Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Rougies

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

And to help clarify things even more. The euro4 puts the heavy stuff between the two of them. (On mobile can't post chart)

Yeah here it is. Hopefully this evening's runs will clear things up a bit.

pad199207

Gust of 70KPH here in Kildare now

lucernarian

It looks like missing here, and the temperatures as forecast would need to be lower for low level snow. it's a very bullish prediction from Met Eireann, I'd suspect it's >300 metres asl that would have lying snow and picking the euro4 outcome, only on the Mourne mountains.

Nasty-looking storm for France this weekend though

Rougies

lucernarian wrote: »

It looks like missing here, and the temperatures as forecast would need to be lower for low level snow. it's a very bullish prediction from Met Eireann, I'd suspect it's >300 metres asl that would have lying snow and picking the euro4 outcome, only on the Mourne mountains.

Nasty-looking storm for France this weekend though

They've backtracked back a bit in the latest web update. It sounds more reasonable now.

Tomorrow

Bright on Friday morning, with sunny spells and just a few showers, these mainly in Atlantic coastal areas. But rain is set to develop in the southeast around lunchtime. This will then affect eastern coastal counties through the afternoon and evening, turning heavy, with some sleet on hills by early evening. Elsewhere, the showers will become more widespread. Top temperatures of 6 to 9 C., but values will fall quickly in the heavy rain, in the east.

Outlook

Friday night will bring outbreaks of rain, heavy in places with the risk of sleet or snow especially in the east on high ground.

On Saturday morning, the rain and any sleet or snow will clear northwards. The rest of the day will be bright with sunny spells and just a few showers in the west. Highest temperatures of 5 to 7 degrees with light southwest breezes. Saturday night will be very cold with a widespread sharp or severe frost and icy patches. Lowest temperatures of 0 to -5 degrees.

pad199207

Winds are howling here in Kildare now.

ninebeanrows

Forecast is very difficult. Heavy precip needs to be in place for the evaporative cooling to occur plus offshore winds. This will drop the temperatures. At the moment models differ drastically with regard precip positioning, intensity etc. Safest bet at moment is for rain to affect easy Leinster and turn to snow above c. 250m. 10-20% risk widespread snow to low levels thus dropped from forecast.

sryanbruen

Atrociously windy day here and miserably wet, not even that heavy, just on and off.

squarecircles

Still calm here in Mayo,the winds forecast are weak as p*ss though,from a west coast perspective.

Reckless Abandonment

Typical first good storm of the winter here in south dublin and it takes the fence with it. Thankfully not built by me so at least the wife won't cause another storm when she see it.

Oscar Bravo

Pat clarke on rte radio 1 there. rain may fall as sleet on hills in Leinster tomorrow evening.

ninebeanrows

He crucially didn't talk about tomorrow night. Probably too much uncertainty...

pad199207

Judging by the radar a small secondary low moved up through Leinster this evening. Quite tight rotation by the looks of it. It also occurred when we had some severe gusts here in Kildare.

Clonmel1000

Horrible horrible day wind and rain. I know we were taught spring as starting on Feb 1 but realistically our spring starts around Paddy's Day.

Oscar Bravo

Low pressure directly west of clare island now. Belmullet 965hpa

Darwin

Yes the wind pattern is forming a nice semi-circle (as shown on xcweather.co.uk) from south to north on the west coast.
I expect the wind to pick up again for a while as the low pulls away in a north west direction.

Oscar Bravo

Showing up nicely

lucernarian

The evaporative cooling will be even less pronounced given the time of day (night) that's of interest. Would love to see some of the ECMWF data to compare with the euro4. I assume some of the unpredictability stems from the somewhat odd LP over Ireland today and the block not far away.

Will be good to see what model ended up performing the best in the t+48 window for this less familiar scenario.

Rougies

lucernarian wrote: »

The evaporative cooling will be even less pronounced given the time of day (night) that's of interest. Would love to see some of the ECMWF data to compare with the euro4. I assume some of the unpredictability stems from the somewhat odd LP over Ireland today and the block not far away.

Will be good to see what model ended up performing the best in the t+48 window for this less familiar scenario.

ECM 12z has shifted the precip further east, the heavy stuff just clipping the coast.



HIRLAM has also shifted east, but still showing heavy precip over east coastal counties.

NMM and GFS have stayed much the same as previous runs with precip way out east over western Britain.

EURO4 much the same as this morning keeping the heaviest precip in the Irish Sea.

So still some uncertainty but looks to be trending east unfortunately. I wasn't expecting any low level lying snow anyway, but would be nice to see some falling with a possible trip to the mountains to get a fix.

Meteorite58

After calming somewhat this afternoon wind on the rise again and getting frequent short quick passing showers also here in Kerry atm. Set to be quite windy for a few hours and decreasing again in the early hours. Lowest Barometer reading today 965.2 hPa at 14.35

JCX BXC

Same here in West Clare, Wind switched to SW and increasing in strength here in West Clare, heavy shower just now.

Rain today so far 2.6mm,
Pressure currently 970.4hPa and low of 965.0 hPa at 14:36.

Meteorite58

JCX BXC wrote: »

Same here in West Clare, Wind switched to SW and increasing in strength here in West Clare, heavy shower just now.

Rain today so far 2.6mm,
Pressure currently 970.4hPa and low of 965.0 hPa at 14:36.

Wow Barometers closely calibrated or what

8mm so far here

Nabber

Calm in Dublin 4

arctictree

Weathercheck wrote: »

Forecast is very difficult. Heavy precip needs to be in place for the evaporative cooling to occur plus offshore winds. This will drop the temperatures. At the moment models differ drastically with regard precip positioning, intensity etc. Safest bet at moment is for rain to affect easy Leinster and turn to snow above c. 250m. 10-20% risk widespread snow to low levels thus dropped from forecast.

Exactly 250M here, 6 miles from the wicklow coast. Let's see what happens.

Meteorite58

Oscar Bravo

9pm. Kinsale gusting 58 knots(near 67mph). Sherkin 49 knots. Belmullet 42 knots.

red_bairn

"It's #GroundhogDay, and Punxsutawney Phil has predicted 6 more weeks of winter ⛄ http://cnn.it/2k133ab"
-
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/827261828346437632

:pac:

Winter up to my birthday I guess!

nagdefy

On the subject of winter weather here's a pdf from the Leinster Express on the Night of the Big Wind 6th January 1839 in Dublin and around Ireland. It's a clip from a January 1839 edition. Column entitled The Late Storm. Serious storm!!

P.s. You can zoom in the bottom right corner to make the text larger.

Graces7

Last night was an abomination up here....temper tantrums in full celestial throes. Suddenly gone very quiet thankfully.

The gale noise incredible and gusts deafening..

fraxinus1

Big downgrade in Met Eireann's forecast. The talk of snow for eastern areas and the potential for very windy weather in the west for Monday is no longer mentioned. Looks like yesterday evening's 'storm' is about as exciting as things will get for us.

Graces7

Just been outside and the last heavy shower was hail in abundance. Still intact ice on the edges.

Sky is those deep indigo clouds and heavy looking. Would not be surprised at anything that falls today.

West Connaught