Italian constitutional referendum

Manach

As per the Wiki
"
A constitutional referendum will be held in Italy on Sunday 4 December 2016.Voters will be asked whether they approve of amending the Italian Constitution to reform the appointment and powers of the Parliament of Italy, as well as the partition of powers of State, Regions, and administrative entities.
" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_constitutional_referendum,_2016#Reactions_and_criticism


My understanding of Italian politics is marginal. What I have read though is that a failure to carry this referendum would be regarded as at an EU level a de facto vote of no confidence in that institution. (http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/07/04/484187757/after-brexit-another-european-referendum-looms)

Thus I wondering on posters' opinion on this, as that scenario might be an overreaction to the vote?

Nody

It's Italy and it's 65 governments since WW2; if every gesture don't remind you of Romeo and Juliet's last scene it's not dramatic enough so of course the PM had to state he'd step down if it fails. Another politician who thinks he got a stronger hand and wants to force voters his way by threatening to throw the toys out of the tram if he does not get what he wants. The simple fact is Italian politicians make Irish independents look genuine honest and skilful by comparison; the number of things they ignored to fix from employment rules, banks, bribes (and talking daily bribes to get the department to issue a document you need; not cosa nostra style bribing) etc. is staggering and Italy will continue to be a drag for any company trying to operate there. They have potential but they make Capital Hill vested interest look like school children by comparison how tightly they got their politicians wrapped up in local politiks and refusal to change things to how the world operates today (not only laws but processes etc. in their own departments as well).

Peregrinus

And yet it works. The over the long term (since,, say, 1960) the GDP growth rate of poor old coalition-riddled, corrupt, inefficient Italy has comfortably outperformed that of either the UK or the US.

expectationlost

Manach wrote: »

As per the Wiki
"
A constitutional referendum will be held in Italy on Sunday 4 December 2016.Voters will be asked whether they approve of amending the Italian Constitution to reform the appointment and powers of the Parliament of Italy, as well as the partition of powers of State, Regions, and administrative entities.
" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_constitutional_referendum,_2016#Reactions_and_criticism


My understanding of Italian politics is marginal. What I have read though is that a failure to carry this referendum would be regarded as at an EU level a de facto vote of no confidence in that institution. (http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/07/04/484187757/after-brexit-another-european-referendum-looms)

Thus I wondering on posters' opinion on this, as that scenario might be an overreaction to the vote?

what has it go to do with the EU

Manach

The second link and what I read elsewhere link a failure of this referendum to a loss of confidence of the Italian state and have a knock on effect on the various banks: which in turn would undermine the Euro's stability.

Again that is one interpretation and instead another would be this vote might not have any impact. Hence the RFC.

oscarBravo

expectationlost wrote: »

what has it go to do with the EU

Pretty much nothing whatsoever, but the party cheerleading the opposition to the referendum is also anti-EU, so will claim a victory as a vote of no confidence in the EU.

That, of course, makes no sense whatsoever, but it seems that as far as politics goes - certainly from an alt-right perspective - logical thinking is a thing of the past.

Palmach

oscarBravo wrote: »

Pretty much nothing whatsoever, but the party cheerleading the opposition to the referendum is also anti-EU, so will claim a victory as a vote of no confidence in the EU.

That, of course, makes no sense whatsoever, but it seems that as far as politics goes - certainly from an alt-right perspective - logical thinking is a thing of the past.

It has to do with the Eurozone in that if Renzi loses he says hewill resign. That could trigger even more instability in the Eurozone with Italian banks mired in debt. Indirectly it would be a blow to the Eurozone.

KingBrian2

Only two more days until Italians go to the polls to decide on PM Matteo Renzi's new controversial reform laws to reduce the size of gvt. Anyone prepared to guess the outcome of the result. Likely are we to see the Trump effect in action. Although previous gvt have tried to bring in this law with little success. Like here in Ireland with the water charges. So will the Eurosceptics be out in force and another fist to the establishment or will these new laws actually get through.

ancapailldorcha

Threads merged.

Capt'n Midnight

Exit polls
-
La7 55%-59% NO ( 41-45% yes)

RAI 54%-58% NO

Capt'n Midnight

Update, bigger exit poll +/- 3%

No 56-60%

AllGunsBlazing

They'll be on the phone from Brussels instructing Renzi that under no circumstances should he fall on his sword over this.

FrancieBrady

AllGunsBlazing wrote: »

They'll be on the phone from Brussels instructing Renzi that under no circumstances should he fall on his sword over this.

He has.

Yourself isit

Peregrinus wrote: »

And yet it works. The over the long term (since,, say, 1960) the GDP growth rate of poor old coalition-riddled, corrupt, inefficient Italy has comfortably outperformed that of either the UK or the US.

It's collapsed since the Euro. And much of its industry is destroyed.

mahoganygas

Peregrinus wrote:

And yet it works. The over the long term (since,, say, 1960) the GDP growth rate of poor old coalition-riddled, corrupt, inefficient Italy has comfortably outperformed that of either the UK or the US.

Since joining the eurozone 17 years ago Italian GDP has grown 3%.

Not per annum. 3% total.

Capt'n Midnight

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38203813

The euro fell sharply against the dollar after Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi suffered a heavy defeat in Sunday's referendum.

... it rebounded from that low and a short while ago was at $1.0563, still down 1% from Friday's close.
...

"Either markets are becoming immune to political risk, or they are taking the view that the Italian issue will be a slow-burner, even if the president can't form a government, he still has 70 days to try, and that seems quite far away at this stage,"

Peregrinus

mahoganygas wrote: »

Since joining the eurozone 17 years ago Italian GDP has grown 3%.

Not per annum. 3% total.

That might say something about the euro, rather than about Italy's political culture, which is what Nody seemed to be suggesting

But in fact it might not even say that much about the euro either. Italy joined the euro on its launch in 1999, after which GDP rose strongly for 9 straight years. It then fell very sharply in 2009, fell again in 2010, recovered somewhat in 2010, fell again in 2012, bumbled along for a couple of years, and then fell again in 2015.

The upshot of all this may be - I'll take your word for it - that Italian GDP (in real terms) is only 3% higher than in 1999. But this is fairly clearly an artifact of the global financial crisis. If this tells us anything about (a) Italian political culture, or (b) the euro, or (c) the combination of the two, it tells us that they haven't served Italy well in the context of the GFC. But the same data also suggests that they served Italy very well before that - in the case of the political culture, for decades before that.

KingBrian2

Peregrinus wrote: »

That might say something about the euro, rather than about Italy's political culture, which is what Nody seemed to be suggesting

But in fact it might not even say that much about the euro either. Italy joined the euro on its launch in 1999, after which GDP rose strongly for 9 straight years. It then fell very sharply in 2009, fell again in 2010, recovered somewhat in 2010, fell again in 2012, bumbled along for a couple of years, and then fell again in 2015.

The upshot of all this may be - I'll take your word for it - that Italian GDP (in real terms) is only 3% higher than in 1999. But this is fairly clearly an artifact of the global financial crisis. If this tells us anything about (a) Italian political culture, or (b) the euro, or (c) the combination of the two, it tells us that they haven't served Italy well in the context of the GFC. But the same data also suggests that they served Italy very well before that - in the case of the political culture, for decades before that.

The simple reason for that was that the euro rules were never applied in many countries ourselves included. Nations within the € got away with too much credit for too long. The crisis that came demonstrated the public finances had been stretched too much. The current opposition in Italy want to continue to spend in order to make the Nation healthy again and that does not cover changing the political climate and allow the private sector to flourish. Their talking about retreading arguments about communism, socialism and capitalism which were sound debates in the 80's not in the 00's. The world moves on. Does anyone in Italy actually look out for the economic well being of the Italian state? Sure does not look like it since they voted against a law that would make gvt more effective.