Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

mickger844posts

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It looks good nationwide tbh.
It's one of these situations where reports on the night will reveal all as the rain belt marches south.

As ever it may not happen but there's a strong chance and tine for Met Eireann to smell the coffee

A now cast scenario for sure but i agree i was surprised to read Mt's and Met Eireann's forecasts this morning. I feel chances are decent to see some of the white stuff on the back edge of the front. GFS has been showing this since last night. Even if its all rain a freeze is more or less a given so lethal road conditions to start the year.

nagdefy

PowerToWait wrote: »

My grandfather used to tell about men who disappeared on the first night of the snow in '47. They used the tops of telegraph poles as way points where they existed.

My da used to slag him about bringing a shovel into the house if it ever it looked like snow, it seems they were caught out the first night and had a job to dig out.

This was up Laragh way in Wicklow.

They were hardy men, after coming through the poverty of the 20s and 30s. My dad used work from midnight until 8am in Carlow sugar factory, cycle the 8 miles uphill and farm for the rest of the day. Get a few hours sleep and in again. All heavy manual work. 2 men lugging 150 kg sacks of sugar around in the factory. He's on the way out now and 90 but his hands are still twice the size of mine and i'm not too small

The whole thing of cycling miles to matches. Getting up at 4am to walk cattle sometimes 35 miles or so to cattle fairs and then back.

nagdefy

MidMan25 wrote: »

Every Sunday? :pac:

Every Sunday that summer

nagdefy

http://homepage.eircom.net/~greenst/blizzardof47.html

Above is a link to an account of the 24-26 February blizzard in Roscommon. I probably posted last year but it's a good read. Particularly for anyone from around the Boyle area.

nagdefy

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/snowfallanal.pdf

Just a link to Met Eireann snowfall accounts above. All the centuries have had their major snowfall events. December 2010 showed us that the Irish climate, despite global warming, still has the potential for extreme cold. We reached -18.7C in Castlederg, just 0.4C off the all time record of 1881. I definitely feel there is another 1947 event that will happen in the next 50 years or so. It could be any year. And one must remember that that event only really got going in February and the severest blizzards were late February and early March.

It's nice to reminisce and look forward

PowerToWait

nagdefy wrote: »

They were hardy men, after coming through the poverty of the 20s and 30s.

That's for sure, a breed apart, no time for moaning. My oul' lad always laughed at people going on about 'the recession' the last 6 years or so and it was only the 40s and 50s he went through :pac:

nagdefy

PowerToWait wrote: »

That's for sure, a breed apart, no time for moaning. My oul' lad always laughed at people going on about 'the recession' the last 6 years or so and it was only the 40s and 50s he went through :pac:

Ha ha! My dad used say 'and they're all 'stressed' now, this is the latest.. and we pulling and dragging from dawn to dusk and breaking bones with animals and working away while the bones were setting'!!

Captain Snow

BOOM

ArKl0w

18z has snow showers in the eastern coastal margins from Dublin south to Wexford and also Donegal to West Kerry on New Years night into Jan 2nd
See attached

Captain Snow

ArKl0w wrote: »

18z has snow showers in the eastern coastal margins from Dublin south to Wexford and also Donegal to West Kerry on New Years night into Jan 2nd
See attached

Once the cold gets here id expect the models to change again and see how they model the cold spell.

Villain

Close but no cigar on 18z, certainly better than Atlantic muck but nothing too exciting for my parts at present.

Captain Snow

Cold and snow for some and very Frosty weather about to arrive over night new years. It will be a shock to the System.

mickger844posts

Its been a while since we have seen such low uppers within a reliable time frame. Hopefully just a taster of whats to come in January.

RobertKK

ArKl0w wrote: »

18z has snow showers in the eastern coastal margins from Dublin south to Wexford and also Donegal to West Kerry on New Years night into Jan 2nd
See attached

Met Eireann and even weather models usually underestimate how far inland the showers from the east can go.
The Castlecomer plateau - north Kilkenny, south Laois and a bit of Carlow, usually gets something from the east unless it is a very dry easterly, and we always seem to avoid the IOM shadow.

ArKl0w

RobertKK wrote: »

Met Eireann and even weather models usually underestimate how far inland the showers from the east can go.
The Castlecomer plateau - north Kilkenny, south Laois and a bit of Carlow, usually gets something from the east unless it is a very dry easterly, and we always seem to avoid the IOM shadow.

I think it's the wind direction that might not be in your favour on this occasion,it's more NNE hence the coast hugging but looks like plenty more bites of the cherry maybe a week later?

kittyn

I have a feeling that something is brewing .......

Nabber

kittyn wrote: »

I have a feeling that something is brewing .......

GFS seems to think it will get colder than most

JCX BXC

Just for measure, does anyone want to post the mildest chart for that time frame?

nagdefy

JCX BXC wrote: »

Just for measure, does anyone want to post the mildest chart for that time frame?

Ah God no, that's heresy:D

Only joking, i'm sure someone more savy than me with the GFS ensembles will post it

dexter647

discostu1 wrote: »

Sorry for butting in I'm a reader not a poster know very little about the weather. Someone mentioned the famous snows of 1947, I caught the end of a show on TG4 I think it was yesterday about that famous event. Some amazing footage the cold snap if thats what you lads would call it lasted 35 days, Wicklow mountains it seemed were like Alaska. A man coming home on his horse with provisions got lost and died in a snow drift I meant to post here at the time thought it would be of interest it is probably on the TG4 player

Really enjoyed that so many thanks for sharing. While many of us enjoy and long for cold weather be careful what you wish for...We do not need another 1947

Rock Lesnar

I didn't see much in the way of snow in the BBC forecast last night, they went with dry and cold new years day, getting milder for a couple of days mid week before turning colder again towards next weekend with the chance of wintry showers.

fraxinus1

Met Eireann still sticking to their 'milder weather for next week'. So it's looking like that any chance of snow will be New Year's Day night and the 2nd.

Gonzo

I don't see much in the way of lying snow except over high ground. What happens into January is still very much up in the air. The charts yesterday looked amazing but we all know that 9 times out of 10 they remain eye candy and don't work out.

ArKl0w

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Met Eireann still sticking to their 'milder weather for next week'. So it's looking like that any chance of snow will be New Year's Day night and the 2nd.

Yes but there will be milder weather next week from Tuesday,we always knew that
It's what happens from the 7th ,not included in Met Eireann's outlook that we are speculating on/looking forward to if you understand?

pedigree 6

You learn something new everyday.



Basically any precipitation behind the 528 line is snow??

ArKl0w

pedigree 6 wrote: »

You learn something new everyday.



Basically any precipitation behind the 528 line is snow??

Not always
525 is better as there's loads of factors
In the US 540 is enough sometimes as North westerlies from Canada have a long low dp land track

850hpa temps need to initially be sub minus 8 realistically but once you create your own surface deep cold pool the air aloft in weather fronts can be higher as long as the entire air the snow travels through to the surface is sub zero

In Dec 2010 at times snow was falling in Arklow when the 850hpa air aloft was only -2c because we were importing cold enough surface air from GB

For snow trains over the Irish Sea you'd need-8 or lower 850's usually to create the showers
But again not necessarily if you have shallow lows created and an icy GB surface tap

Clonmel1000

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The weekend possible snow event should really have its own thread.
There's a possibility of several hours worth of snow falling across the country followed by freezing conditions Sunday night.
It's all conjecture for now but v possible

Can you really call what's going to happen on Northern Hills a snow event? Several hours of snow falling across the country? Really?

Graces7

I can reliably and indubitably predict there will be heavy snow on the west coast and south west coast the end of the second week in January. I am aiming to move house from one mountain top to another.... Bound to snow

JCX BXC

Graces7 wrote: »

I can reliably and indubitably predict there will be heavy snow on the west coast and south west coast the end of the second week in January. I am aiming to move house from one mountain top to another.... Bound to snow

Welcome back! You're descriptive reports and memories were sorely missed by all on here :P

Graces7

JCX BXC wrote: »

Welcome back! You're descriptive reports and memories were sorely missed by all on here :P

Oh gee!! Thanks.... been a hard old year here.. serious health issues,facing eviction, being assaulted,,...

New year ahead.

"My mountains " here in Kerry are still as lovely and I will miss them sorely, watching the clouds skim them .... rainbows and robins... the weather always a treasure.... You can watch the weather heading in....