Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

GUFC point to any better candidate for lynching instead of defending Andy

quickbeam

Deleted User wrote: »

I didnt say anyone who disagree was a wolf.

Neither did I, for what it's worth. I only said they were suspicious.

y0ssar1an22

i just dont think people would have selected andy to be a wolf - i know lots of people here would have, but would you really have? knowing he would be under so much suspicion?
based on that i'm finding it difficult to justify voting for him, and as i've already said he's a goner anyway so why waste a lynch?

why not give andy a pass tonight to see who is munched tomorrow night? i think we learn more.

thats where i am on the andy thing right now

Guffy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I didnt say anyone who disagree was a wolf. My reason for Andy were 3 pronged, Trigger call, the players concensus, and his reindeer distraction then his priest claimed confirmed it.

Ive no idea why you are so hard against it I mean you have to vote for someone tonight why are you sticking up for Andy, when he turns out to be a wolf its going to look bad for you

Ya im aware of that. I have voted for someone who i believe to be a wolf. I'm not hard against Andy as a wolf, i just don't think we have to kill him. There's no rush to kill him at all. There are no special powers for wolves in this game so leave him there. The only people i think that have to kill him is the other wolf team and Hans. Let them do it. Its another voice in the back room weeding them out. Yes our seer is at risk but i don't think they will be giving much away at this point anyway.

And from your earlier posts, of course you take an enemy out when you have the chance. Especially now. What is it 20/1 you hit a particular rolled good guy or guaranteed you hit an enemy wolf or a priest. Madness not to take him out

Guffy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

GUFC point to any better candidate for lynching instead of defending Andy

Quickbeam is who i have voted for. Came hard against Andy very early stating anyone who doesn't vote for him is a suspect. I see that as trying to manipulate the vote and get two munches. I wont get a chance unfortunately to go through his posts in more depth before the lynch as im working but that just jumped out at me straight away.

gufc21

gufc21 wrote: »

Ya im aware of that. I have voted for someone who i believe to be a wolf. I'm not hard against Andy as a wolf, i just don't think we have to kill him. There's no rush to kill him at all. There are no special powers for wolves in this game so leave him there. The only people i think that have to kill him is the other wolf team and Hans. Let them do it. Its another voice in the back room weeding them out. Yes our seer is at risk but i don't think they will be giving much away at this point anyway.

And from your earlier posts, of course you take an enemy out when you have the chance. Especially now. What is it 20/1 you hit a particular rolled good guy or guaranteed you hit an enemy wolf or a priest. Madness not to take him out

At random we are a favorite to lynch a villager, Andy has the most evidence against him lynching someone else who you think is less likely to be a wolf is a bad idea. The rush to kill Andy is that he is the most likely wolf and we risk lynching a villager instead or worse a rolled player.

The wolves know there own teams anyone they take out is a plus for them some bigger pluses then others. The village is the only team that can have a negative effect on thier own team and risking a high % ww kill over something much smaller or random isnt good

Pawwed Rig

dottie_lottie wrote: »

There are two wolf teams competing against each other so in theory, andy and tigger could both be wolves and not know that the other is but suspect it. Each wolf team has to also wipe out the other to win (in addition to the village)

Ah yeah but they are surely sharing info? If they end up wiping each other out then it might be an easy win for us so would it not make sense to run the munches by each other to ensure there are as few of the rest of us left as possible before turning on each other?

quickbeam

Here's another thought - why do some people (the Andy supporters) say that Andy would be a stupid choice for an Alpha because he'd not survive long? Now that I'm home I have searched back:
WWV - survived to the end
WWIV - (didn't play)
WWIII - Lynched, but survived until the end of Day Three
WWII - Munched, but survived until Day Four

I didn't play WWI so don't have records.

The point being, Andy would have been a great member to have on your team, this or any game. Even when he dies, like in WWIII, he departs with great advice to his team-mate, which very nearly caused Barney to win the game for his team. It's a compliment Andy. I know I've been on your case all day, but I'd want you on my team, and if I was Alpha I'd definitely have chosen you. I called you a "super strategist" in my reasons, and I stand by that.

y0ssar1an22

quickbeam wrote: »

Here's another thought - why do some people (the Andy supporters) say that Andy would be a stupid choice for an Alpha because he'd not survive long? Now that I'm home I have searched back:
WWV - survived to the end
WWIV - (didn't play)
WWIII - Lynched, but survived until the end of Day Three
WWII - Munched, but survived until Day Four

I didn't play WWI so don't have records.

The point being, Andy would have been a great member to have on your team, this or any game. Even when he dies, like in WWIII, he departs with great advice to his team-mate, which very nearly caused Barney to win the game for his team. It's a compliment Andy. I know I've been on your case all day, but I'd want you on my team, and if I was Alpha I'd definitely have chosen you. I called you a "super strategist" in my reasons, and I stand by that.

that right there. if you were alpha and picking your team would you have picked andy? you may want him on your team, but he's such an obvious choice he wouldn't last long.
because of that i believe people would not have picked andy on their team

y0ssar1an22

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

that right there. if you were alpha and picking your team would you have picked andy? you may want him on your team, but he's such an obvious choice he wouldn't last long.
because of that i believe people would not have picked andy on their team

i certainly would not have picked him and believe most others would reach the same conclusion

quickbeam

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

that right there. if you were alpha and picking your team would you have picked andy? you may want him on your team, but he's such an obvious choice he wouldn't last long.
because of that i believe people would not have picked andy on their team

Yes, I would. Why do you assume that the 20 or so players who said they'd pick him too must all be lying?

Guffy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

At random we are a favorite to lynch a villager, Andy has the most evidence against him lynching someone else who you think is less likely to be a wolf is a bad idea. The rush to kill Andy is that he is the most likely wolf and we risk lynching a villager instead or worse a rolled player.

The wolves know there own teams anyone they take out is a plus for them some bigger pluses then others. The village is the only team that can have a negative effect on thier own team and risking a high % ww kill over something much smaller or random isnt good

Does hans have a kill tomorrow? If so there are 4 possible kills. The odds of 4 different picks go up significanlty if we lynch andy.

quickbeam

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

i certainly would not have picked him and believe most others would reach the same conclusion

But that's plainly not true. Most others reached a different conclusion.

Hard to fathom why you can't see what's plainly in the thread, tbh.

quickbeam

gufc21 wrote: »

Does hans have a kill tomorrow? If so there are 4 possible kills. The odds of 4 different picks go up significanlty if we lynch andy.

Hey my old buddy

Hans kills tonight, along with the lynch. So two kills tonight (a lynch and a Hans murder) and two kills in the morning (one from each wolf team).

y0ssar1an22

quickbeam wrote: »

Yes, I would. Why do you assume that the 20 or so players who said they'd pick him too must all be lying?

i'm not saying their lying. i would want andy on my team too. because of that, it makes him an obvious pick, making him a prime candidate for lynching as an obvious pick for alpha, making me not pick him.

that was my thought process when i did this exercise yesterday. i discounted tigger, andy and mick

Triceratops Ballet

quickbeam wrote: »

Hey my old buddy

Hans kills tonight, along with the lynch. So two kills tonight (a lynch and a Hans murder) and two kills in the morning (one from each wolf team).

HG's kills start on turn 2, so i figured that as tomorrow night

Guffy

quickbeam wrote: »

Hey my old buddy

Hans kills tonight, along with the lynch. So two kills tonight (a lynch and a Hans murder) and two kills in the morning (one from each wolf team).

Darn

dottie_lottie

dottie_lottie wrote: »

HG's kills start on turn 2, so i figured that as tomorrow night

Interesting I thought it would be tonight also

Lynch form working

Triceratops Ballet

Deleted User wrote: »

Interesting I thought it would be tonight also

I thought each turn started with the munch?

quickbeam

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

i'm not saying their lying. i would want andy on my team too. because of that, it makes him an obvious pick, making him a prime candidate for lynching as an obvious pick for alpha, making me not pick him.

that was my thought process when i did this exercise yesterday. i discounted tigger, andy and mick

And like I said to Andy, that's a legitimate strategy. But more people have said they'd take a different strategy, take the risk and have Andy on their team. Ergo, Andy was *probably* picked for a wolf team, and his posts today almost certainly confirm that he was.

dottie_lottie

dottie_lottie wrote: »

I thought each turn started with the munch?

No your right, just before serial killer got the kill with the wolfs so we prob need this confirmed too

quickbeam

dottie_lottie wrote: »

HG's kills start on turn 2, so i figured that as tomorrow night

I stand corrected. Re-read the OP. Was such a long day I forgot we were still only on Day 1. Sorry all for any confusion.

But I was right than Hans' kills come with the lynch

y0ssar1an22

quickbeam wrote: »

And like I said to Andy, that's a legitimate strategy. But more people have said they'd take a different strategy, take the risk and have Andy on their team. Ergo, Andy was *probably* picked for a wolf team, and his posts today almost certainly confirm that he was.

i can see where you're all coming from, but as its a choice i would not make i'm finding it difficult to reconcile with my own ideas.

can you see my point that lynching andy tonight is not the only option open to us?
if he is the priest, great. if he was lying, then he's a wolf or hans gruber. i think either way the other baddies will take him out. therefore why should we waste our lynch?

if someone can present to me a reasonable theory as to why the other baddies not not take him out that would be great.

crosstownk

I've said this before and I'll say it again. If so many (myself included) are so suspicious of Andy being a wolf, why are some suggesting letting him off the hook tonight and giving him and his wolf buddies another day to plan.

Surely we should reduce the wolf numbers? Have missed something?

quickbeam

Ah c'mon Yoss. Mick and I already gave reasons why we can't leave it to the other baddies

Triceratops Ballet

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

if someone can present to me a reasonable theory as to why the other baddies not not take him out that would be great.

this came up in a previous game and whoever the wolves were that time said they thought all the talk of of "oh the other team will get him" was hilarious as they had no intention of doing that, but it made for a good distraction for the village that day so noone was looking at them.

y0ssar1an22

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

i can see where you're all coming from, but as its a choice i would not make i'm finding it difficult to reconcile with my own ideas.

can you see my point that lynching andy tonight is not the only option open to us?
if he is the priest, great. if he was lying, then he's a wolf or hans gruber. i think either way the other baddies will take him out. therefore why should we waste our lynch?

if someone can present to me a reasonable theory as to why the other baddies not not take him out that would be great.

You could look at it the other way why would the wolfs waste a munch when the village have to deal with a wolf in the village causing confusion. The only way we could confirm Andy by keeping him alive is have both seers peek him and come out which is a major non runner.

Baddies not killinh him leaves us having this conversation day after day untill we finally do lynch him and havent done much else. Its a best a major distraction for us. we are were we are and need to act accordingly

crosstownk

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

if someone can present to me a reasonable theory as to why the other baddies not not take him out that would be great.

They may decide to just leave him there knowing that in another turn or two the village will lynch him unless, in the meantime, he proves his claim - at which point the wolves will then take him out anyway.

A Neurotic

Haz wolf. Lynch wolf. Basic principles. Seriously.