Milk Price III

Keepgrowing

kevthegaff wrote: »

Would u be worried about nxt years price?

Yes. The release of MP that's about to happen and needs to happen will have an impact. I hope some goes to animal feed to move it.

The price of butter is a concern, perhaps we've seen a resetting of the price but I'm not confident. The greatest influence on price is the cost of grain. The world is awash with grain so o can't see a strong price being maintained.

We've fixed at 31.5 for 5 yrs and will take any other fixed offer available as I think the time to fix is when base is high not low.

I hope I'm as wrong as fook

George Sunsnow

I’d say you aren’t wrong
Free fall will probably start around March probably 25 by October and dipping to about 21 by February 19
It’ll be very expensive for any co op with large amounts of fixed price milk to pay for with no contract behind it

whelan2

Will be interesting to see whether Glanbia or Lakelands name their price first this month

mahoney_j

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I’d say you aren’t wrong
Free fall will probably start around March probably 25 by October and dipping to about 21 by February 19
It’ll be very expensive for any co op with large amounts of fixed price milk to pay for with no contract behind it

Absolutely no point predicting that far ahead ,way too many variables .like kg I hope a lot of skim in intervention goes to ainmal rather than human feed ,a lot probably will have to due to time stored .butter I think will stay strong ,all the lads milking on should sit down and think ,literally all there doing is providing cheap milk for coops and adding to already strong skim and wmp stocks ,

Gawddawggonnit

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Yes. The release of MP that's about to happen and needs to happen will have an impact. I hope some goes to animal feed to move it.

The price of butter is a concern, perhaps we've seen a resetting of the price but I'm not confident. The greatest influence on price is the cost of grain. The world is awash with grain so o can't see a strong price being maintained.

We've fixed at 31.5 for 5 yrs and will take any other fixed offer available as I think the time to fix is when base is high not low.

I hope I'm as wrong as fook

There's rumblings from my crowd of a price drop in the new year and the market pretty much supports that.

Butter accounts for just less than 9% of their milk processing. All other products are on the slide a little. No milk powder produced...

Agree about the world being awash with cheap grains not helping us.



Was it Alps that has forecasted price increases for next spring (?), I hope he's right.

Gawddawggonnit

mahoney_j wrote: »

Absolutely no point predicting that far ahead ,way too many variables .like kg I hope a lot of skim in intervention goes to ainmal rather than human feed ,a lot probably will have to due to time stored .butter I think will stay strong ,all the lads milking on should sit down and think ,literally all there doing is providing cheap milk for coops and adding to already strong skim and wmp stocks ,

The powders in intervention need to be moved in the coming year, and NEVER repeat the process again.

These market/farmer supports are distorting and when quotas are gone they're gone!! No more supports!
Let the chips fall where they may.

cute geoge

mahoney_j wrote: »

Absolutely no point predicting that far ahead ,way too many variables .like kg I hope a lot of skim in intervention goes to ainmal rather than human feed ,a lot probably will have to due to time stored .butter I think will stay strong ,all the lads milking on should sit down and think ,literally all there doing is providing cheap milk for coops and adding to already strong skim and wmp stocks ,

I can not understand your thinking on all lads milking on ,surely there is a margin to milk on this year .Last back end you advised lads to milk on at a price 7-8 cents/litre less ,even though they could have gotten 14 cent for staying in bed.

alps

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

The powders in intervention need to be moved in the coming year, and NEVER repeat the process again.

These market/farmer supports are distorting and when quotas are gone they're gone!! No more supports!
Let the chips fall where they may.

Powders are making their way now into calf milk replaced.. .just got an offer for 50% skim product at a price not far off skim intervention price, however the bigger manufacturers are still playing the market for what it can afford to pay and are quoting(though difficult to get) last year's prices and threatening a price rise by early December.

Look at their ingredient prices, it has never ever been cheaper to produce calf milk replacer...play the game now for spring and play it hard...if someone doesn't want to play, there's plenty who will...

mahoney_j

cute geoge wrote: »

I can not understand your thinking on all lads milking on ,surely there is a margin to milk on this year .Last back end you advised lads to milk on at a price 7-8 cents/litre less ,even though they could have gotten 14 cent for staying in bed.

No I didn’t nor never would advise milking through winter without contract ,I’m looking at big picture when saying lads should look deeper if milking on ,yes for a lot there will be a margin this year due to higher base price

alps

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

There's rumblings from my crowd of a price drop in the new year and the market pretty much supports that.

Butter accounts for just less than 9% of their milk processing. All other products are on the slide a little. No milk powder produced...

Agree about the world being awash with cheap grains not helping us.



Was it Alps that has forecasted price increases for next spring (?), I hope he's right.

Was predicting 34 for the fixed rounds to be announced before Christmas due to start in the Spring...we now have 33.5 from Aurivo, but the news from KG that this may contain a coop top up has dampened my spirits somewhat....i have spoken to lads in Aurivo who should know, but don't unfortunately, but this would be an important consideration to clarify, and should have been clarified by Aurivo if it is the case, because it would impact what they can pay for the remaining milk.

I felt that the fixed price offering coming from the farmer owned processors were fully backed by foreword sold product, mainly through the Ornua channels...These offering were based on a specific tonnage of butter, skim and casein that would return a specific price to the farmer over the period of that contract.

Taking values on this, I know of a fixed offering of late, of 31.5 plus vat for a basket that contained butter at 3900 per tonne...i will get exact details as to the rest of the basket, but it contained skim at current reduced rates..

Even though butter has fallen from the lofty heights of near 7000, to over 4000 at present, it may have bottomed out now to its new, healthy, tasty what customers are willing to pay price. Am I right in thinking that butter costs around 4900 on the shop shelf?

Your future price guess is best gauged on how strong you think this new butter revolution is, and if butter can hold 4000plus, with the rest of the basket on the ground, then a price of 31.5 plus vat may not be far from what we should be expecting...

Sentiment for sure will have softened for long buyers, and we may have been beaten by 2 months at getting the 0.5c to get to 34 fixed...but as said above if Aurivo contains a 1.2c coop top up, then guessing at 34 is a pipe dream...

Keepgrowing

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I’d say you aren’t wrong
Free fall will probably start around March probably 25 by October and dipping to about 21 by February 19
It’ll be very expensive for any co op with large amounts of fixed price milk to pay for with no contract behind it

I doubt any coop have fixed contracts that aren't back to back. If they do there's a lot of answers to be given to shareholders.

Coops are going to bleed again in an effort to sub milk prices in 2018/19 if they collapse. I'm not sure if the 37c per litre ATM is a prudent move. I'd love to be getting it but I think a model of topping up every 6 months might be a safer bet.

Not only have we smp in storage but coops have their stores full of daily devaluing product. Their balance sheets are going to be challenged this coming spring. Coops pumped massive amounts of monies onto farms in 15/16 through subbing price and it looks like they'll be called on again

kowtow

Keepgrowing wrote: »

I doubt any coop have fixed contracts that aren't back to back. If they do there's a lot of answers to be given to shareholders.

Coops are going to bleed again in an effort to sub milk prices in 2018/19 if they collapse. I'm not sure if the 37c per litre ATM is a prudent move. I'd love to be getting it but I think a model of topping up every 6 months might be a safer bet.

Not only have we smp in storage but coops have their stores full of daily devaluing product. Their balance sheets are going to be challenged this coming spring. Coops pumped massive amounts of monies onto farms in 15/16 through subbing price and it looks like they'll be called on again

+100

Butter was never going to rise in a straight line, the only question is what price it settles at medium term. Stronger butter within the dairy complex is by far the healthiest base, IMO, on which to build a future for the sort of volumes of milk we are producing here.

I agree that processors would want to watch both stocks & the balance sheet a bit, they shouldn't forget to be seen to trim their own management waste / excess at the same time.

The oil price is a little stronger than many of us imagined as well, which is probably helping dairy along a bit together with a generally volatile year for weather.

George Sunsnow

kowtow wrote: »

they shouldn't forget to be seen to trim their own management waste / excess at the same time.

I’ll have a block of whatever you’re smoking KT if there’s any left

K.G.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I’d say you aren’t wrong
Free fall will probably start around March probably 25 by October and dipping to about 21 by February 19
It’ll be very expensive for any co op with large amounts of fixed price milk to pay for with no contract behind it

what do you base prediction of 21 on.saw a thing recently about european milk prices and they had guys on demanding a milk price of 50 cent and said they needed 40 something to break even.my point is milk will disappear at alot higher prices than 21.

farisfat

K.G. wrote: »

what do you base prediction of 21 on.saw a thing recently about european milk prices and they had guys on demanding a milk price of 50 cent and said they needed 40 something to break even.my point is milk will disappear at alot higher prices than 21.

Yes and very fast if it drops next spring...lads haven't their héad above water yet.

kowtow

K.G. wrote:

what do you base prediction of 21 on.saw a thing recently about european milk prices and they had guys on demanding a milk price of 50 cent and said they needed 40 something to break even.my point is milk will disappear at alot higher prices than 21.

The price at which the tap begins to turn off will get higher here at least as debt and cash wages payable as a result of expansion bring cash cost closer to true cop.

For a lot of Europe they are probably already closer together but then there is also the higher liquid milk price to work against.

I wonder whether many have been able to build up any kind of cash buffer this year. Certainly feels like a good time to be a seller of spare milking stock.

K.G.

alps wrote: »

Was predicting 34 for the fixed rounds to be announced before Christmas due to start in the Spring...we now have 33.5 from Aurivo, but the news from KG that this may contain a coop top up has dampened my spirits somewhat....i have spoken to lads in Aurivo who should know, but don't unfortunately, but this would be an important consideration to clarify, and should have been clarified by Aurivo if it is the case, because it would impact what they can pay for the remaining milk.

I felt that the fixed price offering coming from the farmer owned processors were fully backed by foreword sold product, mainly through the Ornua channels...These offering were based on a specific tonnage of butter, skim and casein that would return a specific price to the farmer over the period of that contract.

Taking values on this, I know of a fixed offering of late, of 31.5 plus vat for a basket that contained butter at 3900 per tonne...i will get exact details as to the rest of the basket, but it contained skim at current reduced rates..

Even though butter has fallen from the lofty heights of near 7000, to over 4000 at present, it may have bottomed out now to its new, healthy, tasty what customers are willing to pay price. Am I right in thinking that butter costs around 4900 on the shop shelf?

Your future price guess is best gauged on how strong you think this new butter revolution is, and if butter can hold 4000plus, with the rest of the basket on the ground, then a price of 31.5 plus vat may not be far from what we should be expecting...

Sentiment for sure will have softened for long buyers, and we may have been beaten by 2 months at getting the 0.5c to get to 34 fixed...but as said above if Aurivo contains a 1.2c coop top up, then guessing at 34 is a pipe dream...

it does look like fixed price for the next 3 years of 31 approx seems to be the ball park for the industry so its a fair indication of the future what ever the peaks and troughs maybe

Farmer Ed

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I’d say you aren’t wrong
Free fall will probably start around March probably 25 by October and dipping to about 21 by February 19
It’ll be very expensive for any co op with large amounts of fixed price milk to pay for with no contract behind it

It won't actually make any difference to co ops if milk is fixed or not as the unfixed will have to support the price of the fixed milk. That is unless the fixed milk has been tied in to a forwards contract for product. However to date I am not aware of any co op that has secured a forwards sales price on the back of fixing a price with farmers. So its going to be a case of farmer Peter subsidising farmer Paul. At the end of the day the over all co op pay out will be the same.

alps

Farmer Ed wrote: »

However to date I am not aware of any co op that has secured a forwards sales price on the back of fixing a price with farmers.

..

Farmer Ed

Possibly Mathew 7:15 may be more appropriate when discussing milk price.

oxjkqg

MollsGap wrote: »

Kerry Group's new boss is offering 1.75 cent/litre to their milk suppliers for the 13th payment.
This is a nice change of approach from the previous boss. Long overdue.

Where did u hear this?
Be a great job if they did. would that be for 2016 milk or 2015 and 2014 too.!

alps

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Possibly Mathew 7:15 may be more appropriate when discussing milk price.

Haha...youve been waiting to play that card for some time..

whelan2

alps wrote: »

Haha...youve been waiting to play that card for some time..

Had to google it, had a chuckle at it

Farmer Ed

alps wrote: »

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Possibly Mathew 7:15 may be more appropriate when discussing milk price.

Haha...youve been waiting to play that card for some time..

Never! But possibly John 10:12 could be applied to hired management of any sort.

Coolfresian

Glanbia holding at 35c/l for October. Am I the only one very disappointed with this? Why can't they pay a similar price that other co ops are to their suppliers?

mahoney_j

Coolfresian wrote: »

Glanbia holding at 35c/l for October. Am I the only one very disappointed with this? Why can't they pay a similar price that other co ops are to their suppliers?

Can’t see any coop rising this month as peak has now passed ,was def room from glanbia to rise but they’ll probably come along in Jan and announce some form of bonus for July to December ,not sure if I’m a fan of that model

Coolfresian

mahoney_j wrote: »

Can’t see any coop rising this month as peak has now passed ,was def room from glanbia to rise but they’ll probably come along in Jan and announce some form of bonus for July to December ,not sure if I’m a fan of that model

I'm not either,whatever the market can return should be paid to suppliers. My gripe is that we often seem to be lagging behind other procesers and there is surely no reason why we should be unless I'm missing something? I felt there was room for 'catch up' with the price this month

whelan2

Coolfresian wrote: »

I'm not either,whatever the market can return should be paid to suppliers. My gripe is that we often seem to be lagging behind other procesers and there is surely no reason why we should be unless I'm missing something? I felt there was room for 'catch up' with the price this month

I feel the same and I am glad they didnt drop it, there's something strange when the biggest creamery is always the lowest payer. Any word on Lakelands price? Will there be another top up for the second six months of the year?

Water John

It may be strange, but no unusual. It has been the case largely for the last 40 years.
And some farmers want the big to get bigger and swallow up the smaller ones. Talk about turkeys and Christmas etc.

mf240

Coolfresian wrote: »

Glanbia holding at 35c/l for October. Am I the only one very disappointed with this? Why can't they pay a similar price that other co ops are to their suppliers?

They had a stand in the ploughing explaining it all. They even had free cheese.