Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

ninebeanrows

Pretty mouthwatering EC this morning for coldies. Quite a marked change to what was expected by many in early Jan

ArKl0w

The ECM at 240hrs (see attached) would evolve into a Nov Dec 2010 solution ,that lobe of vortex is going to come crashing into the North Sea with very icy air flooding down the Irish Sea in a northeasterly eventually burying us all in snow *
See attached

* way too far out to be accurate but plausible

Rock Lesnar

The BBC forecast said yesterday, that there'll be a battle between Cold and Mild air next weekend and the thinking is the Cold will win out, but its uncertain how much wintry weather it will bring with it

Gonzo

doesnt look so good now, that plunge of cold looks to be going down north sea mainly into the lowlands, germany, and skirting the eastern half of UK with Ireland in the mild.

fred funk }{

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

The BBC forecast said yesterday, that there'll be a battle between Cold and Mild air next weekend and the thinking is the Cold will win out, but its uncertain how much wintry weather it will bring with it

We always lose out when it's marginal.

JCX BXC

Depressingly boring weather for the next week it seems.

Rock Lesnar

fred funk }{ wrote: »

We always lose out when it's marginal.

True, but as long as its not raining, i don't care what the weather is like, i'll gladly take days like today anytime we get them

km79

JCX BXC wrote: »

Depressingly boring weather for the next week it seems.

Looks great to me

PokeHerKing

JCX BXC wrote:

Depressingly boring weather for the next week it seems.

What's the circle jerk over on netweather about then?

Donegal Storm

PokeHerKing wrote: »

What's the circle jerk over on netweather about then?

Probably the following week, I haven't followed netweather in a few years now but they always had a tendency to get overexcited. No point taking anything after new year's seriously for another 3 days or so

ArKl0w

Gonzo wrote: »

doesnt look so good now, that plunge of cold looks to be going down north sea mainly into the lowlands, germany, and skirting the eastern half of UK with Ireland in the mild.

It's a significant displacement of a chunk of polar vortex Gonzo
Last time I saw one of those in that same area was in Nov Dec 2010
It only went down the North Sea then too but we all know what happened next

It's 10 days away,let's see if it makes it to T-218 on the 12z ECM which will be out around 630 this evening?

This discussion is usually in the FI thread but I may aswell say that those lobes normally dive into Russia and Eastern Europe or don't dive at all,so if this becomes a pattern,have you got your winter tyres?

ArKl0w

ArKl0w wrote: »

It's a significant displacement of a chunk of polar vortex Gonzo
Last time I saw one of those in that same area was in Nov Dec 2010
It only went down the North Sea then too but we all know what happened next

It's 10 days away,let's see if it makes it to T-218 on the 12z ECM which will be out around 630 this evening?

This discussion is usually in the FI thread but I may aswell say that those lobes normally dive into Russia and Eastern Europe or don't dive at all,so if this becomes a pattern,have you got your winter tyres?

And it didn't!
No trend on the ECM anyway,its output for the same time frame is COMPLETELY different
As you were nothing to see here yet

pedigree 6

ArKl0w wrote: »

And it didn't!
No trend on the ECM anyway,its output for the same time frame is COMPLETELY different
As you were nothing to see here yet

Wohoo.:D
I changed my mind.
I don't mind snow in December but this mild dry weather just reminds you of spring and I like it.
We had our winter and snow back in November.
So come on mild dry spring weather. Bring it on. You can do it.:P

Clonmel1000

Great forecast for the rest of 2016. Dry settled weather bright and getting mild bring it in.

kittyn

Bring on the cold more like ....... there should be enough mild weather in spring !!

JCX BXC

I certainly didn't have my snow

kittyn

JCX BXC wrote: »

I certainly didn't have my snow

Yet patience is a virtue...... charts looking better and it looks like some semblance of a trans is starting to appear ;-)

Clonmel1000

JCX BXC wrote: »

I certainly didn't have my snow

Thankfully makes life easier for everyone. People are on holidays visiting shopping etc.

pedigree 6

JCX BXC wrote: »

I certainly didn't have my snow

Mountainyman got plenty.
So that'll do us.:D;)

nacho libre

Snow will teach you a lesson yet, ye little pup, for turning your back on it:P

pedigree 6

nacho libre wrote: »

Snow will teach you a lesson yet, ye little pup, for turning your back on it:P

It looks like we are definitely in for a cold snap from next weekend.
Some places will see the white stuff falling from the sky.
Que the comparisons of 1947 and 2009/2010.
Forget comparisons it'll be what it'll be.

On a completely different note. The sun just had a run of 3 or 4 spotless days.
It seems sleepy time for the sun.

dublinbusdude

Link about it?

JCX BXC

dublinbusdude wrote: »

Link about it?

About what? They flagged more than one thing in their post.

Why are half the posts on boards asking for a fecking link? At least the weather forum had been mostly immune to it! It's not hard to contribute something.

This isn't directed at the user above but more of a general sight.

ArKl0w

pedigree 6 wrote: »

It looks like we are definitely in for a cold snap from next weekend.
Some places will see the white stuff falling from the sky.
Que the comparisons of 1947 and 2009/2010.
Forget comparisons it'll be what it'll be.

.

A little bit of a one maybe
What Bastardi and Hugo were focusing on would have been into the 2nd week of January,a more sustained deeper event
The pointers towards that are weak enough at the moment in our neck of the woods so far

dublinbusdude

Through there was one

pedigree 6

dublinbusdude wrote: »

Link about it?

Just follow spaceweather.com and then any of the weather sites.
I think there might be a sticky with a good few of them listed in this weather section of boards.

pedigree 6

ArKl0w wrote: »

A little bit of a one maybe
What Bastardi and Hugo were focusing on would have been into the 2nd week of January,a more sustained deeper event
The pointers towards that are weak enough at the moment in our neck of the woods so far

I think that was more doomsday blizzard type of stuff.
A bit like the eye candy that our storms were to be.
Then we get disappointed when it doesn't happen.

But it looks like a bit of a cool down is on the cards. Nothing dramatic though.

But sure who knows. You'll know roughly five days beforehand.:p

Meteorite58

Great bright sunny day here near Tralee. light SE'ly Breeze

Barometer 1036.3 hPa Steady

pedigree 6

pedigree 6 wrote: »

I think that was more doomsday blizzard type of stuff.
A bit like the eye candy that our storms were to be.
Then we get disappointed when it doesn't happen.

But it looks like a bit of a cool down is on the cards. Nothing dramatic though.

But sure who knows. You'll know roughly five days beforehand.:p

Even if High Pressure does get stuck over us and doesn't migrate west and north and joins up with a Greenland High, we are still looking at cold frosty nights ahead. I think we just got a taster of how cold it can get in the last spell of frosty weather. I'll throw this in as well (:D). With the activity lower in the sun it allows the upper atmosphere to cool down and shrink slightly meaning that its easier for night time ground temperatures to lower more than if the sun were more active (during anticyclonic conditions).

I'm looking for warmer weather to grow my grass and at this time (with the forecast) I can't see it. It's either an anticyclone to the west of us giving a northerly or easterly flow with possible snow off the irish sea or centred over us and maybe ridging into Europe but still giving frosts. So either way it's not grass growing weather.:P

ArKl0w

I hear on the grape vine that most of the ecm ensemble members tonight have the jet stream barrelling into the Med from about Jan 5th,mid Atlantic high, ridges to Greenland,highs in Greenland,a high across the middle of Europe,with the only place mobile that our weather can come from being eventually the north east in the form of balls of polar vortices fired in our direction as if lasers in a retro game of space invaders,How's pedigree 6's remaining grass going to survive that under the weight of ensuing white stuff never mind grow at all does anyone know?