Milk Price III

mahoney_j

farisfat wrote: »

Are the low 20s on the cards before long.

By end of year or next spring unless supply is corrected

wrangler

mahoney_j wrote: »

By end of year or next spring unless supply is corrected

Unlikely, just after hearing of a 1000 sheep farm being converted to cows.....strange times indeed

wrangler

Just sharing this for these people.
I know the family, very sudden decision, hope they're alright

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYE3asQW0AAZWbT.jpg:large

Mooooo

Trump and his trade barriers could work either way for milk price as well

alps

Water John wrote: »

Agrifan, you are preaching heresy. All the processors are telling us, keep increasing production and we'll sell it.
Now, they haven't mentioned, at what price, but that's a small detail that they will tell you, the month after you have sold your milk to them.

Price is completely and utterly irrelevant to the coops, and vital for the plc that it is driven down..

The coops need and take a margin, and take it no matter what the milk price is. They may take less one year and more another year, but it levels our to their required margin, you get what's left. Our coops in general are only processors..

The plc is a different animal completely.....

Is there any other plc/business in the world that can control it's input cost like a dairy plc?

If you had this control on your input providers, would you be worried about milk price?

mahoney_j

alps wrote: »

Price is completely and utterly irrelevant to the coops, and vital for the plc that it is driven down..

The coops need and take a margin, and take it no matter what the milk price is. They may take less one year and more another year, but it levels our to their required margin, you get what's left. Our coops in general are only processors..

The plc is a different animal completely.....

Is there any other plc/business in the world that can control it's input cost like a dairy plc?

If you had this control on your input providers, would you be worried about milk price?

Excellent point

mahoney_j

I for one would be very worried about milk price for next 12/18 months ,huge surge of milk comming and lots of stock around ,powder markets on the floor and big intervention stocks .fixed another 10% of my milk last week looking a wise now ......

farisfat

3 or 4 years of the low 20s would sort over supply.....but they won't let that happen.

oxjkqg

Kerry dropped aswell

mahoney_j

oxjkqg wrote: »

Kerry dropped aswell

How much

RightTurnClyde

mahoney_j wrote: »

How much

2c

whelan2

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

2c

To 33?

Buford T. Justice XIX

whelan2 wrote: »

To 33?

34c/l @ 3.6/3.3

Dakota Dan

Water John wrote: »

Agrifan, you are preaching heresy. All the processors are telling us, keep increasing production and we'll sell it.
Now, they haven't mentioned, at what price, but that's a small detail that they will tell you, the month after you have sold your milk to them.

Supply and demand always dictates the price and there is too much milk around. It's easy to bury your head in the sand about it.

Coolfresian

Lakeland down 1c to 34.5c . What's going on with glanbia being so savage with the cut???

orm0nd

It was always on the cards that post quota milk price would hover around 27

With a bit of luck we might not reach that this year.

Nobody can forecast long term due to global circumstances

I know one thing on this farm anyhow the weather is a bigger concern than milk prices

whelan2

Coolfresian wrote: »

Lakeland down 1c to 34.5c . What's going on with glanbia being so savage with the cut???

Because they can drop it as much as they like

Coolfresian

whelan2 wrote: »

Because they can drop it as much as they like

It's sad really and any choice of changing proccesors is daunting with having to give 2 years notice. It d be like telling your wife ur going to divorce her in 2 years!

whelan2

Coolfresian wrote: »

It's sad really and any choice of changing proccesors is daunting with having to give 2 years notice. It d be like telling your wife ur going to divorce her in 2 years!

Apparently the only other place that will take on ex glanbia suppliers in my area is Strathroy

Coolfresian

whelan2 wrote: »

Apparently the only other place that will take on ex glanbia suppliers in my area is Strathroy

I'd have no qualms in joining strathroy. I know a lot of very happy dairy farmers both spring and liquid who have. The border issue after brexit is my only concern atm.

alps

Coolfresian wrote: »

I'd have no qualms in joining strathroy. I know a lot of very happy dairy farmers both spring and liquid who have. The border issue after brexit is my only concern atm.

It could be an opportunity..

Water John

Strathroy have access to processing in the ROI too.

Gawddawggonnit

leg wax wrote: »

now i will hit the sales for a few heifers,,,

Keep your powder dry for a little while yet Leg wax.
Was talking to an old buddy earlier and he was telling me that there’s a pretty large issue with animal welfare and over stocking...

Coolfresian

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Keep your powder dry for a little while yet Leg wax.
Was talking to an old buddy earlier and he was telling me that there’s a pretty large issue with animal welfare and over stocking...

Is that due to farmers expanding numbers too quick and a lack of proper facilities/slurry storage?

Gawddawggonnit

jaymla627 wrote: »

Entirely depends on where butter prices stay, at 4800 a ton and if skim/wmp powder stay at current levels, I'd reckon 28 cent would be a good average....
A lot of ominous signs re supply ramping up in Europe, along with intervention stocks, plus what the Americans have in storage their is a glut of dairy products trying to find homes

I posted a while back that the worst drought in 40yrs was holding back supply across Europe. Once the drought broke in France milk supply surged even though loads of small producers quit.

Thing is, French dairy farmers are always around 6-12mth in advance of costs because they don’t live hand-to-mouth as regards forage/feed. Therefore they can ride out a shytestorm for those 6-12mts...won’t stop them throwing a tantrum though.
Interesting times indeed.

Gawddawggonnit

agrifan_1090 wrote: »

dairys on a road to nowhere atm . we're producing way too much milk all across europe since quotas were lifted. hogan had a sharp message and its time it sunk in. this volatility is unworkable we'd be far better off having less milk but it be more valuable.

Can’t agree.
What I’ve a real issue with is Bruxelles stepping in and manipulating a supposedly *free* market. Bring on a proper free market like Eu grains taking on Russian grains exported via the Black Sea. That’s a proper free market. Sink or swim.

Gawddawggonnit

wrangler wrote: »

Just sharing this for these people.
I know the family, very sudden decision, hope they're alright

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYE3asQW0AAZWbT.jpg:large

I find that a little bizarre. People on Twitter treating it like a death in the family...why?
Change of system is all. Not like they’re becoming vegan or worse, quitting vegan to become carnivores. Weird.

Gawddawggonnit

farisfat wrote: »

3 or 4 years of the low 20s would sort over supply.....but they won't let that happen.

A Jeez, wouldn’t take that long.

It actually might happen. The Dutch have really put the cat amongst the pigeons with their environmental banditry. The Commission may well back off...hopefully.

wrangler

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

I find that a little bizarre. People on Twitter treating it like a death in the family...why?
Change of system is all. Not like their becoming vegan or worse, quitting vegan to become carnivores. Weird.

It's the fact that it's for health reasons I suppose,
it's more than a change of system.
I just shared it to promote the sale,

jaymla627

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Keep your powder dry for a little while yet Leg wax.
Was talking to an old buddy earlier and he was telling me that there’s a pretty large issue with animal welfare and over stocking...

Once the magicial urea kicks in all will be well, it's just a tad late this year is all, as bad as 2013 at least ground conditions where reasonable enough for grazing what grass was their this spring is just a write-off for grazing