Milk Price III

Buford T. Justice XIX

darragh_haven wrote: »

But isn't everyone saying that we shouldn't be tracking GDT (when it is falling) as it bears no correlation to Irish mink price.

It's the best indicator we have access to as farmers to the current prices being paid for products.

Farmer Ed

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

darragh_haven wrote: »

But isn't everyone saying that we shouldn't be tracking GDT (when it is falling) as it bears no correlation to Irish mink price.

It's the best indicator we have access to as farmers to the current prices being paid for products.

All the same it has been used as a stick to beat us with over the years. And now when the results are starting to go our way the same people are very quick to point out that its not relevant to us at all.

jaymla627

Farmer Ed wrote: »

All the same it has been used as a stick to beat us with over the years. And now when the results are starting to go our way the same people are very quick to point out that its not relevant to us at all.

Looking at the charts very small quantities are being traded, expect for wmp and smp, if the auction is holding and our rising coming into march April may then of course it would make co-ops cutting prices fairly dubious, on the other hand looking at Eurostat prices for this week in the eu smp/wmp are dropping and at very low levels

alps

Must stress not out the woods yet but butter is looking more interesting. Positive GDT yesterday & the futures up again this am. Apr/May butter trading almost €700/t up from Dec'17 lows

Copied from tweet

whelan2

Glanbia stay the same at 35cpl

kevthegaff

I see the Dutch are not so squeaky clean as according to our french friends. Registering multiple births to reduce stocking rates, 2100 farms known. Perhaps it was Dutch Gold not Dutch slurry crossing the french border..,

Buford T. Justice XIX

kevthegaff wrote: »

I see the Dutch are not so squeaky clean as according to our french friends. Registering multiple births to reduce stocking rates, 2100 farms known. Perhaps it was Dutch Gold not Dutch slurry crossing the french border..,

I heard tell of some problems with official numbers of cows but haven't seen anything like that online yet.

kevthegaff

Buford T. Justice V wrote:

I heard tell of some problems with official numbers of cows but haven't seen anything like that online

Agriland

Buford T. Justice XIX

kevthegaff wrote: »

Buford T. Justice V wrote:

I heard tell of some problems with official numbers of cows but haven't seen anything like that online

Agriland

That's a lot of farms. And they after getting a derogation last year as well. I wonder if that well have an effect on this derogation or the next one for the Dutch?

kevthegaff

I'm on the fence with derogation if it is policed properly.. I don't agree with the way agriculture is going in this country, but I think wer not the worse in the class as the be u roc rats make out

GrasstoMilk

kevthegaff wrote: »

I'm on the fence with derogation if it is policed properly.. I don't agree with the way agriculture is going in this country, but I think wer not the worse in the class as the be u roc rats make out

Where would you like to see Irish agriculture going?

Farmer Ed

kevthegaff wrote: »

I see the Dutch are not so squeaky clean as according to our french friends. Registering multiple births to reduce stocking rates, 2100 farms known. Perhaps it was Dutch Gold not Dutch slurry crossing the french border..,

Always struck me that if the dutch were to comply with regulations regarding keeping back from water courses. It would mean you couldn't spread anything on half of the place as there's nothing but water courses there. Could never figure that one out?

whelan2

Anyone know the story about "lullaby" milk?

atlantic mist

heard of it a while back, dont they milk the cows at night
sure its scientifically proven, what more would you want:)
means nothing these days as it differs to medically proven
better not say to much they do blag on about the proteins being scientifically proven prob cause a share price drop in glanbia

on another note doing my research on baby formula and it appears the main ingredients in the majority of formula are milk based, few veg fats added. Going using a swiss formula, all the branded formula have some rubbish in them, huge missed opportunity by our coops and processors in my option, dont rate any formula the irish powder goes into

Farmer Ed

atlantic mist wrote: »

heard of it a while back, dont they milk the cows at night
sure its scientifically proven, what more would you want:)
means nothing these days as it differs to medically proven
better not say to much they do blag on about the proteins being scientifically proven prob cause a share price drop in glanbia

on another note doing my research on baby formula and it appears the main ingredients in the majority of formula are milk based, few veg fats added. Going using a swiss formula, all the branded formula have some rubbish in them, huge missed opportunity by our coops and processors in my option, dont rate any formula the irish powder goes into

Lullaby milk is milked in the dark and bottled by North Cork Co Op for the farmer in question. Possibly a feasible arrangement as the farmer doesn't have the headache of having to set up a processing unit on the farm as well as having to look after distribution themselves.

The problem with infant formula is that there are a few big companies that control the whole thing and as suppliers of raw material to these companies, Irish Co Ops are not in a position to go rattling their Gage's without the risk of damaging their existing business arrangements with these companies.

Gawddawggonnit

http://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2018/02/12/awash-milk-while-buyers-sidelined/331258002/

freedominacup

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

http://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2018/02/12/awash-milk-while-buyers-sidelined/331258002/

I'm always dubious of an analyst who bangs on about kiwi influence on dairy markets without mentioning the Dutch in the same breath. The difference in export capacity between these two countries is negligible at this stage. Neither of them have annual production equivalent to much more than 2 months of US production but somehow nz governs global milk price. In grain terms a rough equivalent would be the uk dictating wheat price globally based on their production.

Gawddawggonnit

freedominacup wrote: »

I'm always dubious of an analyst who bangs on about kiwi influence on dairy markets without mentioning the Dutch in the same breath. The difference in export capacity between these two countries is negligible at this stage. Neither of them have annual production equivalent to much more than 2 months of US production but somehow nz governs global milk price. In grain terms a rough equivalent would be the uk dictating wheat price globally based on their production.

Good point.

kevthegaff

freedominacup wrote:

I'm always dubious of an analyst who bangs on about kiwi influence on dairy markets without mentioning the Dutch in the same breath. The difference in export capacity between these two countries is negligible at this stage. Neither of them have annual production equivalent to much more than 2 months of US production but somehow nz governs global milk price. In grain terms a rough equivalent would be the uk dictating wheat price globally based on their production.

I wonder is it to do with excess milk, as say the US production in general for home market while dutch are the Eu, agree tho its like what the kiwis do dictates the price we get here

Brown Podzol

Only c.7% of dairy production is traded across borders. This 7% seems to dictate the price of the other 93%.

K.G.

met a couple of lads lately that were talking up the price of milk but i cant see it myself as the cycle is the cycle its only a question of timing.strong economic performance around the world is the only thing that might stall the decrease but my gut is telling me it will easy to talk to us next spring.the other thing to remember is the long and higher the high the lower and deeper the low so maybe it would be no harm to have it slip away this year

Buford T. Justice XIX

kevthegaff wrote: »

I wonder is it to do with excess milk, as say the US production in general for home market while dutch are the Eu, agree tho its like what the kiwis do dictates the price we get here

Yeah, the vast majority of NZ produce is exported so it has a huge bearing on the price of milk worldwide. Of the 7% traded worldwide, a very large chunk of that would be NZ powders.

mahoney_j

K.G. wrote: »

met a couple of lads lately that were talking up the price of milk but i cant see it myself as the cycle is the cycle its only a question of timing.strong economic performance around the world is the only thing that might stall the decrease but my gut is telling me it will easy to talk to us next spring.the other thing to remember is the long and higher the high the lower and deeper the low so maybe it would be no harm to have it slip away this year

Agree with that and all the more reason fixed schemes are so appealing ,.the hit when milk prices are high and you’ve a pool fixed a couple cent below is easily outweighed when you could be 8/10 cent up at market trough

Farmer Ed

kevthegaff wrote: »

freedominacup wrote:

I'm always dubious of an analyst who bangs on about kiwi influence on dairy markets without mentioning the Dutch in the same breath. The difference in export capacity between these two countries is negligible at this stage. Neither of them have annual production equivalent to much more than 2 months of US production but somehow nz governs global milk price. In grain terms a rough equivalent would be the uk dictating wheat price globally based on their production.

I wonder is it to do with excess milk, as say the US production in general for home market while dutch are the Eu, agree tho its like what the kiwis do dictates the price we get here

One things for sure the Kiwis have been often used to talk down the price of milk here. By and large traditionally their price has been behind ours so they have usually proved to be a great roll model to use when inspiring us to produce cheap milk.

kowtow

freedominacup wrote: »

I'm always dubious of an analyst who bangs on about kiwi influence on dairy markets without mentioning the Dutch in the same breath. The difference in export capacity between these two countries is negligible at this stage. Neither of them have annual production equivalent to much more than 2 months of US production but somehow nz governs global milk price. In grain terms a rough equivalent would be the uk dictating wheat price globally based on their production.

Was a well written article but I got the impression he was hedging his bets a little.

Quite interesting on the butter stream / incentive for cheese production - IOW the unintended consequences of skim support.

I think i'd be inclined to take the content seriously but ignore the forecast!

Edit: I also wondered aloud, while reading it, whether his explanation of whey product pricing had anything to do with the recent performance of Glanbia vs others and the share price..??

K.G.

mahoney_j wrote: »

K.G. wrote: »

met a couple of lads lately that were talking up the price of milk but i cant see it myself as the cycle is the cycle its only a question of timing.strong economic performance around the world is the only thing that might stall the decrease but my gut is telling me it will easy to talk to us next spring.the other thing to remember is the long and higher the high the lower and deeper the low so maybe it would be no harm to have it slip away this year

Agree with that and all the more reason fixed schemes are so appealing ,.the hit when milk prices are high and you’ve a pool fixed a couple cent below is easily outweighed when you could be 8/10 cent up at market trough

Ah no mahoney ,arent fixed prices just a conspiracey to lock suppliers in and lower milk prices.funny thing is it didnt hurt my eyes to look at the milk statement when milk price was good but when things were bad the fixed price always looked

Farmer Ed

K.G. wrote: »

mahoney_j wrote: »

K.G. wrote: »

met a couple of lads lately that were talking up the price of milk but i cant see it myself as the cycle is the cycle its only a question of timing.strong economic performance around the world is the only thing that might stall the decrease but my gut is telling me it will easy to talk to us next spring.the other thing to remember is the long and higher the high the lower and deeper the low so maybe it would be no harm to have it slip away this year

Agree with that and all the more reason fixed schemes are so appealing ,.the hit when milk prices are high and you’ve a pool fixed a couple cent below is easily outweighed when you could be 8/10 cent up at market trough[/quote
I thought some of you had objections to even discussing milk prices on this thread? Wasn't there a new thread opened up for that?
Meanwhile is there any truth in the rumor that CIT have put in a bulk order for bean counters.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Farmer Ed wrote: »

K.G. wrote: »

Ah no mahoney ,arent fixed prices just a conspiracey to lock suppliers in and lower milk prices.funny thing is it didnt hurt my eyes to look at the milk statement when milk price was good but when things were bad the fixed price always looked[/hearing
I thought some of you had objections to even discussing milk prices on this thread? Wasn't there a new thread opened up for that?
Meanwhile is there any truth in the rumor that CIT have put in a bulk order for bean counters.

Damn vegans, taking all our beans *shakes fist*

Farmer Ed

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Farmer Ed wrote: »

K.G. wrote: »

Ah no mahoney ,arent fixed prices just a conspiracey to lock suppliers in and lower milk prices.funny thing is it didnt hurt my eyes to look at the milk statement when milk price was good but when things were bad the fixed price always looked[/hearing
I thought some of you had objections to even discussing milk prices on this thread? Wasn't there a new thread opened up for that?
Meanwhile is there any truth in the rumor that CIT have put in a bulk order for bean counters.

Damn vegans, taking all our beans *shakes fist*

I sincerely hope the vegans can come up with a transparent way of sharing their beans. Otherwise you could end up with two neighbouring vegans. One staving and the other one increasing our nitric oxide emissions as a result of eating all his neighbor's beans.

mf240

Those vegans do be full of beans