Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Meteorite58

Far less threat of a storm now for Thurs with that last couple of runs downgrading the winds and keeping the center to the E of the UK, pressure not as low either as first predicted.

sryanbruen

I am not confident whatsoever with my predictions for Spring 2017 that I set in December. This has got to be the most difficult season ever to forecast for me. A unique QBO from 2016 with a very unusual Winter did not help me at all, in fact made things far worse and more challenging to predict the Spring's weather. If we go back to 1900, there is only ONE perfect match for this Winter's outcome of "mild and dry" (Winter 1931/32) whilst there are TWO close matches (Winter 1991/92 & Winter 2005/06). Winter 1931/32 had a poor Spring following it with a trough over us and with plenty of very stubborn Northern blocking, it turned out as a cold Spring. The huge problem here is that there is only one perfect match for us to go off to help us predict the weather of Spring 2017.

If we have a look at the two close matches, those Springs weren't good either. Both Springs were warmer than normal (though 2006 was only slightly above) but very wet. Spring 1992 was exceptionally dull, dullest Spring on record at Malin Head and Spring 2006 was a little sunnier than normal.

Winter 2005/06 had a very similar situation with this Winter in my opinion (I promise this is the last time I'll say this :pac:) even though the reanalysis shows that Winter 1931/32 was closer of a match to this Winter. This is because Winter 2005/06 wasn't particularly mild overall, though it was mild of course. Winter 2016/17 has had a very mild December, rather mild January (though cold in England) and looking like February will turn out very mild. But apart from the extremes of temperatures, this Winter was literally a copy and paste of that Winter: High pressure over us, going into solar minimum, very cold Winter in eastern Europe, very dry January in the east, February the more unsettled month of the season and not remarkably sunny but still sunnier than normal.

Out of all the top 20 mildest and driest winters on record, 1931/32 was the only one that was both very mild and dry.

Winter 1931/32 reanalysis



Winter 1991/92 reanalysis



Winter 2005/06 reanalysis

My Spring 2017 predictions:

March - Rather warm, wet and sunny.
April - Warm, dry and sunny.
May - Very cool, dull and wet.

Gonzo

unlikely to get above 14, maybe 15C. The next few months are the months I find most boring, the average temperature range of 12-16C between now and the end of May. Think I'm done with this winter now, nothing more to say about it, with my thoughts now turning to summer, hopefully we will get a few decent spells of 22C+ with sunshine and much dryness.

Clonmel1000

Doesn't feel at all humid or mild today compared to yesterday. Gloomy. Cloudy misty with s bit of a stingy breeze.

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Doesn't feel at all humid or mild today compared to yesterday. Gloomy. Cloudy misty with s bit of a stingy breeze.

Agreed, it's only 11c here. Feels more damp/wet than humid at these temperatures.

sryanbruen

Overcast and muggy here with 13.1c now.

Nabber

Gonzo wrote: »

unlikely to get above 14, maybe 15C. The next few months are the months I find most boring, the average temperature range of 12-16C between now and the end of May. Think I'm done with this winter now, nothing more to say about it, with my thoughts now turning to summer, hopefully we will get a few decent spells of 22C+ with sunshine and much dryness.

You are some bhoy Gonzo. I expect 3 things in weather forum at winter, Darkman thread, a rage quit and Gonzo 'calling' winter....

Each year the forum delivers on all of these...

pauldry

Cork is 14c at 1300 so 15c easily attainable. Maybe 16c in some valley

Gonzo

Nabber wrote: »

You are some bhoy Gonzo. I expect 3 things in weather forum at winter, Darkman thread, a rage quit and Gonzo 'calling' winter....

Each year the forum delivers on all of these...

they say Ireland's weather can be so unpredictable, yet 9 times out of 10 we end up with a similar winter every year, a sea of disappointment, near miss's and what if's and then a repeat throughout the summer with the mild, wet muck replaced with cool, wet, muck and interchangeable temperatures.Our weather is generally very predictable when you think about it! For most of us here who love a cold plunge with snow in proper winter and a hot sunny spell July with beers in the garden and bbq's, the Atlantic gets in the way of our fun each and every time.

Xenji

Overcast and wet in Castlebar, 10.8C.

nagdefy

This has been the blandest winter i remember. I'm sure as Sryan pointed out others have been similar but this one is freshest in the memory:)

I think we'll get a spell of wintry type weather in March and April. Due to the lateness of the season nothing particularly severe. Wet snow showers and days of 4-7C with frost at night. Nuisance weather in other words.

The likes of 1992 had a very cold first week in April with snow after a mild winter. 2008 had snow at Easter, the last week of March, again after a mild winter. And the first 10 days of April 1994 were cold with snow and hail showers after a reasonably mild winter. February had a cold second half that year.

Gonzo

I hope that doesn't happen. There is signs of an easterly in early March and it's too little too late, wouldn't amount of more than an overnight dusting if were lucky. I can only remember about 2 events in my lifetime where snow lasted a minimum of more than 24 hours on the ground before melting after the end of February. I love snow but it really is just a wasted opportunity this late in the year, unless there is absolute exceptional circumstances like what Northern Ireland experienced in March 2013.

nagdefy

Gonzo wrote: »

I hope that doesn't happen. There is signs of an easterly in early March and it's too little too late, wouldn't amount of more than an overnight dusting if were lucky. I can only remember about 2 events in my lifetime where snow lasted a minimum of more than 24 hours on the ground before melting after the end of February. I love snow but it really is just a wasted opportunity this late in the year, unless there is absolute exceptional circumstances like what Northern Ireland experienced in March 2013.

We've had a some snowfalls lasting a few days but it's just the altitude thing. Black Briar mentions snow in Arklow for a week in March in 1978, i was 2 so don't remember. My mam said it was a harsh Spring.

Doctor Shivering

nagdefy wrote: »

We've had a some snowfalls lasting a few days but it's just the altitude thing. Black Briar mentions snow in Arklow for a week in March in 1978, i was 2 so don't remember. My mam said it was a harsh Spring.

Yup ,I was not into the technical side of winter then but the worst affected counties were Wicklow and Wexford so Either a northeasterly or a stuck front
I remember the RTÉ news having a report from Gorey during it
There was also a significant effort around paddys week in march in the late 70's but the one in 78 was special

Meteorite58

Roche's Pt got up to 14.3C today .

Small Temp range here in Kerry: High of 11.7C / Current 11.1C / low 9.4C

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

We've had a some snowfalls lasting a few days but it's just the altitude thing. Black Briar mentions snow in Arklow for a week in March in 1978, i was 2 so don't remember. My mam said it was a harsh Spring.

And indeed it was a harsh Spring:



Low pressure firmly over us and some Northern Blocking.

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

And indeed it was a harsh Spring:



Low pressure firmly over us and some Northern Blocking.

Mam is a retired NT and she taught in a school a mile from home. She said she walked through snow drifts to work in late February and the start of March 1978.

ninebeanrows

Would still keep a close eye on events around 84hrs

Could be a very windy morning on Thursday, particularly in the northeast/east as the developing low races east

Oneiric 3

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

Yup ,I was not into the technical side of winter then but the worst affected counties were Wicklow and Wexford so Either a northeasterly or a stuck front
I remember the RTÉ news having a report from Gorey during it
There was also a significant effort around paddys week in march in the late 70's but the one in 78 was special

Are you sure it was March '78?

According to this report by the then named Meteorological Service of Ireland, March was cold. westerly and very windy month with snow showers at times, but nothing major reported on the snow front itself?

http://edepositireland.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/71004/Agromet%20Bull%207803.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Doctor Shivering

Mea culpa ,it has to have been February 12th 1978
Once you get as auld as I your recollection dims on speceific details give or take a few weeks

I'd have sworn blind it was in March,so there goes my notions that it can snow a lot at sea level in march ( unless my memory of a cancelled paddys day parade in the town in which I was supposed to be playing accordion is also fake news :rolleyes: )

Here's a fantastic YouTube video I found of the 1978 event taken on the Dublin road in Arklow

Oneric,if you could be so kind as to dig out the Synoptics,I wouldn't mind looking at the maps of that event thanks

Graces7

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

Yup ,I was not into the technical side of winter then but the worst affected counties were Wicklow and Wexford so Either a northeasterly or a stuck front
I remember the RTÉ news having a report from Gorey during it
There was also a significant effort around paddys week in march in the late 70's but the one in 78 was special

Already quoted snow on early March 2006... Ash Wednesday and I had to drive from Leitrim to Donegal in snow..

JCX BXC

Winter memories thread

Two years in a row with not even a flake here in West Clare.

Next year can't be this bad can it?

Gonzo

JCX BXC wrote: »

Winter memories thread

Two years in a row with not even a flake here in West Clare.

Next year can't be this bad can it?

that's what I've been thinking every winter since 2011!

Gonzo

Surely Cork, Waterford and even Dublin have a decent chance of making it into a list like this one?

http://mentalfloss.com/article/23980/12-places-rarely-see-snow

They have listed Rome as number 1, I would argue that Rome see's snow more regularly than Cork or Waterford.

JCX BXC

Forgetting Galway and Limerick? In recent years Cork has definitely gotten more snow than Limerick at least.

And, Clickbait articles such as the one you have posted are not renounced for their accuracy, in general they are based on nothing or near nothing, and are more like opinion pieces than articles.

Gonzo

JCX BXC wrote: »

Forgetting Galway and Limerick? In recent years Cork has definitely gotten more snow than Limerick at least.

And, Clickbait articles such as the one you have posted are not renounced for their accuracy, in general they are based on nothing or near nothing, and are more like opinion pieces than articles.

I could be wrong but I reckon Galway and certainly Sligo see's more snow than the others with brief north-west snow events every winter. I would have thought that Limerick be in a similar situation?

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

Surely Cork, Waterford and even Dublin have a decent chance of making it into a list like this one?

http://mentalfloss.com/article/23980/12-places-rarely-see-snow

They have listed Rome as number 1, I would argue that Rome see's snow more regularly than Cork or Waterford.

Funnily enough Gonzo, whilst Cork was flake free from Dec 2004 to January 2010, since then we had decent snowfalls in Jan 2010, Dec 2010 and, crucially, had snowfall you could (briefly) build a (small!) snowman out of a few times in 2013 and 2014, had real proper snow for a day in late Jan / early Feb 2015 and have had a few other days when north westerlies gave us wet snow. I think the 6 year snow drought between 2004 and 2010 coincided with this forum getting popular so lead to the Cork snow shield stuff. In truth though we do ok and can get snow from a westerly or easterly direction. We probably get snow more frequently than the east coast but when the east coast gets snow it tends to get the good stuff.

Oneiric 3

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

Mea culpa ,it has to have been February 12th 1978
Once you get as auld as I your recollection dims on speceific details give or take a few weeks

I'd have sworn blind it was in March,so there goes my notions that it can snow a lot at sea level in march ( unless my memory of a cancelled paddys day parade in the town in which I was supposed to be playing accordion is also fake news :rolleyes: )

Here's a fantastic YouTube video I found of the 1978 event taken on the Dublin road in Arklow

Oneric,if you could be so kind as to dig out the Synoptics,I wouldn't mind looking at the maps of that event thanks

Looks like that snow came courtesy of a 'wrap around' trough which was associated with a shallow depression which moved down over the country from the NW between the 10 and 11th Feb 1978. Judging by the synops, it would have brought a band of snow right down over the country as it came up against some cold air. The front cleared away south late on the 11th to leave behind a slack but cold easterly.

Synoptic analysis chart from the UK Met for early on the 11th:




And from the MSoI summary for Feb '78:

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

This has been the blandest winter i remember. I'm sure as Sryan pointed out others have been similar but this one is freshest in the memory:)

I think we'll get a spell of wintry type weather in March and April. Due to the lateness of the season nothing particularly severe. Wet snow showers and days of 4-7C with frost at night. Nuisance weather in other words.

The likes of 1992 had a very cold first week in April with snow after a mild winter. 2008 had snow at Easter, the last week of March, again after a mild winter. And the first 10 days of April 1994 were cold with snow and hail showers after a reasonably mild winter. February had a cold second half that year.

For some reason, I'm only seeing this now and at last someone spells Sryan correctly :pac: (without the Bruen that is as posters on this tend to spell sryanbruen correctly but not Sryan on its own :P).

On April 1st, 1992, Clones in Co. Monaghan recorded a maximum of only 4c. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't we have to wait 'til April 2013 for temperatures as low as that during the day in April again? April 1992 was an awfully miserable month with some very cool days like the one just mentioned, one of the wettest on record (wettest on record at Valentia Observatory to this day) and is still the dullest on record in most places though April 1966 was generally duller here in the east. Birr recorded only 47% of its average April sunshine in April 1992 which goes to show how poorly dull it was. The years 1992-1994 were known for exceptional dull weather here in Ireland with many of the months being record breakingly dull such as April 1992 (just mentioned), January 1993, February 1993, December 1993, February 1994 and June 1994.

Spring 2008 was extremely forgettable if I'm completely honest despite the lowest March pressure ever recorded in Ireland (950.1hPa at Shannon Airport on the 10th) and Ireland's warmest May on record.

Cold or snowy events in Spring that I can remember:

30/31 March 2010 - This was an amazing experience and is largely forgotten by many. I recorded heavy rain on the 29th which would turn gradually to snow on the 30th and then just out of nowhere, I recorded actual blizzards. Easily, the third best snow event of 2010 here after November 27-December 2 and December 17-23. It was the best snow in March I have experienced so far. The snow melted on April 1st but did stay for the day on the 31st here which was amazing for March. March 2013's snowfall may have not been up to high standard for us snow lovers but hell yeah, this event in 2010 certainly was.

18-20 March 2007 - Largely forgotten I can see as I never see it mentioned by anybody. I don't blame y'all not remembering it anyway because it wasn't particularly memorable or remarkable, not at all. March 19th on the Met Éireann March 2007 monthly weather bulletin states:

Showers of sleet or snow in many areas during the day. Long sunny periods also, but temperatures well below normal. Frost becoming widespread after dark. Winds were north to northwesterly, fresh to strong, up to strong gale in northern areas and very gusty throughout.

http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-2007-Mar.pdf

1-5 March 2006 - I recorded some flurries but nothing much. However, the cold was quite extreme with a minimum of -7.1c on March 3rd I recorded.

Here's Ash Wednesday 2006 for you Graces7 :

ninebeanrows

Looks increasingly like a significant wind storm will affect Ireland Wednesday night/Thursday AM

Disruption likely, Greater Dublin could take a big hit when storm undergoing rapid deepening