Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Rebelbrowser

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

lads is the rain band currently over the country the main event for today, not much rain from it here at the minute, and looks a good clearance behind it

Biblical stuff here in Cork....

weatherfiend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Biblical stuff here in Cork....

Here in Dublin too. Nothing like the gorgeous crisp sunny day of yesterday but it's freezing in the rain. Thought my hands were going to fall off after I walked the dogs. Even they were desperate to get in out of it

Graces7

Sounds like galemageddon out there, with drumming rain .. why oh why did I not bring the fuel in for the fire last night....

West Connaught.

arctictree

Just had a look at the 06z GFS there. Looking very cold and snowy for the east for Friday and the weekend. Big change on the way. Although a slight change in pressure could leave us just cold and dry.

red_bairn

arctictree wrote: »

Just had a look at the 06z GFS there. Looking very cold and snowy for the east for Friday and the weekend. Big change on the way. Although a slight change in pressure could leave us just cold and dry.

When should everything look quite promising? 48hrs in (MET.ie timing)?

riggerman

Roads flooding here 10 km north of bandon. Rain woke me up at 4 this morning, has not let up since. Weird to say but I missed this type of weather after the bland winter so far

ninebeanrows

The beauty is the developing easterly is just around 60-72hrs away. We are seeing a consistent trend to bring the cold further south and west across Ireland run to run.

By tomorrow ... We could be 48 hours from the beginning of a prolonged cold spell.

BLIZZARD7

Weathercheck wrote: »

The beauty is the developing easterly is just around 60-72hrs away. We are seeing a consistent trend to bring the cold further south and west across Ireland run to run.

By tomorrow ... We could be 48 hours from the beginning of a prolonged cold spell.

Indeed, the 6z gfs goes on to develop the type of pattern that dumps a lot of snow on eastern counties...shades of 47'... one can dream

snowstreams

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Indeed, the 6z gfs goes on to develop the type of pattern that dumps a lot of snow on eastern counties...shades of 47'... one can dream

What setup can dump (10 inch plus) snow along the west coast?
I presume just a nationwide snow even really? Although I did read somewhere that Connemara had big blizzards in 1947.

Meteorite58

Heavy band of rain just clearing kerry, heading across the country, very windy early morning getting up to 76 Km/h.

fraxinus1

According to MT the temperature will start to rise after the weekend so is talk of a prolonged cold spell premature? The ECM is also not biting and there's nothing like the ECM to when it comes to Atlantic muck.

fryup

lashing out of the heavens here in east clare

BLIZZARD7

fraxinus1 wrote: »

According to MT the temperature will start to rise after the weekend so is talk of a prolonged cold spell premature? The ECM is also not biting and there's nothing like the ECM to when it comes to Atlantic muck.

We most definitely need the ECM on board and I would be very surprised if it hasn't started looking more like the GFS/UKMO by this evening. Background signals would support a decent cold spell (MJO/strat etc) but to be honest given the changes we are seeing in output in the short term I would take anything beyond +144hrs with a big pinch of Salt. Things are definitely trending the right way however.

Not one of the GEFS members has the atlantic back in control next week.

I expect more slight upgrades on the 12z's and for the ECM to come more in line with the GFS/UKMO.

KingdomRushed

Extremely stormy conditions around Dublin Bay currently. Seems more 'orange warning' windspeeds than 'yellow warning' to me?

KingdomRushed

Weathercheck wrote: »

The beauty is the developing easterly is just around 60-72hrs away. We are seeing a consistent trend to bring the cold further south and west across Ireland run to run.

By tomorrow ... We could be 48 hours from the beginning of a prolonged cold spell.

I am totally in agreement with 'WCheck on this. I haven't been as pleasantly surprised by a set of ensembles since 2010 as I was with the GFS this morning. It has been a long time since I can recall a cold trend upgrading steadily as t0 approaches. Of the ensembles, I believe 100% of them had Ireland in an easterly or at worst south easterly air-flow by 96 hours or so, with many going on to develop a prolonged cold spell of exceeding rarity.
This for me is a truly fascinating upcoming period of weather. I cannot wait to see the 12z model runs. 

I would note the ECM is not on board however, while showing the onset of continental cold air in the near-term, the operational run quickly turns this into a directly southern sourced feed of air from north africa by Day 7 as the sandinavian high pressure slides east and south. Hopefully it is the outlier it appears to be.

DOCARCH

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Extremely stormy conditions around Dublin Bay currently. Seems more 'orange warning' windspeeds than 'yellow warning' to me?

Yeah, very stormy here in Dublin 16. It's bin day too, so there is green bin mayhem! You'd nearly need safety helmet to venture out!!!

ninebeanrows

Gusting 60kt in Dublin Bay buoy now.

60kt would have to be recorded on land to warrant an orange level warn

nacho libre

fraxinus1 wrote: »

According to MT the temperature will start to rise after the weekend so is talk of a prolonged cold spell premature? The ECM is also not biting and there's nothing like the ECM to when it comes to Atlantic muck.

Yes. Caution is advised. A snowy easterly can easily vanish within 48 hours.

I think the ECM has the best verification stats of all the models. It has led us up the garden before with cold outputs, so it would be just our luck if it was to be right this time with its springtime charts.
As for M.T. Cranium, he could be right, he obviously is siding with the ECM, and of course using his own intuition and experience,
that the polar vortex won't budge from Greenland, hence his assertion the Atlantic will take over after a while.

However not many outputs show the Atlantic being active, the opposite in fact. Hopefully the ECM will be the one to backtrack towards what the GFS is showing rather than the other way around.

JCX BXC

When most of these orange warnings are issued they are for western regions, with Dublin on yellow warnings, so while the wind may seem like a past storm when the west had a orange warning, keep in mind the wind this time is evenly distributed.

sryanbruen

I expect a January 2013 like cold spell with the Atlantic breaking in at times bringing heavy rain to Ireland and the UK having blizzards

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

I expect a January 2013 like cold spell with the Atlantic breaking in at times bringing heavy rain to Ireland and the UK having blizzards

really hope that doesn't happen, that's the ultimate kick in the teeth for snow lovers in Ireland.

fraxinus1

sryanbruen wrote:

I expect a January 2013 like cold spell with the Atlantic breaking in at times bringing heavy rain to Ireland and the UK having blizzards

That's exactly the scenario I am expecting. I always fear the worst when ever Atlantic fronts are expected to hit cold air over Ireland... very rarely do they produce snow and any that does fall is thawed rapidly with the temperature rise that follows the band of precipitation.

Gonzo

fraxinus1 wrote: »

That's exactly the scenario I am expecting. I always fear the worst when ever Atlantic fronts are expected to hit cold air over Ireland... very rarely do they produce snow and any that does fall is thawed rapidly with the temperature rise that follows the band of precipitation.

yet it always magically falls as snow as soon as the front hits England, Scotland and even Wales. Sometimes even large parts of Northern Ireland gets snow while the republic get's rain.

ninebeanrows

A very windy afternoon.

Malin Head is gusting to 60kt

Casement 51kt

Dublin airport 49kt.

Yellow warning levels justified.

Meteorite58

Sun out in Tralee , wind eased somewhat , feeling mild at 12 - 13C approx

Graces7

Wind has greatly eased here in West Connaught... rain has stopped.

The mountains are bare of snow, but the silver seams of water flowing are strong and full.

I cannot forecast ( although my 2 last words re snow!) but I can report.

Lovely the peace now.

power pants

Met eireann has mentioned nothing regarding snow on breaking news.ie

Said, stormy earlier this morning but heading towards Iceland. Afternoon clearer and clear skies

Frost later overnight

Looks like boards are incorrect regarding the snow on this occasion

arctictree

power pants wrote: »

Met eireann has mentioned nothing regarding snow on breaking news.ie

Said, stormy earlier this morning but heading towards Iceland. Afternoon clearer and clear skies

Frost later overnight

Looks like boards are incorrect regarding the snow on this occasion

Who said anything about snow today?

nagdefy

Really dirty auld day here. Heavy rain and 4C in Ardough, Laois.

power pants

arctictree wrote: »

power pants wrote: »

Met eireann has mentioned nothing regarding snow on breaking news.ie

Said, stormy earlier this morning but heading towards Iceland. Afternoon clearer and clear skies

Frost later overnight

Looks like boards are incorrect regarding the snow on this occasion

Who said anything about snow today?

Misread the last couple of pages, my mistake. Apologies