Milk Price III

Siamsa Sessions

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

And teagasc forecasting a 7% drop in milk price next year

They have no skin in the game so their weekly the-sky-is-falling-in predictions should be given zero credibility.

Until their client subscriptions are tied to milk price, it’d be better if they left their spreadsheets closed

awaywithyou

mahoney_j wrote: »

0.5 to 1 cent fully warranted to every coop bar west cork possibly gdt up ornua index up and in general things looking positive on world markets even with covid and brexit in the background .coop boards snd management are getting away with blue murder this year no meetings bar Microsoft teams or zoom which ain’t worth a ****e if your trying to raise a gallop .....and then there’s the knife been twisted again by tegasc with there 7% predicted price drop next year ...

How much were Teagasc paid by the cartel to come out with that gem of a prediction.., what in the name of god was the point of it....

alps

awaywithyou wrote: »

Teagasc is full of people with chips on their shoulders against Farmers....

Can I disagree with you....completely...

And plenty of them right good operators on their own farms..

awaywithyou

alps wrote: »

Can I disagree with you....completely...

And plenty of them right good operators on their own farms..

fair enough lad... ill take it back

however my comment in relation to them predicting a drop in milk price when there is absolutely no evidence to suggest it happening was disappointing.. (if anything price looks like it will increase rather than decrease) why did they come out and make that statement at all???

alps

awaywithyou wrote: »

fair enough lad... ill take it back

however my comment in relation to them predicting a drop in milk price when there is absolutely no evidence to suggest it happening was disappointing.. (if anything price looks like it will increase rather than decrease) why did they come out and make that statement at all???

Ill Agree with you there...

whelan2

awaywithyou wrote: »

fair enough lad... ill take it back

however my comment in relation to them predicting a drop in milk price when there is absolutely no evidence to suggest it happening was disappointing.. (if anything price looks like it will increase rather than decrease) why did they come out and make that statement at all???

It's a bit like something glanbia would say...

Tonynewholland

awaywithyou wrote: »

fair enough lad... ill take it back

however my comment in relation to them predicting a drop in milk price when there is absolutely no evidence to suggest it happening was disappointing.. (if anything price looks like it will increase rather than decrease) why did they come out and make that statement at all???

Maybe I’m wrong but wasn’t that if there was a no deal brexit.

Gawddawggonnit

I wonder would Teagasc give me a job?





Seems I’ve the right credentials...

awaywithyou

whelan2 wrote: »

It's a bit like something glanbia would say...

predicting milk price is not Teagasc job.. there instructors that are supposed to provide advice to farmers with their business and not cut the ground from under them with stupid statements about milk price.. they might leave that to FC Stone International etc..

Siamsa Sessions

If it adds anything useful: I spoke to 2 different banks last week about a loan to put up a parlour and both are using 30c as a base price for calculations.

Whether it’s right or wrong, their view of the world has a bigger impact than Teagasc’s theoretical opinions and possible scenarios.

trixi2011

The reality is that if there is a no deal bexit and tariffs in place there is no doubt about it Irish milk price is going to decline . UK is a huge market for cheddar cheese which is on of the main stay products made by Irish coops . There are not many outlets for this cheese if the UK stop importing

blackdog1

trixi2011 wrote: »

The reality is that if there is a no deal bexit and tariffs in place there is no doubt about it Irish milk price is going to decline . UK is a huge market for cheddar cheese which is on of the main stay products made by Irish coops . There are not many outlets for this cheese if the UK stop importing

Also the question should be asked are the English going to stop eating cheddar? No are other countries outside the eu going to sell it to them?? If so their transport costs would probably be more than the tariffs.

Irish coops have 6 months of products stored in the UK and that storage cost must be b seriously effecting price atm I would say too. So likelihood is we won't be hit hard if a no deal happens but at the same time if we get a deal they probably won't pay us market value for 4-6 months until those stocks are cleared.

straight

trixi2011 wrote: »

The reality is that if there is a no deal bexit and tariffs in place there is no doubt about it Irish milk price is going to decline . UK is a huge market for cheddar cheese which is on of the main stay products made by Irish coops . There are not many outlets for this cheese if the UK stop importing

Let them do without it then. On the banks, I'd say they're always using the 30 cent as a kind of long term average. Banker told me before if they dropped it any lower sure they'd lend feck all.

alps

trixi2011 wrote: »

The reality is that if there is a no deal bexit and tariffs in place there is no doubt about it Irish milk price is going to decline . UK is a huge market for cheddar cheese which is on of the main stay products made by Irish coops . There are not many outlets for this cheese if the UK stop importing

It's only the mainstay of some coops. We have coops who dont produce any cheese. We have coops with very little export to UK.

I can never understand how coops with wildly different portfolios still end up paying the same price for milk.

This will be interesting if tariffs do come into play. Will.the coops putting their produce through Ornua to different markets, still.end up.payingbyhe same..

Mooooo

alps wrote: »

It's only the mainstay of some coops. We have coops who dont produce any cheese. We have coops with very little export to UK.

I can never understand how coops with wildly different portfolios still end up paying the same price for milk.

This will be interesting if tariffs do come into play. Will.the coops putting their produce through Ornua to different markets, still.end up.payingbyhe same..

Small coop that produced a lot of cheddar then pays the best price....

Gawddawggonnit

Got a text from the Coop saying that in the event of a no deal Brexit there could be some price volatility because the UK is an important market for French cheese...expect price drops from 3-5%.

straight

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Got a text from the Coop saying that in the event of a no deal Brexit there could be some price volatility because the UK is an important market for French cheese...expect price drops from 3-5%.

Sure you have loads of land to sell if things get very bad.

Tonynewholland

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Got a text from the Coop saying that in the event of a no deal Brexit there could be some price volatility because the UK is an important market for French cheese...expect price drops from 3-5%.

I wouldn’t be putting my house on a deal being agreed this week

straight

Tonynewholland wrote: »

I wouldn’t be putting my house on a deal being agreed this week

Boris is going for a walk with Ursula. They'll pull it out of the bag alright as there's so much at stake.

Gawddawggonnit

straight wrote: »

Sure you have loads of land to sell if things get very bad.

Won’t have to...calf prices will make up any shortfall!!

Gawddawggonnit

Tonynewholland wrote: »

I wouldn’t be putting my house on a deal being agreed this week

It’s going down to the wire alright.

Siamsa Sessions

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

It’s going down to the wire alright.

All political negotiations have to. It’d look like one side conceded too much if things didn’t go to the 13th hour.

Tonynewholland

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

All political negotiations have to. It’d look like one side conceded too much if things didn’t go to the 13th hour.

I don’t think the rest of the European countries would be to bothered if there’s no deal at this point

Siamsa Sessions

Tonynewholland wrote: »

I don’t think the rest of the European countries would be to bothered if there’s no deal at this point

100% agree. I used to have to travel around Europe a bit for the off-farm job (pre-covid) and Brexit is not on the agenda for most people.

It's different for Ireland since we export so much there, but I'm guessing most Europeans have more to be doing than wondering what Boris and co are up to. Or why it isn't sorted already

straight

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

100% agree. I used to have to travel around Europe a bit for the off-farm job (pre-covid) and Brexit is not on the agenda for most people.

It's different for Ireland since we export so much there, but I'm guessing most Europeans have more to be doing than wondering what Boris and co are up to. Or why it isn't sorted already

I'd say most want it over one way or the other at this stage. I've about 10 cull cows to sell in January. I hope there won't be disruption.

Wildsurfer

straight wrote: »

I'd say most want it over one way or the other at this stage. I've about 10 cull cows to sell in January. I hope there won't be disruption.

With fear of no deal and a further lock down looming in January would you do as well to move them on now?

Tonynewholland

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

100% agree. I used to have to travel around Europe a bit for the off-farm job (pre-covid) and Brexit is not on the agenda for most people.

It's different for Ireland since we export so much there, but I'm guessing most Europeans have more to be doing than wondering what Boris and co are up to. Or why it isn't sorted already

From a European viewpoint any deal with the uk will probably lead to continuous problems as the uk will never play straight

straight

Wildsurfer wrote: »

With fear of no deal and a further lock down looming in January would you do as well to move them on now?

That was the plan but I'm drying them off these days. Hate sending to the mart with a big udder and get 300 euro. I doubt I'll lose/gain much either way. If they soak up well I might get rid of a few before xmas yet. They're going fairly ok in the mart compared to last year. The price doubled last year in January when the supply tightened and they had a bit of flesh. I know january 2021 is a different story.

older by the day

That could do as a new thread. Sell now or hope for the best in spring. I have culls and a few Angus 20 month old cattle. All rations have gone up 10 Euro a ton around west cork this week. And we all Delight in 2 cent rises

Castlekeeper

straight wrote: »

Boris is going for a walk with Ursula. They'll pull it out of the bag alright as there's so much at stake.

I don't think so, Boris has a lot to lose within his own party by striking a deal, the big money is in a no deal for his peers.