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Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion
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Harry Palmr wrote: »Baltic though sunny until mid afternoon in Limerick, rainy now in Waterford. Quite heavy burst a little while ago. Can't wait until midweek and 12-14C
Enjoy it while you can Harry Palmr, because there maybe a chilly end to the month0 -
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When was the last winter that the QBO was in an easterly phase? Would be interesting to see how it affected not just our weather, but the north Atlantic pattern general.
Winter 2014/15 but even that Winter had the westerly QBO trying to undercut it. You'd have to go back to Winter 2012/13 for a proper easterly QBO. Winter 2009/10 was similar to 2014/15 but remember that then you had very weak solar activity compared to near solar maximum in 2014/15.
Here is the QBO for previous years:
Westerly QBO is shown by black colours and easterly QBO is shown by white colours.
Interesting how Winter 2007/08 was certainly an easterly QBO yet it was a very mild Winter in Ireland but of course then, we were just entering solar minimum and it takes a few years for cold Winters to take place after solar minimum.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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sryanbruen wrote: »Winter 2014/15 but even that Winter had the westerly QBO trying to undercut it. You'd have to go back to Winter 2012/13 for a proper easterly QBO. Winter 2009/10 was similar to 2014/15 but remember that then you had very weak solar activity compared to near solar maximum in 2014/15.
Here is the QBO for previous years:
Westerly QBO is shown by black colours and easterly QBO is shown by white colours.
Interesting how Winter 2007/08 was certainly an easterly QBO yet it was a very mild Winter in Ireland but of course then, we were just entering solar minimum and it takes a few years for cold Winters to take place after solar minimum.
Thanks for that Syran. I admit that looking at that graph, I still find it little confusing despite your explanation.
I am going to have a look at some stats later, but as you point out, even in 2007-2008, while the QBO was in full easterly mode, we still had a mild winter, which, as you say, may have been down bigger forces.
This is where my problem lies. We could focus on the QBO to try and find some sort of correlation with winter patterns, but then something will come along to override that, like the El Nino or some other obscure index, which in turn will have their influence overridden by something else! To be honest, too much focus on these things can wreak your head and they end up proving to be useless anyway in trying to make a general prediction for the Winter (or any other season).New Moon
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Thanks for that Syran. I admit that looking at that graph, I still find it little confusing despite your explanation.
I am going to have a look at some stats later, but as you point out, even in 2007-2008, while the QBO was in full easterly mode, we still had a mild winter, which, as you say, may have been down bigger forces.
This is where my problem lies. We could focus on the QBO to try and find some sort of correlation with winter patterns, but then something will come along to override that, like the El Nino or some other obscure index, which in turn will have their influence overridden by something else! To be honest, too much focus on these things can wreak your head and they end up proving to be useless anyway in trying to make a general prediction for the Winter (or any other season).
In Ireland, you can never rely a weather prediction on just one factor :P. There are a ton of factors to consider for a cold Winter:
- Negative AO
- Negative NAO
- Weak solar activity (especially coming out of solar minimum)
- Easterly QBO
- Tri-pole in the North Atlantic in May (warm to the North-North Atlantic, cold to the Central-North Atlantic and warm to the South-North Atlantic, if you get me
)
- Good accumulations of snowfall in Scandinavia in October
- Sudden stratospheric warming
- Moderate El Nino
- Weak La Nina (a moderate La Nina can also produce cold weather but only rarely as shown by Winter 2010/11)
- Retrogression of a high pressure to Greenland
- Southerly tracking jet stream
- Azores High destroyed
There are still a lot more :P, just goes to show ya how complicated and difficult long range weather forecasting in Ireland can be.
Yeah so, even if we have an easterly QBO, we have a lot of other factors to consider. For example, in Winter 2007/08 during said easterly QBO, we had a moderate La Nina which like I said above can produce cold weather for us but is very rare to do so, so that could have had an effect on the easterly QBO. Instead, whilst they were not especially cold months, March and April 2008 recorded snowfall in parts :P.
I think reasons for this Winter being such a huge fail has been because of how one of the oscillations (AO or NAO) has been positive yet the other negative, the fact that there was no tri-pole last May and of course, the QBO which is very superior compared to any other year we've seen.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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