Milk Price III

Gawddawggonnit

Coolfresian wrote: »

Is that due to farmers expanding numbers too quick and a lack of proper facilities/slurry storage?

I don’t know.

He’s an old friend. A cow died from peritonitis and he’d to take it to the knackery himself because they’re flat out collecting fallen stock...go figure.

alps

Dakota Dan wrote: »

Supply and demand always dictates the price

3 variables, but I believe they can be linked in many ways..

I would also suggest that price can dictate both supply and demand..

The initial response to milk price drop in Ireland in 2015, was to produce more, to offset fixed costs and maximise asset base, while accepting a reduced unit margin.

The same will happen this time round unfortunately, and while both the commission and indeed manybfarmers may wish for reduction in supply, this is a hopeless wish..

The only reduction in supply will come from limitations to produce ( which I believe are not far away) or the financial destruction of the industry in certain geographic areas.

Individual farmers in all areas may come under such financial strain as to cease production, but in the main this production will be taken up by neighbouring units to such an extent that this will not lead to volume reduction.

Price will also dictate demand, and the reason Ireland held very little stocks through and after the last price price trough was because of the demand created for Irish product. This demand was created by the price, or the reduction in price..

Our industry took the decision more than 10 years ago to major in the low priced product arena once quotas were lifted. The feeling was that we could sell all we could produce, as long as we could produce cheaper than any opposition... the mantra of "we'll burn them off" was delivered by many...

Neither us farmers, nor our processing industry will make a decision to limit production unless regulated to do so, or until the margin in our industry is so tight as to limit the possibility of the addition of any further processing facilities.

Gawddawggonnit

alps wrote: »

3 variables, but I believe they can be linked in many ways..

I would also suggest that price can dictate both supply and demand..

The initial response to milk price drop in Ireland in 2015, was to produce more, to offset fixed costs and maximise asset base, while accepting a reduced unit margin.

The same will happen this time round unfortunately, and while both the commission and indeed manybfarmers may wish for reduction in supply, this is a hopeless wish..

The only reduction in supply will come from limitations to produce ( which I believe are not far away) or the financial destruction of the industry in certain geographic areas.

Individual farmers in all areas may come under such financial strain as to cease production, but in the main this production will be taken up by neighbouring units to such an extent that this will not lead to volume reduction.

Price will also dictate demand, and the reason Ireland held very little stocks through and after the last price price trough was because of the demand created for Irish product. This demand was created by the price, or the reduction in price..

Our industry took the decision more than 10 years ago to major in the low priced product arena once quotas were lifted. The feeling was that we could sell all we could produce, as long as we could produce cheaper than any opposition... the mantra of "we'll burn them off" was delivered by many...

Neither us farmers, nor our processing industry will make a decision to limit production unless regulated to do so, or until the margin in our industry is so tight as to limit the possibility of the addition of any further processing facilities.

Hmmm.
Good post Alps.

Way back in ‘14/‘15 I was lambasted for saying that the end of quota would inevitably end up in this scenario. If you read the Teagasc report of 2011 (I think) they also pointed to this.
The smaller producers can’t compete without protection. Whether that be market protection/manipulation... or government supports/low or no borrowings/ unpaid family labour etc etc.

How many 100acre tillage/beef/sheep farmers are making a * full time* living from farming? Very few. The sting is that dairy farming doesn’t lend itself to part time farming.

Are you seeking/expecting/hoping for a return to some kind of market restriction/protection/support??

Senior hurling and all that...

Timmaay

A reasonable question to ask, do you have any idea what the lowest price you can tolerate long-term? Ie lower than it's simply not worth staying milking? For me I'm certainly not willing to skin right down to the bone if push came to shove and would not like to have to try get by on anything under the likes of 25c/l, 5year lease on the farm, take my tax free 20k/yr, and go back engineering would be alot better than being tied down milking 7days a week for very little return.

wrangler

Timmaay wrote: »

A reasonable question to ask, do you have any idea what the lowest price you can tolerate long-term? Ie lower than it's simply not worth staying milking? For me I'm certainly not willing to skin right down to the bone if push came to shove and would not like to have to try get by on anything under the likes of 25c/l, 5year lease on the farm, take my tax free 20k/yr, and go back engineering would be alot better than being tied down milking 7days a week for very little return.

Your mythical 20K/yr lease is due to milk price,
Where do you expect it to be at 25c/ltr

charolais0153

Timmaay wrote: »

A reasonable question to ask, do you have any idea what the lowest price you can tolerate long-term? Ie lower than it's simply not worth staying milking? For me I'm certainly not willing to skin right down to the bone if push came to shove and would not like to have to try get by on anything under the likes of 25c/l, 5year lease on the farm, take my tax free 20k/yr, and go back engineering would be alot better than being tied down milking 7days a week for very little return.

25c/lite base price or paid?

wats the craic

Water John wrote: »

Strathroy have access to processing in the ROI too.

we have only one processing plant and that is in omagh . but alot of milk went to north cork last year from wexford

wrangler

Interesting figures here seeing that I'm getting the pension in July.
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/facts-and-figures-is-land-leasing-as-lucrative-as-dairy-farming-35391215.html

K.G.

Jaysus lads steady on,a couple of months ago somebody was for casting a fixed price of 36 and suddenly we are saying low twenties.at the risk of repeating myself ,its the cycle lads its the cycle

Gawddawggonnit

Timmaay wrote: »

A reasonable question to ask, do you have any idea what the lowest price you can tolerate long-term? Ie lower than it's simply not worth staying milking? For me I'm certainly not willing to skin right down to the bone if push came to shove and would not like to have to try get by on anything under the likes of 25c/l, 5year lease on the farm, take my tax free 20k/yr, and go back engineering would be alot better than being tied down milking 7days a week for very little return.

It would make a lot of sense for a large section of farmers Tim. However there’s a lack of objectivity within the industry. Maybe farmers believe the hype coming from the establishment??
I could never understand the children being called ‘little farmers’, why would anyone subject their children to constant hardship for little return, when they could be as you suggest and have a comfortable life?
I haven’t milked a cow since Christmas but it’s still hardship. If grains were to return to providing a half decent margin I’d be shut of cows...no harm in dreaming I suppose. Grains in a global environment are going to depend on weather events across the globe to create a price rise. This will always be short lived.
Milk is going to be the same.

IMHO.

Keepgrowing

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

I don’t know.

He’s an old friend. A cow died from peritonitis and he’d to take it to the knackery himself because they’re flat out collecting fallen stock...go figure.

So to be clear, your "buddy" is a farmer not a Dept decision maker. His cow died and he called the knacker, the knacker was busy and his conclusion is that there'll be a clampdown on dairy farming because of animal welfare issues.

Would that be about the size of it?

Gawddawggonnit

Keepgrowing wrote: »

So to be clear, your "buddy" is a farmer not a Dept decision maker. His cow died and he called the knacker, the knacker was busy and his conclusion is that there'll be a clampdown on dairy farming because of animal welfare issues.

Would that be about the size of it?

No. Couldn’t be further from the truth.

Clampdown??
I never said or insinuated such a thing.

Leg wax suggested it might be a good time to buy some dairy stock...I suggested to toughen it a bit.
That’s all.

Relax.


In fact I’m waiting on a call from Holland for some cows at reasonable prices.

Keepgrowing

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

No. Couldn’t be further from the truth.

Clampdown??
I never said or insinuated such a thing.

Leg wax suggested it might be a good time to buy some dairy stock...I suggested to toughen it a bit.
That’s all.

Relax.


In fact I’m waiting on a call from Holland for some cows at reasonable prices.

"A pretty large issue with welfare and overstocking" is what you said

mf240

A lad told a lad that a lad on a lorry told him he was busy.

whelan2

Spring is the busiest time for knackeries add in the snow and storm. They are flat out.

Gawddawggonnit

Keepgrowing wrote: »

"A pretty large issue with welfare and overstocking" is what you said

Lol.

Yes Ophelia never happened.
The Beast from the east never happened.
The cold snap next week won’t happen.
Greenfield welfare (non) issues.

Early grass turnout and an amazingly short winter.
Tarring the roads with surplus fodder. Etc etc

Jaysus ye’re à touchy bunch.

Relax ffs.

If farmers aren’t feeling pressured now with milk price going the wrong way...
Go to f4f and read the last page of the milk price thread.

Panch18

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Lol.

Yes Ophelia never happened.
The Beast from the east never happened.
The cold snap next week won’t happen.
Greenfield welfare (non) issues.

Early grass turnout and an amazingly short winter.
Tarring the roads with surplus fodder. Etc etc

Jaysus ye’re à touchy bunch.

Relax ffs.

If farmers aren’t feeling pressured now with milk price going the wrong way...
Go to f4f and read the last page of the milk price thread.

Just an idea but maybe it would be better if you just wrote about French farming on this website rather continuously stir s##t about Irish farming when the reality is that you really haven't a clue what you are talking about in an Irish context

just a thought like

whelan2

Panch18 wrote: »

Just an idea but maybe it would be better if you just wrote about French farming on this website rather continuously stir s##t about Irish farming when the reality is that you really haven't a clue what you are talking about in an Irish context

just a thought like

Aye or maybe post about the milk price......

einn32

Milk price doesn't matter to most dairy farmers in Ireland. They just keep milking away. It's a conversation topic. It's a way of life. Subsidy...don't touch that though! The odd few run it as a business but they never hammer the processor for a crap price.

Every time price changes we get the same talk. price goes down... We're all finished, no you're not. Most people inherited a farm and get subsidies. It's hard to mess that up.

Milk goes up and everything is grand, let's start expanding.

whelan2

When do strathroy announce their price?

wats the craic

whelan2 wrote: »

When do strathroy announce their price?

soon i hope let you know when i know

Bo dearg

By glanbia cutting price by 3cent does it not seem like they're using spring milk supply to subsidise what they paid for winter milk supply

K.G.

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Keepgrowing wrote: »

"A pretty large issue with welfare and overstocking" is what you said

Lol.

Yes Ophelia never happened.
The Beast from the east never happened.
The cold snap next week won’t happen.
Greenfield welfare (non) issues.

Early grass turnout and an amazingly short winter.
Tarring the roads with surplus fodder. Etc etc

Jaysus ye’re à touchy bunch.

Relax ffs.

If farmers aren’t feeling pressured now with milk price going the wrong way...
Go to f4f and read the last page of the milk price thread.

Had the lorry in yard myself this week and the driver said they had their busiest week ever last week.he also said the boss told him last october that spring would be busy.it was based on the fact that silage was testing so poorly

freedominacup

Panch18 wrote: »

Just an idea but maybe it would be better if you just wrote about French farming on this website rather continuously stir s##t about Irish farming when the reality is that you really haven't a clue what you are talking about in an Irish context

just a thought like

I'd have to disagree. He might stir things a bit but there's usually a grain of truth in his posts. Things would be a good deal duller around here without them.

We lost 3 cows and a calf on the past ten days. One completely unexplained, one pneumonia complication of another infection and one a heifer that aborted due to a puck when groups were mixed back in January. She never raised a gallop after it and got two bouts of pneumonia before just pining away. Both of these cows were seen by a vet a couple of times so my conscience is clear that we did our best for them. Waiting five days at this stage for knackery to come for them but they're swamped.

charolais0153

Panch18 wrote: »

Just an idea but maybe it would be better if you just wrote about French farming on this website rather continuously stir s##t about Irish farming when the reality is that you really haven't a clue what you are talking about in an Irish context

just a thought like

People are allowed to have different opinions...

farisfat

I'm not in a dairy area all sucklers and sheep and I'm waiting 4 days for them to lift a dead calve.

Gawddawggonnit

whelan2 wrote: »

Aye or maybe post about the milk price......

With all due respect Whelan2...you’re a regular contributor on F4F and on the milk price thread there were posts that were quite explicit about animal welfare. I know both posters. Both are well informed and well educated and they are definitely not prone to exaggeration. However I get cut in two for making a pretty innocuous comment...
MF240 posted a pic before those posts and you commented after those posts...not a geex out of both of ye. Words like ‘neglect’ etc bandied about.
Fyi I posted my milk price until next May and thereafter commented on other people’s posts.
I’m not having a cut at you or MF240 as I always respect ye’re contributions.

As for other contributors, you’d be surprised how (ill) informed I am about farming in Ireland...

mf240

Fair enough dawg. This is the pic I posted for anyone wondering.

boggerman1

mf240 wrote: »

Fair enough dawg. This is the pic I posted for anyone wondering.

God what do some lads be thinking

Panch18

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

With all due respect Whelan2...you’re a regular contributor on F4F and on the milk price thread there were posts that were quite explicit about animal welfare. I know both posters. Both are well informed and well educated and they are definitely not prone to exaggeration. However I get cut in two for making a pretty innocuous comment...
MF240 posted a pic before those posts and you commented after those posts...not a geex out of both of ye. Words like ‘neglect’ etc bandied about.
Fyi I posted my milk price until next May and thereafter commented on other people’s posts.
I’m not having a cut at you or MF240 as I always respect ye’re contributions.

As for other contributors, you’d be surprised how (ill) informed I am about farming in Ireland...

Of course you're well informed about farming in Ireland, shur weren't you on a phone to a fella the other night