly awful for a country that harps on about democracy. Realistically it's a two party country. None of the others will ever have a hope as long as the media and big businesses plough all support behind the two major parties.

This election cycle was the perfect opportunity for a party other than the Republicans or Democrats to make significant gains and they have utterly failed in this. Its very hard for them to make any gains since they are not allowed into even one of the debates unless they reach 15% in the polls, a rule which in itself is utterly ridiculous.

Elliott S

twinytwo wrote: »

Have a look into the workings of the Clinton foundation, its laughable at best.

Sure isnt Dennis O Brien squeaky clean as well......

The Clinton Foundation is a shining beacon compared to Trump University. As already asked, HOW can it be said that Clinton is as corrupt or more corrupt than Trump?

pickarooney

Donald Trump wrote: »

I'm going to win!
Booo yeah bitches!
Pussy grabbing galore!
:P

Mods, is this even a verified account?

A Little Pony

twinytwo wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Trump to win with the shy voter on polling day. Think America is sick of Clinton.

Dont get me wrong... i hate Clinton and everything she stands for.

But consider for a second, the global ramifications of Trump... being president of the US....

I mean really consider...:(

He isn't that bad. I think people go a bit OTT with Trump, he might be an arsehole but I think the difference between him and Hillary is marginal. It is basically a pick what you like contest.

RobertKK

Donald Trump wrote: »

I'm going to win!
Booo yeah bitches!
Pussy grabbing galore!
:P

That is also what Bill Clinton is saying...

A Little Pony

A Little Pony wrote: »

He isn't that bad. I think people go a bit OTT with Trump, he might be an arsehole but I think the difference between him and Hillary is marginal. It is basically a pick what you like contest.

Trump has no political experience. He is racist, homophonic, xenophobic. He has been caught on camera openly admitting to sexually assaulting women. 10 women have come out and said they've been sexually assaulted by him. He has imitated a disabled reporter. He has shown a short temper and an inability to string proper sentences together.

I'm curious; if that's not bad, what would constitute a 'bad' candidate?

RobertKK

Elliott S wrote: »

The Clinton Foundation is a shining beacon compared to Trump University. As already asked, HOW can it be said that Clinton is as corrupt or more corrupt than Trump?

So Haiti has an earthquake, the Clinton Foundation get some of their backers to donate to help Haiti, with Bill getting business from the Haiti donors in the form of around $500,000 in speaking fees.
Shining light, using devastation in Haiti for personal gain.

Elliott S

KeepTheFaith wrote: »

Trump has no political experience.

Yup, and based on the debates, he doesn't even have elementary knowledge of the American governmental and legal systems. That is really embarrassing.

Elliott S

RobertKK wrote: »

So Haiti has an earthquake, the Clinton Foundation get some of their backers to donate to help Haiti, with Bill getting business from the Haiti donors in the form of around $500,000 in speaking fees.
Shining light, using devastation in Haiti for personal gain.

Firstly, I said compared to the Trump Foundation. Please read more carefully.

You might want to be more clear here. The Clinton Foundation helped out in Haiti. What's this about Bill getting business from donors? Did he use the funds donated to the foundation for Haiti? Or were the speaking fees separate from the money donated to the foundation? If the speaking fees were separate, what does this have to do with the foundation? The donors are free to pay him speaking fees separate to what they donate to charity, no?

A Little Pony

KeepTheFaith wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

He isn't that bad. I think people go a bit OTT with Trump, he might be an arsehole but I think the difference between him and Hillary is marginal. It is basically a pick what you like contest.

Trump has no political experience. He is racist, homophonic, xenophobic. He has been caught on camera openly admitting to sexually assaulting women. 10 women have come out and said they've been sexually assaulted by him. He has imitated a disabled reporter. He has shown a short temper and an inability to string proper sentences together.

I'm curious; if that's not bad, what would constitute a 'bad' candidate?

Hillary Clinton. She has a horrific foreign policy record. She was against Gay marriage and then for it. Is she homophobic? Depends what agenda you follow. Just face up to it, the election choice sucks donkey cock.

jem

The sad thing is that I have a horrible feeling that this is going to be very close.
Was very strange that the FBI made its statement so close to the election when they havnt even looked at the emails. Smacks of interfering with the election.
Would wonder what the FBI boss is afraid of.

I was hoping that clinton would win by a huge amount not that I particularly like her but a huge margin would make it harder for trump to claim a FIX( he will do it anyway but it would have been harder)

I would worry that there is a substancial % of people who will vote trump but are too embarrassed to say it openly in polls etc.

I would also worry that a reasonable % will not vote for clinton worrying that she could be indited soon after being elected .

Add these two to the die in the wool republicans and the rednecks just could push trump up to clinton or even Yoda forbid past her.

Manic Moran

mikeym wrote: »

Its a pity the 3rd party candidates dont even get a look in because of the biased coverage by the media.

I know one of them doesnt know were Aleppo is.

I would have loved to see Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee he would be a better president than Clinton.

Meh. Shortly afterwards, Clinton placed Mosul on the border with Syria. Dublin is closer to Cardiff than Mosul is to Syria. Everyone has the occasional brain fart.
Honestly, I'm disappointed Johnson wasn't allowed on the debate stage. He was a popular and successful governor, and seems to have actually had a life outside of politics. Not many politicians have had the determination to climb Mt Everest, for example. His politics may not be for everyone, but poltiics hasn't been an issue in this election since Sanders was knocked out.

Manic Moran

mikeym wrote: »

Its a pity the 3rd party candidates dont even get a look in because of the biased coverage by the media.

I know one of them doesnt know were Aleppo is.

I would have loved to see Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee he would be a better president than Clinton.

Meh. Shortly afterwards, Clinton placed Mosul on the border with Syria. Dublin is closer to Cardiff than Mosul is to Syria. Everyone has the occasional brain fart.
Honestly, I'm disappointed Johnson wasn't allowed on the debate stage. He was a popular and successful governor, and seems to have actually had a life outside of politics. Not many politicians have had the determination to climb Mt Everest, for example. His politics may not be for everyone, but poltiics hasn't been an issue in this election since Sanders was knocked out.

Manic Moran

mikeym wrote: »

Its a pity the 3rd party candidates dont even get a look in because of the biased coverage by the media.

I know one of them doesnt know were Aleppo is.

I would have loved to see Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee he would be a better president than Clinton.

Meh. Shortly afterwards, Clinton placed Mosul on the border with Syria. Dublin is closer to Cardiff than Mosul is to Syria. Everyone has the occasional brain fart.
Honestly, I'm disappointed Johnson wasn't allowed on the debate stage. He was a popular and successful governor, and seems to have actually had a life outside of politics. Not many politicians have had the determination to climb Mt Everest, for example. His politics may not be for everyone, but poltiics hasn't been an issue in this election since Sanders was knocked out.

HellSquirrel

Autonomous Cowherd wrote: »

I think the liberal media vastly under-estimate the angry surge of the' Redneck Spring' (can I hereby stake some claim to that tag/label/epithet...you heard it here first)

No, they're not underestimating it. They're pretty worried about a presidential candidate with a predilection for whipping his followers into a frenzy telling them that the election will be stolen from them by brown people and dead people. Yeah, they're pretty worried about riots, shooting at polling stations and voter intimidation, as well they should be. And tbh, the rest of us should be as well, because when America sneezes...

Also, we really don't need this rubbish globally right now. USA, sort your **** out!

Donald Trump

RobertKK wrote: »

That is also what Bill Clinton is saying...

Sure meself and Bill have a secret pact to divide up the fine hotties regardless of who gets in power.

We had a difficult argument over my Ivanka as we were both mad for a bit of that. But Bill relented after he admitted he had already been there!

Capt'n Midnight

one I heard

The debate to watch was the vice president's one, because of the likelihood of Trump or Clinton getting assassinated in the first year for being so unpopular.

brickmauser

Professor Allan J Pitchman of American University who has predicted every Presidential election since 1984 believes Trump will win.

He bases his prediction on the pattern of every election since the 1860.

He uses 13 keys as the basis of his prediction.

mzungu

mikeym wrote: »

Its a pity the 3rd party candidates dont even get a look in because of the biased coverage by the media.

I know one of them doesnt know were Aleppo is.

I would have loved to see Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee he would be a better president than Clinton.

...and the other seems to be sympathetic to the anti-vaxxer cause.
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/24/13382998/jill-stein-hillary-clinton-vaccines

As for predictions, I think Clinton is unstoppable at this stage.

Trump will win in my opinion..

This is going to be an awful week for her with the FBI / O'Keefe promising some sort of video that makes her look racist / Wikileaks maybe dropping something.
Trump will have a bad week as well as I'm sure the Democrats have something saved for the run up but his supporters won't care and he's actually doing well in the polling.

But I think she'll have a worse week where people who aren't "supporters" will get turned off her for good and she'll lose votes. It's unbelievable that she's so bad, Trump actually has a chance.. Sanders would be a 80% or something win if he were in it. And any other Republican would do the same to Hillary.

Elliott S

Deleted User wrote: »

This is going to be an awful week for her with the FBI / O'Keefe promising some sort of video that makes her look racist / Wikileaks maybe dropping something.
Trump will have a bad week as well as I'm sure the Democrats have something saved for the run up but his supporters won't care and he's actually doing well in the polling.

So... they'll both have a bad week. Clinton is still ahead in the polls after the Comey business and early voting seems to be going her way. How does this translate to Trump winning?

Elliott S

Elliott S wrote: »

So... they'll both have a bad week. Clinton is still ahead in the polls after the Comey business and early voting seems to be going her way. How does this translate to Trump winning?

This is prediction thread. I just said I think she'll have a worse week.



Are we actually attacking people who predict he'll win as well as attacking his actual fans now?

Elliott S

Deleted User wrote: »

This is prediction thread. I just said I think she'll have a worse week.



Are we actually attacking people who predict he'll win as well as attacking his actual fans now?

Just trying to figure out your logic. Why so defensive? Are predictions not to be discussed? Don't be as brittle as the person you believe will win.

Edups

Please let's not allow this to decend into fighting gentlemen

Elliott S

Elliott S wrote: »

Just trying to figure out your logic. Why so defensive? Are predictions not to be discussed? Don't be as brittle as the person you believe will win.

If you want to discuss it, why did you ask me a question when I had given the answer in the next sentence..

"But I think she'll have a worse week where people who aren't "supporters" will get turned off her for good and she'll lose votes."

Ask me about that instead.

Elliott S

Deleted User wrote: »

If you want to discuss it, why did you ask me a question when I had given the answer in the next sentence..

"But I think she'll have a worse week where people who aren't "supporters" will get turned off her for good and she'll lose votes."

Ask me about that instead.

It's not up to you to decide what questions people ask you. I saw that sentence, it doesn't mean I think it satisfactorily explained your position.

8-10

I think Clinton will win with ~300 electoral college votes

Elliott S

Elliott S wrote: »

It's not up to you to decide what questions people ask you. I saw that sentence, it doesn't mean I think it satisfactorily explained your position.

It's a close race right now and I have no idea what will get released about Trump this week but I have a bit of an idea of what might happen to Hillary and I think it will be damaging.

Of course, Trump could have some awful thing come out but right now, knowing what I know, I think Hillary will lose support this week.

• 650,000 emails literally kept in a folder / file called "Life Insurance" and Huma off the campaign trail and back in NY with lawyers. If the 33k deleted emails are in there and they're not about yoga, she could be impeached as president. Voters could learn that this week.
  
• O'Keefe saying he has a video "involving" Clinton and disparaging remarks about black people.. It may be huge if it's her or it may be nothing if it's an aide or something but he says he has her on video in one of the videos. And he seems to deliver.
  
• Standard Wikileaks stuff.. They continue to release the Podesta emails but who knows what else they could have.
• Lots of talk of the Lolita Express.. I don't think anything will come of it but Bill was on that plane and Epstein's island 26 times or something and this could be the week for something to come out.

Do I know if this stuff will happen? No. But there's quite a lot room for scandal this week.
Any other election cycle, you could call me a conspiracy theorist.. But not this one. (Actually, you can for "Lolita Express" one.)

tomwaterford

jem wrote: »

The sad thing is that I have a horrible feeling that this is going to be very close.
Was very strange that the FBI made its statement so close to the election when they havnt even looked at the emails. Smacks of interfering with the election.
Would wonder what the FBI boss is afraid of.

I was hoping that clinton would win by a huge amount not that I particularly like her but a huge margin would make it harder for trump to claim a FIX( he will do it anyway but it would have been harder)

I would worry that there is a substancial % of people who will vote trump but are too embarrassed to say it openly in polls etc.

I would also worry that a reasonable % will not vote for clinton worrying that she could be indited soon after being elected .

Add these two to the die in the wool republicans and the rednecks just could push trump up to clinton or even Yoda forbid past her.

So very good analysis there:)


You could see why people are supporting trump....most of the scandals surrounding him are events somwhat hyped out of all proportions!
(Not condoning it btw)


But what is alleged of Clinton while no charges brought....suggests someone who operates on a very thin line ethically and while trump is mildly deranged he is somewhat correct FWIC that the media don't investigate as throughly as they should these stories

While pussy grabbing is wrong and 100% so....theres no indication that anyone died due to his actions



I just about hope Clinton wins.....but wouldn't demonise those who can't bring themselves to vote for her and trump sneaks in....

Neither of these two will be ever elected president again and will hopefully retire in 2020

Autonomous Cowherd

Yeah, I thought this was a prediction thread, not a 'savage the people who don't agree with your prediction' thread. Two choices of winners, Trump or Clinton, both woeful in their own special ways. Both are, in all reason, indefensible as candidates. Let some say Trump, and some say Clinton. No one knows for sure right now who will win.

Galwayguy35

Last week Trump was all but written off, I still don't think he will get enough of the female or black vote to do it but it looks like it will be closer than people thought a few days ago.

Clinton is damaged as well even if she is elected after the FBI decided to reopen the email investigation, how on earth did the most powerful country end up with these two idiots as the final two candidates.

Looks we aren't so bad after all having nice guy Enda as the boss.

suicide_circus

Two shocking candidates, truly a choice of evils. Presumably Trump's pantomime antics will have won it for Clinton. Just about any other candidate could have beaten her hands down.

Galwayguy35

When the candidate get in are they guaranteed to last the 4 years or could an early election be called like happens here?

dudara

If the president has to step down for any reason, the VP will be sworn in. As happened after JFK was assassinated.

Dohnjoe

PirateShampoo wrote: »

They are both complete idiots and both would be total liabilitys running the country.

Generation Twitter is ****ed up.

This is wrong on so many levels

Branson had a meeting with both candidates, one talked about the economy, jobs, education, foreign policy passionately

The other said how they would spend the time destroying 5 individuals who didn't lend them a money at a specific point in their career

Hillary certainly wouldn't be my choice, but Trump is an absolute populist, a used car salesman of the highest order, has no credentials for office

He has no qualms about whipping up millions of people with irresponsible (and even dangerous) conspiracies, according to politifact he has lied more than any other recent presidential candidate, has caused unprecedented division in his own party and, as far as I know, is the only candidate who has challenged the democratic system in 200+ years

The reason he is popular is because of his un-politically correct, anti-establishment rhetoric.. which is all a sham anyway, he's devoted his entire life to becoming one of the elites in life - now he's pretending to support the working man

The real worry isn't Trump, but it's the huge support his racist, bigoted and ignorant messages garner. Not to mention the vast swamp of crazy and hatred he has tapped into

He'd make a fantastic used car salesman, but president, not so much

NIMAN

Clinton will win easily.

Capt'n Midnight

Edups wrote: »

Please let's not allow this to decend into fighting gentlemen

Clinton ain't no gentleman.

briany

Dohnjoe wrote: »

This is wrong on so many levels

Branson had a meeting with both candidates, one talked about the economy, jobs, education, foreign policy passionately

The other said how they would spend the time destroying 5 individuals who didn't lend them a money at a specific point in their career

Hillary certainly wouldn't be my choice, but Trump is an absolute populist, a used car salesman of the highest order, has no credentials for office

He has no qualms about whipping up millions of people with irresponsible (and even dangerous) conspiracies, according to politifact he has lied more than any other recent presidential candidate, has caused unprecedented division in his own party and, as far as I know, is the only candidate who has challenged the democratic system in 200+ years

The reason he is popular is because of his un-politically correct, anti-establishment rhetoric.. which is all a sham anyway, he's devoted his entire life to becoming one of the elites in life - now he's pretending to support the working man

The real worry isn't Trump, but it's the huge support his racist, bigoted and ignorant messages garner. Not to mention the vast swamp of crazy and hatred he has tapped into

He'd make a fantastic used car salesman, but president, not so much

The thing that will happen with Hillary is that all that crazy and hate that Trump has stirred up will be told to sit down and shut the F up. Trump will move on to promoting his hotels and maybe his new TV network if that comes to fruition. I expect that he'll slowly distance himself from his most controversial positions in the decade to come.

But while that's all going on, the sentiment that Trump tapped into won't be going anywhere because little will change in the lives of his supporters for that to be the case. It will sit there and it will fester, and fester and fester. It might be Trump's worst legacy that his inability to get elected will only give rise to a man with Trump's positions but also real political smarts and someone relatively impervious to the kind of muck racking that has shattered Trump. A sort of Tea Party Obama, I suppose.

oik

Dohnjoe wrote: »

This is wrong on so many levels

Branson had a meeting with both candidates, one talked about the economy, jobs, education, foreign policy passionately

The other said how they would spend the time destroying 5 individuals who didn't lend them a money at a specific point in their career

Hillary certainly wouldn't be my choice, but Trump is an absolute populist, a used car salesman of the highest order, has no credentials for office

He has no qualms about whipping up millions of people with irresponsible (and even dangerous) conspiracies, according to politifact he has lied more than any other recent presidential candidate, has caused unprecedented division in his own party and, as far as I know, is the only candidate who has challenged the democratic system in 200+ years

The reason he is popular is because of his un-politically correct, anti-establishment rhetoric.. which is all a sham anyway, he's devoted his entire life to becoming one of the elites in life - now he's pretending to support the working man

The real worry isn't Trump, but it's the huge support his racist, bigoted and ignorant messages garner. Not to mention the vast swamp of crazy and hatred he has tapped into

He'd make a fantastic used car salesman, but president, not so much

Oh yes I'll definitely believe Richard Branson who obviously doesn't have a stake in the outcome.

"according to Politifact" give me a break. Politifact are ridiculously biased and have credibility whatsoever.

lawlolawl

I've wanted Trump to win from day one simply because the entire concept is ludicrous and he won't be able to do anything dangerous anyway once in power.

The scandals about him have been fairly harmless but up until last week I thought they had done too much damage to his campaign and Hillary was a shoe in.

Now, after Hillary being outed as being ropey as ****, I reckon we are actually going to see President Donald J Trump.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

Timberrrrrrrr

Fred Swanson wrote: »

She has been connected with Anthony Weiner a suspected paedophile. That will do her campaign no good.

I am so looking forward to Julian Assange dropping the fatal blow this week. Bring it on.

Trump is in court soon on suspicion of raping a 13 year old, doesn't that make him a suspected paedophile too?

8-10

Dohnjoe wrote: »

and, as far as I know, is the only candidate who has challenged the democratic system in 200+ years

Rutherford B Hayes? Look up the Presidential race of 1876 if you want to see a truly rigged election!

8-10

Also thread needs poll. Hard to sort through everyone's predictions. Would be good for people to clearly outline their predicted winner and margin of victory in terms of electoral college votes won.

Fleawuss

Clinton will probably make it at this stage. Unless something dramatic is found in the "mother lode". But essentially she is damaged goods and a lame duck as the email thing could drag on into her presidency. It's s measure of how ****ed up the Dems and Reps are that these two are the best on offer; for anyone who thinks alienation from establishment politics has no basis look at the situation. People are desperately turning to Trump and those who regard him with horror can only turn to Clinton.

I reckon a lot of people are sick of the passivity they are being reduced to by politics they and policies they never got to vote on. Brexit angst is real and not limited to the U.K.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

Timberrrrrrrr

Fred Swanson wrote: »

It is a civil case not a criminal one. Just some gold digger looking for money.

That's some mighty fine victim blaming there Fred, Not even heard a shred of evidence and you have already decided that Trump is innocent and the alleged victim is nothing but a gold digger :rolleyes:

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

Aph2016

Trump should win, neither are great candidates but Hillary is a disgrace and will probably edge it due to the female vote. Imagine voting for a person simply because she's a woman. She's as corrupt as they come.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.