Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Meteorite58

Very mild and humid around Tralee today in a SSE Wind

Got up to 13.5C here on the coast ( Kerry Airport 13C rounded ) and currently 11.3C

Gonzo

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

You want unsettled weather?

in the hopefull event that things quieten down during the summer. End of February - beginning of may is the best times for unsettled conditions when we are unlikely to receive a very late decent snowfall or an early heatwave.

sryanbruen

If it's going to be wet, I want it to be extreme, not this boring drab weather we have had this week. I have recorded 7.6mm of rainfall in the past week (10th-16th) and at least 0.1mm was recorded every day. Very boring and miserable.

Meteorological Summer starts on a Thursday this year and previous years with the same calendar for the Summer were 2006, 2000, 1995 and 1989 which were all very good summers but 2000 was the worst of them. Here's hoping this coincidence continues with this year bringing us an excellent Summer.

According to the BBC, if England & Wales end up average rainfall for February which is likely as they will escape much of the rain 'til the end of the month, this Winter will be in their top 10 driest on record.

If Northern Ireland ends up average rainfall or slightly above average rainfall for February, this Winter will be in its top 5 driest on record.

nacho libre

I am turning my back on snow now:(

This winter has been a total disaster- just endless blandness. I fully expect we will see a Greenland high around the Middle of March to rub it in.

ps I know describing it as a disaster is very subjective:P

To the likes of pedigree6, Clonmel1000 and others it has been a great winter.

JCX BXC

Have to agree, no storms, no rainfall events, no snowfall events, even a nice frost was hard to come by (the frost's at the end of November were by far the most notable event this season, if you can count it).

Gonzo

agreed the cold in November was the only real cold and that technically was still autumn. I was glad the winter was mostly dry but for cold and snow it was another disaster. We haven't had decent snow since 2010 but this winter has to be the one of the most snowless winter we've seen.

Oneiric 3

Running 28 day mean rainfall totals since October 1st up to yesterday (Feb 17th)
as compared to the most recent short-term average (2007-2015) for the IMT region (which consists of data from 11 Met Éireann synoptic stations dotted around the island).



Rainfall totals have been running well below normal now since the middle of last October, and as Syran mentioned above, with no major rainfall events looking to be on the cards for the rest of this month, it looking like this winter will finish much drier than average both in the North and in the 'South'.

Data used from Met Éireann.

sryanbruen

Up to this point, I have recorded 79.0mm of rainfall which would make it my equal-second driest Winter on record with 2005/06 (though it will obviously be wetter than that Winter by the end of February) and only 2014/15 was drier when I recorded only 73.2mm.

JCX BXC

I've recorded 36.0mm this month so far and 101.2mm this whole year. No rain was recorded here yesterday at all, and only 0.4mm recorded since midnight.

The normal winter puddles in the fields (I wouldn't call them Turloughs, they're too small for that) aren't actually there at all at the moment and haven't been for most of the winter.

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

Up to this point, I have recorded 79.0mm of rainfall which would make it my equal-second driest Winter on record with 2005/06 (though it will obviously be wetter than that Winter by the end of February) and only 2014/15 was drier when I recorded only 73.2mm.

Just looking at the MSLP anomalies for this year so far, and compared to the most recent years for the same period, they are currently running at the highest since 2012...

Will we, like in the 2012, pay for this during the warmer part of the year...?? :P

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just looking at the MSLP anomalies for this year so far, and compared to the most recent years for the same period, they are currently running at the highest since 2012...

Will we, like in the 2012, pay for this during the warmer part of the year...?? :P

Please to god hope not. March is looking like a very unsettled month anyway compared to March 2012 which was very warm and blocked. I never want a year like 2012 again, worst year of my life though a March like 2012 is appreciable any time.

Clonmel1000

Duran can you remind me of summer 2012 please? I remember the Munster final being a wet day and def the AI semi final in August was a wet day. Thanks

sryanbruen

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Duran can you remind me of summer 2012 please? I remember the Munster final being a wet day and def the AI semi final in August was a wet day. Thanks

Who's Duran :P?

June - Wettest on record. One of the dullest on record, dullest on record in Cork. Quite cool but there were some warm days that were memorable (at least here, most of you had to suffer rain :P).

July - Very cool, even "cold" perhaps, wet and dull. Much like June except to a lesser degree of extreme besides the cool temperatures.

August - Rather warm and wet with variable sunshine. This month had the only pleasant spell of weather in most places and that was the 7th-11th of August when temperatures hit 26c on the 10th. Other than that, a pretty wet month again, continuing the depressing Summer of 2012. At least, it was warm and sunny in places unlike the previous two months.

It was the second wettest Summer on record in the UK after 1912.

Meteorite58

Signs of Spring. Got up to 14.2C a short time ago here near Tralee.

Today is the first frog spawn and frog in our pond that I've seen this year Lots of leaves on shrubs and bushes coming out in the last couple of days.

Gonzo

feeling like spring here today as well, even saw one person wearing a t-shirt.

sryanbruen

Through all my research, I could not find exact stats for Ireland but here is what I have gathered.

First, I will list all the colder than normal Winters in Ireland since 1980. In case you're confused of how I define a cold Winter. It's a Winter in Ireland where the mean temperature anomaly of all stations is at least -0.1c below normal (even though some stations might be above average - that does not matter and still qualifies as long as Ireland's mean temperature anomaly as a whole is below average).

2014/15, 2012/13, 2010/11, 2009/10, 2008/09, 1990/91, 1985/86, 1984/85 and 1981/82 - cold Winters since 1980 in Ireland.

This comes to a total of 9 colder than normal Winters which is very depressing and the big gap from Winter 1990/91 to Winter 2008/09 (17 years) is even more depressing. This means that on average, we get a colder than normal Winter every 3.333333... years. We have had a good few cold Winters since 2008 when we hit solar minimum would you believe it even though it doesn't feel like it. The 1990s (with only one cold Winter) and much of the 2000s were very poor for cold Winters, however and something has clearly happened here. Also, Winters have gotten less extreme cold over time. Winter 2009/10 (as a whole, not individual months like Winter 2010/11) was our last severe cold Winter and before that, you have to go back to Winter 1978/79 I think for a severe cold Winter like that.

Due to how similar of a state Winter 2016/17 has been with Winter 2005/06, I suspect Winter 2017/18 won't be a cold Winter, please Mother Nature prove me wrong.

These are all the Winter months since 1980 that are significantly colder than normal (at least -1.5c below the average)

• December 1981
• January 1982
• January 1985
• February 1986
• January 1987
• December 2009
• January 2010
• February 2010
• December 2010

The 1990s had no such months, the mild second half ruined February 1991 from being one.

Clonmel1000

sryanbruen wrote: »

Who's Duran :P?

June - Wettest on record. One of the dullest on record, dullest on record in Cork. Quite cool but there were some warm days that were memorable (at least here, most of you had to suffer rain :P).

July - Very cool, even "cold" perhaps, wet and dull. Much like June except to a lesser degree of extreme besides the cool temperatures.

August - Rather warm and wet with variable sunshine. This month had the only pleasant spell of weather in most places and that was the 7th-11th of August when temperatures hit 26c on the 10th. Other than that, a pretty wet month again, continuing the depressing Summer of 2012. At least, it was warm and sunny in places unlike the previous two months.

It was the second wettest Summer on record in the UK after 1912.

Thanks syran would it be worse than summer 2007?

JCX BXC

2013 was a stunner though!

rbelmc

had a look at the Swedish weather service site today(ww.smhi.se) and they say winter isn't over despite the mild weather there now with heavy snow forecast from midweek even in the south of Sweden

Meteorite58

Max Temp. today rounded,

sryanbruen

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Thanks syran would it be worse than summer 2007?

That's a subjective question but from the side of facts, it depends on where you're talking about.

Summer 2012 was much worse in the west for example but 2007 was worse in the east. 2012 was wetter in the west, 2007 was wetter in the east. 2007 is still Casement Aerodrome's wettest Summer on record.

pauldry

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Max Temp. today rounded,

Tomorrow munster n leinster could see 16c

JCX BXC

That's not going to feel very nice with humidity near 100%, especially since were not used to warm conditions considering were just coming out of winter.

pauldry

12c felt nice in sun today.

If no snow lets have heat!!!

Oneiric 3

JCX BXC wrote: »

That's not going to feel very nice with humidity near 100%, especially since were not used to warm conditions considering were just coming out of winter.

The weather the last few days (in fact, most of this God forsaken winter!) reminds me of the entirety of last summer, where is was dull and uncomfortably humid for weeks on end. Damp also yet very little rain. It seems we are gotten into an awful rut over the last 12 months with no end in sight at all in the offing.

I think if we have to suffer through another summer like last year and the year before this time around, that I would seriously consider purchasing some nuclear arms and letting all hell break loose.

Calibos

pauldry wrote: »

Tomorrow munster n leinster could see 16c

Locally the high in Bray today was 16.2ºc according to Trogdors station. Fohn in action. Does that mean we could be looking at 18ºc here tomorrow? The prom is packed any given Sunday unless its raining. Should be a very busy day down there tomorrow if we get those temps and if the hazy sunshine MT forecast for the South reaches up this far!

JCX BXC

Calibos wrote: »

Locally the high in Bray today was 16.2ºc according to Trogdors station. Fohn in action. Does that mean we could be looking at 18ºc here tomorrow? The prom is packed any given Sunday unless its raining. Should be a very busy day down there tomorrow if we get those temps and if the hazy sunshine MT forecast for the South reaches up this far!

That's the February wishful thinking getting into play!

pauldry

Could reach 17c but 18c could be pushing it.

Though Iceland got 19c on the Phone effect the other day

bRING it on

Graces7

Lovely day yesterday, with just that nip in the breeze to remind it is still February.. Can hear rain on the roof and a muted wind song.

JCX BXC

Don't think we'll be getting those 17-18c's

2.4mm recorded here in West Clare since midnight, was clear earlier, foggy (fairly dense too) with drizzle now.