Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Gonzo

first proper rain of the year last night, rained most of the night. Very mild today as well, almost feels mild enough to wear a t-shirt.

Signs in FI of a potential easterly but like most cold spells will probably be gone off the charts by this evening.

JCX BXC

Lashing here in West Clare, 9.8mm/h currently given on the weather station, 1.6mm since the shower started a few minutes ago.

sryanbruen

A very similar day to yesterday here with the odd drizzle from time to time. Cloudy and mild all the while but feeling cool. I find this the worst type of weather.

OldRio

Warm night last night followed by a lovely spring like afternoon. Much better than most of last Summer to be honest.

Location... lovely Leitrim.

sryanbruen

Chance of easterlies is back on the long range outlook? I'm not jumping on the hype train 'til I get told a day before it happens.

Meteorite58

SW getting some strong winds for a time tomorrow morning ( might warrant Kerry getting a yellow warning ?) . Rainfall amounts heaviest in the S and W. Relatively Mild ( very mild early Thurs morning).

squarecircles

Chance of stormy weather has vanished,as it did last week,and now it could be getting colder,I'm sure it will all have flipped again by midnight.

I just wish some form of interesting weather would occur.

Gonzo

squarecircles wrote: »

Chance of stormy weather has vanished,as it did last week,and now it could be getting colder,I'm sure it will all have flipped again by midnight.

I just wish some form of interesting weather would occur.

not sure which I want more, no storms or an easterly. both are good.

I really hate wind and rain events, we seem them so much in this country I find it odd to get excited over wind or rain.

Meteorite58

Good graphics.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/826428849223237632

JCX BXC

Gonzo wrote: »

not sure which I want more, no storms or an easterly. both are good.

I really hate wind and rain events, we seem them so much in this country I find it odd to get excited over wind or rain.

Seen feck all storms this winter.

Gonzo

JCX BXC wrote: »

Seen feck all storms this winter.

that is true, but most other Winters at least 5+ wind and rain events. Im sure most of the country is breathing a sigh of relief from them this winter.

JCX BXC

Gonzo wrote: »

that is true, but most other Winters at least 5+ wind and rain events. Im sure most of the country is breathing a sigh of relief from them this winter.

The storms are why I look forward to the winter.

pedigree 6

Foggy here in Wexford.
The type of fog that you can taste. Like being in a sauna.

pedigree 6

Ok one more.:D

(It's a great night for sticking a light on a car roof and getting a pic of it).:pac:

JCX BXC

Fog is so mystical, I love it!

Oops69

Gonzo wrote: »

that is true, but most other Winters at least 5+ wind and rain events. Im sure most of the country is breathing a sigh of relief from them this winter.

And its a relief not to have Ciaran mullooooooooly on Rte moaning and getting hysterical about the floods in a flood plain by the shannon in athlone.

squarecircles

Tumbleweed* ....prospects for cold later next week gone tits up??? MT says a brief glancing blow,with the cold stalling over the uk...

Gonzo

squarecircles wrote: »

Tumbleweed* ....prospects for cold later next week gone tits up??? MT says a brief glancing blow,with the cold stalling over the uk...

Friday 10th-13th February are looking decent, a short spell of snow showers in the east.

Not getting in any way excited till within the 24 hour timeframe, most likely this will go pear-shaped for us anyway.

Xenji

Yellow Warning for Wind.

Wind Warning for Ireland
Southeasterly winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 60km/h with gusts of 80 to 100km/h, strongest at the coasts.

Issued:Wednesday 01 February 2017 09:00
Valid:Thursday 02 February 2017 00:01 to Friday 03 February 2017 06:00

JCX BXC

Saturday night looking cold.

Saturday night will be very cold with a widespread sharp or severe frost and icy patches. Lowest temperatures of 0 to -5 degrees.

BLIZZARD7

squarecircles wrote: »

Tumbleweed* ....prospects for cold later next week gone tits up??? MT says a brief glancing blow,with the cold stalling over the uk...

Not at all, I imagine he is just being cautious until its within a closer time frame. Of course the cold could stall out over the UK or not even reach there but we wont know those details for a few days yet. Currently there is a decent chance of the cold air reaching us as per the last few OP runs from the models. Interesting times as this potential cold appears to be before any possible Stratospheric warming effect.

Come the 10th of February we could be sitting under a boring high pressure as France gets a brutal cold shot, or we could be experiencing a Feb 1991 re-run.

Poulgorm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Come the 10th of February we could be sitting under a boring high pressure as France gets a brutal cold shot, or we could be experiencing a Feb 1991 re-run.

What happened in February 1991?

force eleven

Poulgorm wrote: »

What happened in February 1991?

Brief snowy spell mostly over the East, early Feb. Rest of the month forgettable though. UK had a more severe spell as you would expect,in an easterly influenced spell.

fraxinus1

So I see MT has all but ruled out any chance of the supposed cold spell reaching Ireland. I think at this stage it's time we concentrated on spring and forget about any exciting weather. Even the depressions in the Atlantic over the next few days aren't going to impact us. For weather fans it's been the most boring winter ever, for everyone else it's been a godsend.

Gonzo

fraxinus1 wrote: »

So I see MT has all but ruled out any chance of the supposed cold spell reaching Ireland. I think at this stage it's time we concentrated on spring and forget about any exciting weather. Even the depressions in the Atlantic over the next few days aren't going to impact us. For weather fans it's been the most boring winter ever, for everyone else it's been a godsend.

there is still a small chance of cold and snow from the east in 9/10 days time.

Gonzo

force eleven wrote: »

Brief snowy spell mostly over the East, early Feb. Rest of the month forgettable though. UK had a more severe spell as you would expect,in an easterly influenced spell.

that spell was very decent. It was the last regular spell of easterly snow we received here. From 1992 onwards easterly's have been few and far between with huge gaps between one snow event and the next.

The spell in 1991 brought days of driving snow here, I was off school for at least a week and built a snow mountain in the back garden which took 3 weeks to finally melt.!

q85dw7osi4lebg

fraxinus1 wrote: »

So I see MT has all but ruled out any chance of the supposed cold spell reaching Ireland. I think at this stage it's time we concentrated on spring and forget about any exciting weather. Even the depressions in the Atlantic over the next few days aren't going to impact us. For weather fans it's been the most boring winter ever, for everyone else it's been a godsend.

This is the Winter Weather thread so we should probably stay focused on Winter for the time being

squarecircles

gfs has that nasty storm smashing into northern france again on sunday.

nacho libre

Its clear the first wave warming is showing its hand already in the troposphere.

I see why MT gave the cautious forecast he did now, it looks like Ireland is too far west to get the snowy cold, even the UK could miss out if the high end up too far north or east.

Then again maybe this will be the one time out of 10, it goes right for us, and, after the initial snowing easterly, we will see a build of high pressure to the north west after mid month, due to the second warming splitting the pv favourably.

John.Icy

Yeah it looks as if attempt one at cold may see some snow in parts of the UK but for us it looks more and more likely that we are just far west to pull in proper cold during the first undercut event around +150h onwards here - but this is a very fluid situation still and some runs have a more favorable slide and see Ireland see colder uppers with good snow potential.

Ideal evolution would be as per the GFS 12z with heights developing to our NW - much greater chance of severe cold and NE/ENE winds (quicker route to cold barring a Northerly but some severe cold over parts of Europe to be tapped into in the next while). Very early days regards what happens post the first disruption/undercut still anyway but as of now we are still 'go' for some colder weather and risk of snow as February continues - barring a complete flip in model output but that would NEVER happen.