Milk Price III

alps

I've just had my 5th serious request for in calf heifers in the past 10 days and we hadn't advertised. They're now sold, but all inquiries have been through acquaintances around the country for guys converting from beef....

The flight from beef is really taking off

mf240

Mortelaro wrote: »

Many new suppliers wouldn't mind a new supplier tax for the required new plant anyway because they think this monthly milk cheque is a gift..
They just can't believe this monthly windfall...
So a few of them have said to me anyway

I guess they'll know all about it at 19cpl

We all will.

K.G.

mf240 wrote: »

I think we should pull up the ladder immediately

I think we should be inflating the life raft

mf240

K.G. wrote: »

I think we should be inflating the life raft

Think siobhan has our raft gone.

whelan2

mf240 wrote: »

Think siobhan has our raft gone.

Aye it's fairly deflated at this stage with all the lads hanging on...

awaywithyou

alps wrote: »

I've just had my 5th serious request for in calf heifers in the past 10 days and we hadn't advertised. They're now sold, but all inquiries have been through acquaintances around the country for guys converting from beef....

The flight from beef is really taking off

willl it lead to the Dairy industry becoming like the present beef situation?

mf240

awaywithyou wrote: »

willl it lead to the Dairy industry becoming like the present beef situation?

Thats where it's headed.

Water John

The first issue will be some dairy bull calves will be unsaleable next spring.

mf240

Water John wrote: »

The first issue will be some dairy bull calves will be unsaleable next spring.

Kebabs your uncle.

Water John

There's only so many the animals in Fota can eat.

mf240

Water John wrote: »

There's only so many the animals in Fota can eat.

The animals at 3 am on Sunday morning after 15 pints will handle the rest.

K.G.

Panch18 wrote: »

I read a poster on another forum who i believe is involved in the West Cork coops some way and he said that the Coops will be stopping taking new entrants in a couple of years

Any basis in that?

Depends on who s in there.if its people like me no but if its greedy basterds.just to say there hasn't been a massive in flux in west cork .i think we are down suppliers. And as the bull macabe said"outsiders,we dont want outsiders around here"��

alps

awaywithyou wrote: »

willl it lead to the Dairy industry becoming like the present beef situation?

Its getting there very fast. We're way off European prices, looks to me to be an inability to sell the increased production through our traditional lucrative Ornua markets. With the flight from beef, we could be looking at another wave of new milk, and stock sales which typically added 6 to 10c to the litre of milk, are now insignificant. Average price of milk is down this year pretty much the equivalent of the extra feed cost associated with last year's drought.

This back end is going to be tighter than many realise..

Big difference however, is that complain as we may, the coops will return what's left over after costs..

wrangler

K.G. wrote: »

Depends on who s in there.if its people like me no but if its greedy basterds

Does any one know what'll happen the strathroy milk from the south now, will there be any problem crossing the border, will there be a tariff either way

K.G.

Water John wrote: »

If a coop cannot provide the service for a new member they are not obliged to take them on.
A coop exists to advance the interests of its members. It is not under an obligation to 'potential members'.

Some misunderstand coop principles.

Unless it has legitimate reasons to refuse someone membership in its catchment area it has to provide provide the service if it does provide the service

Gawddawggonnit

alps wrote: »

Its getting there very fast. We're way off European prices, looks to me to be an inability to sell the increased production through our traditional lucrative Ornua markets. With the flight from beef, we could be looking at another wave of new milk, and stock sales which typically added 6 to 10c to the litre of milk, are now insignificant. Average price of milk is down this year pretty much the equivalent of the extra feed cost associated with last year's drought.

This back end is going to be tighter than many realise..

Big difference however, is that complain as we may, the coops will return what's left over after costs..just like the beef factories.

Fixed your post there Alps...


I’m a bit taken back by this post tbh. I was looking at the European milk price league earlier and the Irish processors are waaaay behind the top payers. Lactalis are even miles ahead (ffs!).
I had this down to management coming to grips with a huge increase in product to sell and thus struggling to get market share. But no, it’s deeper than that it seems.
Ireland’s got the raw material and lacks the savoir faire to capitalize on it. Is it a lack of investment in R&D?
The price differential between what I’m getting and what you’re getting is enormous.
I’d be concerned about the next price crash, it’ll sort the men from the boys.

Water John

Yes it's down to R & D and market niche development. Most processors have a culture that hangs over from both quota and intervention times.
Turn the milk into some base commodity and feck it out the door. In the meantime be sure that senior managers are well paid and especially have good pensions.

whelan2

Water John wrote: »

Yes it's down to R & D and market niche development. Most processors have a culture that hangs over from both quota and intervention times.
Turn the milk into some base commodity and feck it out the door. In the meantime be sure that senior managers are well paid and especially have good pensions.

And pay as little as possible to the farmer for the milk

148multi

whelan2 wrote: »

And pay as little as possible to the farmer for the milk

What's the story with lakeland laying off workers

kevthegaff

Atm our co op is investing in 20%more capacity, if a crash hits will the extra capacity be needed. Interesting and precarious times. Im considering throwing up land in overpaying for I rent year by year. Between calf/cow prices and inputs up I see less and less of a return and that's after upping numbers. Herself at home with the kids and a nice bit of debt. I do think the second income on farms are massaging figures for guys as well as good bps some guys are still getting

whelan2

148multi wrote: »

What's the story with lakeland laying off workers

I think it's just a spin off from the merger with lackpatrick. Was to be expected really

wrangler

kevthegaff wrote: »

Atm our co op is investing in 20%more capacity, if a crash hits will the extra capacity be needed. Interesting and precarious times. Im considering throwing up land in overpaying for I rent year by year. Between calf/cow prices and inputs up I see less and less of a return and that's after upping numbers. Herself at home with the kids and a nice bit of debt. I do think the second income on farms are massaging figures for guys as well as good bps some guys are still getting

I'm beginning to wonder will my ten year lease last as well, 8 years to go

jaymla627

wrangler wrote: »

I'm beginning to wonder will my ten year lease last as well, 8 years to go

A bit of leeway re rent payments and a grace period/reduced rate for a while if milk tanks for a period and you’d be grand, id reckon you’d be taking the other approach though out the door on the first missed payment

wrangler

jaymla627 wrote: »

A bit of leeway re rent payments and a grace period/reduced rate for a while if milk tanks for a period and you’d be grand, id reckon you’d be taking the other approach though out the door on the first missed payment

I'd be slow to lose my tenants, There's not much better out there .
hopefully it won't come to that

Gawddawggonnit

kevthegaff wrote: »

Atm our co op is investing in 20%more capacity, if a crash hits will the extra capacity be needed. Interesting and precarious times. Im considering throwing up land in overpaying for I rent year by year. Between calf/cow prices and inputs up I see less and less of a return and that's after upping numbers. Herself at home with the kids and a nice bit of debt. I do think the second income on farms are massaging figures for guys as well as good bps some guys are still getting

Many moons ago I was harvesting spring barley for a neighbor that was particularly poor (the barley). I remember commenting that it was a bit thin...’yes you’d chase a mouse around in that barley, but if the price was good enough, it’d be ok’ was his reply. I’ll never forget that. Price is everything.

In the last price crash I got what you’re getting now, 28cpl, and there was feck all margin for me after paying wages etc. Just turning money around really.

I posted in the beef price thread last year that I’d fixed a price with a factory for a year at €3.65 for R=, and was ridiculed for giving away beef at that price. Yes it was a poor price, but I had a margin, albeit a small one. The contract is up now and I’m pulling the plug on beef. No margin, no future. Luckily the only impact is I’ve left one man go. Easy go at beef if prices rise again...

Dairy is flying here now but our Coop can’t get enough milk to fill contracts.
There might be an extra few quid available also if I increase production again. They’re hinting that they might waive the processing costs...

Everything in farming is cyclical. The old thinking was to knuckle down, batten down the hatches, and ride out the bad times. I’m not so sure anymore. There’s too much cost involved to be digging a hole for yourself and thinking it’ll be easy to get back on track when the price rises. But when the ‘good’ times are only returning 30cpl...?

Mooooo

In 2016 when the price last tanked i sent out the most milk out of this place than ever before and more or less did nothing on farm investment wise. Now there was also no major weather events but it's prob what got me thru the year after. Dunno what will happen after Oct but the plan will be batten down the hatches and drive on what I can with milk. At least having a bank of feed in the yard will cover a bad spring etc next year altho due to weather the stuff in the pits isn't great.
Hard to know really before that, have a bit of work to do on farm as well as the loader needing changing but reluctant to go too far as existing debt/ a man to pay, along uncertainty over brexit and our exposure to it and coops cutting price has me holding back a bit. Spent 1700/ acre draining a bit of ground this year, have another 18 acres to do similar to along with farm roads not a mind upgrades to sheds and cubicles but shir we all have something to do all the time, it's when it's left go too long and it ends up needing to be done at the same time or too close together and puts pressure on then

Gawddawggonnit

jaymla627 wrote: »

A bit of leeway re rent payments and a grace period/reduced rate for a while if milk tanks for a period and you’d be grand, id reckon you’d be taking the other approach though out the door on the first missed payment

Slippery slope.
If a tenant can’t pay, he shouldn’t be in there.
A family tragedy or the like is understandable, but short on cash to pay for raw material, no way.

riddles

Not being a farmer but having worked on farms. Has the end of dairy quotas meant that increased production has meant more beef and reducing beef prices?

jaymla627

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Slippery slope.
If a tenant can’t pay, he shouldn’t be in there.
A family tragedy or the like is understandable, but short on cash to pay for raw material, no way.

Long term leases arrangement where sfp is involved are pretty messy to get out off, tax-free money on lease has to be paid back and then a bad tenant could pocket the sfp and tell landlord to sing for it, to be fair if milk drops to sub 25 cent and a bad year weather wise with rents at 200 acre plus along with handing back sfp no standalone dairy business could afford to pay it, would.be using outside money to cover it

farmertipp

jaymla627 wrote: »

wrangler wrote: »

I'm beginning to wonder will my ten year lease last as well, 8 years to go

A bit of leeway re rent payments and a grace period/reduced rate for a while if milk tanks for a period and you’d be grand, id reckon you’d be taking the other approach though out the door on the first missed payment

if leeway was shown in difficult periods fellows would pay even more than lunatic prices already paid and kick at first opportunity. guys leasing out should pick the sound guy who is not always the highest bidder