It's here: Election Day in America. Indecision 2016.

Amerika

Say it with me.... PRESIDENT TRUMP.

Amerika

Amazingfun wrote: »

Amerika wrote: »

I'm watching MSNBC. It's fun watching James Carville going certifiably mad.

Took over an hour and a half to vote tonight. Never took more than 15 minutes to vote before. Amazing to see the Trump enthusiasm of the people in the voting line in big blue Pennsylvania. This really is an exciting election.

A big hug and high **five** for getting out to vote!

And ty for the Carville tip, I mustn't miss that, lol

Hugs back at you. Exciting night, isn't it? Guess those shy Trump voters were real.

Cookie_Monster

Amerika wrote: »

Guess those shy Trump voters were real.

well not many people will openly admit they're racist, sexist bigots. America has just shown though that behind closed doors a an awful lot of people think those things are ok.

listermint

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

well not many people will openly admit they're racist, sexist bigots. America has just shown though that behind closed doors a an awful lot of people think those things are ok.

There's a boggie man in the closet taking jobs.... Mexicans oh and Muslims.

It has nothing to do with wall street people like Trump shipping jobs to China and the far east...


Trump will fix all that

Amerika

Let the sour grapes begin.

Nody

Amerika wrote: »

Let the sour grapes begin.

Well Amerika this election, like the Brexit vote, will be like pissing in your pants; it feels warm at first but soon it becomes a really bad idea (personal opinion obviously). But that's the democracy for you; you get the government you deserve and I wish all the citizens leaving USA best of luck and the once remaining to look back in 4 years time on what actually changed seeing how the house, senate and president were all republicans so they have all the power to turn America great again.

In the end I expect nothing major will change in Washington, American trade will decline and China will teach Trump exactly how much of a scrotum hold they got on America if he tries to **** with them by setting up trade barriers. I guess the real winner will be the coal industry who'll get lower requirements on going green etc. and Trump's companies who'll get more tax rebates in various forms while the divide between rich and everyone else will grow faster and wider.

AllGunsBlazing

K-9 wrote: »

Yep, that's my fear.

We know better, Don't we?

My fear is social media lets us repeat the mistakes of history just quicker, and us warning about the dangers of nationalism as shown again and again throughout history, are just experts and know it alls.

We've got to the stage that being open to a change of opinion and fact throughout your life is a weakness, sticking to your belief no matter what, because reddit and twitter safe spaces which you carefully select to agree with you, is a truism!

Feck it. Us geeks thought we'd solved it all.

Pretty much it in a nutshell.

K-9

Yep, Amerika, ye have the President, the courts and the 2 houses, no checks and balances. Nobody to blame next time out.


Kind of exhilarating but a bit scary at the same time!

26000 Elephants

K-9 wrote: »

Yep, Amerika, ye have the President, the courts and the 2 houses, no checks and balances. Nobody to blame next time out.


Kind of exhilarating but a bit scary at the same time!

I can see the US becoming a global finance tax haven with a $1.75/hr minimum wage and zero carbon taxes. The Chinese will be furious.

I will give Trump about 6 months before his supporters start throwing around the I-word.

GT_TDI_150

26000 Elephants wrote: »

I can see the US becoming a global finance tax haven with a $1.75/hr minimum wage and zero carbon taxes. The Chinese will be furious.

I will give Trump about 6 months before his supporters start throwing around the I-word.

Yo u expect him to be alive in 6months? :eek:

GT_TDI_150

GT_TDI_150 wrote: »

Yo u expect him to be alive in 6months? :eek:

I've been wondering about that myself. The first things a colleague said to me this morning was ''they'll shoot him'.

The problem there (apart from the whole murder issue) is that you'd be left with an even worse President: Mike Pence, who unlike Trump, really believes in ultra conservatism.

99 people were thinking along rather more constitutional lines at 5 a.m. this morning.

briany

Well, I was entirely wrong about it all. Truly a historic night.

In a way it was satisfying to watch because for months polls had all been indicating one thing, the media had been telling people how they should think, every scandal in the book was coming out against Trump, and people turned around and said they didn't want to be told what to think and went their own way. This might prompt the media into a little bit of collective soul-searching because last night highlighted a massive disconnect between themselves and the media.

What happens now is anyone's guess. What will Trump's actual positions in office be. Will he be a sock puppet for the Republican Party (or the 'men behind the curtain' if you believe that) or will he carry his maverick attitude into his term in office? Seems to me like he was already distancing himself from his supporters last night, because he eschewed the 'Make America Great Again' cap which he was wearing all throughout his campaign. It's like he's made a pivot towards presidential without missing a beat and jettisoning the wingnut sector of his support in the process.

I do think Trump will try abolish Obamacare and go after the oil in the Middle East in a not-so-subtle way. If he touches anything to do with gay marriage or abortion, I think it'll more be Pence's agenda.

KingBrian2

When people were walking out of their homes today did they notice dead birds or cats lying on the ground. I certainty did not the end of the world has not come.:cool:

Skylinehead

KingBrian2 wrote: »

When people were walking out of their homes today did they notice dead birds or cats lying on the ground. I certainty did not the end of the world has not come.:cool:

He's not president yet!

Overheal

KingBrian2 wrote: »

When people were walking out of their homes today did they notice dead birds or cats lying on the ground. I certainty did not the end of the world has not come.:cool:

Forest fires actually. Thought it was fog at first but no mistaking the smell.

CMOTDibbler

briany wrote: »

Well, I was entirely wrong about it all. Truly a historic night.

In a way it was satisfying to watch because for months polls had all been indicating one thing, the media had been telling people how they should think, every scandal in the book was coming out against Trump, and people turned around and said they didn't want to be told what to think and went their own way. This might prompt the media into a little bit of collective soul-searching because last night highlighted a massive disconnect between themselves and the media.

Just on the polls. I know it will be trotted out that the polls were wrong, but they actually weren't.

The people who got it really wrong were the poll modelers. The likes of Nate Silver and RCP have egg on their faces because their models completely got it wrong. Their models seemed to ignore the fact that the polls in the last week were inside the margin for error. Yes, they made some adjustments, but they weren't close enough.

Those polls that were calling a tie at the end get the gold star.

Brian?

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Just on the polls. I know it will be trotted out that the polls were wrong, but they actually weren't.

The people who got it really wrong were the poll modelers. The likes of Nate Silver and RCP have egg on their faces because their models completely got it wrong. Their models seemed to ignore the fact that the polls in the last week were inside the margin for error. Yes, they made some adjustments, but they weren't close enough.

Those polls that were calling a tie at the end get the gold star.

Yup. All of the "surprise" results were within the margin of error. No shy voter, no Bradley effect, just normal statistical error.

Harry Angstrom

Brian? wrote: »

Yup. All of the "surprise" results were within the margin of error. No shy voter, no Bradley effect, just normal statistical error.

And I suppose the British General Election and Brexit polls were kinda right as well? :rolleyes:
You see, the problem with polls of any kind is that some people are reticent to admit what way they intend to vote. The capacity for human capriciousness and privacy is never factored into these highly scientific polls. The pollsters can spin it any way they want, but they'll never admit they got it well and truly wrong.

CMOTDibbler

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

And I suppose the British General Election and Brexit polls were kinda right as well? :rolleyes:
You see, the problem with polls of any kind is that some people are reticent to admit what way they intend to vote. The capacity for human capriciousness and privacy is never factored into these highly scientific polls. The pollsters can spin it any way they want, but they'll never admit they got it well and truly wrong.

The Brexit polls were generally pretty spot on. There was one outlier poll on the eve of the vote, but the trend towards leave was increasing.

The issue for polls has always been the same. The undecided voters who are polled will skew the results one way or another as they are either discounted or just split along the decided lines.

There's no easy way to deal with that. Tracking polls are probably the best in that regard as they have consistently been closer to the result than the more standard polling models.

The thing people seem to ignore with polls though, is the trend. If you watched the polls before this election, they trended down for Hillary after the Comey announcement. That trend only started to reverse very slightly in the final day or two. At that point it was too close to call. There were polls showing Trump ahead by up to 5 points and Hillary ahead by up to 4.

The tracking polls were either Trump ahead or a tie. LA Times: Trump +3, IBD: Trump +2 on the day of the election.

CMOTDibbler

Just as an example, Here's RCP polls average for Florida. You can see the effect of Comey's intervention quite clearly.

alastair

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

And I suppose the British General Election and Brexit polls were kinda right as well? :rolleyes:
You see, the problem with polls of any kind is that some people are reticent to admit what way they intend to vote. The capacity for human capriciousness and privacy is never factored into these highly scientific polls. The pollsters can spin it any way they want, but they'll never admit they got it well and truly wrong.

There's some discussion on 538 about the notion of 'shy Trump voters' skewing the polling results. They don't put much credit into that, beyond some women Trump voters (for obvious and unique reasons). It's rather more likely that rust belt Trump voters (where polls fared worst) simply didn't engage with pollsters because they didn't trust them.

What's most interesting to me is the failure of both candidates to get out the vote. Both Trump and Hillary got less votes that Mitt Romney did last time, with a larger electorate at play. It certainly puts paid to the notion that the Trump rallies were indicators of a mass support for the candidate. Romney didn't get the big numbers at his shindigs, and pulled a far more respectable vote.

Brian?

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

And I suppose the British General Election and Brexit polls were kinda right as well? :rolleyes:
You see, the problem with polls of any kind is that some people are reticent to admit what way they intend to vote. The capacity for human capriciousness and privacy is never factored into these highly scientific polls. The pollsters can spin it any way they want, but they'll never admit they got it well and truly wrong.

Roll your eyes as much as you like, but the Brexit polls were pretty were as close as any poll can be. I don't recall how they looked for the general.

The pollsters don't need to spin anything, but a lot of people need a lesson in statistics.

Harry Angstrom

Brian? wrote: »

Roll your eyes as much as you like, but the Brexit polls were pretty were as close as any poll can be. I don't recall how they looked for the general.

The pollsters don't need to spin anything, but a lot of people need a lesson in statistics.

Here, I'll refresh your memory:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11374181/latest-poll-tracker.html

K-9

Oddly enough the last Irish Times poll in the last 2 general elections here got it pretty much spot on! That doesn't mean they called the election 5 days out, it means no sudden changed happened in the last week or so.

I can't see how anybody can argue that Comey wasn't influential. The lead was 6 or 7 points at that stage, doubts about polls or not that's a significant lead.

Brian?

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Here, I'll refresh your memory:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11374181/latest-poll-tracker.html

I am not informed enough to make a critical analysis of the British general election polls, sorry.

However, my point on the Presidential election polls stands. Statistical margin for error, not lies.

Overheal

Yep, even 538 had the result within their 80% probability window. Can't always trust the mean.

K-9

Overheal wrote: »

Yep, even 538 had the result within their 80% probability window. Can't always trust the mean.

There was a pretty big health warning attached their final call.

Still, lots of soul searching for the poll companies!

CMOTDibbler

Brian? wrote: »

I am not informed enough to make a critical analysis of the British general election polls, sorry.

However, my point on the Presidential election polls stands. Statistical margin for error, not lies.

The main problem with the GE poll in Britain was with weighting. It seems that how pollsters treat undecided voters is the likely cause.

Undecideds made up to 17% of polling data. That can cause a big skew from the final result. There are methods to eliminate the undecideds but it requires more than a simple yes/no questioning method. Longer conversations are required and many polling companies won't do this.

But the US polling data was pretty close. The RCP average at the end of the polling cycle showed Clinton +3.2. That's within the margin for error.