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President 'The Donald' Trump and Surprising Consequences - Mod warning in OP

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    #7532
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,453 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    If he's unpopularity ratings stay as they are, he will inevitably drag down GOP candidates in the 2018 elections.


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    #7533
    Ozymandius2011
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Water John wrote: »
    If he's unpopularity ratings stay as they are, he will inevitably drag down GOP candidates in the 2018 elections.
    His approval rating in the National Exit Poll last November was around the same as now.


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    #7534
    Mr.Micro
    Registered Users Posts: 5,336 ✭✭✭Mr.Micro


    Water John wrote: »
    If he's unpopularity ratings stay as they are, he will inevitably drag down GOP candidates in the 2018 elections.

    The Republicans will do nothing. They have a President with their brand. They perhaps thought they could control such a buffoon, but that is not the case. They are now stuck between a rock and a hard place. Trump if anything, appears to be consolidating his position.


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    #7535
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Mr.Micro wrote: »
    The Republicans will do nothing. They have a President with their brand. They perhaps thought they could control such a buffoon, but that is not the case. They are now stuck between a rock and a hard place. Trump if anything, appears to be consolidating his position.

    I would have thought that impeaching him (soon) and replacing him with a true Republican would be good for them. Pence would be better that Trump or Paul Ryan would be next.

    Getting to Paul Ryan would require Pence to go first or together with Trump though.


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    #7536
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,533 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    I would have thought that impeaching him (soon) and replacing him with a true Republican would be good for them. Pence would be better that Trump or Paul Ryan would be next.

    Getting to Paul Ryan would require Pence to go first or together with Trump though.
    It'd be political suicide for them to impeach him; a serious smoking gun *might* make a difference - recordings of him and Vlad discussing how to steal votes/selling out Ukraine even more/conniving to hide money, that kind of thing. Otherwise any GOP'er advocating for impeachment will be primaried out in a blink by some controllable stooge. I'm not convinced that short of an indictment by a grand jury of Trump himself, would he be impeached by Congress and even if he is, he'll fight it tooth and nail. It's the Don, he's not going to go quietly, he'll host a few more rallies during his impeachment proceedings to stir up his deplorables.

    He'd rather see the world in a smoking ruin than be seen to be a weakling and go away with his tail between his legs. Not the Trump way.


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    #7537
    Ozymandius2011
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    I would have thought that impeaching him (soon) and replacing him with a true Republican would be good for them. Pence would be better that Trump or Paul Ryan would be next.

    Getting to Paul Ryan would require Pence to go first or together with Trump though.
    If they remove him they will be primaried and would lose the less religious moderate voters Trump brought over in the Rust Belt.

    Analogically we are now in 1993 when the Clinton admin was beset by a series of failed Cabinet nominees (Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood), the William Sessiosn sacking as FBI Director, failed healthcare reform, and lots of smoke but no fire about Whitewater.


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    #7538
    wonderfullife
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,924 ✭✭✭wonderfullife


    Igotadose wrote: »
    It'd be political suicide for them to impeach him; ...

    See there's the interesting thing about Republicans.

    The same reality existed during Nixon but when the evidence got near the smoking gun level it was the Republicans who acted to get rid of him. Republicans generally like to be the flag-waving, chest-thumping, constitution-cherishing types. As soon as it's obvious that Trump will cost them their own careers, only then will the Republicans pivot and try act like they're the patriots here.

    June 20th is the key date in this whole mess. If Jon Ossoff, a preppy, uppity, smarmy Democrat wins Georgia, that will be a game changer. If he can take a heavily GOP seat, then the rest of them will know that the gig is up with Trump. They'll move with speed then.

    I could see a scenario after an Ossoff win where you'll suddenly and miraculously have extremely damaging Trump material, possibly even non-related to Russia, leaked to the New York Times and Trump gone within weeks with the GOP taking the moral high ground.

    The only type of scandal I think that could affect his base is something like a tearful, emotional interview from some woman he was cheating on his wife with coming forward with solid evidence Trump pressured her into having an abortion.

    The Trump Cult don't care that he's up to his neck with Russian problems. They probably would care about some random abortion incident. The GOP don't care about Russia. They probably will care after June 20th if Ossoff wins.


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    #7539
    Ozymandius2011
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    wonderfullife wrote: »
    See there's the interesting thing about Republicans.

    The same reality existed during Nixon but when the evidence got near the smoking gun level it was the Republicans who acted to get rid of him. Republicans generally like to be the flag-waving, chest-thumping, constitution-cherishing types. As soon as it's obvious that Trump will cost them their own careers, only then will the Republicans pivot and try act like they're the patriots here.

    June 20th is the key date in this whole mess. If Jon Ossoff, a preppy, uppity, smarmy Democrat wins Georgia, that will be a game changer. If he can take a heavily GOP seat, then the rest of them will know that the gig is up with Trump. They'll move with speed then.

    I could see a scenario after an Ossoff win where you'll suddenly and miraculously have extremely damaging Trump material, possibly even non-related to Russia, leaked to the New York Times and Trump gone within weeks with the GOP taking the moral high ground.

    The only type of scandal I think that could affect his base is something like a tearful, emotional interview from some woman he was cheating on his wife with coming forward with solid evidence Trump pressured her into having an abortion.

    The Trump Cult don't care that he's up to his neck with Russian problems. They probably would care about some random abortion incident. The GOP don't care about Russia. They probably will care after June 20th if Ossoff wins.
    Nixon was at 27% approval ratings when he was on the way out. Trump in 40s in most polls. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell however are already in the 20s.


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    #7540
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,533 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    wonderfullife wrote: »
    See there's the interesting thing about Republicans.

    The same reality existed during Nixon but when the evidence got near the smoking gun level it was the Republicans who acted to get rid of him. Republicans generally like to be the flag-waving, chest-thumping, constitution-cherishing types. As soon as it's obvious that Trump will cost them their own careers, only then will the Republicans pivot and try act like they're the patriots here.

    June 20th is the key date in this whole mess. If Jon Ossoff, a preppy, uppity, smarmy Democrat wins Georgia, that will be a game changer. If he can take a heavily GOP seat, then the rest of them will know that the gig is up with Trump. They'll move with speed then.

    I could see a scenario after an Ossoff win where you'll suddenly and miraculously have extremely damaging Trump material, possibly even non-related to Russia, leaked to the New York Times and Trump gone within weeks with the GOP taking the moral high ground.

    The only type of scandal I think that could affect his base is something like a tearful, emotional interview from some woman he was cheating on his wife with coming forward with solid evidence Trump pressured her into having an abortion.

    The Trump Cult don't care that he's up to his neck with Russian problems. They probably would care about some random abortion incident. The GOP don't care about Russia. They probably will care after June 20th if Ossoff wins.

    Democrats held the house when Nixon resigned as I recall. I do agree, senior Republicans (Goldwater jumps to mind) did visit the WH and tell him to resign.

    I've been following the Ossoff campaign pretty regularly. The candidate he's running against was the one who ran Komen for the Cure until her anti-abortion agenda became obvious and there was a huge outcry against her. She's run for various offices in the past unsuccessfully, and is beatable, but she's got the GOP behind her, Ryan has stopped by to visit, this is an affluent tGOP enclave so more responsive to 'tax cut/small government' lies from the likes of Ryan. This will be a close race, a win for Ossoff will give the media something to run with. Wouldn't be surprised if Trump pays a visit there, too.

    Election is 20 June. The amount of money being thrown around for this and the Montana special election is record-setting, until next year when the full midterms happen. I think even if Ossoff wins, he gets to run again in 2018 and probably has to fight off Handel one more time.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/11/outside-money-floods-house-special-elections-georgia-and-montana/101557212/

    The DNC, as seems to be their thing, got to the Ossoff election late. Who knows if a bit more money spent by them would've pushed Ossoff over the top. DNC is unimpressive, to say the least. Though they don't have the billionaire social-media weaponizers like the RNC had backing them up (demfad's pointed them out repeatedly)


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    #7541
    Billy86
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    wonderfullife wrote: »
    June 20th is the key date in this whole mess. If Jon Ossoff, a preppy, uppity, smarmy Democrat wins Georgia, that will be a game changer. If he can take a heavily GOP seat, then the rest of them will know that the gig is up with Trump. They'll move with speed then.
    I personally doubt he will, but he does have a chance, especially after the judge not allowing Republicans to block people from registering to vote, and there is an interesting other point worth noting - by June 20th, the students will be back from college which in the event of a dead heat could tip the scales.

    Wouldn't hold my breath on it, but it would be hugely telling because the GOP have held that seat for 38 years/21 elections in a row.

    I don't agree that the turnaround would be as immediate as you say, as a good few in the GOP look like they themselves might be in a lot of trouble with the FBI re funding in the very near future also, but I do think we'll start to see a good few turn quite quickly if they are not involved in that mess, because if Ossoff wins it could be the start of their gerrymandering over the last few years beginning to turn on them and seeing seats fall like dominoes. That's the thing with gerrymandering - because it dictates winning lots of districts by slim margins, if you wind up messing up badly enough you can cost yourself so, so, so many more seats than if you had never gerrymandered at all.


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    #7542
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,453 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    It's a thing a lot of Trump/GOP supporters don't get. The margin is tight in many situations, and any slippage in the percentages has a massive effect.


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    #7543
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,423 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Water John wrote: »
    It's a thing a lot of Trump/GOP supporters don't get. The margin is tight in many situations, and any slippage in the percentages has a massive effect.

    They do get it.

    There are two ways to win close elections,
    1. to get more voters than the other side,
    2. to stop the other peoples voters from turning up.

    Trump's 'voter fraud' commission is going to make voting much more difficult for the kinds of people who won't vote for Trump.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-voter-fraud-commission-vice-chair-kris-kobach-voter-suppression-sued-four-times-a7732346.html

    The republicans have been dipping their toes into election fraud since G W Bush and they've gotten away with it so far, so they keep upping the ante


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    #7544
    demfad
    Registered Users Posts: 3,182 ✭✭✭demfad


    Ozymandius2011 wrote: »
    Manafort has been prominent in Republican politics as a consultant for 40 years. He managed Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagans Conventions in 1976 and 1980. It was not out of the ordinary a Republican nominee would have hired him, and so far his Russian ties are pre-Maidan. As Tallyrand said, "treason is a matter of dates", and noone cared about these ties until Russia and America fell out over Ukraine. The world of business doesnt stop when politicians fall out.
    No one cared much about him till he was Trump campaign manager. Then his past and current connections to oligarchs loyal to Putin and communications with FSB men came into focus. His previous abd currnt crimes are catching up with him now.


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    #7545
    demfad
    Registered Users Posts: 3,182 ✭✭✭demfad


    Kitsunegari wrote: »
    Its incredible that you have the nerve to accuse other people of spreading misinformation while you post your conspiracy theories. Akex Jones would be proud of that post if he was a Democrat.

    As well as many reputable people on SM announcing their sources were telling them about Grand Juries for weeks, traditional media and politicians now acknowledge their existence in Virg East district and NY south district at least.


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    #7546
    demfad
    Registered Users Posts: 3,182 ✭✭✭demfad


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    I would have thought that impeaching him (soon) and replacing him with a true Republican would be good for them. Pence would be better that Trump or Paul Ryan would be next.

    Getting to Paul Ryan would require Pence to go first or together with Trump though.
    Pence and Ryan are up to their necks in Kremlin gate. Orrin hatch is first non criminal in line


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    #7547
    Ozymandius2011
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    demfad wrote: »
    As well as many reputable people on SM announcing their sources were telling them about Grand Juries for weeks, traditional media and politicians now acknowledge their existence in Virg East district and NY south district at least.
    Thats true. But its not clear they are all part of the Russia-probe. The Strategic Campaign Group that was raided for example, had been sued by ex GOP Virginia AG Ken Cuchinelli in 2014 over non-received campaign fundraising.


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    #7548
    Kitsunegari
    Closed Accounts Posts: 314 ✭✭Kitsunegari


    demfad wrote: »
    As well as many reputable people on SM announcing their sources were telling them about Grand Juries for weeks, traditional media and politicians now acknowledge their existence in Virg East district and NY south district at least.

    Who are these reputable sources? What is your post trying to prove?


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    #7549
    demfad
    Registered Users Posts: 3,182 ✭✭✭demfad


    Ozymandius2011 wrote: »
    Thats true. But its not clear they are all part of the Russia-probe. The Strategic Campaign Group that was raided for example, had been sued by ex GOP Virginia AG Ken Cuchinelli in 2014 over non-received campaign fundraising.
    The Virginia GJ has subpoenad evidence from associates of Mike Flynn. The FBI made no comment on the target of the raid the other night. The company handles fundraising for many GOP politicians including those backed by Russia gate front and centre Robert Mercer.
    Sure the company mentioned a case in 2014 but then they would.
    Separate commentators with separate multiple sources who first revealed the existance of the GJs weejs before traditional media are saying
    The dozens of FBI and US Marshall vans that raided were for the Virginia GJ , not a local issue. They are also saying 26 sealed indictments. Also that on Thursday POTUS received a letter from SCOTUS saying ANYONE obstructing these GJs will be immediately arrested


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    #7550
    Ozymandius2011
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    demfad wrote: »
    The Virginia GJ has subpoenad evidence from associates of Mike Flynn. The FBI made no comment on the target of the raid the other night. The company handles fundraising for many GOP politicians including those backed by Russia gate front and centre Robert Mercer.
    Sure the company mentioned a case in 2014 but then they would.
    Separate commentators with separate multiple sources who first revealed the existance of the GJs weejs before traditional media are saying
    The dozens of FBI and US Marshall vans that raided were for the Virginia GJ , not a local issue. They are also saying 26 sealed indictments. Also that on Thursday POTUS received a letter from SCOTUS saying ANYONE obstructing these GJs will be immediately arrested
    What does GJ mean.

    My personal view is that the Mike Flynn case is about other stuff like not registering as a foreign agent.


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    #7551
    Really Interested
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,554 ✭✭✭Really Interested


    Ozymandius2011 wrote: »
    What does GJ mean.

    My personal view is that the Mike Flynn case is about other stuff like not registering as a foreign agent.

    Grand Juries.


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    #7552
    Ozymandius2011
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Really Interested wrote: »
    Grand Juries.
    Will be very tough finding one that isnt influenced by partisanship in this climate.


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    #7553
    Really Interested
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,554 ✭✭✭Really Interested


    Ozymandius2011 wrote: »
    Will be very tough finding one that isnt influenced by partisanship in this climate.

    A grand jury does not decide guilt or innocence they only decide based on evidence presented if a trail should follow.

    http://criminal.findlaw.com/criminal-procedure/how-does-a-grand-jury-work.html


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    #7554
    demfad
    Registered Users Posts: 3,182 ✭✭✭demfad


    Ozymandius2011 wrote: »
    What does GJ mean.

    My personal view is that the Mike Flynn case is about other stuff like not registering as a foreign agent.

    Grand jury. You realise Flynn has already asked for and been refused immunity in response for giving evidence in Trump Russia? There is also the small matter of lying to the FBI and exactly what he said to Kislyak. Also his lying about payments received from Russia and about lecturing FSB. There is alsi documents linking him to a young female Russian spy in Cambridge who called him ' general Misha'. He is linked to Cambridge analytical which emerged from Cambridge after Manafort pal Dmitri Furtash donated 6 million. And on it goes.
    The investigation is going for Trump via Flynn.


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    #7555
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,939 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Kitsunegari wrote: »
    Who are these reputable sources? What is your post trying to prove?

    Oh for Christ sake change the cd.


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    #7556
    Ozymandius2011
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Really Interested wrote: »
    A grand jury does not decide guilt or innocence they only decide based on evidence presented if a trail should follow.

    http://criminal.findlaw.com/criminal-procedure/how-does-a-grand-jury-work.html
    i know that

    Could be like Iran-Contra where the President gets benefit of doubt and underlings are tried.


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    #7557
    ECO_Mental
    Registered Users Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭ECO_Mental


    Akrasia wrote: »
    They do get it.

    There are two ways to win close elections,
    1. to get more voters than the other side,
    2. to stop the other peoples voters from turning up.

    Trump's 'voter fraud' commission is going to make voting much more difficult for the kinds of people who won't vote for Trump.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-voter-fraud-commission-vice-chair-kris-kobach-voter-suppression-sued-four-times-a7732346.html

    The republicans have been dipping their toes into election fraud since G W Bush and they've gotten away with it so far, so they keep upping the ante

    Also the massive gerrymandering the GOP have been at for the last ten years which helps the congress and state seats. There is a supreme court case on at the moment which will hopefully turn this around. Thing is it's difficult enough thing to prove to the courts technically but there is this dude who has come up with a formula to prove it

    http://www.salon.com/2017/03/26/meet-the-man-who-may-end-gerrymandering-a-retired-wisconsin-law-professors-supreme-court-case-could-save-democracy/

    6.1kWp south facing, South of Cork City



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    #7558
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    ECO_Mental wrote: »
    Also the massive gerrymandering the GOP have been at for the last ten years which helps the congress and state seats. There is a supreme court case on at the moment which will hopefully turn this around. Thing is it's difficult enough thing to prove to the courts technically but there is this dude who has come up with a formula to prove it

    http://www.salon.com/2017/03/26/meet-the-man-who-may-end-gerrymandering-a-retired-wisconsin-law-professors-supreme-court-case-could-save-democracy/

    There was also a very important supreme court decision a few (ten?) years ago that decided in favour of non-partisan electoral commisions to decide district boundaries. I believe the decision only applied to California and Arizona, but importantly, it would apply to any other states that challenge their states partisan gerrymandering. It will just take time though.


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    #7559
    aloyisious
    Registered Users Posts: 11,693 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Igotadose wrote: »
    In my opinion, what the Don is doing is putting the US into 'constant-2016-campaign-mode' since that worked for him. Hence, the endless attention to HRC, the rallies, and the same old campaign themes over and over again: big bad Media, Make America Great, etc. Nothing new from him, he had a winning formula and will milk it ad nauseum. Part of the strategy is to polarize the electorate, hence the lying and dissembling and pathetic surrogates looking bad before the cameras - again, this worked for him in the campaign, why stop now?

    And, what's convenient for his acolytes in the tGOP is that the real business of government - to govern - is, at best, getting short shrift if not actively failing. He's ensured attention to the tGOP with the AHCA, which in some form will pass, perhaps they'll put back some of the Medicaid cuts, perhaps some more realistic funding for previous conditions, perhaps not, but I did say the second version of the AHCA would pass Congress and it did. Points for the Don.

    You see it here on boards, anyone with even a slightly pro-Trump position eventually ends up in a name-calling/motive questioning fight with the other posters. All part of the ongoing campaign, they enjoyed doing this through the 2016 campaign and some of the pro-Trumpers (even those that claim not to support Trump) are still enjoying 'getting a rise out of people.' They're not redeemable in my book, answering them is kind of pointless since they're still enjoying the 2016 campaign. It'll be this way through 2020.

    The next thing we'll see from Trump, is assaults on potential opposition candidates. What'd derail him somewhat, is if a GOP candidate steps up to run against him. I doubt that'll happen though, they're too scared of Trump.

    I don't have a good recommendation yet on how to keep Trump from getting reelected. If the Dems don't make inroads in 2018 in getting back Congress and especially some state houses, good luck in 2020. One possibility is that Trump might have had it by 2020 and steps aside, that's a slim hope and "Hope is not a strategy."

    And, until there's indictments from the various investigations, impeachment's a pipe-dream. He's impeachable *today* but the tGOP is getting way too much out of him to even consider it. 2018 elections can make a difference - time will tell.

    Yeah, can see that with prospective future, or carry-over candidates from the recent past. They'll wait for Don to fatally damage himself, or create even more dissent from republican votes about him and get too much for the wolfpack, before they show their hands in early 2019.


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    #7560
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,533 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    This is enjoyable: A Democratic congressman attended a Republican Congressman's town hall meeting - where said tGOP'er didn't show up. Apparently had a grand time of it. Others are following suit, holding town halls to talk about Trumpcare in districts where the Republicans won't show up. Very clever of them. Still, the Democrats need more than 'we're not the GOP' to have success in 2018. There's sizzle there, but no steak.

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/05/sean-patrick-maloney-john-faso-town-hall


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    #7561
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    Igotadose wrote: »
    Still, the Democrats need more than 'we're not the GOP' to have success in 2018. There's sizzle there, but no steak.

    As the reality of the healthcare repeal really sinks in a lot more people are going to start getting angry at Republicans.


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