Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Reckless Abandonment

Strong winds will help the showers get across the country, but faster moving showers won't drop much. Win loose kind of thing for the East coast

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

don't think the east coast will see much snow, judging from the graphic most of Meath and Dublin along with the south coast will be snow free. We need this to turn easterly!

Correct as both Dublin and Meath are located in the east of the country......won't be expecting much snow for Dublin myself but hey isn't it good we are even getting a cold blast, we could even see a few snow flurries in the capital city.

However should winds switch to the east in the coming weeks, I don't think there is a better place in Ireland for snowfall than the Dublin region, as clearly evidenced in November and December 2010

D

Billcarson

Don't think the east will see much myself,but still a bit away yet,snow is always a nowcast situation anyway. Maybe a little feature could pop up at short notice in the flow or something.

ninebeanrows

Likely most areas will wake up with a white dusting/covering Friday morning. Probably no more than 1-2cms for parts of Dublin and over 15 in some western hills.

Captain Snow

Weathercheck wrote: »

Likely most areas will wake up with a white dusting/covering Friday morning. Probably no more than 1-2cms for parts of Dublin and over 15 in some western hills.

Dublin Wicklow Mountains will be ALIVE with Snow....:D

Stealthfins

derekon wrote:

However should winds switch to the east in the coming weeks, I don't think there is a better place in Ireland for snowfall than the Dublin region, as clearly evidenced in November and December 2010

Being from the west,the best falls to watch that I seen were in Dublin.

These heavy swirling masses of snow, twirling and dancing in the breeze.

If you go onto YouTube and listen to the Iron Maiden song "Mother Russia"
It gives a great description of a winter's landscape.

I remember being at funderland in Dublin as a kid during the mid 80's and it snowing heavy outside all day long.

We'd get into the train in heuston,the carriages and engine would be covered in snow,then arrive into frosty Limerick and the snow would be still on top of the train,but none on the ground.

There was also a time the mountains in Kerry would be snow capped for nearly a month every winter, I spent a lot of time down there as a kid.

I'm definitely a snow Bunny lol

LEIN

Has turned out to be a very nice afternoon here, cloud broke up to give some decent winter sun.

Captain Snow

Still on track:)

sryanbruen

Gavin Partridge says that we could expect some cold winters in the next few years because of how the solar cycle is. Currently, we're at a similar place in the solar cycle as we were in 2005/06. That goes back to my similarity with Winter 2005/06 weather wise. December 2005 was mild and anticyclonic after a wet start. December 2016 was very similar but wet to end and mid-month rather than the beginning. January 2006 was very dry and rather mild but some cold conditions towards the end. Could that happen with this January? Due to the similar conditions to that Winter and how similar the stage of the solar cycle is right now to then is making me intrigued in his theory for cold winters in the next few years. Though remember, there is still chances for mild and wet winters like the next one after 2005/06 was 2006/07 which was very wet and mild. 2007/08 was also wet and mild.

ArKl0w

https://twitter.com/severeweathereu/status/818094781347794945

glightning

Billcarson wrote: »

Don't think the east will see much myself,but still a bit away yet,snow is always a nowcast situation anyway. Maybe a little feature could pop up at short notice in the flow or something.

Yes, that would be the ideal. There are some kinks in the flow which could develop as small troughs. That's what we ideally want. 
Outside of that, I agree that the strong winds will help drive showers across more of the country, but I usually find that in a NW or N flow that the showers dump a lot of their snow fast and I end up losing out here just South West of Lough Neagh. However, sometimes Lough Neagh itself can pep up shows coming from the NW with a kind of very mild lake effect. I would prefer a NW flow rather than a straight Northerly because of this very reason.
I'm not that keen on easterlies as they general don't deliver much for Eastern NI except for a bitter wind. I guess that is down to the fact that up here we have the narrowest part of the Irish Sea in a straight easterly.

nagdefy

Great to see so much excitement and activity on the weather threads This day last week most of January looked like a write off.

I haven't been on here for a week as my dad was ill and passed last Tuesday, burial Friday. He was 90 and so more of a celebration of a life. Still fairly shattered after the week. He told me many stories of 1947, 1963 etc

Clonmel1000

nagdefy wrote: »

Great to see so much excitement and activity on the weather threads This day last week most of January looked like a write off.

I haven't been on here for a week as my dad was ill and passed last Tuesday, burial Friday. He was 90 and so more of a celebration of a life. Still fairly shattered after the week. He told me many stories of 1947, 1963 etc

Sorry for your loss nadgefy.

ArKl0w

I wouldn't rule out snow in the east from tonight's UKMO 144 chart next Saturday if there's features running down the Irish Sea which there definitely will be,question is just off shore or landfall,the latter is definitely possible?

nagdefy

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Sorry for your loss nadgefy.

Thanks very much Clonmel 1000.

Boggy Turf

I just watched the RTE weather. It looks really promising for snow. They even showed a "snow line" which makes it very exciting on Thursday and Friday.

Captain Snow

Boggy Turf wrote: »

I just watched the RTE weather. It looks really promising for snow. They even showed a "snow line" which makes it very exciting on Thursday and Friday.

pedigree 6

Roll up, Roll up.

It's GFS v's the ECM and the UKMO.
The Yanks v's the Europeans.

Who will win?
Find out tonight.;):D

munsterlegend

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Roll up, Roll up.

It's GFS v's the ECM and the UKMO.
The Yanks v's the Europeans.

Who will win?
Find out tonight.;):D

The GFS is prob right given the winter so far. Just have a feeling the ECM will backtrack.

pedigree 6

munsterlegend wrote: »

The GFS is prob right given the winter so far. Just have a feeling the ECM will backtrack.

I'm the opposite. Given the ECM has been more conservative this winter.
The GFS has never got a handle on the weather this winter with coming up numerous phantom storms in FI.

All a bit of sport anyway.

Rock Lesnar

BBC going with very cold from wednesday on, low temps during the day combined with the wind makes it feel like -4, a chance of snow showers, doesn't look much, it'll continue into the weekend, before the mild mild west takes over again.

Captain Snow

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

BBC going with very cold from wednesday on, low temps during the day combined with the wind makes it feel like -4, a chance of snow showers, doesn't look much, it'll continue into the weekend, before the mild mild west takes over again.

But will it. Once the cold arrives the Models will change again. Any sort of low can develop in the cold feed and change every thing. We will have to wait till thursdays to saturdays models to see the changes.

Rock Lesnar

Captain Snow wrote: »

But will it. Once the cold arrives the Models will change again. Any sort of low can develop in the cold feed and change every thing. We will have to wait till thursdays to saturdays models to see the changes.

Well i find the BBC very reliable, take last weekend as an example, some people just before it said we'd see snow, the bbc the sunday before said no snow, i hope they'll be wrong, but for now i'll stick with what they say

Harry Palmr

Obviously the detail remains to be seen as it's still Sunday but met.ie once again seem to be overplaying the duration of the cold spell (just as they overplay wind, rain events etc), it looks like it could be no more than a three day thing with a milder westerly airflow coming in by Sunday.

sryanbruen

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Obviously the detail remains to be seen as it's still Sunday but met.ie once again seem to be overplaying the duration of the cold spell (just as they overplay wind, rain events etc), it looks like it could be no more than a three day thing with a milder westerly airflow coming in by Sunday.

And that's what the GFS is showing. The ECMWF is continuing the cold but more to an easterly.

Harry Palmr

Am I the only one who thinks that Met.ie is more prone to "gloomy" forecasting than the UK met office? That is to say met.ie will forecast greater extent of rain or wind (basically bad weather) then across the water? Obviously the UK met does not cover most of Ireland in the script of TV forecasts but they do show the pressure, front positions and estimations of rain bearing cloud coverage and it somehow looks more glass half full (assuming full in winter is quiet and dry - not a popular opinion here I know)

pedigree 6

Who are the ECMWF?
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are

Who are the GFS?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

Donegal Storm

Still not at all excited looking at today's output, just a typical cool nw'erly for a couple of days which might deliver brief slushy snow for some, not much difference to a standard cold sector we get in a zonal flow several times every winter. After Thursday and Friday there's still no real trend but at the moment looking like a return to the current gloom

LEIN

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/1934956090060816/

pedigree 6

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Still not at all excited looking at today's output, just a typical cool nw'erly for a couple of days which might deliver brief slushy snow for some, not much difference to a standard cold sector we get in a zonal flow several times every winter. After Thursday and Friday there's still no real trend but at the moment looking like a return to the current gloom

Cheer up mate.:p

If it's frost you like we're getting plenty of it after Friday.

This is weather model watching. Where men are men and others collect stamps.:D