Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

fraxinus1

Have the charts been downgraded yet? Sorry but I find January a tough enough month after the Christmas etc and am hoping for some snowy weather to lift me. Going out for a walk with the dogs in the cold with snow underfoot, even just for one day, makes me so happy. I'm fearing all the talk of prolonged cold will be nothing more than talk.

Donegal Storm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Have the charts been downgraded yet? Sorry but I find January a tough enough month after the Christmas etc and am hoping for some snowy weather to lift me. Going out for a walk with the dogs in the cold with snow underfoot, even just for one day, makes me so happy. I'm fearing all the talk of prolonged cold will be nothing more than talk.

All the hype this morning is based off one gfs run, ECMWF isn't showing anything near as extreme so no point taking it seriously or overanalyzing it as it'll likely be totally different again in this evening's output. At the moment we're looking at a brief cold snap around new year's day then a few slightly miller days. After that anything could happen

snowstorm445

GFS round 200hours is amazing with a frigid easterly! Good run overall although the solution is markedly different to the 06z. UKMO is also far less conducive to cold which isn't great. Consistency is key.

PokeHerKing

I'm new to the weather watching game folks and as much as I love/hate the FI rollercoaster I'm just wondering why the models bother forecasting so far out if they're so unpredictable past 72 hours?

pedigree 6

The observation of Human psychology is brilliant today.

I was just looking at a weather commentator on youtube.
Usually they go looking for the most outlandish cold scenario to give viewers some hope.
Now with these charts appearing and showing ground air temperatures of -15 to -20 in Germany. It's frightening the bejaysus out of them and they're telling people to look at the milder charts and not loose the run of themselves.:p
Funny.:D

It does increasingly look like a cooler period and we could be swamped with snow.

Good viewing anyway.

cml387

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I'm new to the weather watching game folks and as much as I love/hate the FI rollercoaster I'm just wondering why the models bother forecasting so far out if they're so unpredictable past 72 hours?

They are just computer generated possibilities extrapolating from know conditions. It's only the choicest scenarios that get quoted here for drooling over.

pedigree 6

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I'm new to the weather watching game folks and as much as I love/hate the FI rollercoaster I'm just wondering why the models bother forecasting so far out if they're so unpredictable past 72 hours?

I wouldn't mind knowing the answer myself.
I'd say out to 10 days now is getting generally better now at least you see a trend.
I suppose they are still learning and adapting.
Plus this is the toughest region in the world for weather forecasting.

Villain

A northerly is nice but for those like me near the Eastern coast it usually is just annoying with dreams of a polar low that fail to materialize while you hope for a change in the winds to NE and pray you aren't in the IOM shadow, ah winter in Ireland as a weather model watcher

nagdefy

pedigree 6 wrote: »

The observation of Human psychology is brilliant today.

I was just looking at a weather commentator on youtube.
Usually they go looking for the most outlandish cold scenario to give viewers some hope.
Now with these charts appearing and showing ground air temperatures of -15 to -20 in Germany. It's frightening the bejaysus out of them and they're telling people to look at the milder charts and not loose the run of themselves.:p
Funny.:D

It does increasingly look like a cooler period and we could be swamped with snow.

Good viewing anyway.

Not weather related but i've been wondering where one gets animated gifs like the Michael Jackson Thriller one on the web Pedigree 6?

MidMan25

nagdefy wrote: »

Not weather related but i've been wondering where one gets animated gifs like the Michael Jackson Thriller one on the web Pedigree 6?

Giphy - http://giphy.com/

Meteorite58

Great day today here near Tralee, got up to 13.1C with a good SSE breeze on the coast, good sunshine all day here, not so lucky it seems in the rest of Kerry.

Pic. Fenit today at 15.00 approx

Elmer Blooker

I won't post this in the FI thread as it's silly season shameless ramping..... but I am seeing comparisons with the way 1947 started.
I've been watching pressure building over northern Scandinavia over the last day or two and and it's still there on this evenings ECM.
Having said that in spite of the similarity of these two charts my money is still on a sinker MLB winter. Anyway lets hope that pressure rising over Scandinavia continues to be a trend.
PS. LP down in the Azores area is always a good sign. Look up any winter worth talking about in the archives and you will always find LP there.

I was just looking at a weather commentator on youtube.
Usually they go looking for the most outlandish cold scenario to give viewers some hope.
Now with these charts appearing and showing ground air temperatures of -15 to -20 in Germany. It's frightening the bejaysus out of them

Maybe? Just maybe!

nagdefy

MidMan25 wrote: »

Giphy - http://giphy.com/

Thanks very much Midman!

discostu1

Sorry for butting in I'm a reader not a poster know very little about the weather. Someone mentioned the famous snows of 1947, I caught the end of a show on TG4 I think it was yesterday about that famous event. Some amazing footage the cold snap if thats what you lads would call it lasted 35 days, Wicklow mountains it seemed were like Alaska. A man coming home on his horse with provisions got lost and died in a snow drift I meant to post here at the time thought it would be of interest it is probably on the TG4 player

Stealthfins

There's a lovely book called "Ireland's Artic Siege" it's all about 1947 big freeze.
It's a great book for the fireside

discostu1

Stealthfins wrote: »

There's a lovely book called "Ireland's Artic Siege" it's all about 1947 big freeze.
It's a great book for the fireside

Thank you sounds a lovely read...apparently Archbishop McQuad I think issued a call for prayers at all Masses for the thaw to come....and a week later it started

nagdefy

My dad and his brother travelled 8 miles through drifts on horseback down from our hills to get bread in Bagenalstown Carlow.

Two neighbours died and they had to get their bodies out through the upstairs windows of their two storied house to get them to burial. They couldn't tell the ditches from the roads. I always felt they should have left them until the thaw as they were being well preserved with the cold. It lasted from mid January until after St. Patrick's Day 1947 with us. A lot of the older people say there was snow in quarries facing northward in June still. Just the amount that came and it was compacted.

Then 1946 and 1947 were bad harvests. There was a fear of a famine. Post war shortages and it being the centenary of the Great Famine added to the worry. Lads and lassies of teenage years were sent down the country to help with the harvest as the weather took up in September 1947. They were the 'Harvest Volunteers'. Not being as used to making sheaves of wheat as the country folk their sheaves were smaller when tied and became known as Volunteer Sheaves. With the improved September weather sunburn became a problem with the long hours outdoors.

nagdefy

Another good read of the most bitter winter on record in Western Europe, inc Ireland is:

Arctic Ireland: The Extraordinary Story of the Great Frost and Forgotten Famine of 1740–41 by David Dickson.

Reports of alcohol freezing! The winter being 1739-40.

nagdefy

discostu1 wrote: »

Sorry for butting in I'm a reader not a poster know very little about the weather. Someone mentioned the famous snows of 1947, I caught the end of a show on TG4 I think it was yesterday about that famous event. Some amazing footage the cold snap if thats what you lads would call it lasted 35 days, Wicklow mountains it seemed were like Alaska. A man coming home on his horse with provisions got lost and died in a snow drift I meant to post here at the time thought it would be of interest it is probably on the TG4 player

http://www.tg4.ie/en/player/home/?pid=5262727728001&teideal=Bliain%20an%20tSneachta%20Mh%C3%B3ir%20&series=Cogar

It's on the player alright discostu1.

JanuarySnowstor

The weekend possible snow event should really have its own thread.
There's a possibility of several hours worth of snow falling across the country followed by freezing conditions Sunday night.
It's all conjecture for now but v possible

PukkaStukka

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The weekend possible snow event should really have its own thread.
There's a possibility of several hours worth of snow falling across the country followed by freezing conditions Sunday night.
It's all conjecture for now but v possible

The Met Éireann forecasts are only mentioning snow showers, not any kind of prolonged fall. I think people need to keep their expectations realistic unless the forecast upgrades the situation.

JanuarySnowstor

PukkaStukka wrote: »

The Met Éireann forecasts are only mentioning snow showers, not any kind of prolonged fall. I think people need to keep their expectations realistic unless the forecast upgrades the situation.

We see the same charts as Met Eireann do.
It's live on here whereas they run one daily forecast.
At least a couple of hours persistent snow will happen new years morning is my forecast

I believe MT should update also.
His morning forecast isn't reflective of the risk

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

We see the same charts as Met Eireann do.
It's live on here whereas they run one daily forecast.
At least a couple of hours persistent snow will happen new years morning is my forecast

I believe MT should update also.
His morning forecast isn't reflective of the risk

Any particular part of the country favoured? The dp's look good anyway.

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

Any particular part of the country favoured? The dp's look good anyway.

It looks good nationwide tbh.
It's one of these situations where reports on the night will reveal all as the rain belt marches south.

As ever it may not happen but there's a strong chance and tine for Met Eireann to smell the coffee

RobertKK

nagdefy wrote: »

My dad and his brother travelled 8 miles through drifts on horseback down from our hills to get bread in Bagenalstown Carlow.

Two neighbours died and they had to get their bodies out through the upstairs windows of their two storied house to get them to burial. They couldn't tell the ditches from the roads. I always felt they should have left them until the thaw as they were being well preserved with the cold. It lasted from mid January until after St. Patrick's Day 1947 with us. A lot of the older people say there was snow in quarries facing northward in June still. Just the amount that came and it was compacted.

Then 1946 and 1947 were bad harvests. There was a fear of a famine. Post war shortages and it being the centenary of the Great Famine added to the worry. Lads and lassies of teenage years were sent down the country to help with the harvest as the weather took up in September 1947. They were the 'Harvest Volunteers'. Not being as used to making sheaves of wheat as the country folk their sheaves were smaller when tied and became known as Volunteer Sheaves. With the improved September weather sunburn became a problem with the long hours outdoors.

My father said the exact same thing about 1947 as you.
He had to go 7 miles to Kilkenny for food, where the snow went a lot sooner than on the hills around, and some in the city would say to my father about us still having the snow, when the snow melted Kilkenny city had record flooding. As you know a lot of hills around Kilkenny, it was probably like having snow in the Alps but the rivers not designed for such volumes of melt water and other rain water.
He always dreaded seeing another winter like 1947 given the hardship, and I don't think I want to see what it was like it either, no doubt it would bring down the power supply. It would be a national disaster.

pedigree 6

discostu1 wrote: »

Thank you sounds a lovely read...apparently Archbishop McQuad I think issued a call for prayers at all Masses for the thaw to come....and a week later it started

You mention the clergy.
I was reading a local history book here and when the thaw came on St.Patricks Day, the local priest gave permission for the farmers to work on sundays to plough and sow the corn as they had lost so much time with the snow on the fields. It said in the book that the farmers and contractors here were working day and night on their tractors to get the fields sowed.

Different times.

nagdefy

RobertKK wrote: »

My father said the exact same thing about 1947 as you.
He had to go 7 miles to Kilkenny for food, where the snow went a lot sooner than on the hills around, and some in the city would say to my father about us still having the snow, when the snow melted Kilkenny city had record flooding. As you know a lot of hills around Kilkenny, it was probably like having snow in the Alps but the rivers not designed for such volumes of melt water and other rain water.
He always dreaded seeing another winter like 1947 given the hardship, and I don't think I want to see what it was like it either, no doubt it would bring down the power supply. It would be a national disaster.

The stories are something else. My father would say the same (Jan 1987 etc), 'i hope it's not going to be another '47'. My dad maintained a lot of the February days were bright and dry and the worst of the snow came at night. Bar the 2 day blizzard of 24-26 February. They were hardy lads then! One thing that would happen now is a lot of men would get heart attacks shovelling snow. That was the main cause of death on the east side of America during the March 1993 Super Storm. Men weren't used to the level of manual labour and were trying to clear driveways when they would have been better off just staying inside.

In 1947 1/3 of the sheep in the UK were killed so i'd say something similar happened here. At home dad said the few oul cattle they had they seemed to manage to keep alive with some hay bar a few deaths.

PowerToWait

My grandfather used to tell about men who disappeared on the first night of the snow in '47. They used the tops of telegraph poles as way points where they existed.

My da used to slag him about bringing a shovel into the house if it ever it looked like snow, it seems they were caught out the first night and had a job to dig out.

This was up Laragh way in Wicklow.

nagdefy

pedigree 6 wrote: »

You mention the clergy.
I was reading a local history book here and when the thaw came on St.Patricks Day, the local priest gave permission for the farmers to work on sundays to plough and sow the corn as they had lost so much time with the snow on the fields. It said in the book that the farmers and contractors here were working day and night on their tractors to get the fields sowed.

Different times.

I remember as a child in 1980 the priest saying on the altar it was ok to work on Sundays as the weather was so bad

MidMan25

nagdefy wrote: »

I remember as a child in 1980 the priest saying on the altar it was ok to work on Sundays as the weather was so bad

Every Sunday? :pac: