Milk Price III

whelan2

Did lakelands announce their price yet

Mortelaro

Timmaay wrote: »

The msa is a rolling 2yr contract, ie you need to give 2yrs notice. The very 1st one was 5yrs. I thought it was in 2014 though. It was around the time of the Wexford merger, the whole Strathroy thing put the frighteners on Glanbia.

Its 5 years with 2 years notice at year 3 to leave
You enter a new 5 year contract on year 5 so need to wait another 3 years to give notice
All new lmsa and winter contracts and spring also restarted the clock

You can leave a partnership though and start a new entity to move to another processor

Msa's being 5 years can be challenged on competition grounds
No one has yet that I am aware of

Buford T. Justice XIX

whelan2 wrote: »

Did lakelands announce their price yet

Lakelands up to 31.8c/l.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/lakeland-increases-milk-price-for-february-supplies/

Mooooo

Dairygold up to 31cent for Jan

Buford T. Justice XIX

GDT drops 2.9%.

Timmaay

Nearly 74c/l Jan nett price. My god Glanbia you really have redeemed yourselves! Well OK there is a 1500e loyalty bonus tagged onto my fairly pathetic 6500l of a Jan supply which skews the price slightly, fairly poor way of calculating the Jan price.

Buford T. Justice XIX

A bit on the reasons for the drop in the GDT, mostly due the Chinese demand.
https://www.milkbusiness.com/article/chinas-appetite-for-dairy-2019-supported-global-prices?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWlRRM05XUTVPREU1TTJNeSIsInQiOiJMZlgraGlJTW9yUzhjRFIxZUJ4R1ZnelBsSk9lT0h3SkhcL3BkZEVaZ25BVmtJRFY3TkhTWnlnQVdEVGVKTzh5VVBhQmFRbHIzZm5wMlZzYkRqVEZJUXJIZVhvRmFPWjhQbml4dmFKanJKTEo4V21oUjQybmJkQ0htc1wvQitFUGhZIn0%3D

Buford T. Justice XIX

And Rabobanks analysis of the current Chinese market.
https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/dairy/coronavirus-impact-on-chinese-dairy-sector.html

Gawddawggonnit

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

And Rabobanks analysis of the current Chinese market.
https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/dairy/coronavirus-impact-on-chinese-dairy-sector.html

My crowd emailed today saying that while they will honor commitments made until April, we should brace ourselves for the possibility of a short, sharp correction of milk price...lovely.
On the upside wheat price is moving in the right direction. Swings and roundabouts.

Mortelaro

Euro is down to 83p stg at the moment
That's a 15% RISE in the value of glanbias exports to the UK compared to last year for example
Absolutely no excuse for a price drop there is there even with the temporary Corona crisis in china

mahoney_j

Arrabawn up 0.5 cent to 31.71

Tobleronemad

Is there more to come out of the 13th payment as the Kerry boss “is committed” to the leading milk price?

Buford T. Justice XIX

Tobleronemad wrote: »

Is there more to come out of the 13th payment as the Kerry boss “is committed” to the leading milk price?

The 0.6c/l given the last time was paid without admittance of any underpayment by Kerry for the previous 5 years. The Co-op reckon there's still an underpayment of over 5c/l in total for those 5 years, fixed price milk supplied not being included in any underpayment.

Whether the Co-op will accept a lower payment than the outstanding 5c in return for an agreed method of calculating the leading price is the question.

There'll be a few more months of talks before the agreement goes back before the Arbitrator, I reckon.

Buford T. Justice XIX

https://twitter.com/DINtoday/status/1230504807288516608?s=19

whelan2

Glanbia results were out last week. Things are not looking good. Shares were 18 euro this time last year and now struggling to stay above 10 euro. Should they sell some of the US businesses or continue as they are. Will they be taken over. Are the energy drinks to blame for this. I bought the journal to read about it but didn't get a chance to open it yet

jaymla627

whelan2 wrote: »

Glanbia results were out last week. Things are not looking good. Shares were 18 euro this time last year and now struggling to stay above 10 euro. Should they sell some of the US businesses or continue as they are. Will they be taken over. Are the energy drinks to blame for this. I bought the journal to read about it but didn't get a chance to open it yet

Performance nutrition arm needs to be offloaded but the losses incurred due to buying companies at top dollar in this sector and now with their current value halved and more under the glanbia umbrella might be to much of a hit to take....
Business world sees Siobhan as a spoofer now and her ever ending list of excuses the Sunday independent business had a article on it, and it just stopped short of calling her one, their rapid expansion policy and linking bonuses to short term gains buying up every and any companies in America they could get their hands on has blown up big time and with a global recession likely on the back of the coronavirus pandemic I wouldn’t like to speculate the state glanbia plc will be in over the next few years

Mortelaro

Perhaps instead of business class flights to America and top hotels, the next all expenses paid free holiday for glanbia advisory council members and management should be a rickety old bus tour of the ring of Kerry with a stop off at a few kerry plants, a plc,taking in the number of issued shares is worth over 30 times Glanbia and made a profit of near a billion (more than bank of Ireland)
Maybe mingle with the Kerry managers to get to know them because soon enough that's who will own Glanbia

Buford T. Justice XIX

GDT down 1.2%, skim and WMP down and butter up.

kevthegaff

What he reckon will be the average base price 30c??

alps

Very good price chart

Check this out on Agriland - Milk Price Tracker 2020: How does your milk price compare? https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/milk-price-tracker-2020-how-does-your-milk-price-compare/

Buford T. Justice XIX

Not sure where to post this, tbh. For Kerry suppliers, the arbitration negotiations subcommittee has received a report on the progress being made and are examining it atm. It should be going to the directors in a few weeks and there should be news before the April advisory meetings.

No idea if it's positive or negative but that's what we were told tonight.

awaywithyou

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

Not sure where to post this, tbh. For Kerry suppliers, the arbitration negotiations subcommittee has received a report on the progress being made and are examining it atm. It should be going to the directors in a few weeks and there should be news before the April advisory meetings.

No idea if it's positive or negative but that's what we were told tonight.

who are the arbitration negotiations subcommittee and who are they receiving a report from???

Buford T. Justice XIX

awaywithyou wrote: »

who are the arbitration negotiations subcommittee and who are they receiving a report from???

From what I can make out, they're an extension of the negotiation team. The team do the negotiating and have a discussion with the rest of the subcommittee to agree what direction they should be heading and whether anything agreed is acceptable.

From talking to another lad last night, it seems there is an agreement in place subject to approval from both sides. He's normally fairly well clued in but I have no idea if there is a deal done or what is contained in it. Listowel next month could be interesting.

Their names would be well enough known, some are overdue leaving the board but Hunter-McGowan kept them on as they would be familiar to the issues involved and well experienced in negotiating with the PLC.

alps

Pressure

jaymla627

alps wrote: »

Pressure

Spring flush that’s coming eu wide is going to be like the perfect storm, re over-supply if product can’t be moved in required volumes through international shipping lanes, intervention stores could need to be opened up to take product of the market till this virus works its way through

blackdog1

jaymla627 wrote: »

Spring flush that’s coming eu wide is going to be like the perfect storm, re over-supply if product can’t be moved in required volumes through international shipping lanes, intervention stores could need to be opened up to take product of the market till this virus works its way through

I think we're in for a rough year with milk prices if oil prices continue to tumble or stay where they are.

jaymla627

blackdog1 wrote: »

I think we're in for a rough year with milk prices if oil prices continue to tumble or stay where they are.

90% of this years production here is fixed at 31.5 cent of a average , saudi Arabia are going to ramp up production to put oil under 40 dollars a barrel to put Russia under pressure to come back to talks to curb production under the opec umbrella, oil producing countries arent going to have to much free cash knocking around for dairy imports

mahoney_j

Massive uncertainty and instability atm due to oil prices and the virus .probably be a correction in prices but when the virus shows signs of containment demand and prices will bounce back .....when could be the issue

Mortelaro

jaymla627 wrote: »

Spring flush that’s coming eu wide is going to be like the perfect storm, re over-supply if product can’t be moved in required volumes through international shipping lanes, intervention stores could need to be opened up to take product of the market till this virus works its way through

Are you aware that there is no disease issue with world wide haulage,the corona virus doesn't survive more than 24hrs on a products surface, so what exactly would close international shipping lanes?

The only issue is with some countries requiring crew to be tested and a reduction in container capacity as china isnt exporting as much,how long will the container capacity be hit,not long
Fact is product that needs to be moved can be

kevthegaff

The more people in isolation, the more milk consumed with tea and coffee you would hope..