Milk Price III

greenfield21

alps wrote: »

Jim Woulfe on journal today looking for a life raft...

So it begins, I actually checked the ifj and agriland earlier and was pleasently surprised. I was hoping they were eventually going to come out and tell us how well positioned they are but that was been way to positive. Been serious if we don't get out of this fairly fast in a few weeks with this so called V shaped recovery I'll have to hide the cheque because the sh*t is going to seriously hit the fan.

greenfield21

Cme spot prices finish the week in freefall (I know many will say it has no relationship to our farm gate price but hey its worth a post)

Block cheddar $1.15 pp - lowest since July 09
Barrell $1.1375 pp - lowest since July 09
Butter $1.28 pp- lowest since Oct 09

Griselda

greenfield21 wrote: »

So it begins, I actually checked the ifj and agriland earlier and was pleasently surprised. I was hoping they were eventually going to come out and tell us how well positioned they are but that was been way to positive. Been serious if we don't get out of this fairly fast in a few weeks with this so called V shaped recovery I'll have to hide the cheque because the sh*t is going to seriously hit the fan.

Scary times mon ami.

jaymla627

greenfield21 wrote: »

So it begins, I actually checked the ifj and agriland earlier and was pleasently surprised. I was hoping they were eventually going to come out and tell us how well positioned they are but that was been way to positive. Been serious if we don't get out of this fairly fast in a few weeks with this so called V shaped recovery I'll have to hide the cheque because the sh*t is going to seriously hit the fan.

Unless the eu throws a bone and ups intervention prices to 24/25 cent, low 20’s is on the cards for most co-ops before the summer is out

memorystick

jaymla627 wrote: »

Unless the eu throws a bone and ups intervention prices to 24/25 cent, low 20’s is on the cards for most co-ops before the summer is out

Welcome to beef farming lads.

GrasstoMilk

jaymla627 wrote: »

Unless the eu throws a bone and ups intervention prices to 24/25 cent, low 20’s is on the cards for most co-ops before the summer is out

Great positivity as usual Jay

jaymla627

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

Great positivity as usual Jay

What’s your prediction for milk price in the next 6 months for a country that exports over 90% of its dairy production into a rapidly deteriorating market place , if a lad really had the cow stuck in the bog base price might be starting with a 1 instead of a 2 .....

GrasstoMilk

jaymla627 wrote: »

What’s your prediction for milk price in the next 6 months for a country that exports over 90% of its dairy production into a rapidly deteriorating market place , if a lad really had the cow stuck in the bog base price might be starting with a 1 instead of a 2 .....

The market hasnt been great for the last 6 weeks or more. China is starting to open up again after shutting up its ports completely, they'll need to rebuild those stocks they've used to feed there population. Its not going to be a great year for milk but it might t be as bad as 24/25c

Gawddawggonnit

April/May/June.

34.7 cpl + vat for 3.2pr and 3.8 bf.
2.5cpl being put away for redistribution in lower supply months.

Doesn’t include 1.7cpl for gmo free.

Mortelaro

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

Great positivity as usual Jay

Glanbias fixed price for liquid for 3 years
3 years!!!! Is just 31c
That's a fixed base price of 24cpl in winter
Loss making with a capital L but a 40 or 50 million saving for Glanbia Ireland
That would be many millions to shore up the plc
Youd have to say if thsts the strategy going forward,well done Coop board,protecting the plc is important..
Protecting the farmer isnt...

straight

memorystick wrote: »

Welcome to beef farming lads.

I wish I had the workload of a beef farmer.

GrasstoMilk

Mortelaro wrote: »

Glanbias fixed price for liquid for 3 years
3 years!!!! Is just 31c
That's a fixed base price of 24cpl in winter
Loss making with a capital L but a 40 or 50 million saving for Glanbia Ireland
That would be many millions to shore up the plc
Youd have to say if thsts the strategy going forward,well done Coop board,protecting the plc is important..
Protecting the farmer isnt...

Is bonus not on top of that? Is that a new one for them.tonhabe fixed milk for winter? It wasnt there when we supplied winter. Happy we got out now

Mortelaro

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

Is bonus not on top of that? Is that a new one for them.tonhabe fixed milk for winter? It wasnt there when we supplied winter. Happy we got out now

Solids are on top
That is the liquid price INCLUDING the 7c liquid winter bonus (0.5c in summer)
But as you know,you'd have solids anyway

So in order for it to be better than base
Base has to be less than 24c for 3 years

mahoney_j

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

The market hasnt been great for the last 6 weeks or more. China is starting to open up again after shutting up its ports completely, they'll need to rebuild those stocks they've used to feed there population. Its not going to be a great year for milk but it might t be as bad as 24/25c

Hooefully your right whatever about China comming back on stream ,shipping lanes,storage containers transport are going to be major issues across the world for the forseable .our production model and position in the world as an exporter of the vast majority of our products is a major worry no idea where price will end up but you’d have to bet mid 20s at least as no one knows when normality of any sort will return ,it’ll be months not weeks

whelan2

Mortelaro wrote: »

Solids are on top
That is the liquid price INCLUDING the 7c liquid winter bonus (0.5c in summer)
But as you know,you'd have solids anyway

So in order for it to be better than base
Base has to be less than 24c for 3 years

And lads falling over themselves to sign up. Who dreams up these schemes?

mf240

Mortelaro wrote: »

Glanbias fixed price for liquid for 3 years
3 years!!!! Is just 31c
That's a fixed base price of 24cpl in winter
Loss making with a capital L but a 40 or 50 million saving for Glanbia Ireland
That would be many millions to shore up the plc
Youd have to say if thsts the strategy going forward,well done Coop board,protecting the plc is important..
Protecting the farmer isnt...

Never waste a crisis, business 101

Buford T. Justice XIX

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

The market hasnt been great for the last 6 weeks or more. China is starting to open up again after shutting up its ports completely, they'll need to rebuild those stocks they've used to feed there population. Its not going to be a great year for milk but it might t be as bad as 24/25c

One of the things that made it relatively cheap to export to China is the containers coming back empty from dropping of huge amounts of goods exported from China.

Like j said above, the whole worlds trade flows are almost dead atm and very little shipping out of China due to no demand and, before the end of this year, little money to buy the goods that China exports.

There's a whole new world opening up and some of it isn't going to favour us.

cosatron

To be honest, I dont care what price milk is going to bottom out at once they take my milk. Watching the lads in the u.s dumping milk is heartbreaking stuff

Gawddawggonnit

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

One of the things that made it relatively cheap to export to China is the containers coming back empty from dropping of huge amounts of goods exported from China.

Like j said above, the whole worlds trade flows are almost dead atm and very little shipping out of China due to no demand and, before the end of this year, little money to buy the goods that China exports.

There's a whole new world opening up and some of it isn't going to favour us.

Soya demand from China has pushed prices by €45/t and rising.
Wheat and barley are rising.

Often in recessionary times agri commodities are seen as a safe haven for investors...here’s hoping.

My concern is that the world is going to plunge into the mother of all recessions. Once it doesn’t become a depression we’ll be fine.

memorystick

straight wrote: »

I wish I had the workload of a beef farmer.

Haha

Buford T. Justice XIX

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Soya demand from China has pushed prices by €45/t and rising.
Wheat and barley are rising.

Often in recessionary times agri commodities are seen as a safe haven for investors...here’s hoping.

My concern is that the world is going to plunge into the mother of all recessions. Once it doesn’t become a depression we’ll be fine.

It's hard not to see a depression coming down the tracks, Dawg. Near zero being produced anywhere and governments spending big while revenues are falling from the sky and government borrowings going to be huge by the end of the year.

Little fiscal room from the EU, US or China to stimulate demand so it's going to have to came mostly from consumer and business demand and they will be taxed to pay the bill for this outbreak so little room left to grow.

I think I'd be very happy with a recession:o

kevthegaff

The chinese are pushing consumption of 300mls of milk a day for immunity, might help the situation. Germany opening borders for cheap labour today, if all countries do this should avert a food shortage but might not help contain the virus! Troubling times ahead whatever way u want to look at it

RightTurnClyde

Naa, not seeing a recession this time for many reasons. Interest rates at 0. All major economies are printing or are ready to print. Loads of room. Banks are actually in a good state. Central banks now have a chance to shake off the cobwebs and low inflation of the last 10 yrs. We already see the ECB overriding Germany and Holland to print and raise inflation. Politics, the right leaning govs will want to put the lefties to bed once and for all and end any austerity left over from 2008. Governments have the lessons of history on their side. Austerity after a war doesn't work. This war hasn't had loads of money spent on artillery, it's being spent on keeping people in their houses.
I think you'll see MAJOR inflation over the next 2 years. Good time to owe money bad time to have cash. Remember all this could end literally over night. Once one boffin cracks the code it's over. Already there is some talk that the BCG vaccine is helping immunity. Something like that and it's over.
I

Buford T. Justice XIX

kevthegaff wrote: »

The chinese are pushing consumption of 300mls of milk a day for immunity, might help the situation. Germany opening borders for cheap labour today, if all countries do this should avert a food shortage but might not help contain the virus! Troubling times ahead whatever way u want to look at it

600ml to be sure to be sure:pac:

mf240

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

600ml to be sure to be sure:pac:

You'll only scour them,

visatorro

RightTurnClyde wrote:

Naa, not seeing a recession this time for many reasons. Interest rates at 0. All major economies are printing or are ready to print. Loads of room. Banks are actually in a good state. Central banks now have a chance to shake off the cobwebs and low inflation of the last 10 yrs. We already see the ECB overriding Germany and Holland to print and raise inflation. Politics, the right leaning govs will want to put the lefties to bed once and for all and end any austerity left over from 2008. Governments have the lessons of history on their side. Austerity after a war doesn't work. This war hasn't had loads of money spent on artillery, it's being spent on keeping people in their houses. I think you'll see MAJOR inflation over the next 2 years. Good time to owe money bad time to have cash. Remember all this could end literally over night. Once one boffin cracks the code it's over. Already there is some talk that the BCG vaccine is helping immunity. Something like that and it's over. I

I admire your optimism. Was listening to an economist recently who remarked that it was the US that dragged the world economy out of the last recession. This time the US economy is under serious pressure aswell. Austerity can be disguised as other less painful words.

If I was brave id email bank manager and ask for a couple of thousand per cow and go mad but I'm a windy bastard!

I don't know how glanbia will treat their suppliers either. They held back on a few cents before xmas ,will they support price now? Iv my doubts.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Up 1.2%, surprisingly.

Mooooo

Some parts of nz are drying early due to drought as rain came too late.

alps

Confidence with China's return to the dairy market..

Buford T. Justice XIX

alps wrote: »

Confidence with China's return to the dairy market..

Any idea what they bought?