Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

crosstownk

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Andy gets assigned a villager role?

I think if Andy had a villager role (priest as he claims), he would go to greater lengths to protect it.

If we're as convinced as we can be that he's a wolf then it would be nuts not to lynch him tonight. I don't see any sense in leaving him to plot with his team for another day.

quickbeam

andy125 wrote: »

No its not, experience is useless if is gone in a day or 2, the aim of the game from the wolves is to have as many left at the end, shooting themselves in the foot by picking me is crazy

Tigger could pick 2 wolves if not more before he is killed i cant do that

Most of the players here disagree with you, as they'd have picked you for their team.

Maximus Alexander

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Ok I'm having a crisis now and starting to falter... Any avid gamblers out there who can do the odds on this?

What are the chances for:

1 wolf team picks Andy but doesn't get him, then Andy gets assigned a villager role?

2 wolf teams pick Andy and neither get him, then he gets assigned a villager role?

I'm convinced that at least one wolf team will have gone for him, but the above opens a possibility that I'm not comfortable with.

It doesnt matter as Andy isnt the priest...

But about 2% and 1% i think for the priest role

y0ssar1an22

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Ok I'm having a crisis now and starting to falter... Any avid gamblers out there who can do the odds on this?

What are the chances for:

1 wolf team picks Andy but doesn't get him, then Andy gets assigned a villager role?

2 wolf teams pick Andy and neither get him, then he gets assigned a villager role?

I'm convinced that at least one wolf team will have gone for him, but the above opens a possibility that I'm not comfortable with.

1. very long odds based n the fact that you start with a 1/23 shot of him being picked by an alpha.
1/23 * 2/4 * 7/17 = .89%/.0089 i think? this is probably wrong

andy125

quickbeam wrote: »

Most of the players here disagree with you, as they'd have picked you for their team.

well what do you expect when people have been herding others into that direction

ShatterProof

ShatterProof wrote: »

Good guess but I didn't believe you ,



Why was there only one munch this morning , was that part of the plan or was munch #2 protected ?

There was a competition between both alpha wolves to see who would kill first.

I presume wolves have one kill between them per night? Alternating each night? Can mod confirm/deny?

Maximus Alexander

Deleted User wrote: »

It doesnt matter as Andy isnt the priest...

But about 2% and 1% i think for the priest role

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

1. very long odds based n the fact that you start with a 1/23 shot of him being picked by an alpha.
1/23 * 2/4 * 7/17 = .89%/.0089 i think? this is probably wrong

So does that not still mean then that if we start with the assumption that at least one of the wolves picked him, he's most likely lying?

ShatterProof

I'd say let andy alone tonight ,

if he is the priest then he'll have more info after the lynch and the wolves will kill him in the morning.

if the wolves don't kill him then we can have a rethink. If he is munched we'll have not wasted a lynch on him.

Mollyb60

Deleted User wrote: »

Why didnt you ask him how he knows Andy is a wolf

Because I thought most people (myself included) had pretty much concluded that Andy was highly likely to be a wolf.

Maximus Alexander

Mollyb60 wrote: »

Because I thought most people (myself included) had pretty much concluded that Andy was highly likely to be a wolf.

And I thought the same about Tigger

Maximus Alexander

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

So does that not still mean then that if we start with the assumption that at least one of the wolves picked him, he's most likely lying?

yes like 95+% of the time if picked

Guffy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If I was on a bad team that wasnt Andys I'd be happy to leave him alive,also his naming of the Alpha was an after thought probably prompted to him in his wolf chat

What if you were hans?

andy125

crosstownk wrote: »

I think if Andy had a villager role (priest as he claims), he would go to greater lengths to protect it.

If we're as convinced as we can be that he's a wolf then it would be nuts not to lynch him tonight. I don't see any sense in leaving him to plot with his team for another day.

Cross the amount of heat on me for a bad role and i have a good role, how the feck was ment to protect it, no matter what i said it would be turned into guilt so i went for the quite option hoping to survive the lynch but as soon as suggestion of me being shot i had no choice but to come forward

KERSPLAT!

ShatterProof wrote: »

I'd say let andy alone tonight ,

if he is the priest then he'll have more info after the lynch and the wolves will kill him in the morning.

if the wolves don't kill him then we can have a rethink. If he is munched we'll have not wasted a lynch on him.

This is my thinking. Molly is my No.1 pick

Mollyb60

I had no thoughts on Tigger actually. He was gone too quick to form an opinion on him for this game. He seemed maybe a tad more subdued if that can be said about Tigger?? But he pointed at Andy and I'm inclined to believe him.

Mollyb60

Mollyb60 wrote: »

I had no thoughts on Tigger actually. He was gone too quick to form an opinion on him for this game. He seemed maybe a tad more subdued if that can be said about Tigger?? But he pointed at Andy and I'm inclined to believe him.

You just accused him and max of being teammates?

quickbeam

andy125 wrote: »

Cross the amount of heat on me for a bad role and i have a good role, how the feck was ment to protect it, no matter what i said it would be turned into guilt so i went for the quite option hoping to survive the lynch but as soon as suggestion of me being shot i had no choice but to come forward

Nopeare twice mentioned shooting you and nobody jumped on his bandwaggon. What would make you think you were at risk of shooting?

I wish we had paid attention to Nopeare now though - sorry Nopeare!

KERSPLAT!

Mollyb60 wrote: »

I had no thoughts on Tigger actually. He was gone too quick to form an opinion on him for this game. He seemed maybe a tad more subdued if that can be said about Tigger?? But he pointed at Andy and I'm inclined to believe him.

Trying to get the heat off yourself... hmmmmmm

crosstownk

andy125 wrote: »

Cross the amount of heat on me for a bad role and i have a good role, how the feck was ment to protect it, no matter what i said it would be turned into guilt so i went for the quite option hoping to survive the lynch but as soon as suggestion of me being shot i had no choice but to come forward

But coming forward makes you a target for the wolves. If an apprentice has been trained then that's all that can be done. As you say, anything would be turned into guilt. So whether you came out or not you had equal chance of being killed by either lynch or munch.

Had you said nothing, you may have survived. So if you are a villager, you have now guaranteed a reduction in our numbers.

This is why I'm not inclined to believe your claim and also why I think you could well be wolf.

After this little turn up I wouldnt be opposed to a bullet for Andy or Molly and lynching the other start the day afresh tomoro

andy125

quickbeam wrote: »

Nopeare twice mentioned shooting you and nobody jumped on his bandwaggon. What would make you think you were at risk of shooting?

I wish we had paid attention to Nopeare now though - sorry Nopeare!

QB you have a bad memory if you dont remember the valyard shooting incident or the fact how quickly people jump on the bandwagon as you are trying to form

andy125

andy125 wrote: »

QB you have a bad memory if you dont remember the valyard shooting incident or the fact how quickly people jump on the bandwagon as you are trying to form

Well since you brought it up you said Vale was silly to be coming out claiming a villager role so early like youve just done paraphrased a little

I have a precious half hour free.

I don't think Molly is a wolf but I'm not entirely sure why. Intuition perhaps and also her posts are engaging. Andy on the other hand has a coldness to what he puts out. Also if I were an Alpha I would want him on my side. Strategic, even perhaps a little psychopathic.

andy125

crosstownk wrote: »

But coming forward makes you a target for the wolves. If an apprentice has been trained then that's all that can be done. As you say, anything would be turned into guilt. So whether you came out or not you had equal chance of being killed by either lynch or munch.

Had you said nothing, you may have survived. So if you are a villager, you have now guaranteed a reduction in our numbers.

This is why I'm not inclined to believe your claim and also why I think you could well be wolf.

I may have survived but i was going to risk, it was dead anyway and going into lynch i think a bandwagon had been formed for me , i needed to get it out that tigger was alpha as i think it is important information that we should be discussing

In other news my mocha from the village shop is disappointingly un-chocolatey.

andy125

Deleted User wrote: »

Well since you brought it up you said Vale was silly to be coming out claiming a villager role so early like youve just done paraphrased a little

Situation are different and you know that

Maximus Alexander

Hah, I wish Andy was the real priest and so we knew that Tigger really was alpha because then Mick would be a guaranteed wolf. Tigger f*cking loves Mick.

ShatterProof

andy if you the priest and for the chop you may as well tell us how you would play this game. who do you think are the wolves and why.

have you seen anything that could help the village.

andy125

andy125 wrote: »

Situation are different and you know that

Ah not really but then again I know you aint the priest, if Trigger was your alpha you should have role claimed one of the seers but priest is more valuable to try flush out i guess

y0ssar1an22

ShatterProof wrote: »

I'd say let andy alone tonight ,

if he is the priest then he'll have more info after the lynch and the wolves will kill him in the morning.

if the wolves don't kill him then we can have a rethink. If he is munched we'll have not wasted a lynch on him.

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

This is my thinking. Molly is my No.1 pick

i agree with shatter and kersplat re not lynching andy tonight