Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Oscar Bravo

Possible upgrade to status orange wind warning tomorrow for the south West

sryanbruen

Buffalobill29 wrote: »

I'm getting tired of the weather forecast saying "Ireland going to get snow tomorrow " when the only friggin places getting snow are the bloody mountains. Is it jot possible to get a dusting of snow on low ground anymore? Also, when it's mild it rains the whole time but as soon as the cold comes all we get is damn dry weather why no snow? I mean at -1 we should get snow especially considering the whole day was raining and suddenly it becomes dry...anyone agree with me on this? All I ask for is a dusting even a half inch of snow... Also I don't know why people like summer here because summer here is also dismal.

The air when we normally get cold weather is too dry for snow, there is little if any precipitation or water vapour in the air trapped with the cold air mass. So how could snow take place with little or no precipitation in the air?

"Is it jot possible to get a dusting of snow on low ground anymore?". My god, people can be so selfish. You are all forgetting that we had a very snowless period from 1992-2007 in which there wasn't any widespread snowfalls but there were some memorable ones, still not up to par as "widespread". We have had more snow from 2008 to now than we did from 1992-2007 (well I think I'm being a bit biased here :P, I apologise). During my whole childhood (I'm still a teenager), I didn't see a decent snow "period" (more than 1 day) 'til October 2008. I escaped December 2000, March 2001, November 2005 and March 2006's snowfalls whilst I did record a good dusting on February 27, 2001 and December 25, 2004.

I could write a book showing you all the science behind why it's so difficult to get snow in Ireland :pac:.

P.S. I like summers in Ireland because I hate very hot weather and having Ireland's all-time maximum temperature at only 33c is relief to me because I cannot stand other climates or else I'd be burnt to a crisp. If Ireland had frequent summers (every year) like 2013, 2014, 2006, 1995, 1989 etc, it would be pretty boring :cool: and I would get bored of not having something to complain about :rolleyes:.

Had some nice snow this morning, Blessington 200m asl. Didn't hang around long, but nice to see.

Buffalobill29

sryanbruen wrote: »

The air when we normally get cold weather is too dry for snow, there is little if any precipitation or water vapour in the air trapped with the cold air mass. So how could snow take place with little or no precipitation in the air?

"Is it jot possible to get a dusting of snow on low ground anymore?". My god, people can be so selfish. You are all forgetting that we had a very snowless period from 1992-2007 in which there wasn't any widespread snowfalls but there were some memorable ones, still not up to par as "widespread". We have had more snow from 2008 to now than we did from 1992-2007 (well I think I'm being a bit biased here :P, I apologise). During my whole childhood (I'm still a teenager), I didn't see a decent snow "period" (more than 1 day) 'til October 2008. I escaped December 2000, March 2001, November 2005 and March 2006's snowfalls whilst I did record a good dusting on February 27, 2001 and December 25, 2004.

I could write a book showing you all the science behind why it's so difficult to get snow in Ireland :pac:.

P.S. I like summers in Ireland because I hate very hot weather and having Ireland's all-time maximum temperature at only 33c is relief to me because I cannot stand other climates or else I'd be burnt to a crisp. If Ireland had frequent summers (every year) like 2013, 2014, 2006, 1995, 1989 etc, it would be pretty boring :cool: and I would get bored of not having something to complain about :rolleyes:.

"My god people can be so selfish " sorry to tell you but I haven't witnessesed lying snow for six years... Sorry if I get a bit mad about that every now and then, also you can only speak for your own area because on those "snowy " winters from 2008 onwards only some areas actually got a lot of snow but some areas got none so actually for me in my area it's been pretty much snowless from 2008 to now with the exception of 2010 and from 1992 as well that you have pointed that out.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

. If Ireland had frequent summers (every year) like 2013, 2014, 2006, 1995, 1989 etc, it would be pretty boring :cool: and I would get bored of not having something to complain about :rolleyes:.

Same way if we were guaranteed a foot of snow each winter, most of us would probably not be as enchanted by it as we are. I remember thinking during December 2010, i hope these days go slowly because who knows when I will see that much snow on the ground again

Gaoth Laidir

Arpege showing pretty strong winds overnight tomorrow night/early Thursday morning.

highdef

Arpege, Euro 4 and Arome models are now all showing heavy snow for many Midlands and eastern areas tomorrow, away from coasts..... Interesting

pad199207

Absolutely bucketing down here in Naas

Gaoth Laidir

highdef wrote: »

Arpege, Euro 4 and Arome models are now all showing heavy snow for many Midlands and eastern areas tomorrow, away from coasts..... Interesting

Their soundings would show a different story, however. Those hashed precip areas of snow are not always totally accurate and in this case it would seem that they're showing snow falling a couple of hundred metres up. Freezing levels around 600-700 metres and warm and humid low levels. Sleet and cold rain would be indicated at the surface.

This sounding is for Naas at 2100 tomorrow, right in the middle of the heaviest hashed snow area.

lucernarian

Many spots would see snow falling in those conditions, I doubt it would stick anywhere low-lying barring some central counties. Even there it's 50/50 to me.

Gaoth Laidir

As to prove my point above, the same model shows no total snowfall at low levels right through to Thursday afternoon. Only on high ground.

highdef

Yeah, had seen that the models were showing no lying snow away from high ground but was hoping very heavy snow, even if not sticking..... Pretty to look at. Having said that, after a few minutes, I'd probably get very annoyed that it's not sticking :P

Snowbiee21

Does it still look as if there will be heavy burst at lower levels?

Gaoth Laidir

highdef wrote: »

Yeah, had seen that the models were showing no lying snow away from high ground but was hoping very heavy snow, even if not sticking..... Pretty to look at. Having said that, after a few minutes, I'd probably get very annoyed that it's not sticking :P

Falling heavy snow is unlikely below about 200 metres, where a sloppy sleet/rain mess is most likely.

Meteorite58

Just comparing the HIRLAM and the ARPEGE mean wind speeds and the HIRLAM comes in higher then the ARPEGE IMO and showing the winds to arrive much earlier in the night also ( GFS would compare to the HIRLAM showing possibly Clare and Kerry could get the strongest winds). Definitely Yellow, will need to see a couple of more runs to know for exact.

The ARPEGE would suggest possible Orange warning for some W counties and some Eastern counties later. Also shows some very windy weather earlier in the evening in Kerry and returning later in the night/ early morning.

The Hirlam showing perhaps Clare and Kerry getting the strongest winds at first and later the SE coast.

Cant post charts atm, will try later.

Clonmel1000

Forecast is atteocious for the start of spring. This country's weather for all of us I think we'll all agree really is arseways. None of us get the weather we crave anyway is there a spring weather thread starting? Thanks for making the winter thread so interesting to everyone.

JCX BXC

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=102771703#post102771703

Spring thread!

RobertKK

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Forecast is atteocious for the start of spring. This country's weather for all of us I think we'll all agree really is arseways. None of us get the weather we crave anyway is there a spring weather thread starting? Thanks for making the winter thread so interesting to everyone.

I had to laugh, it is the way you put it, but it is so true.

I see on Gaoth Laidir it has snow for my area which is above 200metres asl.

Oneiric 3

WV image over the last few hours nicely shows how that elongated Occlusion is forming. Polar (drier) air masses, over both the eastern and western Atlantic, 'choking' a tongue of sub tropical air to death.



Raw Hirlam 18z data has strongest winds over the mid/SW later tomorrow.

mickger844posts

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just comparing the HIRLAM and the ARPEGE mean wind speeds and the HIRLAM comes in higher then the ARPEGE IMO and showing the winds to arrive much earlier in the night also ( GFS would compare to the HIRLAM showing possibly Clare and Kerry could get the strongest winds). Definitely Yellow, will need to see a couple of more runs to know for exact.

The ARPEGE would suggest possible Orange warning for some W counties and some Eastern counties later. Also shows some very windy weather earlier in the evening in Kerry and returning later in the night/ early morning.

The Hirlam showing perhaps Clare and Kerry getting the strongest winds at first and later the SE coast.

Cant post charts atm, will try later.

I have totally lost confidence in the ARPEGE of late especially for my region. Both for Doris and Ewan they were forecasting gusts above 100km/h but in reality they came nowhere near that.
With regards snow chances at sea level over the next few days i just can't see it. Temps are just not right.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Oneiric 3

Provisional Met Éireann data for the IMT region, which is based on the mean of 11 synoptic stations, suggests that nationally (data from individual stations will no doubt differ) Winter 2016-2017 will finish the mildest since 2012 (Mean 6.8c - on par with 2012) and the driest since - but not as dry as - 2010.

Personally, I hope we never see a winter like this again.

lucernarian

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Provisional Met Éireann data for the IMT region, which is based on the mean of 11 synoptic stations, suggests that nationally (data from individual stations will no doubt differ) Winter 2016-2017 will finish the mildest since 2012 (Mean 6.8c - on par with 2012) and the driest since - but not as dry as - 2010.

Personally, I hope we never see a winter like this again.

I was happy about the rather dry winter, even if there was a lack of snow. Beats the hell out of exciting but bothersome or even dangerous scenarios like for Doris.

Oscar Bravo

Nothing to severe regarding wind on the 11pm TAF's. Shannon forecasting gusts up to 43knots between 8pm and 11pm tomorrow. Shannon forecasting sleet between 3pm and 6pm, Knock forecasting sleet a few hours later between 5pm and 9pm. a light westerly breeze and light rain for Dublin

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Winter is (officially) over....Spring is here!

All general weather posts in relation to current and immanent weather should go here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057711915

Will leave this thread open for now for general musings and statistics.

DOCARCH

Final stats for Winter 2016/17, for Dublin 16.

A dry and mild winter, with no lying snow.

Max Temp: 16.1c on December 07th
Min Temp: -3.1c on January 21st

Mean Temp:
December 7.5c
January 6.2c
February 6.7c
Mean 6.8c

Rain:
December 45.4mm
January 17.6mm
February 59.0mm
Total 122.0mm

Rain Days: 49
Air Frosts: 11 days.
Snow Falling: 5 days.
Snow Lying (at 0900): 0 days
Thunder Heard: 0 days

sryanbruen

Grange's Winter 2016/17 summary

Rather dull but mild and quite dry.

Rainfall: Quite dry but very forgettable in comparison with other dry winters.
I recorded a rainfall total of 119.7mm (72% of the LTA) during Winter 2016/17 which made it the 8th driest on record behind 2014/15 (72.8mm), 2011/12 (117.1mm), 2008/09 (83.5mm), 2005/06 (79.6mm), 1996/97 (116.2mm), 1991/92 (81.6mm) and 1988/89 (109.5mm). December was a largely dry month but the middle of the month brought up its rainfall somewhat with a daily fall of 10.4mm on the 14th. As a result, December's rainfall total came out as 32.8mm (52% of the LTA) and it was my driest December since 2010. December 2016 was 177.5mm drier than December 2015's rainfall total, what a difference. January's rainfall total came out as only 10.1mm (18% of the LTA) which made it my second driest January on record behind only 1997. My highest daily rainfall for January was only 3.0mm on the 6th which was my second lowest maximum daily rainfall for January again behind only 1997. Up to this point of the Winter, I had recorded only 42.9mm (36% of the LTA for December and January combined). This was a huge change to 2015/16 which had 322.4mm (269% of the LTA for December and January combined). Unfortunately, February was not enough to continue this very dry Winter and be nearly record breakingly dry. February came out as a wet month with 76.8mm (167% of the LTA), wettest February since 2014. I recorded my highest daily rainfall for Winter 2016/17 on February 23rd during Storm Doris with a deluge of 22.9mm during the early morning hours. I recorded another quite wet day on February 3rd with 12.9mm. Both days were wetter than any day from November-January. I recorded a total of 43 dry days (days with 0mm) this Winter which was the most dry days in any Winter since Winter 2008/09. This meant that 48% of all the days during Winter were completely dry. December recorded 17 dry days, January recorded 20 dry days and February recorded 6 dry days.

Temperature: Very mild especially in December and February.
I recorded a mean temperature of 6.0c (+1.4c above the LTA) during Winter 2016/17. This meant that it was milder than Winter 2015/16 but only barely by +0.1c and 2016/17 was the 4th mildest Winter on record behind 1988/89, 1997/98 and 2011/12. Each of the months came out milder than normal with December recording 6.3c (+1.8c above the LTA), January recording 5.4c (+0.8c above the LTA) and February recording 6.3c (+1.7c above the LTA). December came out as one of the mildest on record but it was still -2.2c cooler than the record breaking warm December of 2015 which had an outstanding mean of 8.5c. December 2016 was milder than November 2016, in fact, over +1.2c milder than November. This was the first such occurrence in my records as it never happened before. I recorded my maximum temperature for Winter of 15.5c on December 7th which was my warmest day in Winter since Winter 1997/98. January's mean temperature was not remarkable but it was interesting how it was +0.2c milder than January 2016 was. That's probably because January 2016 had a cold spell mid-month which January 2017 did not have. Instead, January 2017 had the odd cold day here and there. My maximum temperature for January was only 11.8c on the 24th which was my lowest January maximum temperature since 2010. Coincidentally, it was the same date I recorded my maximum temperature for January 2016. February was the mildest since 2012 after two consecutive cool Februarys in 2015 and 2016. I recorded my maximum temperature for February of 14.2c on the 20th which was my highest for February since 2012 and was higher than the previous two Februarys' maximum temperatures. I recorded my minimum temperature for Winter 2016/17 with -4.8c on February 8th which was very unremarkable. Before this, my previous minimum temperature for Winter was -4.3c on December 1st. Even Winter 2015/16 recorded a lower minimum temperature of -6.2c on January 16th. There was one period of consecutive cold days during the whole season but it was very temporary and not even that cold. This period was February 9th-12th where my mean temperature was 3.0c. You might be saying, that isn't that cold. Exactly, that's because the minimum temperature weren't that low at all and for the mean temperature to be very low, you need crazy cold nights, not cold days which this period was evident of. For example, February 10th recorded a maximum of 3.4c but the minimum temperature for the period was -0.2c on the morning of the 11th. This goes to show that Winter 2016/17 was very boring for temperatures.

Sunshine: Surprisingly dull because of a very dull February.
I recorded a sunshine total of 184 hours (97% of the LTA). This was surprising as I thought the Winter would turn out sunnier than normal. Due to a very dull February, unfortunately it did not and even Winter 2015/16 was sunnier. Winter 2015/16 recorded a sunshine total of 208 hours (109% of the LTA). December and January were rather sunny but not remarkably so with 66 hours (116% of the LTA) and 64 hours (112% of the LTA) respectively. It was still the dullest January since 2013 despite being sunnier than normal. February recorded only 54 hours (71% of the LTA) which made it my third dullest February on record behind only 1993 and 1994. February was so dull that it outshined the sunny months of December and January and made Winter dull overall. I recorded my maximum daily Winter sunshine of 7.1 hours on December 1st and February 8th, my sunniest Winter days since 2010/11. Nevertheless, the Winter sunshine total wasn't far from average and is forgettable.

Looking at these statistics, I agree with everyone who says it was a boring Winter. It certainly was.