Milk Price III

Fixture

K.G. wrote: »

Simple way to do it,divide the check by the litres

I think the question was how to do it before you get the cheque...

Injuryprone

Timmaay wrote: »

OK, take the glanbia price of 31c, that works out at 6.65e/kg of protein, and 2.89e/kg bf. In the below formula take A as your protein and B as your fat (both in %)


((((A x 6.65) + (B x 2.89))x1.035) - 4) x 1.054

In the above 1.035 is the density of milk, and 5.4 the vat rate.

I've fired this all into a spreadsheet (while I sit here wasting my morning at the mart ha), in this example I've put in my March figures of protein at 3.6, and bf at 4.2, and got out an expected price of 35.2c/L.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong with any of the above, I already see a small Rounding mistake of some sort, the base price should be working out bang on 31c, not the 31.1c ha.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/196m044UJNmn-BQk7jgnYaVG2_7U2ZdI1a9JW5kQLATE/edit?usp=drivesdk

Hate to be the pedantic pat but it's actually 665 e/kg of protein and 289 e/kg of bfat.

What i never could figure out is how they come up with those 2 figures. For example, for a basic price of 31c, Dairygold pays 639 e/kg protein and 315 e/kg bfat

Timmaay

Injuryprone wrote: »

Hate to be the pedantic pat but it's actually 665 e/kg of protein and 289 e/kg of bfat.

What i never could figure out is how they come up with those 2 figures. For example, for a basic price of 31c, Dairygold pays 639 e/kg protein and 315 e/kg bfat

Yeh your right, I got lazy and left it as 6.65 and 2.89 because it conveniently cancelled out the divide by 100 in the protein and fat percents ha.

On how it's calculated, Glanbia have a fixed pr to bf price ratio of 2.3, we already have one formula of milk price = a+b-c (were c is always 4c/l), using the ratio above, our 2nd formula is a/b =2.3. When glanbia decide it will set a milk price of 31c, all they need to do is put that into the 1st formula, and then solve for a and b using the 2 formulas above.

And of course, the price of 31c is actually with the vat refund amount included, Glanbia only have to cough up 29.3c for each litre, the tax man gives us the other 1.7c, it sounds much better from Glanbias front that we are being paid 31c and not 29.3c though ha.

Wildsurfer

Tims formula isn't working out correctly for me when I tested it on my figures for Jan milk, Dairygold supplier so wondering is it because of assurance bonus? I adjusted protein and Fat figures to 639 and 315. If anyone wants to do out an example that would be handy. Should know this stuff glad the topic was raised

Farmer Ed

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/irish-milk-production-continues-to-fall-in-2017/

After the expected increase as quotas were removed, is the mad rush to expand over? Dairy farmers are getting older and I'm not sure there is enough young people interested in this way of life? Was harvest 2020 just a wet dream? Or are the plans for 2025 just simply a disillusion ?

freedominacup

Farmer Ed wrote: »

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/irish-milk-production-continues-to-fall-in-2017/

After the expected increase as quotas were removed, is the mad rush to expand over? Dairy farmers are getting older and I'm not sure there is enough young people interested in this way of life? Was harvest 2020 just a wet dream? Or are the plans for 2025 just simply a disillusion ?

Glanbia are getting plenty of enquiries from prospective new entrants according to what I was told during the week. At least one new entrant in my locality next spring. Maidens bought. Short term plan to milk 200.

mahoney_j

Farmer Ed wrote: »

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/irish-milk-production-continues-to-fall-in-2017/

After the expected increase as quotas were removed, is the mad rush to expand over? Dairy farmers are getting older and I'm not sure there is enough young people interested in this way of life? Was harvest 2020 just a wet dream? Or are the plans for 2025 just simply a disillusion ?

Nothing story really as a lot are not starting to calve now till early Feb ,I'm betting March figures will be up ,milk man telling me yesterday milk starting to pour in now

leg wax

same here , moo juice express driver only saying this morn ,loads up ,driver down ,

whelan2

Seems to be a few getting out too.

mahoney_j

whelan2 wrote: »

Seems to be a few getting out too.

Big dairy area around here ,no new entrants in my locality but everyone increasing nos and output by 20/50% .land for rent scarce and making fancy money

rangler1

mahoney_j wrote: »

Big dairy area around here ,no new entrants in my locality but everyone increasing nos and output by 20/50% .land for rent scarce and making fancy money

Three dairy farmers looking to rent the rest of my farm already.:D

kevthegaff

mahoney_j wrote:

Nothing story really as a lot are not starting to calve now till early Feb ,I'm betting March figures will be up ,milk man telling me yesterday milk starting to pour in now

Was the only new entrant 10 yrs ago for processor, serious prices being paid, not sure is it sustainable

yewtree

Apparently the targets for 2020 will be easily meet, more dairy cows on the ground than expected. Even this year with such a poor price last year dairy calving are increasing.
Not in a huge dairying area but there seems to be a steady stream of new entrants. A lot of lads seem to be driving on aswell. In our DG a lot of lads will have doubled productionfrom 5 years ago

Timmaay

Farmer Ed wrote: »

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/irish-milk-production-continues-to-fall-in-2017/

After the expected increase as quotas were removed, is the mad rush to expand over? Dairy farmers are getting older and I'm not sure there is enough young people interested in this way of life? Was harvest 2020 just a wet dream? Or are the plans for 2025 just simply a disillusion ?

The harvest 2020 target will probably be hit in 2018. As mj and free said plenty of smaller lads getting out, but that is well made back by either 200cow greenfields or existing 100cow lads bumping up output by 50%.

The 2025 targets are a hell of a lot bigger a lottery in my view, from a technical ability point of view we would have no problems hitting them, even despite fragmentation in Ireland, there still are loads of decent 200ac blocks that could potentially milk 250cows etc, tillage ground and dry stock farmers converting over. I can't see any real positivity in the price of grain, or the suckler herd moving forward, so we'll continue to see greenfield milking platforms, contractor rearing, and tillage lads growing winter fodder for dairyfarmers. However the much much bigger hurdle in my view will be the likes of nitrates, and derogation, and likes of climate change obligations, all of these are proving to be hurdles in other eu counties, and there is no reason Ireland is going to get a free pass to drive on ahead.

And of course the average price of milk paid will hugely dictate expansion moving forward also!

Mooooo

It's labour will be the limiting factor. Tslk8ng to a few lads recently and plant hire crowds and local builders taking in lads again. 2 lads I know gone from farm work to building again

Buford T. Justice XIX

kevthegaff wrote: »

Was the only new entrant 10 yrs ago for processor, serious prices being paid, not sure is it sustainable

Yeah, land prices are going to limit expansion unless lads are willing to rent a long distance away from intensive dairy areas or go into contract rearing. And even then they would probably need large blocks of ground 30-40 acres+ with wintering facilities as you couldn't be bringing silage long distances and slurry back.

Some sort of collaborative farming will have to be done here if we want to have any hope of survival in our current structures.

Farmer Ed

Fair enough some herds will get very large. Some will even make a go of it. But some would seem to be doing stuff that is hard to see being sustainable long term. That coupled with the amount of grey heads at any farmers gathering you care to attend. Even if the heart is willing as people get older the flesh will become weaker. A 7% drop in February just two years away from quotas could well mean that a lot of the expansion has already happened. Sure there will always be exception's ,but the first year after quota removal was always going to see the biggest rate of increase. Was that level of increase ever likely to be sustained ?

Farmer Ed

Mooooo wrote: »

It's labour will be the limiting factor. Tslk8ng to a few lads recently and plant hire crowds and local builders taking in lads again. 2 lads I know gone from farm work to building again

Very hard the blame them if they get a nine to five job and better pay. The reality is farming is a low margin business that depends on cheap labour, be it family labour or hired help. Often possibility farmers don't value their own time enough either.

Kerry2016

Someone from Teagsc told me last week that all we can expect to get paid for our milk for the next 5 years is 30c/L so taking that into account how many cows do you think someone ought to be milking to make a good living out of farming?

Farmer Ed

Kerry2016 wrote: »

Someone from Teagsc told me last week that all we can expect to get paid for our milk for the next 5 years is 30c/L so taking that into account how many cows do you think someone ought to be milking to make a good living out of farming?

All depends on how profitable they are I would think? That is probably different for different farms and situations. Obviously it has to be worth your while. But no point in chasing numbers for the sake of it, if it is not profitable. In that scenario the more cows farmers milks the more money they lose. But I would say not one size fits all. Land, labour,milk price and overall costs will be the new quota.

Fixture

Icbf figures showed calving very slow to get going in Jan and early Feb. That's caught up now. March will be well up on last year.

Lots of lads expanding still. Be interesting to see how many go for AA and Hereford this year. Quite a swing away from black and white in 2016.

Farmer Ed

Fixture wrote: »

Icbf figures showed calving very slow to get going in Jan and early Feb. That's caught up now. March will be well up on last year.

Lots of lads expanding still. Be interesting to see how many go for AA and Hereford this year. Quite a swing away from black and white in 2016.

The more cows that slip in to march the more empty cows next year and with less replacements in the pipeline hard to see where all this extra expansion will come from ?

orm0nd

Farmer Ed wrote: »

The more cows that slip in to march the more empty cows next year and with less replacements in the pipeline hard to see where all this extra expansion will come from ?

unreal amount of heifer calves & bulling heifers being offered for sale,

maybe it's just fellows starting to realize that bigger numbers don't always mean more profit.

pedigree 6

Farmer Ed wrote: »

The more cows that slip in to march the more empty cows next year and with less replacements in the pipeline hard to see where all this extra expansion will come from ?

Don't always work like that.
You can pull the cows back a month with good management.

pedigree 6

orm0nd wrote: »

unreal amount of heifer calves & bulling heifers being offered for sale,

maybe it's just fellows starting to realize that bigger numbers don't always mean more profit.

Are ya buying or selling?:pac:

orm0nd

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Are ya buying or selling?:pac:

whatever there's a twist to be got,

turned a lot of stock since last Monday,

Farmer Ed

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Don't always work like that.
You can pull the cows back a month with good management.

Possibly but the average calving interval is well over a year. That would mean your average cow on your average farm is going to get a little bit later every year. Sure there are some doing better, but the average will determine the average national calving date.

Just a thought but I wonder how much this years slip in calving dates could be attributed to cows not being fed as much last year as farmers tried to cut feed costs as a result of low prices?

mahoney_j

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Possibly but the average calving interval is well over a year. That would mean your average cow on your average farm is going to get a little bit later every year. Sure there are some doing better, but the average will determine the average national calving date.

Just a thought but I wonder how much this years slip in calving dates could be attributed to cows not being fed as much last year as farmers tried to cut feed costs as a result of low prices?

My take on it ,calving date has moved more to early Feb on due to farmers managing herds better ,calving becoming more compact and more trying to calve cows to grass to reduce costs ,

Farmer Ed

mahoney_j wrote: »

My take on it ,calving date has moved more to early Feb on due to farmers managing herds better ,calving becoming more compact and more trying to calve cows to grass to reduce costs ,

Fair enough there will be exceptions but the average is what will determine milk supply at a macro level. That average is in the region of 396 days so march calving cows this year would be April calving cows next year.

https://www.icbf.com/wp/?p=2548

Timmaay

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Fair enough there will be exceptions but the average is what will determine milk supply at a macro level. That average is in the region of 396 days so march calving cows this year would be April calving cows next year.

https://www.icbf.com/wp/?p=2548

Jezz Ed yes OK your defo right, all us farmers are not arsed anymore and have stopped expanding, the one single month of statistics that buckles the trend definely proves expansion is over, we'll all go join you in your negativity now. So can we go back to the milk price now please.