Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Gavlor

Eamondomc wrote: »

Wasn't expecting this, but snowing heavily here now.

Where?

Oscar Bravo

hes near the Longford Cavan border

Graces7

Glad to see on the met.ie pages that the temp is due to rise tonight.. bitter cold still and a gale at the door. Not been out yet and all is dark out there.

snaps

At last here it looks like getting warmer. Yesterday was 0c and felt so warm. Snow now melting in the warm sunshine, but in the shade everything is frozen solid still.

This morning is cold, -13 currently but sun is already doing its job.

Wood and coal getting low, but at least the pressure is off heating the house during these sunny days.

By Wednesday here, it should be spring like after a hardish winter.

Southern Poland, Beskidy mountains.

sryanbruen

It's far from Spring like here this morning. Absolute bitter with a minimum of -2.9c, colder than what was expected.

Eamondomc

Damp, windy, cold but not near as severe as the last couple of days, the snow from last night completely gone. Same scene this morning.

DOCARCH

sryanbruen wrote: »

It's far from Spring like here this morning. Absolute bitter with a minimum of -2.9c, colder than what was expected.

Are you sure your thermo did not fall into the freezer? :pac:

Temp at Dublin AP was 5c increasing to 6c during the night?

sryanbruen

DOCARCH wrote: »

sryanbruen wrote: »

It's far from Spring like here this morning. Absolute bitter with a minimum of -2.9c, colder than what was expected.

Are you sure your thermo did not fall into the freezer? :pac:

Temp at Dublin AP was 5c increasing to 6c during the night?

I had thought so 😂

Rebelbrowser

The last 3 days have once again shown how damn difficult it is to get snow on this outcrop in the north atlantic surrounded by the mild gulf stream. I was outside for a couple of hours on Sunday morning wearing a thermal vest, a woollen shirt, a thin fleece top and a woollen overcoat, with fleece hat, and I couldn't stay warm as the wind was biting. I do know the scientific explanations for this but just from the man on the street point of view, its amazing we didn't get snow the last 3 days (and yes I know it was never really forecast, that this wasn't a true easterly, etc, etc).

Nabber

Sounds like you were standing out there in style

Doctor Shivering

Just to address Calibos's point in the other thread about this attached photo
That photo was taken on the road up from Aughavanagh to Drumgough last night,quite a distance from the top,I just included it to show people getting stuck
The about 15cms would have been at the top of that road
Also the road is very exposed so snow would not really have been settling on the road
Trust me all that was missing to make it look like a scene from fortitude last night would probably have been some rabid zombies
The 2nd photo at the top is also attached

Rebelbrowser

Nabber wrote: »

Sounds like you were standing out there in style

I thought I rocked the look alright.

Doctor Shivering

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

The last 3 days have once again shown how damn difficult it is to get snow on this outcrop in the north atlantic surrounded by the mild gulf stream. I was outside for a couple of hours on Sunday morning wearing a thermal vest, a woollen shirt, a thin fleece top and a woollen overcoat, with fleece hat, and I couldn't stay warm as the wind was biting. I do know the scientific explanations for this but just from the man on the street point of view, its amazing we didn't get snow the last 3 days (and yes I know it was never really forecast, that this wasn't a true easterly, etc, etc).

It was just a modified renegade pocket of Europes cold air as Gaoth Laidir explained earlier in the dedicated thread
The widespread precipitation yesterday was not well signposted at all by the forecasters
The fact it felt colder than it was ,mainly caused by wind chill
As contradictory as it seems,there ain't no cold like a thaw wind

KingdomRushed

Well, 13th February, and no further significant cold showing on model output this morning in the near term. One would say, well for me anyway, that the chance of a real freeze this winter is now fading fast. 
Strange winter that it was, we were tantalised all winter by blocking which was just too mid-latitude, when we did get an easterly it was short lived and pulling mediocre uppers from the continent. 
Dublin 3, still to see lying snow since December 2010 - over 6 years.

Gonzo

very mild 7-10 days coming up not just for Ireland, but the majority of the continent making it almost as far as Moscow with mild atlantic air. Only northern Scandinavia to remain cold.

Graces7

Gonzo wrote: »

very mild 7-10 days coming up not just for Ireland, but the majority of the continent making it almost as far as Moscow with mild atlantic air. Only northern Scandinavia to remain cold.

Sweet relief. West Co Galway quiet.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Thanks for that Syran. I admit that looking at that graph, I still find it little confusing despite your explanation.

I am going to have a look at some stats later, but as you point out, even in 2007-2008, while the QBO was in full easterly mode, we still had a mild winter, which, as you say, may have been down bigger forces.

This is where my problem lies. We could focus on the QBO to try and find some sort of correlation with winter patterns, but then something will come along to override that, like the El Nino or some other obscure index, which in turn will have their influence overridden by something else! To be honest, too much focus on these things can wreak your head and they end up proving to be useless anyway in trying to make a general prediction for the Winter (or any other season).

so what you are essentially saying Oneiric 3:) is that despite the super duper computers and vast array of technology at our disposal, we are still a long way from being able to know what the weather will be like past a week..

the experts over on netweather would argue the teleconnections get the broadscale picture get correct, but can't predict the precise weather that will occur as a result in our locale , so to me the mjo reaching force 8 , or the total level of AGM is rather meaningless then, you may as well just you look
at the weather stone if you want to know what the weather will be like.

Rougies

nacho libre wrote: »

so what you are essentially saying Oneiric 3:) is that despite the super duper computers and vast array of technology at our disposal, we are still a long way from being able to know what the weather will be like past a week..

the experts over on netweather would argue the teleconnections get the broadscale picture get correct, but can't predict the precise weather that will occur as a result in our locale , so to me the mjo reaching force 8 , or the total level of AGM is rather meaningless then, you may as well just you look
at the weather stone if you want to know what the weather will.

Imagine a rotating sphere that is 12,800 kilometers (8000 miles) in diameter, has a bumpy surface, is surrounded by a 40-kilometer-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and is heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 150 million kilometers (93 million miles) away. Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during one part of the revolution and other locations are heated during another part of the revolution. And imagine that this mixture of gases continually receives inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections. Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture, you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster (Ryan, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1982).


In fairness even though we can't perfectly predict the weather, the level of accuracy that is achieved with computer models is still amazing and evolving all the time. One factor that effects the accuracy of a model's output is it's input, ie. weather station and satellite data from around the world giving a snapshot of the current atmospheric conditions.

To get a decently accurate snapshot of the atmosphere, we'd probably need a perfectly calibrated weather station at points 1km apart all throughout the atmosphere. So that would be about 500 million km (surface area of the earth) x 40 km (height of the atmoshpere) = 20,400,000,000 weather stations.

Compare that with what we have, taking the oceans for example where the only readings are from a few buoys and ships, and vast areas of uninhabited land with one weather station covering 1000s of km^2.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

so what you are essentially saying Oneiric 3:) is that despite the super duper computers and vast array of technology at our disposal, we are still a long way from being able to know what the weather will be like past a week..

the experts over on netweather would argue the teleconnections get the broadscale picture get correct, but can't predict the precise weather that will occur as a result in our locale , so to me the mjo reaching force 8 , or the total level of AGM is rather meaningless then, you may as well just you look
at the weather stone if you want to know what the weather will be like.

About sums it up for me Nacho.

I don't read netweather but I would be sceptical of arguments that they can narrow down and forecast broad scale patterns based on all these countless teleconnections, at least for our side of the planet. For me, all these indexes, occurring in their various stages at any one time, just end up cancelling one another out with regards influences over the N. Atlantic.

I think the most important and probably most influential 'teleconnection' is the season itself, that is: Winter!

Graces7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

About sums it up for me Nacho.

I don't read netweather but I would be sceptical of arguments that they can narrow down and forecast broad scale patterns based on all these countless teleconnections, at least for our side of the planet. For me, all these indexes, occurring in their various stages at any one time, just end up cancelling one another out with regards influences over the N. Atlantic.

I think the most important and probably most influential 'teleconnection' is the season itself, that is: Winter!

Weather is a lottery.. which is what captivates and captures enthusiasts.

twinkletoes

The last few days have been the worst days of this winter here (kk/carlow border) imo...relentless howling, cutting wind and now heavy rain. Its the wind that's the unbearable part of our climate imo. We've gotten away so lightly this winter tho on all fronts...yes I would have loved a big fall of snow for sure but the lack of storms was a welcome relief..

Doctor Shivering

Very wet in Arklow today

Meanwhile this was Lug on Sunday,just beautiful
Pic courtesy of Wicklow weather and @whatsonwow

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

I remember growing up in the 70s when Winter was actually Winter and by that I mean getting up to walk to school only to be told that the school was closed because either all the pipes in the school were frozen so there was no heating or the roads were blocked because 5 or 6 foot of snow on the roads so the school buses couln'd get in rural areas to bring students into school. This happened on a number occasions and even into the early eighties. I have three teenage children one 19 year old and I don't even remember antything Iike i experienced in the 70s and 80s ever happened like roads been blocked by heavy snow or pipes been frozen. So as far as this Winter is concerned I believe we might get the odd cold snap but even at that we will be lucky to seee a hard frost never mind a few snow flakes especially where I live where used to get our fair share.

Macy0161

Google photo's telling me this day last year was ninja snow around Roundwood/ Annamoe/ Laragh. There was an IMRA race on Brockagh - the summit photo's were of the leaders in the sun, and the back of pack was in a heavy shower (I was mid pack!).

In fairness to comparisons to our youth - well I'd hope the school buildings have moved on. In terms of the roads, there's no comparison to the treatment of the roads for frost/ ice and snow compared to when I moved to Roundwood 15 or so years ago. Even 2010 the road was generally kept open, which I've no doubt wouldn't have been the case in the 80's. Days that would've caused disruption just don't as much anymore. I've no doubt the winters aren't as hard, but there's other factors at play in the lack of disruption too imo.

sryanbruen

Macy0161 wrote: »

Google photo's telling me this day last year was ninja snow around Roundwood/ Annamoe/ Laragh. There was an IMRA race on Brockagh - the summit photo's were of the leaders in the sun, and the back of pack was in a heavy shower (I was mid pack!).

In fairness to comparisons to our youth - well I'd hope the school buildings have moved on. In terms of the roads, there's no comparison to the treatment of the roads for frost/ ice and snow compared to when I moved to Roundwood 15 or so years ago. Even 2010 the road was generally kept open, which I've no doubt wouldn't have been the case in the 80's. Days that would've caused disruption just don't as much anymore. I've no doubt the winters aren't as hard, but there's other factors at play in the lack of disruption too imo.

As a matter of fact, Valentine's Day last year did record some flurries but nothing exciting.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Macy0161 wrote: »

Google photo's telling me this day last year was ninja snow around Roundwood/ Annamoe/ Laragh. There was an IMRA race on Brockagh - the summit photo's were of the leaders in the sun, and the back of pack was in a heavy shower (I was mid pack!).

In fairness to comparisons to our youth - well I'd hope the school buildings have moved on. In terms of the roads, there's no comparison to the treatment of the roads for frost/ ice and snow compared to when I moved to Roundwood 15 or so years ago. Even 2010 the road was generally kept open, which I've no doubt wouldn't have been the case in the 80's. Days that would've caused disruption just don't as much anymore. I've no doubt the winters aren't as hard, but there's other factors at play in the lack of disruption too imo.

I'm sure the school buildings have the latest technology installed to cope witha a big freeze if it ever happened but as far as the roads are concerned I know my local council have tons and tons of salt to treat the roads but for me the rural areas were and will always be the last places to receive the necessary help to cope with a big freeze or flooding. Even our airports and major roads in cities like Dublin, Cork, and Limerick can't cope if we get a major snowfall for one day. I'm a snow lover but all I have is those early meomeries I have posted in my previous post and sadly I Can't see myself having many more if I go by the last 7 or 8 Winters.

Graces7

It is lovely out there. Just wandered round with the dog and a sweet wild wind full of life and energy..

Gonzo

Tanner Slimy Sweater wrote: »

I remember growing up in the 70s when Winter was actually Winter and by that I mean getting up to walk to school only to be told that the school was closed because either all the pipes in the school were frozen so there was no heating or the roads were blocked because 5 or 6 foot of snow on the roads so the school buses couln'd get in rural areas to bring students into school. This happened on a number occasions and even into the early eighties. I have three teenage children one 19 year old and I don't even remember antything Iike i experienced in the 70s and 80s ever happened like roads been blocked by heavy snow or pipes been frozen. So as far as this Winter is concerned I believe we might get the odd cold snap but even at that we will be lucky to seee a hard frost never mind a few snow flakes especially where I live where used to get our fair share.

I went to school in the 80s and early 90s and I too remember many winters where the primary school had to close due to frozen pipes. Many a time would I wake up and my bedroom window would be covered in a layer of ice with beautiful frosty patterns. Most winters brought a snow spell anything from one to three days (this was normal so can't really remember which years) and up to 1-3 weeks during 1982, 1987 and 1991. I also remember school closures in 1986 I think it was during April with one night of intense snow leaving almost a foot of snow here.

If you take 2000, 2009 and 2010 out of the equation think back between 1992 and this winter and for most winter's I can count on one hand the amount of days per winter we experienced an average frost. Also, any snow that does fall is now mostly just a glimse from a rogue shower at night from the north-west, with any lying snow melted within 1 or 3 hours. As for school days lost due to frozen pipes or snow since 2010 in our location, that number is currently at 0 and kids currently in 4th class primary school have never experienced a day off from school due to bad weather/snow/ice/frost.

cute geoge

Today is like a summers day in north kerry ,with sun out since 10 am .ground is also very dry and i left off a few cattle grazing .
This spring is really shaping up to be a mighty one!!!

Macy0161

sryanbruen wrote: »

As a matter of fact, Valentine's Day last year did record some flurries but nothing exciting.

It was a reasonable, if short lived, up near Roundwood. Enough for a snowman and sledge. And for the children to play in.

I had fun and games getting the car from Brockagh to Lough Dan to collect the kids - I had to go the back road as the main road was blocked by an accident in Annamoe with the, and iirc several incidents in Roundwood village.