Milk Price III

straight

Grueller wrote: »

I am not disagreeing with the above post at all. Any type of farming, or business for that matter is tight margins.
However, a couple of points.
What is the minimum reinvestment. I have one neighbour that believes it means keeping the tractor under 5 years old, fresh jeep, all bells and whistles on the parlour etc. Another neighbour thinks it means a new brush handle to prop the roof of the cab of his ford 5000.
Another thing is the hours worked thing. My wife will come home this evening believing that I was busy all day, but the reality is that the kids got two hoverboard for their birthdays and the three of us have spent an hour racing on them, another half an hour hurling and another 45 minutes training a new sheep pup to sit and heel. When I am in the off farm job I would have condensed what it has taken six hours this morning to do into 3. Now next week I will be at silage again, weather permitting so and 80 hour week beckons, so maybe scratch that point.

I plan to put back in 10% of total income to keep things right. Hours worked is a funny one and every bodies different. I do slow the pace myself when possible but I don't feel guilty about spending an hour drinking tea or playing with kids. When I was working I got paid for all my breaks and they were generally an hour long. When my wife comes home from work I have 5 more hours work to do and she is still in bed when I get up in the morning. She is well paid with pension, holidays, weekends, etc.

Mortelaro

Minimum investment in my opinion is probably repair and maintenance of buildings ,occasional reseeding,keeping machinery/tractors serviced and everything working properly/safely such that you keep the business going

Its definitely not buying tractors,jeeps Quads,building new sheds or purchasing milking cows that increase the herd beyond its normal size

Buford T. Justice XIX

Forward Price Scheme 15 open Online next Tue 30 June at 2pm. Indicative price 30cpl to 30.5cpl (MAR - OCT 2021) @ 3.30 Prot/3.60 Bfat incl VAT

Kerry's latest fixed price offer would seem to indicate a price rise is imminent seeing as the current base price is 29.5c/l.

Gawddawggonnit

Milk price to rise.

Coop emailed saying that their collection is down 2.75% from 2019 and the French production is down overall. Butter, cheese etc is up on price.

I’m not complaining.

Gawddawggonnit

Milk price has risen 2cpl + vat for July deliveries and retrospectively for milk delivered after 11th June. No decision on August price yet

No complaints.

alps

Waiting for the Sherrif with the good news...

Buford T. Justice XIX

Good news indeed!

boggerman1

Buford T. Justice XIX wrote: »

Good news indeed!

No doubt the board of glanbia are working out how to hold/cut the base price for June as a result of the rise in the gdt.

Mortelaro

That's quite a remarkable rise given the large quantities moving at the moment
If Processors hold price given that,they are blatantly price gouging or incompetent

whelan2

I wonder if there had been no covid outbreak what would we be at?

kevthegaff

whelan2 wrote: »

I wonder if there had been no covid outbreak what would we be at?

We have the next excuse, brexit

mahoney_j

whelan2 wrote: »

I wonder if there had been no covid outbreak what would we be at?

Every sign in janurary was pointing at 34/35 by May ,we may still get there or v clues over next few months if there is no more major lockdowns

Siamsa Sessions

mahoney_j wrote: »

Every sign in janurary was pointing at 34/35 by May ,we may still get there or v clues over next few months if there is no more major lockdowns

That would finish beef, lamb, tillage, and every other farm enterprise in the country as we'd all convert to dairy in the morning!

(I'm looking into it at the moment, using 27-28c for stress-test calculations)

mahoney_j

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

That would finish beef, lamb, tillage, and every other farm enterprise in the country as we'd all convert to dairy in the morning!

(I'm looking into it at the moment, using 27-28c for stress-test calculations)

That’s wise there will be peaks and troughs but average base for last 5 years is somewhere around 30.5 to 31 .

Wildsurfer

mahoney_j wrote: »

Every sign in janurary was pointing at 34/35 by May ,we may still get there or v clues over next few months if there is no more major lockdowns

Given all that's happened in last few months it's amazing price didn't take more of a hammering and is recovering so quickly. How did demand stay up with the world in lockdown I cant figure it out.

Timmaay

The milk price hit the 40s in 2008, and plenty of lads borrowed hugely as a result (and I'll admit straight up its part the reason I came home to farm, the $$ signs were ringing in my eyes lol), but only for it to crash back down to 21c during the 2009 recession. We've seen alot less variation in price the last 3 or 4yrs, which is no harm to reduce the boom bust nature, however we didn't every single farmer in the country switching across then. The only question I'd have is how much of this is artificial by the processors not passing on returns to farmers when the markets would of justified 35c+?

Timmaay

Wildsurfer wrote: »

Given all that's happened in last few months it's amazing price didn't take more of a hammering and is recovering so quickly. How did demand stay up with the world in lockdown I cant figure it out.

In fairness the world still needs to eat, the only drop in demand was with the tourism end of things, but that was probably offset by more domestic consumption. Contrast that to like oil, which has literally tanked due to it being so heavily dependent on transport and the manufacturer of goods, alongside the opec+ mess.

And you could say the very same thing about the stock markets, why the hell have they recovered so quickly given everything that's happened, just no logic there other than central banks printing money.

mahoney_j

Wildsurfer wrote: »

Given all that's happened in last few months it's amazing price didn't take more of a hammering and is recovering so quickly. How did demand stay up with the world in lockdown I cant figure it out.

It fell here more than on most of rest of Europe ,bit of panic maby on Irish coops behalf ......saying that knife edge stuff I’ll fully expect price rises over next few months but equally if a big second wave comes with covid it’ll finish lots of business and that will have a knock on effect

whelan2

Any idea for June milk price?

cosatron

whelan2 wrote: »

Any idea for June milk price?

according to the comic we are in for 1 cent increase, considering we are trailing france by 5 cents and holland by 3 cents, a load of sh*t

Wildsurfer

whelan2 wrote: »

Any idea for June milk price?

I would guess a 1 cent rise for all

mahoney_j

Wildsurfer wrote: »

I would guess a 1 cent rise for all

But the dunces down the bottom glanbia /Arrabawn should be betting 2

straight

mahoney_j wrote: »

But the dunces down the bottom glanbia /Arrabawn should be betting 2

No need sure. Plenty willing to keep expanding and can't supply enough milk to them.

Siamsa Sessions

Is part of the issue Glanbia's size and reach now? As in they set the tone/price for the rest of the co-ops?

Are they the Ryanair of co-ops?

atlantic mist

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

Is part of the issue Glanbia's size and reach now? As in they set the tone/price for the rest of the co-ops?

Are they the Ryanair of co-ops?

the size and reach is one of the advantages of supplying glanbia, however they sell at some of the lowest prices internationally to avoid building stocks..which is one problem and they are a customer champion as they say in there accounts not a supplier champion, yes id say they play a big influence on the rest of the coops milk price as they are competing against glanbia selling price

alps

whelan2 wrote: »

Any idea for June milk price?

8% GDP rise equates to 2.3c/l for us.

Looking forward to it🤔

Wildsurfer

alps wrote: »

8% GDP rise equates to 2.3c/l for us.

Looking forward to it🀔

If it was an 8% drop in Gdt you could nearly guarantee that drop in price though!

whelan2

Lakelands up to 30cpl

Gary kk

I assume anyone with glanbia is refreshing the connect app every five mins.

Mortelaro

For June milk Glanbia will pay Members 30.1 cpl incl VAT and Share of GI Profit, an increase of 1.48cpl on May. Read more: https://bit.ly/2C5Rfl6