Milk Price III

mahoney_j

alps wrote: »

Marginally up on 2018, however were going to have a greater range on the milk league. We have the west Cork gang easily paying out well above the rest.

Their 2 will change around a bit with 2 or 3 of the higher contenders here having undertaken and about to undertake some extraordinary expenditure, not only will repay,ents but bank requirements for higher profits, will see a strained milk price.

North Cork and Aurivo to climb through these ranks, while Lakeland/LacPatrick stay heavy breathing for a while after their copulation. The plcs will be interesting....guessing they'll still want to guard the bottom section of the league in case anyone should fall out.

On MSA's , opportunities to give notice of leaving, will pass off with single digit siqnaturies, however there may be a coop launch a different template to the one currently in use.

Brexit won't happen, as yet anyway, so Strathroy will continue business as usual....

Result 0.5 to 2.5c ahead of 2018, depending on who you supply...

Paragraph 2 is something that is giving me concern for next few years because my coop Arrabawn fits that bill perfectly ,we need to invest money but I think we’re going a bit too far ,don’t think books are or will be strong enough for is to maintain our position of last few years and meet the hefty repayements ,milk price will suffer

whelan2

Anyone else miss out on the winter bonus with glanbia for December milk?

Mortelaro

Yes it's missing and the lactose bonus

whelan2

Mortelaro wrote: »

Yes it's missing and the lactose bonus

Big loss here anyway

Timmaay

Got my Glanbia liquid and winter bonus exit form in the post today. One of the conditions are that I undertake not to give notice to terminate the MSA prior to 31dec 2022. And when you give notice you have to wait 2yrs? So I'm basically locked into another 5yr MSA ugh. How does this sh1t get by the competition authority?

Timmaay

Mortelaro wrote: »

Yes it's missing and the lactose bonus

I don't think there is an dec lactation bonus. Only Nov and Feb?

And see the image below from end of your milk statement on how to qualify:

Timmaay

Timmaay wrote: »

I don't think there is an dec lactation bonus. Only Nov and Feb?

And see the image below from end of your milk statement on how to qualify:

.

whelan2

Apparently with milk supplies in November being way ahead of the year before most people winter bonus for November and December was used up then so alot of suppliers got no winter bonus for December. January and February gave a new allocation so we will have a winter bonus in the January cheque in February iykwim

atlantic mist

got paid winter milk here on quota allocation under new scheme, supplied twice winter quota for nov and got paid bonus only on new amount of winter milk quota for nov not supply
same for dec

though new scheme took years supply - Nov 2018 to Oct 2019

Mortelaro

Timmaay wrote: »

I don't think there is an dec lactation bonus. Only Nov and Feb?

And see the image below from end of your milk statement on how to qualify:

October aswell I think but not February
The winter bonus dates back to the late 1990's when your surplus milk went to fill a Bailey's contract for one year
After that it's monetary value was fixed and paid out in the winter
Some suppliers who had small liquid contracts at the time have a lot of it if they had a lot of surplus milk at the time

whelan2

Mortelaro wrote: »

October aswell I think but not February
The winter bonus dates back to the late 1990's when your surplus milk went to fill a Bailey's contract for one year
After that it's monetary value was fixed and paid out in the winter
Some suppliers who had small liquid contracts at the time have a lot of it if they had a lot of surplus milk at the time

It's all very confusing.

Timmaay

whelan2 wrote: »

It's all very confusing.

My dad isn't very impressed with the winter milk exit scheme, our combined liquid and winter bailey's bonus worth 8800 a yr, and the exit scheme only pays us 13k now and 4k next winter. And he has a fair point, it would absolutely suit me to stay where I am for another few yrs, using the late calving HOs to fill my small liquid quota in Jan.

Mortelaro

Timmaay wrote: »

My dad isn't very impressed with the winter milk exit scheme, our combined liquid and winter bailey's bonus worth 8800 a yr, and the exit scheme only pays us 13k now and 4k next winter. And he has a fair point, it would absolutely suit me to stay where I am for another few yrs, using the late calving HOs to fill my small liquid quota in Jan.

You've until feb 19th to decide on that I think
Assuming you fulfil the 650 litres a day min supply,you'd be fine in the no expansion winter plan

But if you fall below that you will be fined 4c/l
That won't be enforced untill 2021 afaik

If your extra COP on that 650 litres a day (or more)versus producing it in the summer is not covered by the 7c/l bonus and you have the MP to do it as Summer milk,then it won't make sense in my humble opinion
Lump sums are one thing but there's a bigger picture around the lowest possible cost of production which wouldn't be in the winter

whelan2

What's the minimum milk collection?

Timmaay

Mortelaro wrote: »

You've until feb 19th to decide on that I think
Assuming you fulfil the 650 litres a day min supply,you'd be fine in the no expansion winter plan

But if you fall below that you will be fined 4c/l
That won't be enforced untill 2021 afaik

If your extra COP on that 650 litres a day (or more)versus producing it in the summer is not covered by the 7c/l bonus and you have the MP to do it as Summer milk,then it won't make sense in my humble opinion
Lump sums are one thing but there's a bigger picture around the lowest possible cost of production which wouldn't be in the winter

I'm only doing 650l every 3days at the min lol. Athlo that's in part because I culled all empties and some older late calvers due to lacking fodder.

Timmaay

whelan2 wrote: »

What's the minimum milk collection?

400l per collection.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Another 18k tonnes of skim sold at E1585, leaving just 4k tonnes in stores now so the overhang is gone and skim prices heading upwards just as we are starting to supply large quantities of milk again.


https://www.farmersjournal.ie/over-18-500t-of-smp-sold-out-of-intervention-435619

Gawddawggonnit

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Another 18k tonnes of skim sold at E1585, leaving just 4k tonnes in stores now so the overhang is gone and skim prices heading upwards just as we are starting to supply large quantities of milk again.


https://www.farmersjournal.ie/over-18-500t-of-smp-sold-out-of-intervention-435619

Bel came out with a minimum price for base milk @ 35cpl + vat for the whole of 2019.
They’re always a good indicator.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Bel came out with a minimum price for base milk @ 35cpl + vat for the whole of 2019.
They’re always a good indicator.

I'd be thinking low 30s base price here for the year, tbh. A lot will depend on how the US deals with the huge stocks of products that Trump seems determined to make sure they can't sell anywhere. Ever.


And Brexit...

moneyheer

400l per collection.
Maybe I misheard farm development manager, but was sure he said 200l, when I was talking to him about getting out of liquid milk earlier in the month

whelan2

moneyheer wrote: »

400l per collection.
Maybe I misheard farm development manager, but was sure he said 200l, when I was talking to him about getting out of liquid milk earlier in the month

Still being collected every day here.

dalalada

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Bel came out with a minimum price for base milk @ 35cpl + vat for the whole of 2019.
They’re always a good indicator.

I'd be thinking low 30s base price here for the year, tbh. A lot will depend on how the US deals with the huge stocks of products that Trump seems determined to make sure they can't sell anywhere. Ever.


And Brexit...

What's "bel"?

According to cost of living demographics farmers should be paid in 60c a litre. it was 30p at a stage back in the 20th century

Mortelaro

moneyheer wrote: »

400l per collection.
Maybe I misheard farm development manager, but was sure he said 200l, when I was talking to him about getting out of liquid milk earlier in the month

Min collection is 250 litres according to the glanbia farm focus leaflet enclosed with the last milk statement
I presume it must be sent also to those with no milk

Mooooo

Dairygold next fixed price scheme is out. Advertising and in the letter as 31.5 plus vat for 3 years. 5 or 10% of '18 supply. Saying it includes the quality and sustainability bonuses of up to 0.65cent. These have been added post solids adjustment so actual fixed price will be 30.85c incl vat at 3.3p and 3.6bf. Sustainablilty includes milk recording and herd health testing afaik. Must ring the manager to confirm.
Have been in the first one and not in the next 2. Haven't lost out by not being in them.

Castlekeeper

Mooooo wrote: »

Dairygold next fixed price scheme is out. Advertising and in the letter as 31.5 plus vat for 3 years. 5 or 10% of '18 supply. Saying it includes the quality and sustainability bonuses of up to 0.65cent. These have been added post solids adjustment so actual fixed price will be 30.85c incl vat at 3.3p and 3.6bf. Sustainablilty includes milk recording and herd health testing afaik. Must ring the manager to confirm.
Have been in the first one and not in the next 2. Haven't lost out by not being in them.

This doesn't seem very tempting.

Mooooo

It's longer than the previous scheme, i think, which is an improvement but the price is low. Ye prob think I drone on about it now but the habit they have of purporting the bonus to be a part of the base price annoys the ****e out of me.

Injuryprone

Mooooo wrote: »

It's longer than the previous scheme, i think, which is an improvement but the price is low. Ye prob think I drone on about it now but the habit they have of purporting the bonus to be a part of the base price annoys the ****e out of me.

Afaik that bonus is plus vat, so the real base would be reduced a bit further!

Wildsurfer

Castlekeeper wrote: »

Mooooo wrote: »

Dairygold next fixed price scheme is out. Advertising and in the letter as 31.5 plus vat for 3 years. 5 or 10% of '18 supply. Saying it includes the quality and sustainability bonuses of up to 0.65cent. These have been added post solids adjustment so actual fixed price will be 30.85c incl vat at 3.3p and 3.6bf. Sustainablilty includes milk recording and herd health testing afaik. Must ring the manager to confirm.
Have been in the first one and not in the next 2. Haven't lost out by not being in them.

This doesn't seem very tempting.

Why not? They are offering a fixed price for 3 years(on 10% of last years supply figures max) at the same price as it's currently at. You must forsee great prospects for milk price despite Brexit?

alps

Wildsurfer wrote: »

Why not? They are offering a fixed price for 3 years(on 10% of last years supply figures max) at the same price as it's currently at. You must forsee great prospects for milk price despite Brexit?

That's a pretty good point. It's something to be considered in a coop that if I'm correct relies on the UK for 40% of its export....maybe wrong, but cheese to UK is a huge part of its portfolio.

Still think well have tariff free access there, however lots to consider from the above point.

jaymla627

alps wrote: »

That's a pretty good point. It's something to be considered in a coop that if I'm correct relies on the UK for 40% of its export....maybe wrong, but cheese to UK is a huge part of its portfolio.

Still think well have tariff free access there, however lots to consider from the above point.

It’s telling Glanbia don’t seem to be announcing any new schemes for 19, three schemes finished up here at the end of 18 and noting as of yet rolled out to replace them, it smacks of them holding of to see how britexit pans out