Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

ArKl0w

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

That was an interesting long range forecast on BBC 24 a few minutes ago, north easterlies setting in at the end of next week is the "most likely" outcome according to forecaster Jay Wynne.

Yes and the UKMO have put the crucial new word 'VERY' beside the word Cold in their latest 30 day outlook update now

I'm not sure if it's Larium or Valium we'll all be needing soon

Eamondomc

Yes but they put it as low risk, covering the eventuality if it comes to pass.
Overall their 30 day doesn't suggested large snow accumulations or a massive big freeze.
We can but hope.

nagdefy

On this day 20 years ago, NYE 1996, it started to snow heavily with us. Snowfall fell on lower ground too. It continued on New Years Day. More snowfall followed over the next 10 days. The cold spell came to an end with mild south westerlies and heavy rain on January 10th 1997. Below is the 31st Dec 1996 chart. Lovely easterly.



Still daytime temps hovering around zero on 7th Jan 1997.

Villain

People need to remember the U.K. can often be on the cold side while we hug the warmth of the Atlantic

Pat Dunne

Villain wrote: »

People need to remember the U.K. can often be on the cold side while we hug the warmth of the Atlantic

Completely agree with you on that. For instance this morning at 3:30am both my phone and my car were indicating that it was 9C, not a very scientific measurement but it was unbelievably mild for the time and the month of the year.

Clonmel1000

Villain wrote: »

People need to remember the U.K. can often be on the cold side while we hug the warmth of the Atlantic

And the opposite in summer when the UK can be simmering in 25 plus temps whilst we are stuck in temps about 5/6 degrees above what they were on Christmas Day.

Stealthfins

Our weather here in Ireland was so damp and sloppy and drab even the Roman empire couldn't be arsed conquering this damp sod.
It was documented somewhere that a legion came to Ireland and it was the weather that put them off settling lol

squarecircles

ahhhh so its that old classic narrative developing,iv noticed this morning,the cold dies a death the other side of the irish sea, and we miss it by a 100 miles.
dear oh dear oh dear.

Villain

The 06z is a disaster, hoping it's an outlier

fraxinus1

It's over. Ireland will not see any cold wintry weather in January. I actually propose that there should be a ban on all threads on Boards that refer to weather model outputs more than 7 days out. This fantasy weather stuff does no service to true weather forecasting and many people pick up on these forecasts and then lose faith when these events fail to materialise. Met Eireann have been correct all along.

Graces7

Well, I am moving Friday 13th-14th,,,

You wait! It will blizzard!

Decided not to order the digiweb relocation yet as I use IP phone and may need to contact my "man with a van"!

Calm quiet day here with slender clouds skimming peaks and washing drying...

Villain

fraxinus1 wrote: »

It's over. Ireland will not see any cold wintry weather in January. I actually propose that there should be a ban on all threads on Boards that refer to weather model outputs more than 7 days out. This fantasy weather stuff does no service to true weather forecasting and many people pick up on these forecasts and then lose faith when these events fail to materialise. Met Eireann have been correct all along.

It's easy be right when you stick to 5 days.

There is no problem with FI model watching, it's good fun and when it does come off it's great to see how it evolved.

The issue is people reading comments and looking at images and thinking FI is going to be accurate.

ArKl0w

fraxinus1 wrote: »

It's over. Ireland will not see any cold wintry weather in January. I actually propose that there should be a ban on all threads on Boards that refer to weather model outputs more than 7 days out. This fantasy weather stuff does no service to true weather forecasting and many people pick up on these forecasts and then lose faith when these events fail to materialise. Met Eireann have been correct all along.

I propose we close down the weather forum...
Seconder ?

Rebelbrowser

ArKl0w wrote: »

I propose we close down the weather forum...
Seconder ?

Absolutely. Apart from calling charts post 5 days "fantasy island", apart from repeatedly saying any chart showing snow is 10 days plus days away and unlikely to verify, and apart finally from continually saying that mild wins out 9 times out of ten, this forum is completely misleading.

Seriously, if people cant take on board the numerous health warnings given with an fi "forecast", thats their issue in the circumstances.

MJohnston

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Absolutely. Apart from calling charts post 5 days "fantasy island", apart from repeatedly saying any chart showing snow is 10 days plus days away and unlikely to verify, and apart finally from continually saying that mild wins out 9 times out of ten, this forum is completely misleading.

Seriously, if people cant take on board the numerous health warnings given with an fi "forecast", thats their issue in the circumstances.

We live in the era that can't be bothered to read beyond the headlines, its not surprising people reading the Weather forum continually ignore qualifiers like "fantasy island" or "unlikely to verify". I blame Trump!

JCX BXC

Good god! If you don't like it, don't read it? It's not particularly hard! It's like some of the posters here are actually hurt when they hear the word snow. So what if users enjoy looking ahead to see if there is any chance of snow? It won't happen most of the time but it's nice to see how models develop and I see nothing wrong with posting it here.

What I do see an issue with is posters who think that they should force their "Realism" on to everyone else. Don't read it if you don't like we, we are most certainly aware at this stage.

Ridiculous that users can think they can remove certain posting privileges just because they are afraid of hope.

Graces7

JCX BXC wrote: »

Good god! If you don't like it, don't read it? It's not particularly hard! It's like some of the posters here are actually hurt when they hear the word snow. So what if users enjoy looking ahead to see if there is any chance of snow? It won't happen most of the time but it's nice to see how models develop and I see nothing wrong with posting it here.

What I do see an issue with is posters who think that they should force their "Realism" on to everyone else. Don't read it if you don't like we, we are most certainly aware at this stage.

Ridiculous that users can think they can remove certain posting privileges just because they are afraid of hope.

Agree..I am less sensitive than I was in the 2010 snow, which was made dangerous by the lack of any help. Been here long enough now to know where I can get help if need be and am better stocked etc too

Clonmel1000

JCX BXC wrote: »

Good god! If you don't like it, don't read it? It's not particularly hard! It's like some of the posters here are actually hurt when they hear the word snow. So what if users enjoy looking ahead to see if there is any chance of snow? It won't happen most of the time but it's nice to see how models develop and I see nothing wrong with posting it here.

What I do see an issue with is posters who think that they should force their "Realism" on to everyone else. Don't read it if you don't like we, we are most certainly aware at this stage.

Ridiculous that users can think they can remove certain posting privileges just because they are afraid of hope.

Ditto for you if you dint like what the realists have to say why read it? Have Met Eireann called this right?

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Ditto for you if you dint like what the realists have to say why read it? Have Met Eireann called this right?

I don't say that you shouldn't post your opinion!

I don't know if they have or not, tomorrow looks very marginal but still quite possible, tomorrow night's freeze is happening, and anything after that is too far to know for sure yet.

nagdefy

The annual strife between the 'realists' and the 'snow hopers'. I'm firmly in the latter category but i suppose we all have to remember the forum is for everybody. I know it's a little of an over simplification to say we are all in 2 groups, it's more complicated than that.

Despite knowing the dangers of FI we get sucked in a little and the tensions between both groups usually surface from FI disappointment. But as Villain said earlier when FI does, come up trumps (pardon the pun) it is great to watch how the charts evolved.

munsterlegend

Sure a child can predict our default weather of rain at times with sun/wind with temps ranging between 10 to 20 degrees for practically 12 months.

The fun is trying to predict extreme weather.

Yourself isit

Stealthfins wrote: »

Our weather here in Ireland was so damp and sloppy and drab even the Roman empire couldn't be arsed conquering this damp sod.
It was documented somewhere that a legion came to Ireland and it was the weather that put them off settling lol

That last bit is not true. They had no idea of the size of Ireland though. Roman maps are atrocious.

mickger844posts

I wouldn't be giving up on the Winter just yet. The fact is the models are a mess right now and beyond 72hrs is FI. If the jet was roaring over us well, that would be curtains but no model is forecasting this anytime soon.
In the short term I'm looking forward to the cold front to arrive later and get rid of this mild, cloudy awfulness.

Yourself isit

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Ditto for you if you dint like what the realists have to say why read it? Have Met Eireann called this right?

We don't know yet do we. They will be naturally more conservative.

Kingswood Rover

mickger844posts wrote: »

I wouldn't be giving up on the Winter just yet. The fact is the models are a mess right now and beyond 72hrs is FI. If the jet was roaring over us well, that would be curtains but no model is forecasting this anytime soon.
In the short term I'm looking forward to the cold front to arrive later and get rid of this mild, cloudy awfulness.

Whaaat the weather has been brill for ages now dry and bright able to go golfin,walkin and cycling almost without worrying about getting pissed on. The weather has been great this winter. i would love a bit of snow though.

pedigree 6

November for many was our taste or maybe will be our winter.
It was unusual in that November was colder than December.
I think many people are forgetting about November or that it just didn't affect their part of the country. Although I think most mountains in this country got a dusting of snow. Or maybe eaten bread is soon forgotten??

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057656427&page=12

Back to this week.
After our brief dusting on some mountaintops tonight, it looks like frost and fog will be the order of the day for this week.

It's not summer weather anyway.:p

ArKl0w

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Ditto for you if you dint like what the realists have to say why read it? Have Met Eireann called this right?

Met Eirean haven't actually given any opinion on the 7th of January onwards at all yet so can't compare to be fair

nagdefy

Best steer a middle ground with medium to long range weather forecasts, like most things in life.

A snowy FI GFS doesn't mean December 2010 or 1947 an Atlantic train one doesn't mean we'll never see snow again in our lifetime.

To re quote the oft quoted Rudyard Kipling..
'If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same'.


P.s. With modern medicine i presume a lot more of us will see 100. So we can look out at snow through our nursing home window :-D

nagdefy

UKMO 12Z at 6 days out an improvement. Where will that mid Atlantic ridge go lads? Usually westwards is it?

Clonmel1000

ArKl0w wrote: »

Met Eirean haven't actually given any opinion on the 7th of January onwards at all yet so can't compare to be fair

I didn't say they did? But 2/3 days ago there was a lot of excitement on here about a 'snow event' tomorrow and criticism of Met eireann for.not going bigger on that view.