Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

nacho libre

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

I didn't see much in the way of snow in the BBC forecast last night, they went with dry and cold new years day, getting milder for a couple of days mid week before turning colder again towards next weekend with the chance of wintry showers.

I think that is correct, despite others predicting nationwide snow fall at the weekend, there probably won't be, as once its cold enough to snow in most areas lower down the precipitation will have petered out, there are exceptions but usually this is the way it is with a front moving down from the north with milder weather before it. After that it will be cold and dry for most, apart from coastal regions. Hopefully the second shot at colder weather will deliver snow more widely.

nagdefy

Turned a little more easterly Sunday eve than on 6Z GFS

nacho libre

The UKMO sticking to its guns with regard to the following weekend. I hope the other models don't fall in line, but the theme so far this winter has been for the high not to move to the right area to pave the way for a proper cold outbreak. You would like to think we will finally get lucky with the Atlantic seemingly being subdued for a while yet.

snowstorm445

FI fantasy cold scenario gets delayed/watered down yet again shocker!

Clonmel1000

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

06z showing significant backedge snow new years morning.
Met eireann quote last night 'turning cooler new years day'.
I always thought cool was a term should be used in Summer not when the country is under -8 uppers and it's snowing.
With a strong northerly wind I would stretch that to FREEZING COLD!

Looks like Met Eireann called this right again.

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

06z showing significant backedge snow new years morning.
Met eireann quote last night 'turning cooler new years day'.
I always thought cool was a term should be used in Summer not when the country is under -8 uppers and it's snowing.
With a strong northerly wind I would stretch that to FREEZING COLD!

Looks like Met Eireann called this right again.

Have they?

Clonmel1000

JCX BXC wrote: »

Have they?

Well I know who my money is on.

ninebeanrows

One must LOL at tonight's 12z output.

Would be one of the mild outliers per this morning's ENS for sure. However, the UKMO has been consistent.

Certainty still prospects of cold later in January, but one gets that usual feeling here again.

Crucial has been the lack of REAL pressure rises over Greenland, you need to see big height rises to sustain a surface block there.

It has seemed impossible to get extensive upper ridge builds over the Greenland plateau in recent winters.

ninebeanrows

*****Would be foolish to base too much emphasis on just tonight's 12z though. Certainly though there is some indication that only sig. cold spell would be delayed.

pedigree 6

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Looks like Met Eireann called this right again.

Land temperatures are very warm atm too with this mild weather.
I'd say it has to have an effect on the air above too.
I don't think there'll be any back edge snow on this cold front. Well probably on the mountains.
Just have to wait and see.

We are writing it off before it's even happened.:P

Villain

Harmonie 12z has all rain Saturday night into Sunday with any showers in east on Sunday slipping down the Irish sea

ArKl0w

Weathercheck wrote: »

One must LOL at tonight's 12z output.

Would be one of the mild outliers per this morning's ENS for sure. However, the UKMO has been consistent.

Certainty still prospects of cold later in January, but one gets that usual feeling here again.

Crucial has been the lack of REAL pressure rises over Greenland, you need to see big height rises to sustain a surface block there.

It has seemed impossible to get extensive upper ridge builds over the Greenland plateau in recent winters.

Yup,Quite the mirage we've been following though this past few days
It was ever thus
Now while it's dangerous to make predictions based on an evenings set of runs,it's about 95% less dangerous to suggest normal bland Irish winter weather is now likely rather than an intrusion of Siberian weather as always

You could be right,the bitter air is there to the north and east but the familiar finger of orange warmth projected up from the Atlantic over us is always there it's our climate
You need some extremely rare quirks to Trump it

Yourself isit

ArKl0w wrote: »

Yup,Quite the mirage we've been following though this past few days
It was ever thus
Now while it's dangerous to make predictions based on an evenings set of runs,it's about 95% less dangerous to suggest normal bland Irish winter weather is now likely rather than an intrusion of Siberian weather as always

You could be right,the bitter air is there to the north and east but the familiar finger of orange warmth projected up from the Atlantic over us is always there it's our climate
You need some extremely rare quirks to Trump it

Let's not forget this is a much better winter than last year. Maybe not for coldies but for those of us who like the sun.

Rock Lesnar

Yourself isit wrote: »

Let's not forget this is a much better winter than last year. Maybe not for coldies but for those of us who like the sun.

This, last year the pond across the field from us was flooded at least 4 times before January, which caused flooding around the area, so its been a terrific winter for me, dry most of the time and quite a bit of sunshine, sure its been bland but i'll take that over what seemed like endless days of downpours

mickger844posts

Overall disappointing output today with both GFS and ECM getting closer to the UKMO. No raging Atlantic but still no deep cold and a continuation of the bland non eventful Winter so far.

Pat Dunne

Delighted that we won't have snow or hard ftrost for the next few days, especially early in the mornings

pad199207

Pat Dunne wrote: »

Delighted that we won't have snow or hard ftrost for the next few days, especially early in the mornings

Out ya get! :P ......... gooo!

Hooter23

I wont be complaining about our usual weather again anything is better than this boring/no weather we have had now for months....

pedigree 6

Pat Dunne wrote: »

Delighted that we won't have snow or hard ftrost for the next few days, especially early in the mornings

There will be frost after our change in airmass this weekend.
Our airmass is coming from the tropics at the moment. This is changing this weekend.
Not sure what your definition of hard frost is but it will be -2, -3 in places when this air changes. The high will be centred over us after our northerly and inversions will be order of the day.

q85dw7osi4lebg

pedigree 6 wrote: »

There will be frost after our change in airmass this weekend.
Our airmass is coming from the tropics at the moment. This is changing this weekend.
Not sure what your definition of hard frost is but it will be -2, -3 in places when this air changes. The high will be centred over us after our northerly and inversions will be order of the day.

Speaking of frost, I had a hard frost 2 nights ago in East Meath. Dont think there was any mention of it from other bordsies at the time.

nagdefy

The GFS would wreck your head.

It over exaggerates storm wind speed and direction and it's constantly inaccurate with cold weather at 5-7 days.

I think the old UKMO mightn't be telling us what we want to hear but it's the way to go. 6 day forecast and leave it at that.

Any model beyond 6 days is really only producing rubbish that gets peoples' hopes up. Will we ever learn

nacho libre

nagdefy wrote: »

The GFS would wreck your head.

It over exaggerates storm wind speed and direction and it's constantly inaccurate with cold weather at 5-7 days.

I think the old UKMO mightn't be telling us what we want to hear but it's the way to go. 6 day forecast and leave it at that.

The way this winter has been going the ukmo's projection was the most plausible- we have not been able to establish a high latitude block so far this winter. too much residual energy upstream it seems for that to happen

It just will be a kick in the teeth, given the contrast to last years northern hemisphere profile, if we don't get one decent snowy spell before the Atlantic zonal flow becomes dominant again.

pedigree 6

Derek Easy Block wrote: »

Speaking of frost, I had a hard frost 2 nights ago in East Meath. Dont think there was any mention of it from other bordsies at the time.

Yep. There was a minimum temperature of 1.5c and a grass frost of -1.2 that night in Dunsany. Allowing for frost pockets it could be lower in places.

http://www.met.ie/climate/daily-data.asp

We didn't have it down here.
(Well we had a grass frost in the early hours).

nagdefy

Another little 'hook' the GFS has is the 4 updates a day. You check it in the morning, along with the ECM and UKMO, to see the midnight outputs and hoping there's a surprise.

Then around 10am in work Meteociel is opened and refreshed for GFS 6Z. Hoping to add further credence to the idea that the GFS promised weather 'Armageddon' is well and truly on the way.

Afternoon 4-5pm is GFS 12Z and UKMO 12Z time. The big question being is the UKMO coming on board, that daft, intransigent, typically British stand alone model.

ECM seems to always be somewhere in the middle. 7pm on is the time to check in there. What way is it veering?!

And last of all our old friend the GFS gives us 'the pub run' at 10pm. Still sticking to it's guns.

Get up on day 2 and repeat the process. By day 3, 4 or 5 the GFS does a complete u-turn to provide us with charts the UKMO predicted 5/6 days earlier.

So GFS with your 4 daily outputs you think you have us, don't ya?!

nagdefy

nagdefy wrote: »

The GFS would wreck your head.

It over exaggerates storm wind speed and direction and it's constantly inaccurate with cold weather at 5-7 days.

I think the old UKMO mightn't be telling us what we want to hear but it's the way to go. 6 day forecast and leave it at that.

Any model beyond 6 days is really only producing rubbish that gets peoples' hopes up. Will we ever learn

NEVER!!! Weather boardsies are like minions: always chasing with infinite enthusiasm that dream snowmaggedon chart that dangles out there in FI land......

nagdefy

You could put it to music

Message keeps getting clearer
Radio's on and I'm moving 'round the place
Check models on the computer
I want to change the temps, wind direction, vortex,
Man I ain't getting nowhere
I'm just living in the damp like this
There's something happening somewhere
Baby I just know that there is

You can't start a blizzard
You can't start a blizzard without some snow
This gun's for hire
Even if we're forecasting in the dark


Hope that rhymes:D

pedigree 6

nagdefy wrote: »

You could put it to music

Message keeps getting clearer
Radio's on and I'm moving 'round the place
Check models on the computer
I want to change the temps, wind direction, vortex,
Man I ain't getting nowhere
I'm just living in the damp like this
There's something happening somewhere
Baby I just know that there is

You can't start a blizzard
You can't start a blizzard without some snow
This gun's for hire
Even if we're forecasting in the dark


Hope that rhymes:D

You're loosing it.:pac:

Elmer Blooker

That was an interesting long range forecast on BBC 24 a few minutes ago, north easterlies setting in at the end of next week is the "most likely" outcome according to forecaster Jay Wynne.

Pat Dunne

pad199207 wrote: »

Out ya get! :P ......... gooo!

No bother I'll be out alright, getting up at 2:45am, then starting my shift at 3:30am then driving until midday for the next 3 mornings. :cool: So absolutely delighted for no snow and minimal icy conditions.

Good night all it's way past my bedtime.

nagdefy

pedigree 6 wrote: »

You're loosing it.:pac:

I'm afraid i've lost it a long time ago Pedigree 6

That little attempt at rewriting a classic was like something David Brent in The Office would do:D