Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

pedigree 6

ArKl0w wrote: »

I hear on the grape vine that most of the ecm ensemble members tonight have the jet stream barrelling into the Med from about Jan 5th,mid Atlantic high, ridges to Greenland,highs in Greenland,a high across the middle of Europe,with the only place mobile that our weather can come from being eventually the north east in the form of balls of polar vortices fired in our direction as if lasers in a retro game of space invaders,How's pedigree 6's remaining grass going to survive that under the weight of ensuing white stuff never mind grow at all does anyone know?

I'll believe it when I see it.:pac:

munsterlegend

ArKl0w wrote: »

I hear on the grape vine that most of the ecm ensemble members tonight have the jet stream barrelling into the Med from about Jan 5th,mid Atlantic high, ridges to Greenland,highs in Greenland,a high across the middle of Europe,with the only place mobile that our weather can come from being eventually the north east in the form of balls of polar vortices fired in our direction as if lasers in a retro game of space invaders,How's pedigree 6's remaining grass going to survive that under the weight of ensuing white stuff never mind grow at all does anyone know?

Read on NW that the German met have given a thumbs up to the the cold air spreading west in the next week or 2. Will be interesting to watch.

JCX BXC

Chances of a roaring Atlantic are slimming! Although apocalyptic snowfall is unlikely, it seems guaranteed that we'll at least get a phase of cold frosty weather!

Lucreto

JCX BXC wrote: »

Chances of a roaring Atlantic are slimming! Although apocalyptic snowfall is unlikely, it seems guaranteed that we'll at least get a phase of cold frosty weather!

I would take that over the mild muck over the last few winters. Once there is no snow on the fifth of January. I have an interview that day.

Oscar Bravo

Met eireann sticking their necks out and going for a short cold snap followed by mild south westerly flow

ArKl0w

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met eireann sticking their necks out and going for a short cold snap followed by mild south westerly flow

Yes that because that's what the latest 00Z ecm shows
They could be right
However in such uncertainty,that's their biggest downfall
I've often seen them do a farming forecast Sunday based on an ECM run,only to be ridiculously completely wrong
Sadly they'll never learn when to stay quiet or rather how to introduce uncertainty into their forecasts
This week would be good

nacho libre

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met eireann sticking their necks out and going for a short cold snap followed by mild south westerly flow

Should the current upstream pattern hold, this is the vortex weakened on the Canadian side, and heading more towards Siberia, then any milder flow may well be short lived, as there is less energy going upstream, which increases the chances of developing favourable heights in the Atlantic for Ireland. We are not seeing any strong signal for a raging Atlantic flow anyway. However, it maybe that we end up being too close to any high, and continental Europe gets all the cold in the longer term. As black briar said Met Eireann should be more cautious.

ArKl0w

I've posted a chart over on the FI thread but suffice to say,steady as she goes,ducks are rowing up with tonight's ECM but can we keep the foxes away,I'd say so?

mickger844posts

Both ECM and GFS showing similar output with a few very cold days to start the year. After that a less cold interlude before a reload of deeper cold. The cold to start the year looks nailed on at this stage. After that is still uncertain but encouraging signals and no real sign of a roaring Atlantic returning anytime soon. I always say get the cold in first then the finer details will work themselves out.
So as it stands plenty to keep us interested.

Clonmel1000

Posters here calling for met eireann to be more cautious even allowing for their national remit is wonderful in its irony.

pad199207

Some interest for New Years Day

mickger844posts

pad199207 wrote: »

Some interest for New Years Day

Some back edge snow with the front slowing down. Certainly interesting

Rebelbrowser

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Posters here calling for met eireann to be more cautious even allowing for their national remit is wonderful in its irony.

In fairness the poster saying this about ME isnt one for hyperbole. Nor is it cautiousness he is criticising, its a perception that ME sometimes parrot the latest ECM run as if its gospel. I think there is an element of truth to that criticism.

Clonmel1000

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

In fairness the poster saying this about ME isnt one for hyperbole. Nor is it cautiousness he is criticising, its a perception that ME sometimes parrot the latest ECM run as if its gospel. I think there is an element of truth to that criticism.

I accept that point entirely actually.

I still think my own point is worth making though.

JanuarySnowstor

06z showing significant backedge snow new years morning.
Met eireann quote last night 'turning cooler new years day'.
I always thought cool was a term should be used in Summer not when the country is under -8 uppers and it's snowing.
With a strong northerly wind I would stretch that to FREEZING COLD!

Reckless Abandonment

Let's go it lives up to your name

ArKl0w

High ground snow (and areas adjacent eg parts of South Dublin) is possible on that front on current output

ArKl0w

Looking further ahead,quite an amount and growing in number of ecm ensemble members are gone very cold beyond next week which is probably why Ian Ferguson (UK Met) posted the following,by colder ,he's surely referring to colder than day one or two of January,which is a good sign if it's snow you're looking for? He's not one for veering away from met office guidance

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/814407460370968576

kittyn

What a run ....... here is hoping the esp backs it up and we can give 2010 a run for its money 😊

Gonzo

this time around we need something proper, we've had our cold, dry and frosty spell already late autumn and there's been plenty of cold atlantic outbreaks delivering SFA to most of the country over last 6 years. Time for some proper widespread snowy action in the middle of winter when it matters most. We really don't want to add this winter to the long list of dead duck winters that followed 2010.

snowstorm445

Lovely charts, but way too far out to be of any substance IMO. Every single significant cold spell forecasted over the last few years has never gotten beyond the 5-7 day mark, we shouldn't let ourselves be led up the garden path again. Not saying it won't happen but I can imagine it being quite a bit less severe than being portrayed here if it does happen.

munsterlegend

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Lovely charts, but way too far out to be of any substance IMO. Every single significant cold spell forecasted over the last few years has never gotten beyond the 5-7 day mark, we shouldn't let ourselves be led up the garden path again. Not saying it won't happen but I can imagine it being quite a bit less severe than being portrayed here if it does happen.

That's true. If you adopt that attitude you won't be too disappointed if the holy grail of snow doesn't materialise. However there does seem to be cross model support for cold though still well in FI

fraxinus1

The hyperbole has started again. The charts are pure fantasy. This happens every year and within 2 or 3 days things go belly up. But of course the media picks up on the hype and before you know it there are people going around talking about the 'worst snowstorms in 50 years are on their way'. If the models are in agreement this day next week then maybe we might be onto something but until then it is pure FI.

ArKl0w

With respect,there's no hyperbole
People are only stating what those charts mean if verified
Umpteen times it said they're in lala land so far

Hyper alright though because there's something interesting to monitor:)

pad199207

A downgrade likely this afternoon. But how much of a downgrade will it be? It's too big of a cold signal to be dropped so suddenly.

q85dw7osi4lebg

pad199207 wrote: »

A downgrade upgrade likely this afternoon. But how much of a downgrade upgradewill it be? It's too big of a cold signal to be dropped so suddenly.

:pac:

pad199207

pedigree 6

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

06z showing significant backedge snow new years morning.
Met eireann quote last night 'turning cooler new years day'.
I always thought cool was a term should be used in Summer not when the country is under -8 uppers and it's snowing.
With a strong northerly wind I would stretch that to FREEZING COLD!

And what it looks like on a map.

nacho libre

If this cold spell does get realised,and we get a strong northerly flow at some point, I would dearly love a polar low to develop. it has been quite a while since we had one. the beauty of a polar low is nearly all the country gets a few hours of heavy snow fall out of it.

hotwhiskey

nacho libre wrote: »

If this cold spell does get realised,and we get a strong northerly flow at some point, I would dearly love a polar low to develop. it has been quite a while since we had one. the beauty of a polar low is nearly all the country gets a few hours of heavy snow fall out of it.

Dec 2001 was the last one I believe Nacho still have old photos somewhere. Well overdue something special from the North.