Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

ArKl0w

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

and not to forget a bit of Met eireann bashing

Well to be fair,they are consistent
They will tell you in a forecast what the overnight ECM says

ArKl0w

pedigree 6 wrote: »

I think De Bilt is another name for the ECM weather forecasting I.e the headquarters are in De Bilt???

The only weather model giving us raging easterly from a scandi high in FI anyway.

They release the 2m temp ecm chart for de bilt from each run
It's handy because along with the surface chart you can see the effects there of an easterly first in an area that has similar weather normally to SE England and next door to there practically

The ECM continually signalling an easterly at day 9 or 10 cannot be discounted as much as it can't be taken as gospel
As I was suggesting earlier,we have time on our sides and if ever there was to be an evolution to an easterly it's in this current NH pattern
It might only last a week but the people of Dublin Meath Louth and perhaps north Wicklow would know all about it
I prefer northeasterly for Wicklow ,better fetch if you get me but that locally can happen
And yes of course being FI nothing is nailed down
But the stages argument in weather applies in that if this NH pattern persists,then eventually a pair of sixes will roll

snaps

Another extremely cold night here in southern Poland. -31.5c, of course unofficially but locally Polish met said these were the temps to expect.

Officially -27c was recorded at an official station.

Things are warming up gradually from tomorrow, with snow coming in from midweek all tied into that low pressure bringing forecast cold to Ireland.

I forgot to empty the steel water butt this winter which has now expanded and split.

Attached my view from bedroom.

ArKl0w

I've every faith in the Irish Sea when we get our easterly,have a look at how the warm Adriatic has been introduced to lake effect fun?

https://twitter.com/severeweathereu/status/817692408561434625

Clonmel1000

Beautiful morning here bright blue sky's and mild.

munsterlegend

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Beautiful morning here bright blue sky's and mild.

Yeah last two nights very mild. No need for a fire. Will be a big change come Wednesday night on for a few days.

Eamondomc

Grey and dull here with patches of fog about the place, 9 degrees and feeling very mild.
Loving snaps pics, but he seems to be fuelling the snow lovers dreams and driving a depression almost amongst us that we aren't going to be getting an arctic winter.
Keep them coming though, I love them.

munsterlegend

The 06zGfs has this cold spell being over by Saturday. Cue nw toys out of the pram. Seems big difference between gfs and ecm with the ukmo adopting a middle ground. Low confidence from U.K. Met office in ecm solution of an easterly developing but they haven't exactly been getting it nailed on recently.

pedigree 6

Eamondomc wrote: »

Grey and dull here with patches of fog about the place, 9 degrees and feeling very mild.
Loving snaps pics, but he seems to be fuelling the snow lovers dreams and driving a depression almost amongst us that we aren't going to be getting an arctic winter.
Keep them coming though, I love them.

I wouldn't go that far Eamon.:D

I think most snow lovers are weather watchers and look at the models for the comparison of them and the different evolutions of them and are able to make their mind up themselves.

You should never take the models too seriously in FI and people don't ( especially this winter with all the sudden changes in modelling).
I don't think posters take what is posted here too seriously either or at least shouldn't. Generally chill out and go with the weather flow.:p

Eamondomc

And spare a thought for the implications cold and snow bring.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/freezing-weather-in-mainland-europe-causes-deaths-and-delays-1.2929230

pedigree 6

munsterlegend wrote: »

The 06zGfs has this cold spell being over by Saturday. Cue nw toys out of the pram. Seems big difference between gfs and ecm with the ukmo adopting a middle ground. Low confidence from U.K. Met office in ecm solution of an easterly developing but they haven't exactly been getting it nailed on recently.

The UKMO have a small low developing off Canada and Greenland at 120hrs that ECM doesn't show or have no interest in developing. Its this little low that has big consequences down the line whether we get an easterly or not.
Still all FI.:rolleyes:

glightning

To be fair, the ECM has done a better job than the GFS over the past few 'cold spell' events in that it did a much better job of predicting the locations of the HP systems. Running up to each of the last few predicted cold spells, the GFS consistently predicted the HP to be too far west (with us sitting under a northerly feed) whereas the ECM showed the less favourable prediction of the HP being more over the top of us or toppling over us SE into the Continent. It generally got this right on each occasion and the cold always pushed down east of the UK and into mainland Europe.
Therefore, given it's track record this winter of getting the HP positioning better than the GFS.... I would tend to side with the ECM output more than the GFS at the moment.
In the short term though, one thing is almost for sure now and that is that some of us are going to be getting our first snowfall of the winter by the time we get to Friday. The airmass may not be all that impressively cold, but it should be cold enough for the white stuff from about 100m and above.

ArKl0w

Remember GFS does double the number of runs and is historically useless at modelling easterlies
Double the runs with slight changes mean double the variety in outcomes and in my opinion with FI double the already questionable reliability

In the U.S forecast technical analysis i.e. the human input for forecasts is published (effectively the forecasters discussing how they blend models to achieve what they think will happen) and beyond 5 days invariably it's a scattering of outcomes and within it's often a case where they run with the ECM or UKMO and not their own GFS

Now bear in mind that's to achieve an outcome one single model hasn't thought of
Which is why sometimes you'll see features disappear with huge impacts on the FI lala land end of the model run (because they were never going to develop anyway,nature is the models ultimate trump,they're indicative not conclusive)

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

The 06zGfs has this cold spell being over by Saturday. Cue nw toys out of the pram. Seems big difference between gfs and ecm with the ukmo adopting a middle ground. Low confidence from U.K. Met office in ecm solution of an easterly developing but they haven't exactly been getting it nailed on recently.

Even so, even the offending 6z gfs has charts showing over half the country getting some snow in 4 days time. Accordingly even if the 6z gfs makes this cold outbreak a shortlived outcome (and this is far, far from certain) theres plenty of interest for this Thursday. Might I suggest that next Thursday deserves its own thread now - being less than 100 hrs away and with cross model agreement on some snow anyway?

LEIN

Today's farming forecast should be very interesting.

hotwhiskey

Northern Ireland Met office-

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Showers on Tuesday, strong winds at times. Turning much colder during Wednesday and Thursday. Very windy with frequent wintry showers, significant snowfall in places and drifting over higher ground.

Updated at: 0240 on Sun 8 Jan 2017

Graces7

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Northern Ireland Met office-

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Showers on Tuesday, strong winds at times. Turning much colder during Wednesday and Thursday. Very windy with frequent wintry showers, significant snowfall in places and drifting over higher ground.

Updated at: 0240 on Sun 8 Jan 2017

let it stay NORTH please!

ArKl0w

Graces7 wrote: »

let it stay NORTH please!

It won't
This is potent enough to whiten high ground in Kerry and west cork

squarecircles

joanna Donnelly had a snow line graphic representing where snowfall is possible on the farming forecast,saying that any precipitation on Thursday would be falling as snow on high ground and down to lower levels...

Captain Snow

Thursday will be a cold shock to the system.

Plenty of Snow Showers rattling in off the Atlantic.

There will be a few slight changes in the models over the next 3 days but everyone should see snow or snow showers because of the strong winds driving the showers across to the east coast.










Plently of Snow

sryanbruen

The BBC going for maximum temperatures of 1-4c on Thursday and this is what they said they would feel like :P:

Snowbiee21

Dublin will still be a snowshield😂😂

MidMan25

Captain Snow wrote: »

Thursday will be a cold shock to the system.

Plenty of Snow Showers rattling in off the Atlantic.

There will be a few slight changes in the models over the next 3 days but everyone should see snow or snow showers because of the strong winds driving the showers across to the east coast.

Everyone except us here on the south coast :rolleyes:

Easterly Beasterly

squarecircles wrote: »

joanna Donnelly had a snow line graphic representing where snowfall is possible on the farming forecast,saying that any precipitation on Thursday would be falling as snow on high ground and down to lower levels...

What areas did it show?

Captain Snow

MidMan25 wrote: »

Everyone except us here on the south coast :rolleyes:

I think with such strong winds they will drive right accross the Country...and FI shows an easterly developing Sunday week .....

Both the ECM and GFS have been playing with this Idea.

ArKl0w

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

What areas did it show?

It was probably the 528 dam line and it was way south of Ireland on her map

Snow could happen anywhere but it's shower distribution that's key
North and west bearing the brunt in this flow

Graces7

ArKl0w wrote: »

It won't
This is potent enough to whiten high ground in Kerry and west cork

I posted to thank you then realised I had totally misread the wording that it was NOT potent enough! Well we shall see and I will take advice from my man with a van.

Gonzo

don't think the east coast will see much snow, judging from the graphic most of Meath and Dublin along with the south coast will be snow free. We need this to turn easterly!

Captain Snow

Gonzo wrote: »

don't think the east coast will see much snow, judging from the graphic most of Meath and Dublin along with the south coast will be snow free. We need this to turn easterly!

Billcarson

Where is MT going with his temps of 4c-7c max temps on thur,more likey 2c- 4c imo.