President 'The Donald' Trump and Surprising Consequences - Mod warning in OP

demfad

wonderfullife wrote: »

Just to clarify and simplify this whole debacle:

Acting Attorney General Sally Yates informed the White House 3 weeks ago that she felt Flynn had lied to VP Pence. CIA Director Brennan supported her.

Trump knew 3 weeks ago that Flynn had lied.

He wasn't fired for lying to VP Pence. He was fired because people leaked proof he was lying.

Also, anybody believing that fairytale also must, by proxy, believe in unicorns and the tooth fairy.

Trump knew all along, in fact it's inconceivable he didn't instruct Flynn in the first place.

Here's how it likely went down:

Obama - New sanctions, deport Russian spies.

Trump - Oi, Flynn, whatsapp the Russian Ambassador and tell him to chill I'll remove the sanctions in a month.

Flynn - Already done.

That would have been the start and end of it other than:

1. The CIA/NSA had the knives out for Flynn (& Trump).
2. Flynn is a moron who thought he wouldn't get caught.
3. White House is leakier than a Golden Shower.

Also, I'm increasingly worried for life of Christopher Steele. That dossier he compiled of raw intelligence is looking increasingly legit for some time now. Some of it is probably hearsay but he's been backed up now on 3 separate occasions of things he predicted, including the transfer of 19% of that company.

The scandal won't bring down Trump.

What it will do, however, is increase the pace of Putin's aggression in Ukraine and eastern Europe. He knows Trump is on thin ice so he'll move hard and fast in the next 4 to 5 months and claim as much territory as possible before the GOP have enough of Trump.

Also expect a US - Iran war before summer, as that'll be the only distraction left for Trump to turn to.

Good post. The Flynn scandal isn't over yet though. Trump has been silent on this. Why was Flynn not fired but allowed to resign? Because Trump would have to give an explanation for the firing. He would have to state that he himself knew nothing of the sanctions conversation. He may be worried about another Intel leak to directly contradict this, that Trump requested and read the transcript for example.
But his agreement with Flynn may have been that he didn't diss him. Flynn is unstable, believes in conspiracy theories, liable to explosions of anger. If Trump states innocent this automatically implicates Flynn and Flynn will blow.
One Republican Senator said yesterday (at a town hall meeting) that if the lies went as far as something Trump they would have to do something (impeach).
The media may not let this go and Dems in congress wont.
If the writing is on the wall and Trump will be exposed of colluded with Russia to win the election then Reps might start to realise that the longer they leave it the worse it may be for them.

demfad

Peregrinus wrote: »

To my lasting regret, there is no "must" about it. Trump is not a details man.


On the contrary, the media have been feasting on a rich and varied diet since Inauguration Day. The Trump regime so far as been a parade of follies, embarrassments and stuff-ups. Errors which in other circumstances would be headline news for weeks are daily eclipsed by still more egregious errors, and there is no situation so bad that Donald cannot make it worse with an ill-judged, ill-timed tweet.

IMO the tweets are not ill-timed as the purpose of many of the loonier seeming ones is deflection from other issues. Look at what he has NOT tweeted about. There are currently 5 investigations into Russia/Trump campaign-Putin etc. He doesn't tweet about those because he doesn't wish to draw attention to it.
His base are happy with anything he or his group says. 51% believe that the ban was justified to avoid another Bowling Green massacre.

sondagefaux

Less than 30 days in office and he's reversed himself on the 'One China' policy, has had one of his Executive Orders blocked by the courts and has now lost his National Security Advisor. So far, one of the weakest starts to a Presidency in recent US history.

Water John

If you really want to frighten yourself, I'd say this is worth a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/feb/14/david-cay-johnston-publishers-assumed-trump-would-soon-disappear

The making of Donald Trump.

Lemming

wonderfullife wrote: »

Also expect a US - Iran war before summer, as that'll be the only distraction left for Trump to turn to.

Congress will never approve that little jaunt. Not least because the US military would advise strongly that any attempt to land boots on Iranian soil would end up being ... exceedingly costly on all fronts military, diplomatic, economic, and social.

RobertKK

wonderfullife wrote: »

Just to clarify and simplify this whole debacle:

Acting Attorney General Sally Yates informed the White House 3 weeks ago that she felt Flynn had lied to VP Pence. CIA Director Brennan supported her.

Trump knew 3 weeks ago that Flynn had lied.

He wasn't fired for lying to VP Pence. He was fired because people leaked proof he was lying.

Also, anybody believing that fairytale also must, by proxy, believe in unicorns and the tooth fairy.

Trump knew all along, in fact it's inconceivable he didn't instruct Flynn in the first place.

Here's how it likely went down:

Obama - New sanctions, deport Russian spies.

Trump - Oi, Flynn, whatsapp the Russian Ambassador and tell him to chill I'll remove the sanctions in a month.

Flynn - Already done.

That would have been the start and end of it other than:

1. The CIA/NSA had the knives out for Flynn (& Trump).
2. Flynn is a moron who thought he wouldn't get caught.
3. White House is leakier than a Golden Shower.

Also, I'm increasingly worried for life of Christopher Steele. That dossier he compiled of raw intelligence is looking increasingly legit for some time now. Some of it is probably hearsay but he's been backed up now on 3 separate occasions of things he predicted, including the transfer of 19% of that company.

The scandal won't bring down Trump.

What it will do, however, is increase the pace of Putin's aggression in Ukraine and eastern Europe. He knows Trump is on thin ice so he'll move hard and fast in the next 4 to 5 months and claim as much territory as possible before the GOP have enough of Trump.

Also expect a US - Iran war before summer, as that'll be the only distraction left for Trump to turn to.

It could have been the case that Trump chose not to believe the people who told him as they were appointed by Obama.

Christy42

RobertKK wrote: »

It could have been the case that Trump chose not to believe the people who told him as they were appointed by Obama.

Hopefully he learns the lesson then. This is not the first time that Obama's AG has been proven correct. Contrary to the spin being put up some of Obama's appointees knew what they were about.

Akrasia

Lemming wrote: »

Congress will never approve that little jaunt. Not least because the US military would advise strongly that any attempt to land boots on Iranian soil would end up being ... exceedingly costly on all fronts military, diplomatic, economic, and social.

Never underestimate the cravenness of the U.S. congress

Trump doesn't have to declare war to attack Iran. He only needs approval by congress to declare war, and if he starts a war and Iran engage, then congress will feel they have no choice but to authorise the war in order to defend Israel who would be caught in the crossfire.

RobertKK

Israel is most likely to start a war with Iran.

Harika

RobertKK wrote: »

Israel is most likely to start a war with Iran.

Israel can attack with their air force, so chirurgical strikes only, but no all out war. If they declare war, they have to hope that the US comes to their aid, what seems even for them unlikely as they will have to support an offensive war, against an enemy that basically has not done anything wrong. With the exception of the rocket test, where you need lawyers to verify if it was a violation or not. Please remember that Israel has no border with Iran and for an offensive build up, they have to move the troops to Afghanistan as the rest of the countries don't seem reasonable to grant access for this brainless war. Afghanistan makes no sense too, if I think about it.
And the world community will put sanctions in place, where the russian sanctions were only a minor inconvenience against that. (Hit the russian economy hard, but very targeted)

Mr.Micro

Akrasia wrote: »

Never underestimate the cravenness of the U.S. congress

Trump doesn't have to declare war to attack Iran. He only needs approval by congress to declare war, and if he starts a war and Iran engage, then congress will feel they have no choice but to authorise the war in order to defend Israel who would be caught in the crossfire.

The last wars have not ended yet. Iraq a mess, Afghanistan a mess, and most of the regions where the US and NATO tried to fix things. Going after Iran would be a big mistake IMO. The consequences would be disasterous, but it's thousands of miles from Trumpland so why not. Others can suffer the consequences.

vetinari

This is some shambolic start to a presidency. Thankfully!
I'd the say the odds on the Steele dossier being corroborated are dropping.
Expect lots more leaks in the weeks ahead.

Regards Flynn, I would say most security advisors have broken the law about talking foreign policy with counterparts before the inauguration.
What's a first is that the intelligence community threw him under the bus so quickly.

Professor Moriarty

A letter to today's NYT:

To the Editor:

Charles M. Blow (column, nytimes.com, Feb. 9) describes Donald Trump’s constant need “to grind the opposition underfoot.” As mental health professionals, we share Mr. Blow’s concern.

Silence from the country’s mental health organizations has been due to a self-imposed dictum about evaluating public figures (the American Psychiatric Association’s 1973 Goldwater Rule). But this silence has resulted in a failure to lend our expertise to worried journalists and members of Congress at this critical time. We fear that too much is at stake to be silent any longer.

Mr. Trump’s speech and actions demonstrate an inability to tolerate views different from his own, leading to rage reactions. His words and behavior suggest a profound inability to empathize. Individuals with these traits distort reality to suit their psychological state, attacking facts and those who convey them (journalists, scientists).

In a powerful leader, these attacks are likely to increase, as his personal myth of greatness appears to be confirmed. We believe that the grave emotional instability indicated by Mr. Trump’s speech and actions makes him incapable of serving safely as president.

LANCE DODES

JOSEPH SCHACHTER

Beverly Hills, Calif.

Dr. Dodes is a retired assistant clinical professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School. Dr. Schachter is a former chairman of the Committee on Research Proposals, International Psychoanalytic Association. The letter was also signed by 35 other psychiatrists, psychologists and social workers.

KingBrian2

With Trump's travel ban being suspended by a Judge who was appointed by Bush it will be interesting to see if their will be civil war within the GOP ranks. We have one of Bush's picks the war monger ruling against Trump's immigration law and of course Obama DA also resigning and he was also gung ho like his Republican colleagues. The previous appointees are making the difference.

Professor Moriarty

vetinari wrote: »

This is some shambolic start to a presidency. Thankfully!
I'd the say the odds on the Steele dossier being corroborated are dropping.
Expect lots more leaks in the weeks ahead.

Regards Flynn, I would say most security advisors have broken the law about talking foreign policy with counterparts before the inauguration.
What's a first is that the intelligence community threw him under the bus so quickly.

The intelligence services have very good reason to dislike Trump.

They will also have a lot of information on him from the past 50 years. Therefore, they have a lot of power.

Harika

So drain the swamp has now become: make the swamp great again

House Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) said on Tuesday that his panel will not investigate the circumstances that led to former national security adviser Michael Flynn's resignation.

The GOP is not even interested in finding out the backstory of it in detail. Are they afraid of bringing Trump down or do they want to wait for a more convenient opportunity? Cause even hardcore republicans should be interested to know if they are now remote controlled by Putin.

Professor Moriarty

Harika wrote: »

So drain the swamp has now become: make the swamp great again



The GOP is not even interested in finding out the backstory of it in detail. Are they afraid of bringing Trump down or do they want to wait for a more convenient opportunity? Cause even hardcore republicans should be interested to know if they are now remote controlled by Putin.

Don't worry, it will be fully discussed in McDonald's tonight.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/831522139585011712

Don't sleep on this guys. No way would Breitbart publish a hit on Preibus without Bannon allowing it.

Water John

Bannon, Miller, Kuschner clique pushing hard.

donaldtramp

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The intelligence services have very good reason to dislike Trump.

They will also have a lot of information on him from the past 50 years. Therefore, they have a lot of power.

I love listening to people who don't know what they're talking about, your improvisation is entertaining.

Trump is, at this moment in time, the most powerful person in the US, I don't think anyone cares about what "information" the intelligence services have on him; nor do they have anything on him, and if they did: you wouldn't know!!!

Trump is not only feared by the intelligence agencies; he practically owns them now so I don't think they're going to turn on him..

Water John

tramp, that's so far from reality. By now we are developing a good antennae for this.

Zubeneschamali

donaldtramp wrote: »

Trump is not only feared by the intelligence agencies; he practically owns them now so I don't think they're going to turn on him..

The intelligence agencies just got rid of Flynn by letting it be known that they have a recording of his talk with the Russians and that he did discuss sanctions.

Trump is not amused. Not by the Russian thing, he clearly knew about that. No apparently:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/831510532318429184

eire4

donaldtramp wrote: »

I love listening to people who don't know what they're talking about, your improvisation is entertaining.

Trump is, at this moment in time, the most powerful person in the US, I don't think anyone cares about what "information" the intelligence services have on him; nor do they have anything on him, and if they did: you wouldn't know!!!

Trump is not only feared by the intelligence agencies; he practically owns them now so I don't think they're going to turn on him..

Sounds like the lovely path towards turning the US from the oligarchy now run by plutocrats into an authoritarian one as well as evinced by Miller recent comments:

"our opponents, the media and the whole world will soon see as we begin to take further actions, that the powers of the president to protect our country are very substantial and will not be questioned."

Wanderer78

donaldtramp wrote: »

I love listening to people who don't know what they're talking about, your improvisation is entertaining.

Trump is, at this moment in time, the most powerful person in the US, I don't think anyone cares about what "information" the intelligence services have on him; nor do they have anything on him, and if they did: you wouldn't know!!!

Trump is not only feared by the intelligence agencies; he practically owns them now so I don't think they're going to turn on him..

the president of america truly is only a puppet, the center of power is with extremely powerful groups who are still running the show. sit back and watch the show;)

KingBrian2

Wanderer78 wrote: »

the president of america truly is only a puppet, the center of power is with extremely powerful groups who are still running the show. sit back and watch the show;)

Pres Obama had very little power during the election season and before that his power was severely limited. He could still have pressed the button that starts another World War.

Wanderer78

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Pres Obama had very little power during the election season and before that his power was severely limited. He could still have pressed the button that starts another World War.

i beleive the president doesnt have control of 'the button', those kind of decisions are made by a multiple level processes, i.e. the president would be a part of decision making process but probably doesn't have the ultimate say.

Itssoeasy

So Kelly Anne Conway has made a "clear violation" according to the ethics office.

This trump administration is a basket case.

Wanderer78

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So Kelly Anne Conway has made a "clear violation" according to the ethics office.

This trump administration is a basket case.

oh dont worry, much much weirder stuff is on the way. sit back and watch 'drama queen politics'

Christy42

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So Kelly Anne Conway has made a "clear violation" according to the ethics office.

This trump administration is a basket case.

This the using the White house position to give out free advertising to people she likes issue again or something new?

Hope they do something beyond a stern warning.

Itssoeasy

Christy42 wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So Kelly Anne Conway has made a "clear violation" according to the ethics office.

This trump administration is a basket case.

This the using the White house position to give out free advertising to people she likes issue again or something new?

Hope they do something beyond a stern warning.

No the ivanka issue.