Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Pangea

I was told that there was snow in Ireland this day in 1972, here's a chart from that day, anyone care to explain what this archive chart shows us? Tks

nagdefy

Pangea wrote: »

I was told that there was snow in Ireland this day in 1972, here's a chart from that day, anyone care to explain what this archive chart shows us? Tks

It's a similar setup to 10 days ago when the north and west had snow showers. Nothing major for most areas and low lying areas. Looks like a brief cold snap.

nacho libre

ArKl0w wrote: »

Murr is a jinx on snow
I swear whenever he's on there hope casting,the opposite always happens

**Cough**

He is in a rather confident mood tonight.

Evening All

For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the Cold solution is correct -

Today is one of those rare occasions ( last seen nearly 4 years ago ) when what I see developing in the models & more importantly 'how' its developing gives me near 100% confidence that we will see things panning out close to the ECM -

Lets recollect the last time this happened & pick these 4 days...

Fiskar

nacho libre wrote: »

**Cough**

He is in a rather confident mood tonight.

Evening All

For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the Cold solution is correct -

Today is one of those rare occasions ( last seen nearly 4 years ago ) when what I see developing in the models & more importantly 'how' its developing gives me near 100% confidence that we will see things panning out close to the ECM -

Lets recollect the last time this happened & pick these 4 days...

Don't recall snow in 2013? Lovely mild dry weather here, Spring is nearly here, daffodils are 8 cm up already.

ninebeanrows

nacho libre wrote: »

**Cough**

He is in a rather confident mood tonight.

Evening All

For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the Cold solution is correct -

Today is one of those rare occasions ( last seen nearly 4 years ago ) when what I see developing in the models & more importantly 'how' its developing gives me near 100% confidence that we will see things panning out close to the ECM -

Lets recollect the last time this happened & pick these 4 days...

I kind of agree. It is one of these events where I could see further upgrades occurring. It would appear the models are beginning to pick up on some major changes in the medium term. Usually we chase cold from 240/216 and it gets downgraded. Here is it is beginning much earlier (120-168) and on the EC op trend gaining significant momentum. It could be a situation that by Friday we are facing into significant cold spell at T72/T96. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The 0z EC will be watched with great interest.

nacho libre

Weathercheck wrote: »

I kind of agree. It is one of these events where I could see further upgrades occurring. It would appear the models are beginning to pick up on some major changes in the medium term. Usually we chase cold from 240/216 and it gets downgraded. Here is it is beginning much earlier (120-168) and on the EC op trend gaining significant momentum. It could be a situation that by Friday we are facing into significant cold spell at T72/T96. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The 0z EC will be watched with great interest.

That's true it has bucked the trend/theme of this winter in showing the cold at an earlier time frame. It's also worth noting a couple of UKMO employees on twitter have suggested something interesting may transpire in early February due to the ongoing stratospheric warming.

Meteorite58

The Atlantic Seaboard getting a fair share of wind tomorrow and increasing in the evening and overnight into Thurs for a time. Kerry looks very windy Weds evening into early Thurs morning and gets the rain clipping the coast as the front stalls not making much headway. Winds will seem different here in Kerry coming predominately from a S'ly and then Se'ly direction for over 40 hrs.

Oscar Bravo

certainly is going to be a windy(and damp) day in the west. Knock TAF giving wind at 170 degrees at 26 knots gusting 40 knots.

Graces7

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

certainly is going to be a windy(and damp) day in the west. Knock TAF giving wind at 170 degrees at 26 knots gusting 40 knots.

Listening to the wind howing around the house.

JCX BXC

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

certainly is going to be a windy(and damp) day in the west. Knock TAF giving wind at 170 degrees at 26 knots gusting 40 knots.

That's not valid until after midnight.

Looks to get progressively windier throughout the day.

Oscar Bravo

A damp wet morning here in castlebar in strong southerly wind

pad199207

Some very strong gusts in Kildare this morning. Seems unusual

twinkletoes

pad199207 wrote: »

Some very strong gusts in Kildare this morning. Seems unusual

Yes to hear wind today has been strange..its been such a calm winter in comparison to last winter's wind fest'! I'm probably speaking too soon..winter's not over yet!

Graces7

twinkletoes wrote: »

Yes to hear wind today has been strange..its been such a calm winter in comparison to last winter's wind fest'! I'm probably speaking too soon..winter's not over yet!

Really strong winds up here now. The first full gale in a new place... Strange rattles...Watching clouds skim the mountain tops behind the house...

nagdefy

Graces7 wrote: »

Really strong winds up here now. The first full gale in a new place... Strange rattles...Watching clouds skim the mountain tops behind the house...

Feels windy here too. Makes us realise how lucky we've been with a lack of serious storms this winter. Looking at all the models it looks like we'll be fortunate to escape a major storm hitting some part, if not all, the island in early February.

Graces7

nagdefy wrote: »

Feels windy here too. Makes us realise how lucky we've been with a lack of serious storms this winter. Looking at all the models it looks like we'll be fortunate to escape a major storm hitting some part, if not all, the island in early February.

We shall see.. had a very narrow margin re the snow and ice when I was moving... well stocked up here now....West Connaught, in the lee of heights that awe me.... Just now roaring away.

Oscar Bravo

National Weather Warnings (updated)

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
Update on previous warning.
South to southeast winds will increase strong to gale force and gusty in coastal counties of Ireland today. These winds will persist overnight and into tomorrow Thursday. Mean winds of 55 to 65 km/h are expected, with gusts of 90 to 110 km/h at times. Winds will be at their strongest overnight and for a time tomorrow, in southwestern, western and northwestern coastal counties.

Issued:Wednesday 25 January 2017 09:00
Valid:Wednesday 25 January 2017 10:00 to Thursday 26 January 2017 15:00


STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Cork and Kerry
Rain will turn heavy later tonight and will continue through Thursday. 30 to 50 mm of rain are likely over west Cork and over south and west Kerry. Some larger totals are possible on the mountains.

Issued:Wednesday 25 January 2017 12:00
Valid:Thursday 26 January 2017 06:00 to Friday 27 January 2017 06:00

sryanbruen

It may have been windy but it has been another beautiful day here with plenty of sunshine yet again and feeling rather Summer-like despite the wind .

highdef

sryanbruen wrote: »

feeling rather Summer-like despite the wind .

I didn't feel anything summer like earlier when out in the strong breeze. I think Dublin AP topped out at 11c and Casement got to 10c....... add another 10c to that and I might just begin contemplating considering it slight summer like.:p

sryanbruen

highdef wrote: »

I didn't feel anything summer like earlier when out in the strong breeze. I think Dublin AP topped out at 11c and Casement got to 10c....... add another 10c to that and I might just begin contemplating considering it slight summer like.:p

The sun made it feel summer-like here. Again, here's that micro climate of mine :rolleyes:.

JCX BXC

No rain today, strange, persistent rain was forecasted for here yesterday.

kneemos

Must be close to a drought in the east at this stage?

Xenji

Persistent misty rain for most of the day in Castlebar, gusts have really picked up since 6 also.

sryanbruen

kneemos wrote: »

Must be close to a drought in the east at this stage?

I think I can call it a drought at my area with every month since October drier than normal whilst August & September were very unremarkably wet (only wet overall because of very wet days) and July was very dry. I haven't had such a spell of dry months since 2005/06.

JCX BXC

I'm pretty sure it's only a drought if there's no rain, not if there's "less than average".

Harry Palmr

Dry, overcast with a general light breeze containing sudden gusts when it suddenly felt like winter. Looks like the Deise will be all but dry for the rest of the week unless that front makes it this far during Friday

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

I'm pretty sure it's only a drought if there's no rain, not if there's "less than average".

That's a MONTHLY DROUGHT. In Ireland, we recorded a severe drought from October 1974 - August 1976. Now do you think there was no rainfall at all during that period :P?

Monthly droughts have occurred in for example (at least one station):

April 2015, September 2014, June 2014, July 2013, March 2012, April 2011.

Anyway, this so far has been the driest Winter on record here with less than 30% of the LTA rainfall so far. February will bring it up to like 70% of how it's looking right now.

The start of February is looking very wet.

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

I'm pretty sure it's only a drought if there's no rain, not if there's "less than average".

No, drought conditions can result from simply less than average rainfall, if it causes shortages in water supply.

Supercell

kneemos wrote: »

Must be close to a drought in the east at this stage?

Today will be the 16th day in a row with 0.2mm or less measured here, so in the south county Dublin area at least we are experiencing an "absolute drought" currently.

DOCARCH

Supercell wrote: »

Today will be the 16th day in a row with 0.2mm or less measured here, so in the south county Dublin area at least we are experiencing an "absolute drought" currently.

Just 7.8mm here in Dublin 16 so far this January. Last recorded rain was the 13th (and just 0.2mm).

BTW, possibly/probably related to the lack of rain, I think there is a big gorse or forest fire in the Dublin Mountains at the moment. Quite a bit of smoke here.

Edit: A quick Google confirmed the smell! http://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/dublin-fire-brigade-responding-massive-12508114