€200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Division

I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.

Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.

Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.

I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.

I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill

*This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example.

*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.

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Betting Round 1:

English Premier League
Hull v West Brom
Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
Stake: €67

English Premier League
Swansea v Crystal Palace
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
Stake: €56

English Premier League
Man Utd v West Ham
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
Stake: €77

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Results - Betting Round 1

Hull 1-1 West Brom
Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace
Man Utd 1-1 West Ham

Current Balance: €282

mickmackmcgoo

Good start. I'll join in with you on your next selections for a bit of fun

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Betting Round 2:

English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
Stake: €82

Spanish Primera Division
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
Stake: €102

Champions League
Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
Stake: €98

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Results - Betting Round 2

Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund

Current Balance: €294

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Betting Round 3:

English Premier League
Everton v Arsenal
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
Stake: €81

English Premier League
West Ham v Burnley
Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
Stake: €108

English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Man Utd
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
Stake: €105

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Results - Betting Round 3

Everton 2-1 Arsenal
West Ham 1-0 Burnley
Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

Current Balance: €406

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Betting Round 4:

English Premier League
Tottenham v Burnley
Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
Stake: €99

English Premier League
West Ham v Hull
Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €152

English Premier League
Everton v Liverpool
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
Stake: €155

kopite davo

are you still doing it?

wush06

Also interested

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Results - Betting Round 4

Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
West Ham 1-0 Hull
Everton 0-1 Liverpool

Current Balance: €190

English Premier League
Everton v Man City
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
Stake: €58

English Premier League
Swansea v Arsenal
Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
Stake: €64

Spanish La Liga
Sevilla v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
Stake: €68

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Results - Betting Round 5

Swansea 0-4 Arsenal
Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid
Everton 4-0 Man City

Current Balance: €197

German Bundesliga
Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7%
Stake: €62

English Premier League
Man City v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €58

English Premier League
West Brom v Sunderland
Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6%
Stake: €77

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Results - Betting Round 6

Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
Man City 2-2 Tottenham
West Brom 2-0 Sunderland

Current Balance: €290

German Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3%
Stake: €102

Spanish La Liga
Espanyol v Sevilla
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €81

Spanish La Liga
Betis v Barcelona
Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8%
Stake: €107

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Results - Betting Round 7

Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla
Betis 1-1 Barcelona

Current Balance: €138

English Premier League
Middlesbrough v West Brom
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred
Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7%
Stake: €43

English Premier League
Liverpool v Chelsea
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill
Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €36

English Premier League
Man Utd v Hull
Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1%
Stake: €52

Hollister11

Interesting read so far.

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Results - Betting Round 8

Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
Man Utd 0-0 Hull

Current Balance: €137

English Premier League
Stoke v Crystal Palace
Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3%
Stake: €53

English Premier League
Liverpool v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral
Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6%
Stake: €39

German Bundesliga
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1%
Stake: €45

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Results - Betting Round 9

Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

Current Balance: €69

Champions League
Benfica v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €22

Champions League
Real Madrid v Napoli
Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4%
Stake: €25

Champions League
PSG v Barcelona
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7%
Stake: €22

Division

I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high.

To quote my opening post:

"This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example."

I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.

Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Can I ask how you are working out your expected value? Just interested in what sort of system you're taking your information from?

Division

Its a personal opinion. I assign a percentage chance to each team scoring a exact number of goals based on many factors (mainly my experience with the league which is why I don't cover multiple sports and focus on a couple of leagues) which then provide percentages for various outcomes and the associated odds using excel.