Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Larbre34

Nothing can be written off beyond 10 days in Ireland as regards wintry weather. At least until mid-April.

pedigree 6

Kind of unusual weather conditions here this afternoon.

Fog rolling in above and all along the Blackstairs mountains and descending into the Wexford side from Carlow.

Rebelbrowser

fraxinus1 wrote: »

I meet a neighbour out walking today and he is in his late 80s. He reckons all the signs are for the rest of the winter to be calm and mild. This will lead into a wet and cold April which will be stormy. I know we aren't supposed to take heed of weather lore and signs but I thought it an interesting outlook. He is renowned for getting it right. With January a write off regarding snow, frost and wind (thankfully), this fits in with his predictions.

On what basis are you writing off January with 27 days left to go in it?

sryanbruen

fraxinus1 wrote: »

I meet a neighbour out walking today and he is in his late 80s. He reckons all the signs are for the rest of the winter to be calm and mild. This will lead into a wet and cold April which will be stormy. I know we aren't supposed to take heed of weather lore and signs but I thought it an interesting outlook. He is renowned for getting it right. With January a write off regarding snow, frost and wind (thankfully), this fits in with his predictions.

Us here in the east had a cold and wet April in 2016, we don't need another one in 2017. But hey that does not mean it won't happen. 2012 was a cold and wet April. 2013 was another cold and wet one. I love to find different ways of predicting weather because of past patterns but unfortunately with Ireland's climate, there's ALWAYS going to be exceptions. One very infamous recent one was the fact that December 2015 was so extreme in terms of warmth, December 2016 just had to be colder than normal. Unfortunately, that was not the case. Now sure, it wasn't as warm as December 2015 but it was still another very mild December.

There are still 27 days to go of January anyway, so it's not a total write off yet. I can't seem to be optimistic though as I'm just not seeing any severe cold taking place.

Reati

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On what basis are you writing off January with 27 days left to go in it?

fraxinus1 wrote: »

I meet a neighbour out walking today and he is in his late 80s. He reckons all the signs are for the rest of the winter to be calm and mild.

Come on, what more proof do you need. He Reckons it so it is! :rolleyes:

MidMan25

fraxinus1 wrote: »

I meet a neighbour out walking today and he is in his late 80s. He reckons all the signs are for the rest of the winter to be calm and mild. This will lead into a wet and cold April which will be stormy. I know we aren't supposed to take heed of weather lore and signs but I thought it an interesting outlook. He is renowned for getting it right. With January a write off regarding snow, frost and wind (thankfully), this fits in with his predictions.

Can people please stop with this nonsense

munsterlegend

MidMan25 wrote: »

Can people please stop with this nonsense

It's very similar nonsense to a previous poster on here who was big into lego.

fraxinus1

munsterlegend wrote: »

It's very similar nonsense to a previous poster on here who was big into lego.

??

fraxinus1

Why is reporting a casual weather related topic considered nonsense? I see nothing wrong with it. I didn't claim it was true, I merely mentioned having a chat and intentionally pointed out that old weather lore is not to be taken seriously. Some people on here need to relax a bit.

Reati

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Why is reporting a casual weather related topic considered nonsense? I see nothing wrong with it. I didn't claim it was true, I merely mentioned having a chat and intentionally pointed out that old weather lore is not to be taken seriously. Some people on here need to relax a bit.

fraxinus1 wrote: »

. He is renowned for getting it right. With January a write off regarding snow, frost and wind (thankfully), this fits in with his predictions.

Your posts don't gel with one another.

No body needs to relax either, you don't need to be worked up to call nonsense, nonsense. Telling people to relax is a deflection attempt in conversation. :cool:

fraxinus1

Reati wrote:

Your posts don't gel with one another.

Reati wrote:

No body needs to relax either, you don't need to be worked up to call nonsense, nonsense. Telling people to relax is a deflection attempt in conversation.

I stand by my post; I am not deflecting. I refuse to allow the usual 'clique' on here belittle me. I posted nothing offensive, rude or illegal.

JCX BXC

Let fraxinus believe what they believe, I know several people who can take the word of others. No need to be so hostile.

Reati

fraxinus1 wrote: »

I stand by my post; I am not deflecting. I refuse to allow the usual 'clique' on here belittle me. I posted nothing offensive, rude or illegal.

What clique? How do I join? That was my first post in this forum. Do I need to have a weather station or something like that?

fraxinus1

Reati wrote:

What clique? How do I join? That was my first post in this forum. Do I need to have a weather station or something like that?

Your first post? And you start belittling other users? Nice.

fraxinus1

Anyway I won't be posting on here for a while. However, I won't be driven away either as I want to continue to read everyone else's posts. I always respect other people's views even if I disagree with them. Over and out.

kingshankly

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Anyway I won't be posting on here for a while. However, I won't be driven away either as I want to continue to read everyone else's posts. I always respect other people's views even if I disagree with them. Over and out.

The problem is your neighbour mate if he had of predicted ice and snow your post would be a lot thicker with "thanks"
But he predicted mild weather which the snow bunnies detest

Graces7

kingshankly wrote: »

The problem is your neighbour mate if he had of predicted ice and snow your post would be a lot thicker with "thanks"
But he predicted mild weather which the snow bunnies detest

Watching MTs forecasts with great interest as I DID say we may well or almost certainly will get snow end of next week, ie 13th to 14th as I am moving from one mountain top to another and even a couple of inches will be a great pain.

As good a prediction method as any I read here...

After that , fine....

MidMan25

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Anyway I won't be posting on here for a while. However, I won't be driven away either as I want to continue to read everyone else's posts. I always respect other people's views even if I disagree with them. Over and out.

Come off of it. It's pretty obvious somebody is on the wind up/trolling when they finish their comment by calling January, a month with 26 days remaining in it, a write-off for cold. Next time try to be a bit more subtle. Apologies for going off topic mods, clean her up!

Reati

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Anyway I won't be posting on here for a while. However, I won't be driven away either as I want to continue to read everyone else's posts. I always respect other people's views even if I disagree with them. Over and out.

Probably best for your blood pressure, the place seems to be upsetting up.

Reati

kingshankly wrote: »

The problem is your neighbour mate if he had of predicted ice and snow your post would be a lot thicker with "thanks"
But he predicted mild weather which the snow bunnies detest

Who would have thought a weather forum could have so much drama. This has to be uniquely Irish.

Anyway, no snow for me thanks. Hate the stuff and the disruption that comes with it. I just dislike pseudoscience nonsense. Old men predicting the weather on feeling is like someone saying their dog pissed on a flower in a given way and hence a hurricane is likely. It's nonsense.

Stealthfins

Graces7 wrote:

Watching MTs forecasts with great interest as I DID say we may well or almost certainly will get snow end of next week, ie 13th to 14th as I am moving from one mountain top to another and even a couple of inches will be a great pain.

Graces7 wrote:

As good a prediction method as any I read here...

Graces7 wrote:

After that , fine....

Are you living up a mountain ?

Sounds like you have a nice setup.

Yourself isit

Reati wrote: »

Who would have thought a weather forum could have so much drama. This has to be uniquely Irish.

Anyway, no snow for me thanks. Hate the stuff and the disruption that comes with it. I just dislike pseudoscience nonsense. Old men predicting the weather on feeling is like someone saying their dog pissed on a flower in a given way and hence a hurricane is likely. It's nonsense.

You should try the English weather forums. Blood and guts.

ArKl0w

Yourself isit wrote: »

You should try the English weather forums. Blood and guts.

And full of the most ridiculous hope casting you'll ever see
Not mentioning names but some of them keep posting variations of things the models should be showing to get the snow and how they think it's going to happen
It's deluded
Then there's the stock phrase 'at least it won't be mild'
As if 7c and rain is better than 13c and rain
It's not


Still no sign of anything significant and another 2 weeks of pretty much a variation of the theme of the last 30 days nailed on
Pretty Awful verification for the UK Met Office December January outlook then

snaps

Currently -12, with in laces 60cm of snow. It's been snowing here for nearly 40hours.

For the first time I've known (in 8 years), things are slowing down.

Roads are blocked due to stuck hgv's, trains have stopped as the tracks can't be cleared quick enough and schools are allowing kids to go home early.

Attached photo from the balcony of my workplace.

Rebelbrowser

ArKl0w wrote: »

....Still no sign of anything significant and another 2 weeks of pretty much a variation of the theme of the last 30 days nailed on Pretty Awful verification for the UK Met Office December January outlook then

I found this forum about 7 years ago and have followed it and the models ever since (without, unfortunately, ever really understanding much more than temperatures). I also do dip into the biggest UK weather forum which is, as described, a mad house where the more prominent posters genuinely are deluded enough to think that they can influence the weather; - eg. "..what we need to do is move that high pressure southwest and get that trigger low to move....." . The one observation I would make from this period of forum / model watching is that in fact we (i.e. mankind) know a lot less about weather forecasting than I thought! The models really aren't very accurate at all beyond 100 hrs and in fact the gut intuition of the couple of very good posters we have on this site (and there are equivalents on the UK sites too in fairness) seem to be far more accurate in the 7 to 14 day period than the models from what I can see. Beyond 14 days it seems to me it is complete guesswork as the accuracy of the UK Met LR forecasts has proved time and again. Ultimately weather forecasting involves too much chaos theory to have any chance of being right beyond 14 days as far as I can see.

Eamondomc

Its getting like a political thread in here, maybe we need a different govt to give us the weather we need , with a minister for weather we can spout at to get what we want..
Personally I like dry cold weather this time of year, but we get the rain and wind given our geographical position. Its nothing new, 52 years looking at it and except for the occasional anomalies that's our lot.
Anyone ever been to mass and hear the priest pray for suitable weather for the harvest, or some other situation if there's floods for instance, seems to be a lot of priests on here!

snaps

The big boys are out......Poor council workers have been using snow shovels to clear.....

But now.......

ronnie3585

snaps wrote: »

The big boys are out......Poor council workers have been using snow shovels to clear.....

But now.......

Wow! Will you be able to make it home?

nacho libre

Eamondomc wrote: »

Its getting like a political thread in here, maybe we need a different govt to give us the weather we need , with a minister for weather we can spout at to get what we want..

A good idea but then the opposition, the snow hater scoundrels, will also want a change in the minister for weather. You see you can please some of the people some of the time, but you can't please all of the people all of the time.
The poster message was a lie:(

The UK Met Office long range forecast for this winter has been wrong thus far, but I have a feeling the second half of their forecast( late January to the end of February) will be right.

MJohnston

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

The one observation I would make from this period of forum / model watching is that in fact we (i.e. mankind) know a lot less about weather forecasting than I thought!

Well, I don't think that's entirely true...you're quite right that weather prediction is all about the simulation of millions and millions of tiny little weather interactions, mixed with a bit of historically-driven interpretation, however I would say that most professionals (and even posters here) know plenty about forecasting - eg. they know that it's inaccurate after a point and are clear and upfront about this. They also know that the models are constantly improving (thanks to more data, better resolution, better computers) and that inaccuracy point is always getting further away.

I think the main problem with weather forecasting is the general public - they have an allergic reaction to data analysis, with uncertainty or probabilities. You only have to look at the recent US election for proof of this - I read 538's analysis constantly, and the data itself was very, very clear about the possibility of a Trump election, even as the second hand punditry (ie. pundits who looked at 538's own punditry) was saying 'Clinton will definitely win'. Then after Trump won, the public are up in arms about polling and data saying "how could it be so far wrong?" - well, no, it wasn't if you were reading the data yourself instead of relying on second hand interpretations.

It's the same with weather forecasts - people (and sadly I think this applies to some readers of this forum) just want to hear the headline, and then get mad when it doesn't come to pass, instead of seeking out the data itself (which isn't *that* difficult to interpret once you learn one or two basics) and making your own judgement, or indeed even just reading the accuracy cautions of the forecasters.

Sadly, I think this is same reason we get climate change deniers and anti-vaxxers - people have lost their trust in data because they've chosen to let non-expert journalists interpret it for them, when there's absolutely nothing wrong with the data.

/rant