Milk Price III

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120581910#Comment_120581910

In fairness for every pissed of dairy farmer that reads it, you have probably 3 beef/tillage farmers agreeing with him, it's a garbage article with his stated facts that most dairy farms will still make a 10 cent a litre profit this year apparently he forgot to add this figure is before capital and wages are taken, he's probably working of a 40 cent base price to when low to mid 30's is on the cards...

Best thing longterm that probably needs to happen is a well funded dairy reduction scheme is announced in September, and theirs a good uptake of it, will put the s**ts up co-op management especially tirlin their new cheese plant isn't really worth a toss to them without milk, can see them becoming a australian version of what happened with Murray Goldburn

Fine Day

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120581409#Comment_120581409

Don't be daft. You will never get out of farming. It's the only industry in the world that the powers at be know they can treat there suppliers like **** and yet the supplier will keep supplying the goods day after day & year after year. It goes for every type of farming practices. Throw in a good year of prices every now and again and we are happy so we can go mad spending to develop our farms etc. No other industry in the world would survive like it yet alone continue developing like farming does and put up with all the red tape crap. All our representatives (IFA to name but many few) are minting it out of us and promising us the sun moon and stars. They all pay big wages to themselves. Money for the boys. As Sean Quinn said in his documentary earlier this year on RTE ' Farmers live poor and die rich'

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120581874#Comment_120581874

The indo farming section has gotten very poor the last couple of years I think.

cute geoge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120583551#Comment_120583551

All he is missing is winkers!!

what a donkey

Castlekeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120583551#Comment_120583551

Thanks, he's some plonker alright. He had the making's of a little dig at the farm organisations until he got at his majic money tree calculator.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120582306#Comment_120582306

But how wrong is he. When you start to add in Capital and wages you are in a business scenario. How much wages and capital should we figure into a family farm. 30-50k in wages, 750k++ in borrowings or maybe 100 k+wages and a million+in borrowings.

We have a situation now that neither tillage, veg or beef can afford to rent land. On one hand last year an average dairy cow turned over 3.5-4k, on the strength of that dairy farmers in strong dairy areas drove land leasing to 600+/HA......or sorry that should be per acre and to 20-30k/acre if you wanted to buy.

This changed prices all over the country. Now forestry is supposed to be the base @7k/ acre for rushy land. Tillage is talking about a 30% drop in output.

Welcome to the real world where processors and retailers dictate price to the producer I taught it only happened in beef. Why do you want a dairy reduction scheme. The suckler scheme was shot down fast. WTF should tax payers money be targeted to a dairy reduction scheme when the market will do it anyway. Well this was the argument against a suckler reduction scheme.

Mind you @jaymla627 were you not a big advocate of calf slaughter. Is this the sudden interest in a reduction scheme. Maybe I have the wrong poster

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120585992#Comment_120585992

Borrowings as you outlined is why a dairy reduction scheme is needed, if a 200 cow farmer who expanded from 100 to this number for arguments-sake has loans of 300k outstanding, a reduction scheme of say 3500 a cow for 5 years would allow the above example to drop back to 100 cows and get of the treadmill so to speak, without financially damaging the operation, it should have the effect of damping land rental prices as dairy farmers drop cow numbers instead of coughing up extortionate land rents

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586090#Comment_120586090

You have to be joking, some dairy farmers have got themselves into this mess, let them wallow in it now.

Land rents aren't extortionate compared with the profit available in dairying.

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586090#Comment_120586090

Who pays for such a scheme? The coops?

You're having a laugh if you think the taxpayer should be footing the bill for something like that. Let them go bankrupt to f**k. They were the fools who took on these big commitments, so only they should pay the price.

newholland mad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586090#Comment_120586090

I suppose a good singer always starts on a high note but by god you're being generous with 3.5 k per cow per year, what figure was muted for the suckler scrappage, iirc 1k

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586192#Comment_120586192

3.5k total, not per year, muted figure was circa 2k total over 5 years from the dairy group recommendations

mahoney_j

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586135#Comment_120586135

Fair point and in cases I’d fully agree ….but never nice to wish or see anyone in trouble

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586374#Comment_120586374

Sure I thought jaymla was having a laugh, I often made mistakes and had to dig myself outa trouble myself.

Those reduction proposals in europe are based on taking land out of production for ever, rewilding

Jack98

Next year will be the beginning of the end for many dairy farms across the country so there will be never any need for a reduction/retirement scheme. When the nitrates go to 220/ha this will reduce stocking rates by 12% on farms across the country in derogation which a substantial amount of dairy farms would be now. Smaller farmers will not be able to compete in land rental market and their operations will be unviable for the future generations.

Thus leading to bigger operations hoovering up more land. There will be no reduction in dairy cow numbers just a reduction in farmer numbers.

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586441#Comment_120586441

Is this what kinda happened in The Netherlands?

(which doesn't look like it'll end well)

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586415#Comment_120586415

Never got bailed out here either so I generally try to play it safe.

It's hard to have sympathy for some of these dairy hero's that are trying to take over the parish but they are a tiny minority of dairy farmers. We're always hearing about the big farmers up the country and how great they are with their massive stocking rates and short winters.

BUT 25% of the cows in Ireland are in cork and you don't hear as much win win sh1t out of them because the majority are just family farms getting on with their business.

Am in expansion mode myself but I won't be going over a cow to the acre and I won't be renting any land either. If I can't make a living out of 90ish cows I'll gladly go back to the job.

Jack98

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586487#Comment_120586487

Pretty much, hard to see it not happening here tbh. Look at the demographics of farmers many will be too tired to put up a fight and with no generational renewal it will inevitably happen.

We do not have a culture of protesting like countries on the continent and when we do we rarely benefit from it due to poor planning and lack of cohesion.

mf240

Last years super prices were an oppotunity to reduce borrowings and get ready for the downturn. Instead of losing your **** and giving 5 or 6 hundred an acre for extra land.

Mooooo

Main issue is the uncertainty of it all, this or that may or may not happen and lads are trying to do what they can so they can protect themselves as best as possible.

Everyone has their own reasons for growing or not growing and they'll work out or they won't but don't see the need to be calling lads greedy or foolish or whatever. As usual farming seems to be the worst sector for trying to talk lads down from actually growing a business.

Everyone I know who has expanded has done so primarily because they have had successors who want to farm or to get to a scale to be able to employ someone as they have no help at home or actually have an income capable of putting kids thru college, raise families etc where farm is the only or main source of income. God forbid someone would want to try and make a living from their job or even maximise their income potential

mf240

Will you make any extra out of land at 5 or 6 hundred and acre though. If you can then fair play. Take every bit you can get.

ginger22

The media, advisors, dairy processors are all talking about prices picking up later in the year, expecting China to come back into the market. But I wouldnt be so optimistic. It seems that since the Chinese manufacturing machine is faltering, exports way down the Chinese government are adopting a policy where they plan to be self sufficient in food production. The laid off factory workers are being sent back to the rural areas to bring unproductive land, wooded areas, back into grain growing, even terracing hillsides that were never farmed. Large factory type dairy farms and pig and poultry unit being set up.

alps

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586441#Comment_120586441

Nitrates wont go to 220..

alps

And before you ask why not....you've explained yourself why not. No reduction in cow numbers, just farmers.

Jack98

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586838#Comment_120586838

It is to reduce amount of livestock regardless of how many farmers there is livestock numbers have to reduce according to europe so it will most definitely be at 220 next year

GrasstoMilk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586874#Comment_120586874

It’ll decimate the land market if it does. We’ve got a taste of that this year just with the threat of it going to 220 and the cow figure changing

imagine the whinging siobhan Walsh and the tillage farmers will do then. Tillage farmers were always winning back in the day with the high payments and dairy farmers bound by quotas

Jack98

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586940#Comment_120586940

The average farmer is derogation needed an additional 3% of their current land block this year when cow excretion when from 89kg to 92kg.

The land market will be mental next spring when you four fold the demand for land compared to this spring if it goes to 220.

Irregardless of how this year pans out as long as their is a strong demand land prices will remain high unfortunately even if it doesn’t make total financial sense.

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120586874#Comment_120586874

Teagasc have totally accepted it as certain that derogation is going to be reduced to 220 next year. Madness for anyone to be banking on 250

Jack98

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120587065#Comment_120587065

I agree with you straight, and on your previous point re renting additional land. We would need to take on an additional 20 acres next year to stand still and where land prices will be at it makes a lot more sense to reduce additional livestock to Milkers and not go paying 300+ for land.

Gawddawggonnit

I’m allowed 120kg organicN/ha and 55kg/ha of artificial N.

Hasn’t been a problem so far…in fact the last 2yrs I haven’t even used up my artificial N allowance.

whelan2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120587315#Comment_120587315

What milk price are you on atm?