Milk Price III

jaymla627 · 04-12-2019 4:01pm

whelan2 wrote: »

How will the new glanbia fixed price scheme work. I assume you wont have spent 5cpl in inputs until late on in the year. Is the money paid when you reach that 5cpl of trading? Also do you have to have paid up for that 5cpl of trading too? Do you also get the trading bonus if you do go into the fixed price scheme

I'd say its paid out and if you dont meet 5 c threshold it would be taken back like late/early lactation bonus is, trading bonus isn't yet signed of on for 2020, but you would get it obviously

whelan2 · 12-12-2019 10:55am

Any word on November milk price?

whelan2 · 12-12-2019 2:23pm

whelan2 wrote: »

Any word on November milk price?

Glanbia will pay 30cpl an increase of 1cpl. This includes 1cpl of co op money

alps · 12-12-2019 3:32pm

whelan2 wrote: »

Glanbia will pay 30cpl an increase of 1cpl. This includes 1cpl of co op money

As the top up comes from a company you didn't sell the milk to, is the payment classed as payment for milk and does it fit the vat rebate scheme of 5.4%?

Buford T. Justice XIX · 12-12-2019 3:54pm

whelan2 wrote: »

Glanbia will pay 30cpl an increase of 1cpl. This includes 1cpl of co op money

Seeing as that will probably flush out the rest of the processors into an increase, Kerrys current fixed scheme for May to October look a bit short at 32.4c.

We'll probably see 31c by February, March at the latest.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 16-12-2019 11:16am

Kerry up 1c to 30.5c/l

Mortelaro · 16-12-2019 11:21am

alps wrote: »

As the top up comes from a company you didn't sell the milk to, is the payment classed as payment for milk and does it fit the vat rebate scheme of 5.4%?

Its added after vat,so doesn't include or prompt an extra 5.4% vat
Its entirely 1cpl from the sale of plc shares that were held by the CoOp

alps · 16-12-2019 1:15pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

Its added after vat,so doesn't include or prompt an extra 5.4% vat
Its entirely 1cpl from the sale of plc shares that were held by the CoOp

Does the coop earn a dividend on plc shares that it owns, and is this passed onto suppliers at some stage?

I'm trying in my head to legitimise a coop top Up!!!

If topping up from sale of plc shares , is it not just canabilising itself?

Mortelaro · 16-12-2019 1:30pm

alps wrote: »

Does the coop earn a dividend on plc shares that it owns, and is this passed onto suppliers at some stage?

yes

I'm trying in my head to legitimise a coop top Up!!!
If topping up from sale of plc shares , is it not just canabilising itself?

Yes

jaymla627 · 16-12-2019 2:20pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

yes

Yes

Cookie jar money from now on will be G11 share of profits after 3.2% margin is taken, its only pocket money the existing share spin out funds that's left when the collapse in share price this year is compared to it

Mortelaro · 16-12-2019 4:02pm

From the December IFA dairy Newsletter:

GLANBIA TAKES FIRST STEP TOWARDS MORE REALISTIC PRICES

Glanbia have just announced a 1c/l milk price increase for November milk, to 28.46c/l + VAT (30c/l incl VAT and 1c/l co-op top up).

This is an important first step, but only a first step, towards prices more in line with actual market returns.

Lakeland has been first to announce a price, and chose to hold at the October level.

Since early December:

The Ornua PPI for November trade has risen a further 1 point to 106.6 points or 31.9c/l incl VAT;
Fonterra have increased their 2019/20 payout to a mirange point of NZ$7.30/kg MS (equivalent to 31.23c/l incl VAT at Irish standard solids);
GDT SMP prices have reached their highest level in 5 years at US$3068/t, and WMP the highest in 3 years at US$3331/t;
Friesland Campina have increased their December price €0.91/100 kgs to €36.41/100 kgs (32.62c/l incl VAT at Irish standard solids);
EU average SMP prices have reached €2500/t for the first time since August 2014;
EU average butter prices have risen €30/t to €3660/t in the last week;
EU average whey powder prices have lifted 16% since mid September to €810/t

All these facts point to a continuing trend of steadily improving returns from the market place, caused by a good balance between slower milk supply with low stocks, and reasonable demand growth. A significant uplift in milk prices is well overdue.

orm0nd · 16-12-2019 6:49pm

arrabawn up 1c.

whelan2 · 16-12-2019 7:48pm

orm0nd wrote: »

arrabawn up 1c.

To what?

Mooooo · 17-12-2019 2:54pm

Dairygold up one to 29.5

whelan2 · 17-12-2019 3:00pm

39.47cpl for November

Buford T. Justice XIX · 17-12-2019 4:15pm

GDT down 5.1%, led by both skim and butter falling. Would this be a softening due to NZ hitting peak?

farmertipp · 17-12-2019 7:56pm

Dairygold have spent 350million on expansion and slid downhill in milk price as a result. The board are a weak lot.

Mooooo · 18-12-2019 2:23am

farmertipp wrote: »

Dairygold have spent 350million on expansion and slid downhill in milk price as a result. The board are a weak lot.

See Wolfe is budgeting 31.5 for next year's milk price, as opposed to returning what the the market will give...

jaymla627 · 18-12-2019 10:02am

Mooooo wrote: »

See Wolfe is budgeting 31.5 for next year's milk price, as opposed to returning what the the market will give...

If tracking the gdt and base price before 5% dip was 31.5 cent it would be back to 30 cent after that auction, I'd be very wary of commodity dairy markets at present, it's only coming out now that the Chinese economy was based on Anglo Irish lending practices that even Sean Fitzpatrick would of questioned....
When the proverbial hits the fan out their, and their currency gets devalued it will hit the powder markets hard which is what is driving Irish dairy prices currently

wrangler · 18-12-2019 11:51am

jaymla627 wrote: »

If tracking the gdt and base price before 5% dip was 31.5 cent it would be back to 30 cent after that auction, I'd be very wary of commodity dairy markets at present, it's only coming out now that the Chinese economy was based on Anglo Irish lending practices that even Sean Fitzpatrick would of questioned....
When the proverbial hits the fan out their, and their currency gets devalued it will hit the powder markets hard which is what is driving Irish dairy prices currently

Everyone should ask the wool merchants what the chinese are like to deal with, demand can crash overnight, There seems to be no pattern

orm0nd · 18-12-2019 2:22pm

whelan2 wrote: »

To what?

30.21 base

Got 42.182 for November

GrasstoMilk · 18-12-2019 3:45pm

jaymla627 wrote: »

If tracking the gdt and base price before 5% dip was 31.5 cent it would be back to 30 cent after that auction, I'd be very wary of commodity dairy markets at present, it's only coming out now that the Chinese economy was based on Anglo Irish lending practices that even Sean Fitzpatrick would of questioned....
When the proverbial hits the fan out their, and their currency gets devalued it will hit the powder markets hard which is what is driving Irish dairy prices currently

https://twitter.com/beefcentral/status/1206824661373345792?s=19

RightTurnClyde · 18-12-2019 8:43pm

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

https://twitter.com/beefcentral/status/1206824661373345792?s=19

Bit like the fodder crisis here when there was too much Alfalfa brought into the country, the Chinese buyers panicked and over bought beef and lamb.
And like the cows that Spring its taking a bit of time.for diet to adjust.
But they have a major protein problem, the worlds pig population is down by 30%, it will take time to restock.

RightTurnClyde · 18-12-2019 8:50pm

jaymla627 wrote: »

If tracking the gdt and base price before 5% dip was 31.5 cent it would be back to 30 cent after that auction, I'd be very wary of commodity dairy markets at present, it's only coming out now that the Chinese economy was based on Anglo Irish lending practices that even Sean Fitzpatrick would of questioned....
When the proverbial hits the fan out their, and their currency gets devalued it will hit the powder markets hard which is what is driving Irish dairy prices currently

The chinese powder market isn't all sunshine. Was talking to a person during the summer that's at the logistics end of getting powdered China that was saying that the baby powder market was drying up fast and that there would be lay offs in the factory here. I'd say that that market has already been a big drag on the milk proce in this country.
But since I talked to her the ASF situation has got alot worse. I'd say the protein shortage out there helped the ar*e not fall out of the milk price here

Buford T. Justice XIX · 18-12-2019 8:52pm

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Bit like the fodder crisis here when there was too much Alfalfa brought into the country, the Chinese buyers panicked and over bought beef and lamb.
And like the cows that Spring its taking a bit of time.for diet to adjust.
But they have a major protein problem, the worlds pig population is down by 30%, it will take time to restock.

I don't think it will be possible for China to restock to anywhere near where they were up to now. ASF is now so widespread and the regulations needed to eliminate it so easily ignored that they're going to have to find and develop a vaccine pretty damn quickly to start rebuilding breeding stock.
They will be a major importer of meat for a good few years to come.
Whether they are willing to pay for it or not is the question, I think.

jaymla627 · 18-12-2019 9:04pm

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

I don't think it will be possible for China to restock to anywhere near where they were up to now. ASF is now so widespread and the regulations needed to eliminate it so easily ignored that they're going to have to find and develop a vaccine pretty damn quickly to start rebuilding breeding stock.
They will be a major importer of meat for a good few years to come.
Whether they are willing to pay for it or not is the question, I think.

That's the sticking point, they might need x amount of meat/dairy protein but mighten have the price of it, our notion of paying for it, the leadership their wouldn't flinch at a widespread food shortage for the peasants once the higher hp in society where looked after

visatorro · 18-12-2019 11:26pm

The beef price and all the new entrants is going to be a massive stick to beat milk price aswell. China is never going to make any one rich. If paddy thinks he's on the pigs back we are in for a shock.